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Author Topic: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Werewolves Win!)  (Read 21733 times)

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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #825 on: May 28, 2014, 04:00:41 pm »

vote: Axxle
For sheeping and likely being a mafia governor.
I even forgot that we have 5 members of town dead including the D1 lynch. So that's even better odds (I can see Voltaire's optimism about lynching scum today).
Furthermore, almost all of Axxle's posts are short--and the majority of them are votes.

PPE: ww

I guess that particular point may not speak to his alignment either way. However, the rest of them do. His vote on me now just looks really opportunistic--especially since the last thing he said about me was he had a town read on me.

A Drowned Kernel

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #826 on: May 28, 2014, 04:33:27 pm »

I don't like a lurker lynch here. And I think a Voltaire lynch is not great, since he's been investigated twice. On pure statistics he's half as likely as anyone else to be scum.

If I could vote anymore, I think I'd be voting IG.

The thing about Voltaire is that I'm not sure that a Watcher investigation proves anything. The fact that no one but you tried to kill or target him last night makes it slightly more likely that he's scum, not less, and we do have a "not mafia" result on him but there are 2 possible other scum teams and the SK's (though if Volt is scum he's probably on a team with Nik).
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #827 on: May 28, 2014, 05:45:59 pm »

I don't like a lurker lynch here. And I think a Voltaire lynch is not great, since he's been investigated twice. On pure statistics he's half as likely as anyone else to be scum.

If I could vote anymore, I think I'd be voting IG.

The thing about Voltaire is that I'm not sure that a Watcher investigation proves anything. The fact that no one but you tried to kill or target him last night makes it slightly more likely that he's scum, not less, and we do have a "not mafia" result on him but there are 2 possible other scum teams and the SK's (though if Volt is scum he's probably on a team with Nik).
I concur. I get a bit of a scumbud vibe for people finding Voltaire townie for information that's not that conclusive.

Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #828 on: May 28, 2014, 05:47:53 pm »

I don't like a lurker lynch here. And I think a Voltaire lynch is not great, since he's been investigated twice. On pure statistics he's half as likely as anyone else to be scum.

If I could vote anymore, I think I'd be voting IG.

The thing about Voltaire is that I'm not sure that a Watcher investigation proves anything. The fact that no one but you tried to kill or target him last night makes it slightly more likely that he's scum, not less, and we do have a "not mafia" result on him but there are 2 possible other scum teams and the SK's (though if Volt is scum he's probably on a team with Nik).
I concur. I get a bit of a scumbud vibe for people finding Voltaire townie for information that's not that conclusive.

Which people are those?
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #829 on: May 28, 2014, 06:01:57 pm »

I don't like a lurker lynch here. And I think a Voltaire lynch is not great, since he's been investigated twice. On pure statistics he's half as likely as anyone else to be scum.

If I could vote anymore, I think I'd be voting IG.

The thing about Voltaire is that I'm not sure that a Watcher investigation proves anything. The fact that no one but you tried to kill or target him last night makes it slightly more likely that he's scum, not less, and we do have a "not mafia" result on him but there are 2 possible other scum teams and the SK's (though if Volt is scum he's probably on a team with Nik).
I concur. I get a bit of a scumbud vibe for people finding Voltaire townie for information that's not that conclusive.

Which people are those?
Joth. And...I think S_P said something similar. So yeah, those two.

Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #830 on: May 28, 2014, 06:11:23 pm »

Yeah, uh.  I don't think Joth is scum.
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #831 on: May 28, 2014, 06:12:45 pm »

I don't think Scott said something similar either (though maybe I missed it).  I think Scott said that Voltaire seemed townie day 1, which is why he chose Volt to Watch. 
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #832 on: May 28, 2014, 06:15:35 pm »

Yeah, uh.  I don't think Joth is scum.
Oh. Yeah. Duh on me  :-[

I still think it's a scummy line of reasoning. But I guess this proves that town is using it as well.

PPE: yeah. I went back through and it wasn't scott that said it, but I'm pretty sure that someone else did.

Beyond Awesome

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #833 on: May 28, 2014, 06:27:28 pm »

I don't like a lurker lynch here. And I think a Voltaire lynch is not great, since he's been investigated twice. On pure statistics he's half as likely as anyone else to be scum.

If I could vote anymore, I think I'd be voting IG.

I think you have some good points. Voltaire is almost certainly town. I mean, yes, right now I am voting for EgorK because he is lurking. I mean that seems a bit suspicious to me, but maybe he has other things in life going on. I don't know. I guess I wished he was a little more active to get a better reading on him.

