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Author Topic: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Werewolves Win!)  (Read 21714 times)

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chairs

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #725 on: May 24, 2014, 01:24:33 pm »

Yes; it's just that ICs can't help very much except for giving honest reads. More importantly, can he use his cop power still and report the results? That would be really useful, I think.

Im pretty sure I can't cop anymore. So I have exactly one result. It's a "not mafia" result. Do people want to hear it?

I can't think of a reason not to.  So yes.

I think we should be careful; given that the Greater Idea deck has opportunities to investigate other scum factions, and it looks like we -have- other scum factions, "not mafia" may not be the same as "not scum".  I'm not saying it's a bad idea, just that we need to be wary of treating anyone who's "not mafia" as an IC.

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #726 on: May 24, 2014, 01:28:39 pm »

Yes; it's just that ICs can't help very much except for giving honest reads. More importantly, can he use his cop power still and report the results? That would be really useful, I think.

Im pretty sure I can't cop anymore. So I have exactly one result. It's a "not mafia" result. Do people want to hear it?

I can't think of a reason not to.  So yes.

I think we should be careful; given that the Greater Idea deck has opportunities to investigate other scum factions, and it looks like we -have- other scum factions, "not mafia" may not be the same as "not scum".  I'm not saying it's a bad idea, just that we need to be wary of treating anyone who's "not mafia" as an IC.

Right, we can't assume his target is town, but I can't think of a reason for him not to list the result. 
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #727 on: May 24, 2014, 01:33:37 pm »

Yes; it's just that ICs can't help very much except for giving honest reads. More importantly, can he use his cop power still and report the results? That would be really useful, I think.

Im pretty sure I can't cop anymore. So I have exactly one result. It's a "not mafia" result. Do people want to hear it?

I can't think of a reason not to.  So yes.

I think we should be careful; given that the Greater Idea deck has opportunities to investigate other scum factions, and it looks like we -have- other scum factions, "not mafia" may not be the same as "not scum".  I'm not saying it's a bad idea, just that we need to be wary of treating anyone who's "not mafia" as an IC.
Wait. So a "not mafia" result would include members from other factions like werewolves, aliens, etc?

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #728 on: May 24, 2014, 01:34:14 pm »

Are we guaranteed that all the "Mafia" roles in the deck are the same faction of Mafia?
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #729 on: May 24, 2014, 01:34:56 pm »

Yes; it's just that ICs can't help very much except for giving honest reads. More importantly, can he use his cop power still and report the results? That would be really useful, I think.

Im pretty sure I can't cop anymore. So I have exactly one result. It's a "not mafia" result. Do people want to hear it?

I can't think of a reason not to.  So yes.

I think we should be careful; given that the Greater Idea deck has opportunities to investigate other scum factions, and it looks like we -have- other scum factions, "not mafia" may not be the same as "not scum".  I'm not saying it's a bad idea, just that we need to be wary of treating anyone who's "not mafia" as an IC.
Wait. So a "not mafia" result would include members from other factions like werewolves, aliens, etc?

Yeah.. I'm pretty sure SK, Survivor are in that etc.  Anything that is not Mafia.
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #730 on: May 24, 2014, 01:41:52 pm »

It was pretty awesome to log in for deadline and see that derphammer, I've got to say.

That's effectively four nightkills, and treestumping means we have an alien faction. They might have used their one kill last night though. Do you have anything useful for us, Joth?

Only treestumping ability is:

Alien Bloodsucker (Treestump someone at night. No Alien may perform the factional nightkill on the same night that you do this)

So it's true there is an Alien faction, and they still have one night kill.  So 3 kills beyond Alien.  It does seem possible to have more than one SK.  But based on number of roles on the list, Mafia, Werewolf, Sk/Vig is probably the most likely. 

This all makes the chance that Scott Pilgrim and Axxle are the Town versions of their roles less likely.  Much less likely I think.  (Assuming SP was telling the truth about having a Watcher role.)

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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #731 on: May 24, 2014, 03:27:15 pm »

This all makes the chance that Scott Pilgrim and Axxle are the Town versions of their roles less likely.  Much less likely I think.  (Assuming SP was telling the truth about having a Watcher role.)

