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Author Topic: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Werewolves Win!)  (Read 157095 times)

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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #875 on: May 29, 2014, 12:43:41 pm »

Oh, sorry.  But I still don't get the sum greater than town thing.

I legitimately missed the "etc" when I read your post Ichi, but regardless this is the thing I'm not understanding.  So my question is rephrased as "So if (sum of all scumteam cardonalities) > # town, what does that mean"?
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #876 on: May 29, 2014, 12:44:41 pm »

So I'm inclined to believe Ichi's claim, given how risky it would be to have the "no other lovers" bit counterclaimed.

I wouldn't avoid lynching BA just because he's new. Scummy is scummy.

PPE: from what I remember only the "loverizer" group is separate. All other lovers would be in one group, and if ichi's PM specifically says he has no partner, I'm inclined to believe that there aren't any other lovers.

If there are, of course, please come claim and we can lynch Ichi. But I don't think he'd take that risk as scum.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #877 on: May 29, 2014, 12:45:32 pm »

Oh, sorry.  But I still don't get the sum greater than town thing.

I legitimately missed the "etc" when I read your post Ichi, but regardless this is the thing I'm not understanding.  So my question is rephrased as "So if (sum of all scumteam cardonalities) > # town, what does that mean"?
Oh. I see. I meant it as meaning that your comment about someone not hammering me because it seemed scummy was less likely.
e.g. with a scum majority they wouldn't care.

PPE: 1

Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #878 on: May 29, 2014, 12:47:22 pm »

Oh, sorry.  But I still don't get the sum greater than town thing.

I legitimately missed the "etc" when I read your post Ichi, but regardless this is the thing I'm not understanding.  So my question is rephrased as "So if (sum of all scumteam cardonalities) > # town, what does that mean"?
Oh. I see. I meant it as meaning that your comment about someone not hammering me because it seemed scummy was less likely.
e.g. with a scum majority they wouldn't care.

PPE: 1

Right, but what are you suggesting, that different scum factions are working together to get a combined majority over the town?
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #879 on: May 29, 2014, 12:49:40 pm »

So I'm inclined to believe Ichi's claim, given how risky it would be to have the "no other lovers" bit counterclaimed.

I wouldn't avoid lynching BA just because he's new. Scummy is scummy.

PPE: from what I remember only the "loverizer" group is separate. All other lovers would be in one group, and if ichi's PM specifically says he has no partner, I'm inclined to believe that there aren't any other lovers.

If there are, of course, please come claim and we can lynch Ichi. But I don't think he'd take that risk as scum.

If he knows he has no Lovers, then he can safely make this claim as Alien (Lighthouse) or Mafia (Procession) Lover.  However, there are three Chapels and only one of each of Lighthouse and Procession, so 60% town by uninformed chance alone.  Well there are two other Town Lovers, but he wouldn't say he had Chapel if he had one of those.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #880 on: May 29, 2014, 12:50:34 pm »

Oh, sorry.  But I still don't get the sum greater than town thing.

I legitimately missed the "etc" when I read your post Ichi, but regardless this is the thing I'm not understanding.  So my question is rephrased as "So if (sum of all scumteam cardonalities) > # town, what does that mean"?
Oh. I see. I meant it as meaning that your comment about someone not hammering me because it seemed scummy was less likely.
e.g. with a scum majority they wouldn't care.

PPE: 1

Right, but what are you suggesting, that different scum factions are working together to get a combined majority over the town?
Just that if there's a scum majority then it's not like they'd be concerned about looking scummy. I don't think (hope) that this is the case at this point. But if we were to lose another member of town, I'm not sure. Also, yeah, I'm not sure who would even know how many total scum there were, but maybe if one faction were bigger than the others, they'd have a better idea.

PPE: 1

XerxesPraelor

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #881 on: May 29, 2014, 12:51:44 pm »

I wasn't going to hammer IG, even if he didn't claim. I just thought that in such a precarious position, we'd want to have the information in case IG had a result, so that scum wouldn't hammer and deny us the information.

If BA is scummy but new, we can lynch him tomorrow - I don't think we're in that urgent a situation that we need to hit scum for sure today. He might die in the night to other scum teams that see his scumminess, so we'd be wasting our lynch.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #882 on: May 29, 2014, 12:52:50 pm »

I wasn't going to hammer IG, even if he didn't claim. I just thought that in such a precarious position, we'd want to have the information in case IG had a result, so that scum wouldn't hammer and deny us the information.

If BA is scummy but new, we can lynch him tomorrow - I don't think we're in that urgent a situation that we need to hit scum for sure today. He might die in the night to other scum teams that see his scumminess, so we'd be wasting our lynch.

You don't?
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #883 on: May 29, 2014, 01:07:47 pm »

No, especially if as a whole we see who's scummy, because then hopefully scum will shoot eachother.

PPE: I just connected the fact that we're in day two with my reluctance to lynch BA on day 1. I'm actually perfectly okay with lynching him now - the one day grace period is over.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #884 on: May 29, 2014, 01:27:47 pm »

Just woke up. Unvote
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #885 on: May 29, 2014, 01:31:34 pm »

Trust me guys, more than anything, I want us to lynch scum. I was basing my Ichi vote based off what joth said because I trust him more than any player since he is dead. Joth said he wasn't sure about going after a rather inactive player, so that is why I removed my vote on him. And, joth said he felt ichi was scum, so I agreed with joth and listed my reasoning for such. I don't see why agreeing with a dead town member makes me look like scum. I guess maybe my reasoning may have looked a bit scummy, but I was just trying to think things through before making my vote against ich.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #886 on: May 29, 2014, 03:04:45 pm »

How do you feel about his claim?
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #887 on: May 29, 2014, 03:09:47 pm »

Trust me guys, more than anything, I want us to lynch scum. I was basing my Ichi vote based off what joth said because I trust him more than any player since he is dead. Joth said he wasn't sure about going after a rather inactive player, so that is why I removed my vote on him. And, joth said he felt ichi was scum, so I agreed with joth and listed my reasoning for such. I don't see why agreeing with a dead town member makes me look like scum. I guess maybe my reasoning may have looked a bit scummy, but I was just trying to think things through before making my vote against ich.

