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Author Topic: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Werewolves Win!)  (Read 156956 times)

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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #900 on: May 29, 2014, 04:59:20 pm »

I get a very strong scum vibe off of WW. He is my preferred lynch over Axxle who is also suspicious to me, as well. However, I think WW is more likely scum or even possibly they are both scum.

What is suspicious about Axxle to you?

The fact that he seems to be posting very little D2. And, while I initially thought it was likely he picked Governor, I also think he may have thought that discarding Mountebank may have been more likely to have given him a scummy role if he had Nobles in his hand. Regardless, it is a 50/50 shot that Axxle is scum.

How could that (bolded part) be true?

What's the probability that a generic player that is still alive is scum?
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #901 on: May 29, 2014, 05:02:05 pm »

I get a very strong scum vibe off of WW. He is my preferred lynch over Axxle who is also suspicious to me, as well. However, I think WW is more likely scum or even possibly they are both scum.

What is suspicious about Axxle to you?

The fact that he seems to be posting very little D2. And, while I initially thought it was likely he picked Governor, I also think he may have thought that discarding Mountebank may have been more likely to have given him a scummy role if he had Nobles in his hand. Regardless, it is a 50/50 shot that Axxle is scum.

How could that (bolded part) be true?

What's the probability that a generic player that is still alive is scum?

I arrived at the conclusion because that was my line of reasoning. Initially, before the roles were reshuffled, I discarded King's Court thinking the other card would be more powerful, which actually ended up not being the case at all. And, as it is, we know there are two Governors, so that gives Axxle a 50% chance at being scum.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #902 on: May 29, 2014, 05:04:11 pm »

Vote: Axxle

I feel like he's flying under the radar. He sort of disappeared after Governing his own lynch, which isn't how I feel a town Governor would play it. Town Governor would get more involved after that. Scum Governor would lie low and hope that the momentum required to get his lynch going again would be enough to stop it from actually happening.

RE: people who are actually posting- I would be okay lynching BA. I also didn't consider the possibility, I think pointed out by WW, that Ichi is a scum lover and is telling the truth that he doesn't have partners. That's the perfect claiming situation for scum, since they know they won't be counterclaimed, and provides the perfect fallback, which would allow him to put himself out there as much as he has this game. So I think I would be okay going back to an Ichi lynch too.
As an observation. I think it's worth noting that ADK has gotten almost zero suspicion and has avoided attention almost entirely. I don't get a particularly scummy feeling from him, but I felt the same in HoC when he was scum. I didn't actually know the rules about lovers, but now I understand them I think.

That's what makes it an interesting role if you actually have partners, because your fellow lover(s) could be of different alignments right?

Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #903 on: May 29, 2014, 05:10:41 pm »

I arrived at the conclusion because that was my line of reasoning. Initially, before the roles were reshuffled, I discarded King's Court thinking the other card would be more powerful, which actually ended up not being the case at all. And, as it is, we know there are two Governors, so that gives Axxle a 50% chance at being scum.

Oh, you mean you thought your role was some combination of what you discarded and what you kept, instead of a 1-1 correspondence with the card you kept?

I could see that, but I don't see why you would think Axxle would think that, since Axxle came out with a pretty clear knowledge of how this setup worked.  He even justified his reason for keeping Governor, so he was clearly thinking what the kept card means in terms of the role.

And to the other point, I was asking you: We have 11 players alive.  Pick one randomly.  What's the chance he's scum?

Obviously we don't know, but it's probably bigger than 50%.  This should indicate that (1) Someone that is 50/50 is *more likely* to be town than the average player, and (2) Axxle (and Scott P who is in the same boat) should be more likely to be scum than 50%.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #904 on: May 29, 2014, 05:18:09 pm »

I arrived at the conclusion because that was my line of reasoning. Initially, before the roles were reshuffled, I discarded King's Court thinking the other card would be more powerful, which actually ended up not being the case at all. And, as it is, we know there are two Governors, so that gives Axxle a 50% chance at being scum.

Oh, you mean you thought your role was some combination of what you discarded and what you kept, instead of a 1-1 correspondence with the card you kept?

I could see that, but I don't see why you would think Axxle would think that, since Axxle came out with a pretty clear knowledge of how this setup worked.  He even justified his reason for keeping Governor, so he was clearly thinking what the kept card means in terms of the role.

And to the other point, I was asking you: We have 11 players alive.  Pick one randomly.  What's the chance he's scum?

Obviously we don't know, but it's probably bigger than 50%.  This should indicate that (1) Someone that is 50/50 is *more likely* to be town than the average player, and (2) Axxle (and Scott P who is in the same boat) should be more likely to be scum than 50%.