How so?
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #732 on: May 24, 2014, 03:55:05 pm »

This all makes the chance that Scott Pilgrim and Axxle are the Town versions of their roles less likely.  Much less likely I think.  (Assuming SP was telling the truth about having a Watcher role.)

How so?

Because there are less possible town spots.  If it was x/16 chance they were town (unconditional), it's now (x-4)/16 (conditional only on knowing 4 confirmed town).

Well that part is still true whether SP told truth or not. 
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #733 on: May 24, 2014, 04:25:15 pm »

That is the most manipulative statistics I've seen in a long time. All it means is that *anyone* is more likely to be scum now.
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #734 on: May 24, 2014, 04:25:59 pm »

Scott, claim your results as soon as you post.
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #735 on: May 24, 2014, 04:27:38 pm »

I watched Voltaire, and got no result.
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #736 on: May 24, 2014, 04:29:00 pm »

I watched Voltaire, and got no result.

Uh, sorry got "nobody", not sure if that's the same thing
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #737 on: May 24, 2014, 04:37:59 pm »

That is the most manipulative statistics I've seen in a long time. All it means is that *anyone* is more likely to be scum now.

Well yeah, but I think 50/50 was already a greater chance than the uninformed probability of being scum.
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #738 on: May 24, 2014, 05:07:48 pm »

Ok, I also investigated Voltaire. This seems pretty close to clearing him.
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #739 on: May 24, 2014, 05:18:32 pm »

Ok, I also investigated Voltaire. This seems pretty close to clearing him.
Except S_P could be (and perhaps likely) is lying. With that many nightkills happening, I find it difficult that at least one person or scum faction wouldn't have picked S_P as a nightkill. Especially with a role that powerful, which has the potential to out other town PR's and members of any/all scum factions.
So it's actually really confusing to me--regardless of alignment--that S_P is still alive.

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #740 on: May 24, 2014, 05:23:05 pm »

Doesn't Watcher get the result of who target the person? S_P should have gotten Joth as his result if Joth investigated Voltaire.
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #741 on: May 24, 2014, 05:27:25 pm »

And if he had been blocked he would have gotten "no result" not "nobody".

Vote: Scott
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #742 on: May 24, 2014, 05:29:40 pm »

Doesn't Watcher get the result of who target the person? S_P should have gotten Joth as his result if Joth investigated Voltaire.
And if he had been blocked he would have gotten "no result" not "nobody".

Vote: Scott
Excellent points ADK.

vote: Scott
I had a hard time seeing the wagon on him D1, and I still think it was pretty flimsy at that point. However, this reads like a total slip revealing either that he's scum and lying, or has fakeclaimed.

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #743 on: May 24, 2014, 05:32:07 pm »

Doesn't Watcher get the result of who target the person? S_P should have gotten Joth as his result if Joth investigated Voltaire.
Yes.

vote: scott
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #744 on: May 24, 2014, 05:37:17 pm »

Thread Locked
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #745 on: May 24, 2014, 05:40:15 pm »

There were some mod mistakes made last night. They are in the process of being fixed.

In the meantime, Thread Unlocked
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #746 on: May 24, 2014, 05:42:36 pm »

Mmm. So Scott may be innocent on that account.

Town read on ADK; from his behavior D1 and now, I feel pretty sure that he's town.

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #747 on: May 24, 2014, 05:45:46 pm »

unvote
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #748 on: May 24, 2014, 05:46:58 pm »

Vote Count 2.1

scott_pilgrim (2): A Drowned Kernel, Ichimaru Gin

Not Voting (9): EgorK, XerxesPraelor, Beyond Awesome, Axxle, Nik, WW, scott_pilgrim, Voltaire, Archetype

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.
Day 2 ends on Monday June 2 at 9:30 PM FT. Please note: I will be going to Spain around the 4th or 5th. AndrewisFTTW will be the official mod from then until about June 15th or 16th.

Archetype has replaced chairs. 
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #749 on: May 24, 2014, 05:51:05 pm »

unvote

I don't know that a "nobody" result on Voltaire (or a "joth" result) clears Voltaire, though. It just lets us know that no one bothered targeting him, which might make it more likely that he's scum (scum aren't going to be targeting their partners). Also, since we have confirmed aliens, we should remember that one of the possible alien abilities reverses all cop results, so that's a thing.
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