I think Kirian was being technically correct about 5 points after round 5 having a chance of top 16. If enough people with 6 points tie this round, then there will be lots of people with 7 points instead of 8 points before the final round, and that might push the top 16 cutoff to 9 points.
This is unlikely enough that it probably won't happen.
Pretty much exactly this. Ties mess with what would otherwise be a binomial distribution.
In other words, there are people with 7 points currently who still have a chance at the top 16. It's not everyone though; mainly those with very high Solkoff scores, probably 40+ depending on exactly who does and does not tie in the 8-point tier. And of course that assumes lots of ties in the 8-point tier.