Because you weren't thinking for yourself! sheeping me just gives you a convenient excuse when someone flips town.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #888 on: May 29, 2014, 03:35:07 pm »

Is this BA's first time? If so I'd prefer to not lynch them today at least.

Why is that at all relevant?

It's only relevant on D1.

Here, catching up.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #889 on: May 29, 2014, 03:39:11 pm »

OK, I think that IG is much more likely town, I now have a reasonably large scum read on WW as this whole thing goes down (driving me, twisting IG's words, the whole looking-at-the-timestamps thing (there's no way town does that, no way at all, town makes those kinds of misrememberings, not scum, it's part of a fake case), and I maintain a large scum read on BA. xp, light town I think?

A-ok with a BA or WW lynch today.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #890 on: May 29, 2014, 03:46:37 pm »

I'm not going to lay down a lynch order from on high. Vote your conscience kids.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #891 on: May 29, 2014, 03:48:11 pm »

OK, I think that IG is much more likely town, I now have a reasonably large scum read on WW as this whole thing goes down (driving me, twisting IG's words, the whole looking-at-the-timestamps thing (there's no way town does that, no way at all, town makes those kinds of misrememberings, not scum, it's part of a fake case), and I maintain a large scum read on BA. xp, light town I think?

A-ok with a BA or WW lynch today.

I did no twisting of words at all.

Sure, it could have been a misremembering, but it looked to me like "quick! I need to deflect suspicion!"
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #892 on: May 29, 2014, 03:52:12 pm »

OK, I think that IG is much more likely town, I now have a reasonably large scum read on WW as this whole thing goes down (driving me, twisting IG's words, the whole looking-at-the-timestamps thing (there's no way town does that, no way at all, town makes those kinds of misrememberings, not scum, it's part of a fake case), and I maintain a large scum read on BA. xp, light town I think?

A-ok with a BA or WW lynch today.

I did no twisting of words at all.

Sure, it could have been a misremembering, but it looked to me like "quick! I need to deflect suspicion!"

You are right that you didn't twist words so much as point out a "misremembering" that never actually comes from scum (in my experience) and always from town. And this sort of argument (the kind you made) more often comes from scum. Then there is the you pushing me thing, which doesn't make you scum but seems so strange to me.

I think I'd rather lynch BA before you, though, and so my vote remains on him.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #893 on: May 29, 2014, 04:04:54 pm »


You are right that you didn't twist words so much as point out a "misremembering" that never actually comes from scum (in my experience) and always from town. And this sort of argument (the kind you made) more often comes from scum. Then there is the you pushing me thing, which doesn't make you scum but seems so strange to me.

I think I'd rather lynch BA before you, though, and so my vote remains on him.

Well, I don't know about the "misremembering" thing only coming from town as I don't have enough experience to say that.  So you may be right.  To me I read a statement which cannot, logically, be true.

As for you, consider it from my perspective.  There were multiple things that were so similar to HoC that it's eerie.  And your certainty that Nik is town should have gone down significantly by pure statistics alone.   
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #894 on: May 29, 2014, 04:07:13 pm »

Well, yeah, blind statistics say Nik is more likely scum today, but again, look at HoC: most of his posts were (in my opinion) poorly-reasoned votes, which ramped up on later days, and scum talked shraeye and the rest of town into mislynching him.

Which is what I see here (except for the mislynch part).
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #895 on: May 29, 2014, 04:43:25 pm »

Vote: Axxle

I feel like he's flying under the radar. He sort of disappeared after Governing his own lynch, which isn't how I feel a town Governor would play it. Town Governor would get more involved after that. Scum Governor would lie low and hope that the momentum required to get his lynch going again would be enough to stop it from actually happening.

RE: people who are actually posting- I would be okay lynching BA. I also didn't consider the possibility, I think pointed out by WW, that Ichi is a scum lover and is telling the truth that he doesn't have partners. That's the perfect claiming situation for scum, since they know they won't be counterclaimed, and provides the perfect fallback, which would allow him to put himself out there as much as he has this game. So I think I would be okay going back to an Ichi lynch too.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #896 on: May 29, 2014, 04:47:36 pm »

I forgot about axxle. He's the third person I'd be happy lynching today.
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Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #897 on: May 29, 2014, 04:50:01 pm »

I get a very strong scum vibe off of WW. He is my preferred lynch over Axxle who is also suspicious to me, as well. However, I think WW is more likely scum or even possibly they are both scum.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #898 on: May 29, 2014, 04:52:20 pm »

I get a very strong scum vibe off of WW. He is my preferred lynch over Axxle who is also suspicious to me, as well. However, I think WW is more likely scum or even possibly they are both scum.

What is suspicious about Axxle to you?
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #899 on: May 29, 2014, 04:55:32 pm »

I get a very strong scum vibe off of WW. He is my preferred lynch over Axxle who is also suspicious to me, as well. However, I think WW is more likely scum or even possibly they are both scum.

What is suspicious about Axxle to you?

The fact that he seems to be posting very little D2. And, while I initially thought it was likely he picked Governor, I also think he may have thought that discarding Mountebank may have been more likely to have given him a scummy role if he had Nobles in his hand. Regardless, it is a 50/50 shot that Axxle is scum.
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