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Author Topic: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards  (Read 76997 times)

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serakfalcon

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #125 on: April 19, 2014, 12:28:16 pm »
0

At ±3σ we can basically be sure that Tournament is better than scout, and not much else.
The standard deviations listed here are the standard deviations of the votes given (at least, I assume so). The standard deviation of the mean of the votes is sqrt(n) times as small (where n is the number of votes), so on this list 11 times as small. This means that small differences are already quite significant on this list (which is not that strange with a sample size of >100).

For example, if we take "statistical significant" to mean ±3σ, then Tournament (#2) is statistical significantly rated higher by our community than Ironmonger (#5) (and also higher than all cards below Ironmonger1).

 >>> WARNING: MATH AHEAD <<<


This is because their difference in weighted average is
88.5 - 81.4 = 7.1
and the standard deviation of the difference (of the average) is2
σ = sqrt(14.9^2+18.9^2)/sqrt(121) = 2.2
So 0 is 3.2σ away from the mean, which means that Tournament is statistical significantly higher than Ironmonger.

----------
1 this does not follow automatically, since the standard deviations can be higher.
2 here I'm assuming that they are independent (or at least that their covariance is 0), which is not entirely correct, but close enough

I spent some time thinking about it (much more time than I spent thinking about my previous post) and your point can't possibly be correct. For one, intuitively we know that all of the rankings are dependent on one another-- if you rank a card #1 you cannot possibly rank any other card #1 so the covariance cannot be zero-- every single mean is related to each other by virtue of the fact that no sample can give two cards the same rank... They are ranked lists and your math is treating each card rank as independent samples, which they most certainly are not...

My napkin-math can't be right either, because I was assuming the same thing you were (except I don't think your formula is right but I'm not a statistician). Now I'm not sure what the standard deviation means or how to use it to compare cards, just that it seems high for most cards relative to the means.
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #126 on: April 19, 2014, 03:55:55 pm »
+1

>>> WARNING: MATH AHEAD <<<

since when do we give math warnings on this forum?
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florrat

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #127 on: April 19, 2014, 04:31:05 pm »
+1

@serakfalcon: sure, my math wasn't exactly right, but my conclusion still stands. If we say that the correlation between the weighted average of two cards is approximately ρ = -0.1 (and I think it's closer to 0 than that), then the standard deviation of the difference is σ = 2.3, so that hardly matters, and Tournament is better than Ironmonger with a difference of more than 3σ's. Even in "the worst case", where the averages are perfectly anticorrelated, i.e. if ρ = -1, then σ = 3.1. Sure, then Ironmonger isn't 3σ's below Tournament anymore, but still more than 2σ, which is still a lot (as terminalCopper said), and this worst case is a ridiculous assumption.
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c4master

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #128 on: April 22, 2014, 04:16:44 am »
0

So let's just consider every difference of more than 7% to be significant. ;)

Anyways, I really don't like sea hag on number 1.
Just yesterday, I had a game, I basically lost due to sea hag being so swingy. Both players started silver/sea hag. Bothe played their sea hag on turns 3 or 4. Both bought another sea hag. Well, my two sea hags collided on turn 6, my opponent's didn't. Since there was no trashing AND it was a duchy/duke game, I basically lost this on that moment. I was just pushed to a 6-4 or even 7-3 curse split. My opponent then picked up 5 duchies, and even if I managed to buy 5 dukes I would have lost (due to curses). If I would have been able to get 7 provinces I would still lose the game, bescause his dukes are worth 5 points and all he needed to do was buy one province to settle the game. Besides, it's really easier to buy 8 dukes than 7 provinces even if both had 5 curses.
I really prefer young witch as $4 curser except the rare cases where the bane card is a powerhouse.

Anyways, I underestimated quite some cards (like ironmonger).
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dondon151

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #129 on: April 22, 2014, 05:49:19 am »
+1

I'd imagine that YW is even swingier than Sea Hag as a curser. Barring one Hag flipping the other, at least Sea Hag doesn't usually have a chance of missing entirely.
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #130 on: April 22, 2014, 02:27:57 pm »
0

I feel like Sea Hag is one of the less swingy power cards in the game. In games where you buy it, it slows the game down, which makes each individual turn less impactful. Something like Wharf, on the other hand, makes the game like 10 turns long, so if you have one bad turn you lose.
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silverspawn

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #131 on: April 22, 2014, 03:05:53 pm »
0

I feel like Sea Hag is one of the less swingy power cards in the game. In games where you buy it, it slows the game down, which makes each individual turn less impactful. Something like Wharf, on the other hand, makes the game like 10 turns long, so if you have one bad turn you lose.