On Day 1, I felt IG was certainly town. However, he has a lot of analysis and talking going on which is a smart thing to do, especially if you are scum. I was thinking of voting him day 3 if he wasn't killed since someone who talks as much as him is likely to figure things out quicker. In other words, if he were not scum, he should be a prime target even if he has no PR simply because he seems like the type to put the pieces together. Also, him talking so much could be a way of him trying to look like town. But, the fact that he didn't die day 1 is perhaps telling. I mean, he was talking a lot in day 1. I would imagine scum would want to eliminate people that talk a lot. So, with that reasoning, I am going change my vote.

Vote: Ichimaru Gin
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #834 on: May 28, 2014, 06:31:19 pm »

I think that's L-2 for Ichi.
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #835 on: May 28, 2014, 06:34:01 pm »

Vote Count 2.4

Ichimaru Gin (4): Archetype, A Drowned Kernel, Axxle, Beyond Awesome
Nik (1): XerxesPraelor
EgorK (1): Nik
Voltaire (1): Witherweaver
Axxle (1): Ichimaru Gin

Not Voting (3): EgorK, scott_pilgrim, Voltaire

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.
Day 2 ends on Monday June 2 at 9:30 PM FT. Please note: mail-mi will be going to Spain around the 4th or 5th. AndrewisFTTW will be the official mod from then until about June 15th or 16th.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #836 on: May 28, 2014, 07:14:29 pm »

Still haven't re-read.  :( I can happily get behind a vote: axxle. I have a gut and I'm going to listen to it.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #837 on: May 28, 2014, 07:50:44 pm »

Joth, what are you thinking the factions look like that Voltaire is half as likely to be scum?  He could be Mafia godfather or Mafia with that Alien ability existing anywhere, or any of the additional factions causing the night kills.  Also survivor, lyncher, ... Is there an "antilyncher"?

Anyway, lots of other possibilities.  I agree less likely, but I'm not sure it's that much.
 
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #838 on: May 28, 2014, 09:27:32 pm »

As far as Ichi, I don't know. I don't know what WW tunneling me means either.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #839 on: May 28, 2014, 09:31:03 pm »

Joth, what are you thinking the factions look like that Voltaire is half as likely to be scum?  He could be Mafia godfather or Mafia with that Alien ability existing anywhere, or any of the additional factions causing the night kills.  Also survivor, lyncher, ... Is there an "antilyncher"?

Anyway, lots of other possibilities.  I agree less likely, but I'm not sure it's that much.
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Greater_Idea_Mafia

(no, not in this setup; although an unlyncher does exist as a concept)
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #840 on: May 28, 2014, 09:37:08 pm »

Still haven't re-read.  :( I can happily get behind a vote: axxle. I have a gut and I'm going to listen to it.
This reads more like the Voltaire I've known before.
I was a little concerned before with you being so gun-ho for Axxle yesterday, and not much today.
But this makes more sense.

As far as Ichi, I don't know. I don't know what WW tunneling me means either.
I feel like you may be better at reading than me than others, but I am not sure.
Let's see, I think we've been in 2 games--one me as super inexperienced scum, and then HoC where I was basically an IC.

Aside from ADK, the rest of the people on my wagon are all mildly scummy to me.

And I now recall it was BA who earlier found Voltaire townie because of the watch and investigation on him (to answer ww's earlier question).

At any rate, I am happy with an Axxle lynch today. Nik is a little townier than before, but most of his posts are still votes. S_P hasn't been around much, but is he VLA? Oh, and Xerxes is very busy with another ongoing game--I've got mostly null reads on him. EgorK said he was rereading I believe; he's lurked so far though.

scott_pilgrim

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #841 on: May 29, 2014, 12:27:36 am »

S_P hasn't been around much, but is he VLA?

I'm not VLA anymore, I've just been putting off a re-read and feel unqualified to give any input before re-reading (there are now a huge number of known townies whose D1 interactions with other players we can consider).  Hopefully I will get to that tomorrow and be able to post something of more value.

Also, I'm not sure how much information I should give regarding my reads on other players, as it may make it easier for scum to figure out who I will watch and plan accordingly.  Though there is a very good chance I won't be alive tomorrow anyway, so maybe it doesn't matter (on the other hand, I didn't expect to be alive today, and here I am).
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #842 on: May 29, 2014, 02:33:40 am »

Well. I'm going to bed. We still have what, 5 or so days to the deadline?
If I die today, or tonight, I think it's important that we have joth--if there are any members of town left, he can at least be trusted by them. (just getting some statements out in case). I've posted a ton, so there'll be those interactions to see. I don't know, even if we lynch scum today--after losing all those town PR's...best to be optimistic though. It seems like scum would prefer to take out the other scumteams that pose a threat to them, so hopefully their reads will be better and they'll take each other out.

Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #843 on: May 29, 2014, 07:02:12 am »

Vote: Ichimaru. This is L-1
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #844 on: May 29, 2014, 07:56:44 am »

Stop. Halt. Desist.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #845 on: May 29, 2014, 07:59:28 am »

Did some re-reading. No longer sold on IG. Think we might be out-tinkling ourselves. I want to talk more about Axxle and Voltaire. Have to go to work now, but hang on.

Also, Beyond Awesome's reply to my post is Beyond Scummy.
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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #846 on: May 29, 2014, 08:36:47 am »

So, with that reasoning, I am going change my vote.

Are you talking about this, joth?
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #847 on: May 29, 2014, 08:54:36 am »

Let's break down the whole thing. He seems like he was trying to decide which lynch to push and then the IC came in and made it easy.

I think you have some good points. Voltaire is almost certainly town.

No one up until now has said "Voltaire is almost certainly town" (I said, he's less likely to be scum) and, as everyone else pointed out, the investigative results clear him less than most people think. It's a crazy ovrsimplification.

Quote
I mean, yes, right now I am voting for EgorK because he is lurking. I mean that seems a bit suspicious to me, but maybe he has other things in life going on. I don't know. I guess I wished he was a little more active to get a better reading on him.

"Well, this wagon didn't take off, time to try something new."

Quote
On Day 1, I felt IG was certainly town. However, he has a lot of analysis and talking going on which is a smart thing to do, especially if you are scum. I was thinking of voting him day 3 if he wasn't killed since someone who talks as much as him is likely to figure things out quicker. In other words, if he were not scum, he should be a prime target even if he has no PR simply because he seems like the type to put the pieces together. Also, him talking so much could be a way of him trying to look like town. But, the fact that he didn't die day 1 is perhaps telling. I mean, he was talking a lot in day 1. I would imagine scum would want to eliminate people that talk a lot. So, with that reasoning, I am going change my vote.

Vote: Ichimaru Gin

This is just a terrible case. He's scum because he's playing the game (never mind that Beyond Awesome just finished reasoning that EgorK was scum because he was NOT playing the game). And he's scum because he didn't die on a night when scum killed THREE MAJOR PRs! There's nothing here at all. It's a badly disguised bandwagon vote.

You guys should lynch Beyond Awesome. Or look back at his other posts and see if they are this scummy.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #848 on: May 29, 2014, 09:03:06 am »

This is why I should have re-read!

vote: Beyond Awesome
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XerxesPraelor

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 2!)
« Reply #849 on: May 29, 2014, 09:23:18 am »

Let's break down the whole thing. He seems like he was trying to decide which lynch to push and then the IC came in and made it easy.

I think you have some good points. Voltaire is almost certainly town.

No one up until now has said "Voltaire is almost certainly town" (I said, he's less likely to be scum) and, as everyone else pointed out, the investigative results clear him less than most people think. It's a crazy ovrsimplification.

Quote
I mean, yes, right now I am voting for EgorK because he is lurking. I mean that seems a bit suspicious to me, but maybe he has other things in life going on. I don't know. I guess I wished he was a little more active to get a better reading on him.

"Well, this wagon didn't take off, time to try something new."

Quote
On Day 1, I felt IG was certainly town. However, he has a lot of analysis and talking going on which is a smart thing to do, especially if you are scum. I was thinking of voting him day 3 if he wasn't killed since someone who talks as much as him is likely to figure things out quicker. In other words, if he were not scum, he should be a prime target even if he has no PR simply because he seems like the type to put the pieces together. Also, him talking so much could be a way of him trying to look like town. But, the fact that he didn't die day 1 is perhaps telling. I mean, he was talking a lot in day 1. I would imagine scum would want to eliminate people that talk a lot. So, with that reasoning, I am going change my vote.

Vote: Ichimaru Gin

This is just a terrible case. He's scum because he's playing the game (never mind that Beyond Awesome just finished reasoning that EgorK was scum because he was NOT playing the game). And he's scum because he didn't die on a night when scum killed THREE MAJOR PRs! There's nothing here at all. It's a badly disguised bandwagon vote.

You guys should lynch Beyond Awesome. Or look back at his other posts and see if they are this scummy.
I think that's actually a great case - I just tuned out people's posts for the most part, but your analysis is spot-on.

vote: Beyond Awesome
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