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Author Topic: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Werewolves Win!)  (Read 157027 times)

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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #625 on: May 21, 2014, 03:12:37 pm »

I would strongly caution against going after a totally new person at this point in the day! We already outed a good PR. We don't want to accidentally out another one, or accidentally lynch one who doesn't have time to claim or doesn't check in.

I think vote: Nik is a lot better.

Did the mafia get fakeclaims in this game? Pretty rough on them if they didn't, since we have a complete list of cards which correspond to role and alignment.

What makes you think Nik is less likely than anyone else to be a PR ?

He's an existing wagon. If he's a PR he's checking in at least, and will have a chance to claim before he's lynched. I worry we pick a totally new person, they don't even check in before deadline, we lynch the cop. That's the scenario I want to avoid.
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #626 on: May 21, 2014, 03:13:03 pm »

Watcher is somewhat easy to disprove, and not the role scum is the most worried about (that would be their faction specific Cop), so I don't think it's extremely likely that this is a fakeclaim. Even if it is, catching him in a lie shouldn't be too hard.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #627 on: May 21, 2014, 03:13:13 pm »

vote count? cause I have no idea at this point.

I think Scott is still bad lynch. Is it worth it to lose a PR like that?

Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #628 on: May 21, 2014, 03:14:29 pm »

Joth makes a good point...and I think the odds a faction exists, and a town faction cop for that role also exists, is pretty low, right?
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xeiron

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #629 on: May 21, 2014, 03:15:49 pm »

Wait a minute. There are 139 roles in this game.

Which is more likely? We happened to randomly pick "the strongest role in mafia" as our lurker lynch? or we picked an anti-town player and he claimed the role that would keep him alive?

Even without a mod-supplied fakeclaim, with 122 roles to choose from* and only 15 possible counterclaims, he had an 87.7 percent chance of going uncounterclaimed. Even in the other case, he outs a powerful role for his team.

Why are we all buying this? vote: scott

*139-16 discards-his own actual role

We are buying it because it is (sort of) confirmable. We can leave him alive today, and then on a later day have him claim who he watched. If he is town, he should get some results. If he is lying, we will find out and lych him later. 
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #630 on: May 21, 2014, 03:19:11 pm »

This should be up to date :

Nik (5): scott_pilgrim, Axxle, Beyond Awesome, Ichimaru Gin, XerxesPraelor
Robz888 (4): chairs, Teproc, Voltaire, xeiron
scott_pilgrim (4): A Drowned Kernal, Twistedarcher, Egork, jotheonah
chairs (1): Nik

Not voting (2) : Witherweaver, Robz
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #631 on: May 21, 2014, 03:19:50 pm »

vote count? cause I have no idea at this point.

I think Scott is still bad lynch. Is it worth it to lose a PR like that?

But if he's the actual Watcher, isn't he dead either way?
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #632 on: May 21, 2014, 03:24:58 pm »

vote count? cause I have no idea at this point.

I think Scott is still bad lynch. Is it worth it to lose a PR like that?

But if he's the actual Watcher, isn't he dead either way?
Likely. So if he survives the night, he'll look more suspicious tomorrow. But then we could lynch him as a PR today, which would be undoubtedly worse in my mind.

Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #633 on: May 21, 2014, 03:26:04 pm »

Sorry guys, but what does the Watcher do? Also, what does PR mean and PPE?
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #634 on: May 21, 2014, 03:26:38 pm »

vote count? cause I have no idea at this point.

I think Scott is still bad lynch. Is it worth it to lose a PR like that?

But if he's the actual Watcher, isn't he dead either way?

Yeah there's a good chance, but maybe we have a doc or RB or multiple scum factions WIFOM each other and all assume someone else will kill me.  If you 100% knew I were Watcher you obv. wouldn't kill me, because a random lynch and then a me NK is better than a me lynch and then a non-X NK for some scum faction X.  Of course if I keep surviving and you find that worthy of lynching me that's fine, nothing I can do about that, but at least you'll have my results then.
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xeiron

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #635 on: May 21, 2014, 03:27:39 pm »

vote count? cause I have no idea at this point.

I think Scott is still bad lynch. Is it worth it to lose a PR like that?

But if he's the actual Watcher, isn't he dead either way?

Which of the scumteams do you think will kill him?

If all of them do, thats great!
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #636 on: May 21, 2014, 03:28:27 pm »

vote: Robz

I think we can make it happen.  I'm gone until deadline so my vote's not moving.  Again, sorry about my absence everyone and that it outed an important PR, but there wasn't anything I could do about it.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #637 on: May 21, 2014, 03:32:44 pm »

Sorry guys, but what does the Watcher do? Also, what does PR mean and PPE?
Watcher targets a person at night and finds out who else targeted that person.

PR means Power Role, basically any role that has actions.

PPE is Prepreview Edit. Sometimes people post between when you start the post and when you finish it.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #638 on: May 21, 2014, 03:33:27 pm »

Robz showed up and posted/said non-weighty things, so that makes me feel pretty good about this as a backup still.

I guess leaving SP alive does make sense.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #639 on: May 21, 2014, 03:35:52 pm »

Sorry guys, but what does the Watcher do? Also, what does PR mean and PPE?
Watcher targets a person at night and finds out who else targeted that person.