i agree, minus the claim that sea hag is a power card

Tables

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #132 on: April 22, 2014, 04:41:07 pm »
+3

I feel like Sea Hag is one of the less swingy power cards in the game. In games where you buy it, it slows the game down, which makes each individual turn less impactful. Something like Wharf, on the other hand, makes the game like 10 turns long, so if you have one bad turn you lose.

i agree, minus the claim that sea hag is a power card

Sea Hag is absolutely a power card. Maybe not one of the very top $4 cards (although the group consensus says otherwise, but argument by majority means very little), but it's one of those cards you can't just ignore on a board without a good reason. If you leave Sea Hag and your opponent goes for it, you need something to deal with it, be it trashing, a fast(er) engine even in the face of cursing, or a Sea Hag of your own, or some other method to deal with it. If you don't have one of those things, and your opponent goes for Sea Hag, you will very likely lose.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
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silverspawn

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #133 on: April 22, 2014, 05:48:50 pm »
+1

I feel like Sea Hag is one of the less swingy power cards in the game. In games where you buy it, it slows the game down, which makes each individual turn less impactful. Something like Wharf, on the other hand, makes the game like 10 turns long, so if you have one bad turn you lose.

i agree, minus the claim that sea hag is a power card

Sea Hag is absolutely a power card. Maybe not one of the very top $4 cards (although the group consensus says otherwise, but argument by majority means very little), but it's one of those cards you can't just ignore on a board without a good reason. If you leave Sea Hag and your opponent goes for it, you need something to deal with it, be it trashing, a fast(er) engine even in the face of cursing, or a Sea Hag of your own, or some other method to deal with it. If you don't have one of those things, and your opponent goes for Sea Hag, you will very likely lose.

last time we had this argument you told me that sea hag is definitely one of the 4 best $4 cards. we're getting somehwere :P

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #134 on: April 22, 2014, 05:58:56 pm »
0

I feel like Sea Hag is one of the less swingy power cards in the game. In games where you buy it, it slows the game down, which makes each individual turn less impactful. Something like Wharf, on the other hand, makes the game like 10 turns long, so if you have one bad turn you lose.

i agree, minus the claim that sea hag is a power card

Sea Hag is absolutely a power card. Maybe not one of the very top $4 cards (although the group consensus says otherwise, but argument by majority means very little), but it's one of those cards you can't just ignore on a board without a good reason. If you leave Sea Hag and your opponent goes for it, you need something to deal with it, be it trashing, a fast(er) engine even in the face of cursing, or a Sea Hag of your own, or some other method to deal with it. If you don't have one of those things, and your opponent goes for Sea Hag, you will very likely lose.

last time we had this argument you told me that sea hag is definitely one of the 4 best $4 cards. we're getting somehwere :P

Yeah, knowledge of the game has improved, based on what I've seen there's a few more ways to deal with it now, be it faster engines and stuff. Which means at the time, what I said was still correct relative to the metagame, and what I say now, I think is still correct relative to the slightly more advanced metagame. I'd say it's still very likely one of the top 4 $4's though.
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...spin-offs are still better for all of the previously cited reasons.
But not strictly better, because the spinoff can have a different cost than the expansion.

silverspawn

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #135 on: April 22, 2014, 06:16:53 pm »
0

I feel like Sea Hag is one of the less swingy power cards in the game. In games where you buy it, it slows the game down, which makes each individual turn less impactful. Something like Wharf, on the other hand, makes the game like 10 turns long, so if you have one bad turn you lose.

i agree, minus the claim that sea hag is a power card

Sea Hag is absolutely a power card. Maybe not one of the very top $4 cards (although the group consensus says otherwise, but argument by majority means very little), but it's one of those cards you can't just ignore on a board without a good reason. If you leave Sea Hag and your opponent goes for it, you need something to deal with it, be it trashing, a fast(er) engine even in the face of cursing, or a Sea Hag of your own, or some other method to deal with it. If you don't have one of those things, and your opponent goes for Sea Hag, you will very likely lose.

last time we had this argument you told me that sea hag is definitely one of the 4 best $4 cards. we're getting somehwere :P

Yeah, knowledge of the game has improved, based on what I've seen there's a few more ways to deal with it now, be it faster engines and stuff. Which means at the time, what I said was still correct relative to the metagame, and what I say now, I think is still correct relative to the slightly more advanced metagame. I'd say it's still very likely one of the top 4 $4's though.

metagame is majority, if majority means little, it means little that your opinion was correct in the past metagame

aside from that, i am almost certain that sea hag isn't top 4. there are so many trashers, and almost all of them are enough to deal with sea hag. it is beyond me why anyone would rate it over JOAT

c4master

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #136 on: April 23, 2014, 03:19:53 am »
0

I'd imagine that YW is even swingier than Sea Hag as a curser. Barring one Hag flipping the other, at least Sea Hag doesn't usually have a chance of missing entirely.
At least, YW does something for your economy AND it does some filtering which makes you see your witches more often, even if they collide.
Sea hag is swingy because it can collide for no benefit at all and it can be skipped by your opponent.