Yes, that was what I was saying. And, I did not know that Axxle had a better idea of how the setup worked. Well, that changes things for me. In that case, I think it is much more likely that he chose to keep Governor rather than Nobles.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #905 on: May 29, 2014, 05:22:28 pm »

However, I do think that this conversation is you trying to deflect my instincts about you being scum and try to change my opinion of you.

Vote: WW
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #906 on: May 29, 2014, 05:26:54 pm »

However, I do think that this conversation is you trying to deflect my instincts about you being scum and try to change my opinion of you.

Vote: WW

Nope, it's me questioning your casual throwing in of Axxle as a scum read along with me for no justifiable reason.  (Oh, except that someone else brought him up before.  Remember the sheeping thing?)
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #907 on: May 29, 2014, 05:28:07 pm »

As an observation. I think it's worth noting that ADK has gotten almost zero suspicion and has avoided attention almost entirely.

See, it's stuff like this that give me a scum read on you. It's like you're fishing around and testing the waters, trying to put something out there and see if someone else will bite. It's the "I'm okay with any lynch but me" mentality.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #908 on: May 29, 2014, 05:29:51 pm »

However, I do think that this conversation is you trying to deflect my instincts about you being scum and try to change my opinion of you.

Vote: WW

It's also worth noting that there is nothing for me to deflect since you say anything about me other than your vibe.  If you had made a case, and then I had started talking about everything but the substance of that case, then I could be deflecting.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #909 on: May 29, 2014, 05:30:29 pm »

Typo: since you didn't say anything about me other than your vibe
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AndrewisFTTW

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #910 on: May 29, 2014, 08:01:41 pm »

Vote Count 2.6

Ichimaru Gin (2): Archetype, Witherweaver
EgorK (1): Nik
Axxle (2): Ichimaru Gin, A Drowned Kernal
Beyond Awesome (2): Voltaire, XerxesPraelor
XerxesPraelor (1): Axxle
Witherweaver (1): Beyond Awesome

Not Voting (2): EgorK, scott_pilgrim

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.
Day 2 ends on Monday June 2 at 9:30 PM FT. Please note: mail-mi will be going to Spain around the 4th or 5th. AndrewisFTTW will be the official mod from then until about June 15th or 16th.
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Archetype

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #911 on: May 29, 2014, 10:36:55 pm »

Hey guys. Been sort of busy and had to manage my time on f.ds. Since the deadline for this one is later, its at the bottom of my list.

I could lynch Ichimaru, scott_pilgrim, or Axxle. Ichimaru for reasons stated previously and scott/Axxle because they have a 50/50 chance at flipping scum. I still need to reread those two to figure out which it is.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #912 on: May 29, 2014, 10:38:31 pm »

I could lynch Ichimaru, scott_pilgrim, or Axxle. Ichimaru for reasons stated previously and scott/Axxle because they have a 50/50 chance at flipping scum. I still need to reread those two to figure out which it is.

This is a very D1 list. Have you read D2 yet?
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #913 on: May 30, 2014, 12:43:24 am »

I just wanted everyone to know that I had a chance to look over on the mafia wiki. It was down for the past few days, and so now I read up on a few roles and realized that I misunderstood a few things. First, I was inferring some of the roles based on chat on here. So, I looked up joths and SPs roles and realized what took place and that joth investigated Volt getting the result Not Mafia which is not saying much since it is likely he can be some other form of scum. For some reason, I thought people were arguing whether or not volt could give a false reading. Sorry guys. Anyway, with that said, I would say that it stands to reason that joths results don't say much about volt, so he can very well likely be scum.

Anyway, now that the wiki is up, I have a much, much better idea of roles and all that type of stuff. So, I am now a much better informed player.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #914 on: May 30, 2014, 01:26:56 am »

I just wanted everyone to know that I had a chance to look over on the mafia wiki. It was down for the past few days, and so now I read up on a few roles and realized that I misunderstood a few things. First, I was inferring some of the roles based on chat on here. So, I looked up joths and SPs roles and realized what took place and that joth investigated Volt getting the result Not Mafia which is not saying much since it is likely he can be some other form of scum. For some reason, I thought people were arguing whether or not volt could give a false reading. Sorry guys. Anyway, with that said, I would say that it stands to reason that joths results don't say much about volt, so he can very well likely be scum.

