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Author Topic: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Werewolves Win!)  (Read 21808 times)

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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #575 on: May 21, 2014, 10:47:42 am »

Exactly, xeiron just layed out why Nik is probably town.
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #576 on: May 21, 2014, 10:48:38 am »

Voltaire, flesh that out if you would.
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #577 on: May 21, 2014, 10:49:21 am »

Voltaire, flesh that out if you would.

Which one? I've made several comments recently.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #578 on: May 21, 2014, 10:49:30 am »

Rather. Assuming B will also get you A.

Sorry: phone posting
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jotheonah

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #579 on: May 21, 2014, 10:53:06 am »

This one:

Exactly, xeiron just layed out why Nik is probably town.

I tend to think that someone who votes in most of their posts on day 1 is scum. Scum trying to push a lynch. Why does that make him town? Because it's too obvious?
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"I know old meta, and joth is useless day 1 but awesome town day 3 and on." --Teproc

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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #580 on: May 21, 2014, 10:54:26 am »

This one:

Exactly, xeiron just layed out why Nik is probably town.

I tend to think that someone who votes in most of their posts on day 1 is scum. Scum trying to push a lynch. Why does that make him town? Because it's too obvious?

Yes, but more importantly, as xeiron says, because that's what he did in NM4 as town.

So yes, he could be scum, but he's new enough that if he's matching his town meta like this he's got to be more likely town. I simply cannot see it any other way.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #581 on: May 21, 2014, 10:54:40 am »

@ww

It's been a little while since I took logic. But after (3) wouldn't you have B-->A
?
Otherwise it's just one assumption that leads to a single conclusion.

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Well the point is that in WIFOM you're not making the assumption that you want to prove. (You're not assuming that A is true in order to show that B is true.)  You know that A->B is a sensible thing to think and that B-> A is also a sensible thing to think.  But A and B can't both be true.  You have to (somehow) judge which is more likely.

Of course in that previous post I misspoke what circular reasoning was.  I meant to say, you want to show A=>B.  You assume B.  (Do some stuff that's not really relevant.)  You conclude B is true. 

Anyway, all off topic.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #582 on: May 21, 2014, 10:55:45 am »

This one:

Exactly, xeiron just layed out why Nik is probably town.

I tend to think that someone who votes in most of their posts on day 1 is scum. Scum trying to push a lynch. Why does that make him town? Because it's too obvious?

Yes, but more importantly, as xeiron says, because that's what he did in NM4 as town.

So yes, he could be scum, but he's new enough that if he's matching his town meta like this he's got to be more likely town. I simply cannot see it any other way.

But this could just be the way he is.  Just because his scummy town play turned out to be town before doesn't mean scummy town => town always.
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #583 on: May 21, 2014, 10:57:00 am »

This one:

Exactly, xeiron just layed out why Nik is probably town.

I tend to think that someone who votes in most of their posts on day 1 is scum. Scum trying to push a lynch. Why does that make him town? Because it's too obvious?

Yes, but more importantly, as xeiron says, because that's what he did in NM4 as town.

So yes, he could be scum, but he's new enough that if he's matching his town meta like this he's got to be more likely town. I simply cannot see it any other way.

But this could just be the way he is.  Just because his scummy town play turned out to be town before doesn't mean scummy town => town always.

But IF you take that premise (I do not), even then, it is a null tell for him, not a scum tell! This is what I am saying.

Nik feels like the classic "scum paints townie who was vaguely confusing/strange into a mislynch" mold.
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #584 on: May 21, 2014, 10:57:31 am »

This one:

Exactly, xeiron just layed out why Nik is probably town.

I tend to think that someone who votes in most of their posts on day 1 is scum. Scum trying to push a lynch. Why does that make him town? Because it's too obvious?

Yes, but more importantly, as xeiron says, because that's what he did in NM4 as town.

So yes, he could be scum, but he's new enough that if he's matching his town meta like this he's got to be more likely town. I simply cannot see it any other way.

But this could just be the way he is.  Just because his scummy town play turned out to be town before doesn't mean scummy town => town always.