@silverspawn: I agree on Jack being much stronger than sea hag.

With Steward or Jack on the board, I might ignore both of the cursers. Depends a little bit on what you're planning to do.
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Jack Rudd

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #137 on: April 23, 2014, 10:44:16 am »
0

aside from that, i am almost certain that sea hag isn't top 4. there are so many trashers, and almost all of them are enough to deal with sea hag.
The following trashers have no way of dealing with Sea Hag:

Mine, Moneylender, Counterfeit, Rebuild, Procession

The following trash-for-benefit cards gain you very little for trashing curses (and significantly more for trashing Sea Hags):

Remodel, Remake, Salvager, Apprentice, Transmute (Expand does at least get you a Silver, but again it gets you far more when used on a Sea Hag).
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WanderingWinder

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #138 on: April 23, 2014, 11:00:13 am »
+1

aside from that, i am almost certain that sea hag isn't top 4. there are so many trashers, and almost all of them are enough to deal with sea hag.
The following trashers have no way of dealing with Sea Hag:

Mine, Moneylender, Counterfeit, Rebuild, Procession

The following trash-for-benefit cards gain you very little for trashing curses (and significantly more for trashing Sea Hags):

Remodel, Remake, Salvager, Apprentice, Transmute (Expand does at least get you a Silver, but again it gets you far more when used on a Sea Hag).
Well, chapel and forge get you very little for trashing curses, too - at least remake here definitely deals with the curses fine. The main point of being able to deal with curses is just getting them out of your deck, and so while I grant you that some of these don't do it very effectively (remodel is the big thing here), the point isn't how many trashers DON'T deal with them effectively, it's how many that DO. You can treat the bad trashers like any other kingdom card. The question is how many effective ways exist in the game, or more specifically how likely one of them is to be on the same board with your Sea Hag. Chapel, Masquerade, Steward, Upgrade, Ambassador, Lookout, Forge, Remake, Jack, Forager, Hermit, Junk Dealer, Mercenary all deal with the Hag quite well, and then there are several others that are so-so. Even if we just take these, that's 13 good ways of dealing with it, or close to 50% of full random kingdoms right there. Throw in that most any other curser also tends to outshine hag, you can occasionally outrace or slog it, and there are lots and lots of partial answers (rats, T4B, even things like trade route, develop et al in good engines), and Hag is usually not going to be amazing.

terminalCopper

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #139 on: April 23, 2014, 02:22:30 pm »
+3

Chapel, Masquerade, Steward, Upgrade, Ambassador, Lookout, Forge, Remake, Jack, Forager, Hermit, Junk Dealer, Mercenary all deal with the Hag quite well
It's true that these cards deal well with hag ... but only few of them really turn it into a bad card (namely: masq, amb, jack, forager, lookout). With all the others, I will often buy both the hag and the trasher; it's a 50-50-decision with Remake, Hermit, Junk Dealer, Upgrade or Mercenary on board; and with Steward, Chapel or Forge being the only (decent) trasher I will mostly go for the hag anyway. Let me explain these three:

- Steward/Hag was one of the strongest openings on councilroom, as far as I can remember ahead of Steward/Silver or Steward/Steward.
- If chapel is on board, hagging late is great: Just wait till your opp has trimmed his deck.
- Forge is brilliant after the curse war. But if it's the only decent trasher and you plan to ignore sea hag to trash the curses later - well, good luck.

Hag is usually not going to be amazing.


Depends on the meaning of "usually": I'd say that hag is skippable 40% of the time, quite good on 30% of all boards, and the board-dominant powerhouse in 30% of all games. That's a lot.
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BraveBear

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #140 on: April 24, 2014, 09:09:05 am »
0

There has been very few times where I've regretted opening hag when my opponents does.  No matter what is on the board.
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c4master

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #141 on: April 24, 2014, 10:35:14 am »
+1

There has been very few times where I've regretted opening hag when my opponents does.  No matter what is on the board.