Anyway, now that the wiki is up, I have a much, much better idea of roles and all that type of stuff. So, I am now a much better informed player.
There was a bit of that talk. Someone mentioned the "Alien Psychotrooper (While alive, all cops with 'guilty/not guilty' format results are Insane)". I think it's safe to assume he doesn't exist unless he flips though.
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EgorK

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #915 on: May 30, 2014, 01:49:53 am »

Really sorry guys. We have release shortly so I had little time for reread and not ready to commit lunching anyone before analyzing all interaction with flips on day 1, through I am itching to vote BA based on what he did lately

I will surely catch up during weekend and provide my reads here
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EgorK

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #916 on: May 30, 2014, 01:50:32 am »

And to the other point, I was asking you: We have 11 players alive.  Pick one randomly.  What's the chance he's scum?

Obviously we don't know, but it's probably bigger than 50%.  This should indicate that (1) Someone that is 50/50 is *more likely* to be town than the average player, and (2) Axxle (and Scott P who is in the same boat) should be more likely to be scum than 50%.

Mathematically speaking it is not true. Please note I do not talk about Axxle in particular here, just about math

So let's imagine experiment: we first put marked white ball in the box with probability 50% otherwise we would put marked black ball, and then add some unmarked balls so that there is total 8 white and 8 black balls. Then we close box, take away 5 balls at random and they all happen to be unmarked balls. What is the probability that random marked ball is white now? Well, it is not 50%. It is actually the same as for random ball, not necessarily marked. That is difference between apriori and aposteriori probabilities

We do not deal with completely random events here so this should be taken with the grain of salt. It just my pet peeve when people talking about probabilities without actually contemplating what math would say
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #917 on: May 30, 2014, 02:15:24 am »

It is still 50%, unless you meant that the other ones we know are all White or something.
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EgorK

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #918 on: May 30, 2014, 02:18:08 am »

It is still 50%, unless you meant that the other ones we know are all White or something.

Sorry, yes, unmarked white balls of course
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #919 on: May 30, 2014, 02:33:17 am »

Guys, this is not a probability game, it's a social one.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #920 on: May 30, 2014, 02:59:59 am »

Town is now "unmarked white balls"? That's just wrong...

Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #921 on: May 30, 2014, 09:43:50 am »

And to the other point, I was asking you: We have 11 players alive.  Pick one randomly.  What's the chance he's scum?

Obviously we don't know, but it's probably bigger than 50%.  This should indicate that (1) Someone that is 50/50 is *more likely* to be town than the average player, and (2) Axxle (and Scott P who is in the same boat) should be more likely to be scum than 50%.

Mathematically speaking it is not true. Please note I do not talk about Axxle in particular here, just about math

So let's imagine experiment: we first put marked white ball in the box with probability 50% otherwise we would put marked black ball, and then add some unmarked balls so that there is total 8 white and 8 black balls. Then we close box, take away 5 balls at random and they all happen to be unmarked balls. What is the probability that random marked ball is white now? Well, it is not 50%. It is actually the same as for random ball, not necessarily marked. That is difference between apriori and aposteriori probabilities

We do not deal with completely random events here so this should be taken with the grain of salt. It just my pet peeve when people talking about probabilities without actually contemplating what math would say

Thanks for the convenient way of thinking of it.  But this doesn't contradict what I said, right?  I said that the chance that an arbitrary one of is is town is (likely) less than 1/2. So if someone is (currently) 50/50, that actually suggests that you should be more inclined to think them town, not scum, if you're basing on probabilities (which you shouldn't).  Axxle and SP shouldn't be thought of as 50/50 given the new information, because they have a greater than 50/50 chance to be scum (according to the thought experiment, the same as any of us). 

My intuition did tell me that if, previously, the 50/50 people were more likely to be scum than an arbitrary one of us, then after the new information that we had, they would still be more likely than an arbitrary one of us.  Though my intuition on probability is always wrong.  But that's still not important to the point I was making.

The point I was making was that BA's reason for suspecting Axxle was very weak, which is relevant because (a) Someone just previously voted for Axxle, and (b) BA was previously called out for sheeping while providing shaky justification.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #922 on: May 30, 2014, 10:37:38 am »

the case against Axxle is that he has acted more like a mafia governor than a scum governor -- using his power to save himself and not much else.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #923 on: May 30, 2014, 10:39:05 am »

the case against Axxle is that he has acted more like a mafia governor than a scum governor -- using his power to save himself and not much else.

I assume you mean town, but I agree.

C'mon, everyone who was willing to put IG at L-1 - let's do that to BA! Or Axxle! Or WW! (in that order I think)
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #924 on: May 30, 2014, 10:43:18 am »

the case against Axxle is that he has acted more like a mafia governor than a scum governor -- using his power to save himself and not much else.

He was put in a tough spot though. I can't really say I blame him.
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