It's extremely hard to replicate your town meta to a T though, and this is what Nik is doing here.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #585 on: May 21, 2014, 10:58:02 am »

This one:

Exactly, xeiron just layed out why Nik is probably town.

I tend to think that someone who votes in most of their posts on day 1 is scum. Scum trying to push a lynch. Why does that make him town? Because it's too obvious?

Yes, but more importantly, as xeiron says, because that's what he did in NM4 as town.

So yes, he could be scum, but he's new enough that if he's matching his town meta like this he's got to be more likely town. I simply cannot see it any other way.

But this could just be the way he is.  Just because his scummy town play turned out to be town before doesn't mean scummy town => town always.
Exactly. That's my fear. I feel like Nik would play comparably as scum too.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #586 on: May 21, 2014, 10:58:42 am »

And in HoC, we wasn't jumping quite so much, was he?  I thought he was pretty set on you for most of the game.  He went for some other votes, but he was going back to you fairly consistently.

(You being Voltaire here.)
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #587 on: May 21, 2014, 11:00:52 am »

And in HoC, we wasn't jumping quite so much, was he?  I thought he was pretty set on you for most of the game.  He went for some other votes, but he was going back to you fairly consistently.

(You being Voltaire here.)

That was only on later days, not D1.
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xeiron

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #588 on: May 21, 2014, 11:01:25 am »

Well, is Scott's vote based on him lurking, or him doing scummy stuff?  He's VLA and has posted there.

I have no scumread yet in this game (except the one I had on Axxle). Only townreads, slight townreads and null reads. Out of these I naturally want to lynch my nullreads.

Scott Pilgrim has not made many posts, and those he has made has been pretty uncontroversial. (In contrast to e.g Nik) Because of this it is hard to get a good read on him. When there is no scummier option, people who are hard to read makes good lynches. Of the same reason I could easy support lynching Robz or Chairs as well.

I am aware that Scott Pilgrim has posted V/LA, and while that explains the few posts, I do not think we should refrain from lynching him because of that.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #589 on: May 21, 2014, 11:09:22 am »

Alright, Unvote because I trust Voltaire. 
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EgorK

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #590 on: May 21, 2014, 11:14:05 am »

It seems Nik isn't happening? Well, I'm content with Vote: sp then
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Teproc

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #591 on: May 21, 2014, 11:15:54 am »

It seems Nik isn't happening? Well, I'm content with Vote: sp then

This is L-1.
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #592 on: May 21, 2014, 11:19:46 am »

I'm willing to hammer.

How long should we wait to see if he wants to claim or anything?  He hasn't posted for... days, right?

Can we get a prod on SP?
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xeiron

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #593 on: May 21, 2014, 11:38:59 am »

Hey everyone, I haven't posted in a few days because I haven't had internet access.  I will be really busy for the next few days and probably won't be able to post much, and I don't have time to catch up now...

Deadline is Wednesday, that's a really bad time for me.  Hopefully I can catch up before then...

This is his last post. He said he might reach the deadline.
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EgorK

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #594 on: May 21, 2014, 12:21:52 pm »

It seems Nik isn't happening? Well, I'm content with Vote: sp then

This is L-1.

Yes, sorry
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Voltaire

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #595 on: May 21, 2014, 01:50:35 pm »

Deadline is in a few hours. Do we have anyone around intending to hammer?
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #596 on: May 21, 2014, 01:52:48 pm »

I'm still here.
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Axxle

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #597 on: May 21, 2014, 01:57:32 pm »

I can.
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scott_pilgrim

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #598 on: May 21, 2014, 01:58:48 pm »

Okay I'm on now and going to try to catch up, I'm ~12 pages behind I think...

What time is the deadline?
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Witherweaver

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Re: Mafia XLIV: Donald's Greater Idea Mafia (Day 1!)
« Reply #599 on: May 21, 2014, 01:59:59 pm »

Okay I'm on now and going to try to catch up, I'm ~12 pages behind I think...

What time is the deadline?

11 PM, 9 hours from now.  You're at L-1 and have two people intending to hammer you.
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