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[HiveMindEmulator]

^I guess my point was that I didn't know why silver/chapel is in consideration, as it doesn't give any benefits over potion/chapel in the situation where you are more interested in getting familiar than getting $5. So there's not even really a question of variance. Sure it may have less variance, since the chance of getting turn 3-4 familiar is always 0, but that's not the kind of lower variance that helps anyone...

Regarding chapel/potion vs no chapel, I'm pretty sure chapel wins by a landslide. The early chapel will trim your deck so you buy and play more familiars faster so you'll come out *at least* even in curses, if not ahead, *plus* you can trash some of the curses. Chapel/silver already beats silver/silver for witch games, and the advantage gets bigger for familiar, where you're more than happy to buy lots of them.

[hughes]

I think I'd go with the familiar if cursing is going to be difficult to get and chapel if trashing going to be difficult.  I like the idea of having the only cursing card in play so that even in a short game, my opponent will end up with 3-5 curses leaving me with 0.

(Assuming the reverse: chapel in play and familiar in the BM)

[guided]

^I guess my point was that I didn't know why silver/chapel is in consideration

Why not simulate it? And indeed, simulating it seems to have shown it's better than Silver/Potion/Chapel. I'm not sure what you're complaining about here. Also, from a practical standpoint (if we hope to actually apply our results to real games) the assumption that there are no useful $5 cards you would ever want in a Familiar game is an extremely bad one.

Regarding chapel/potion vs no chapel

I doubt the result will be a landslide, and in any case the specific comparison that most interests me is Silver/Potion openings with and without Chapel.

[HiveMindEmulator]

Sorry, I didn't mean to seem like I was complaining. I was actually wondering if there is any good argument as to why you would open silver/chapel in a familiar game. Is there ever a compelling $5 card you want to get early in a chapel/familiar game, at the cost of delaying familiar (causing you to potentially prefer to open silver/chapel)? If so, you would need to include such a card in the simulation to get a meaningful comparison to see if silver/chapel is a good opening. As simulated, silver appears to offer no real advantage that I can see.

[dondon151]

Unrelated question, but if you open Chapel/Silver and draw Chapel, 3x Copper, Silver - do you trash the Coppers or buy a Witch? I'm assuming Witch gets priority because you're not going to get $5 again in the current cycle of the deck, and it's more difficult to get to $5 when there are 3 fewer Coppers in your deck.