PR means Power Role, basically any role that has actions.

PPE is Prepreview Edit. Sometimes people post between when you start the post and when you finish it.

Thanks. Also, what does NK mean.

Anyway, I was never sold on SP being scum. I am also not sold on RobZ being scum either. I feel more confident with Nik at this point.
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xeiron

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #640 on: May 21, 2014, 03:39:46 pm »

Sorry guys, but what does the Watcher do? Also, what does PR mean and PPE?
Watcher targets a person at night and finds out who else targeted that person.

PR means Power Role, basically any role that has actions.

PPE is Prepreview Edit. Sometimes people post between when you start the post and when you finish it.

Thanks. Also, what does NK mean.

Anyway, I was never sold on SP being scum. I am also not sold on RobZ being scum either. I feel more confident with Nik at this point.

NK = nightkill - mafia, werewolf and serial killers can kill someone every night.
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #641 on: May 21, 2014, 03:44:02 pm »

Robz showed up and posted/said non-weighty things, so that makes me feel pretty good about this as a backup still.

I guess leaving SP alive does make sense.

I just couldn't think of anything to say. And, come on, this is me, obviously if I were scum I would be talking like crazy to not get lynched. It's much easier to make things up than say true, valuable, real things. Like, I was thinking of writing something about how I don't think you, Voltaire, as town, would actually push for me at this point with intent to kill, but then I deleted it, because hey, maybe you would.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #642 on: May 21, 2014, 03:44:58 pm »

Sorry guys, but what does the Watcher do? Also, what does PR mean and PPE?
Watcher targets a person at night and finds out who else targeted that person.

PR means Power Role, basically any role that has actions.

PPE is Prepreview Edit. Sometimes people post between when you start the post and when you finish it.

Thanks. Also, what does NK mean.

Anyway, I was never sold on SP being scum. I am also not sold on RobZ being scum either. I feel more confident with Nik at this point.

Same here.
So Robz was disinterested and hasn't posted much. He has a new job right? Why do we keep trying to lynch claimed PR's and people with real life excuses?

Teproc

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #643 on: May 21, 2014, 03:47:23 pm »

Sorry guys, but what does the Watcher do? Also, what does PR mean and PPE?
Watcher targets a person at night and finds out who else targeted that person.

PR means Power Role, basically any role that has actions.

PPE is Prepreview Edit. Sometimes people post between when you start the post and when you finish it.

Thanks. Also, what does NK mean.

Anyway, I was never sold on SP being scum. I am also not sold on RobZ being scum either. I feel more confident with Nik at this point.

Same here.
So Robz was disinterested and hasn't posted much. He has a new job right? Why do we keep trying to lynch claimed PR's and people with real life excuses?

Personally I'm null on RObz but lean town on Nik and S_P, so Robz is the best of the available choices.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #644 on: May 21, 2014, 03:47:50 pm »

Sorry guys, but what does the Watcher do? Also, what does PR mean and PPE?
Watcher targets a person at night and finds out who else targeted that person.

PR means Power Role, basically any role that has actions.

PPE is Prepreview Edit. Sometimes people post between when you start the post and when you finish it.

Thanks. Also, what does NK mean.

Anyway, I was never sold on SP being scum. I am also not sold on RobZ being scum either. I feel more confident with Nik at this point.
NK is Night Kill referring to mafia's factional kill.

SP is short for scott_pilgrim and RobZ is short for Robz888 :P
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Robz888

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #645 on: May 21, 2014, 03:48:52 pm »

Sorry guys, but what does the Watcher do? Also, what does PR mean and PPE?
Watcher targets a person at night and finds out who else targeted that person.

PR means Power Role, basically any role that has actions.

PPE is Prepreview Edit. Sometimes people post between when you start the post and when you finish it.

Thanks. Also, what does NK mean.

Anyway, I was never sold on SP being scum. I am also not sold on RobZ being scum either. I feel more confident with Nik at this point.

Same here.
So Robz was disinterested and hasn't posted much. He has a new job right? Why do we keep trying to lynch claimed PR's and people with real life excuses?

Sorry, I'm totally hiding behind the new job thing as an excuse. I shouldn't do that. I should do something.

Vote: xeiron, for practically no reason.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #646 on: May 21, 2014, 03:51:01 pm »

Lynching scott today would be really antitown.

I'd prefer nik but robz is within the realm of possibility.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #647 on: May 21, 2014, 03:53:18 pm »

vote: Robz888

too little, too late man

Lynching scott today would be really antitown.

For the record, I completely disagree. We have no reason to believe his claim and every reason not to. But whatever.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #648 on: May 21, 2014, 04:02:56 pm »

vote: Robz888

too little, too late man

Lynching scott today would be really antitown.

For the record, I completely disagree. We have no reason to believe his claim and every reason not to. But whatever.

But just about everyone was null on Scott and was voting for him because he's one of the lurkers and there wasn't a better choice.  You're saying that him claiming a good PR should change null reads to scum reads?
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #649 on: May 21, 2014, 04:05:56 pm »

For the record, I completely disagree. We have no reason to believe his claim and every reason not to. But whatever.
Doesn't matter. His claim is both easy to verify and powerful.
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