Almost any 3-player-game.
Losing the curse split 10-5-5 is not halfway as bad as losing it 10-0. ;)

@terminalCopper:
What about Watchtower or maybe even Horse Trader?
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DG

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #142 on: April 24, 2014, 10:41:15 am »
0

Quote
Almost any 3-player-game.
Losing the curse split 10-5-5 is not halfway as bad as losing it 10-0. ;)

That is true however you are taking a gamble. If the curses split 10-7-3 then there's usually only one winner.
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #143 on: April 24, 2014, 11:48:43 am »
0

There has been very few times where I've regretted opening hag when my opponents does.  No matter what is on the board.

That doesn't really mean anything. You can say the same thing about Scout. In the rare game where we BOTH buy Scout, it's probably actually non-terrible. And even if it is, we're both making the same mistake, so I can't blame a loss on that purchase.
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BraveBear

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #144 on: April 24, 2014, 12:01:50 pm »
0

Yes my statement could be made about any card, this is true.  But it points out how rare a situation there is where not opening hag when your opponent does is the right play.

Making the same mistake as your opponent is not always the same across the board.  It hurts much less to make a wrong sea hag opening then lets say a wrong silver opening because there are many more choices with the latter later on in the game.  Sea hag has one purpose.
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HiveMindEmulator

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #145 on: April 24, 2014, 12:09:57 pm »
+1

^It doesn't really point to how rarely it occurs. You conditioned on the fact that you both opened Hag.

What you should be talking about are times when one player opened Hag and the other didn't. This will say more about the strength of Hag.
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silverspawn

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #146 on: April 24, 2014, 12:14:57 pm »
0

^It doesn't really point to how rarely it occurs. You conditioned on the fact that you both opened Hag.

What you should be talking about are times when one player opened Hag and the other didn't. This will say more about the strength of Hag.

this happens a lot actually, even against good opponents. it used to happen even more often. i don't have stats about it, but i'm pretty sure i won the majority of these games. sea hag - just - isnt - good

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #147 on: April 24, 2014, 12:33:50 pm »
+2

^I would imagine it happens a lot in 2 skill regions, with differing results.
1. At very low levels, some people don't respect the strength of cursing, and the player with the curser wins easily.
2. At some medium-high level, people are aware of these rankings, and one player buys Sea Hag because it's #1, while the other player thinks about the actual strategy and realizes you can just trash the curses, so it's not worth opening a negative-tempo card. In this case, the Sea Hag loses.

Now you will see good players say Sea Hag is "terrible" because they only play in situation 2 when they play down to someone who thinks Sea Hag is the best $4 card, and in mirrors. So in all the non-mirrors, Sea Hag is bad. And there's a lot of them since it's overrated.

But really Sea Hag is not that bad *overall*. You still actually have to buy it well over half the time, to avoid ending up in situation (1), which is worth something.

My statement 2 posts ago isn't quite correct. I meant that you should *also* consider non-mirror situations, not that you should consider them exclusively, as that has the same kind of pitfalls as only looking at mirrors.
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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #148 on: April 24, 2014, 03:27:06 pm »
+6

That is true however you are taking a gamble. If the curses split 10-7-3 then there's usually only one winner.
Even if the Curses split 0-0-0, there's usually only one winner.
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c4master

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Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2014 Edition: $4 cards
« Reply #149 on: April 25, 2014, 05:28:21 am »
0

^I would imagine it happens a lot in 2 skill regions, with differing results.
1. At very low levels, some people don't respect the strength of cursing, and the player with the curser wins easily.
2. At some medium-high level, people are aware of these rankings, and one player buys Sea Hag because it's #1, while the other player thinks about the actual strategy and realizes you can just trash the curses, so it's not worth opening a negative-tempo card. In this case, the Sea Hag loses.

Now you will see good players say Sea Hag is "terrible" because they only play in situation 2 when they play down to someone who thinks Sea Hag is the best $4 card, and in mirrors. So in all the non-mirrors, Sea Hag is bad. And there's a lot of them since it's overrated.

But really Sea Hag is not that bad *overall*. You still actually have to buy it well over half the time, to avoid ending up in situation (1), which is worth something.

My statement 2 posts ago isn't quite correct. I meant that you should *also* consider non-mirror situations, not that you should consider them exclusively, as that has the same kind of pitfalls as only looking at mirrors.

That would mean, there is a board with at most light trashing an no other junking than sea hag, since I would prefer almost any other junking attack. Man, I don't think that's more than 50% of all Sea Hag boards. Not even close. And that's only true for 2-player-matches.

Taking into account that Sea Hag can be a real trap, people are more often buying it when they shouldn't than not buying it when they should. That's probably true for most attacks...

I don't see Hag being so strong. ;)
« Last Edit: April 25, 2014, 05:29:25 am by c4master »
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