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Author Topic: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Game Over : Mafia Wins !)  (Read 100809 times)

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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #675 on: April 07, 2014, 10:16:13 pm »

I'm the cop. Can we please talk about a Voltaire lynch now?
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #676 on: April 07, 2014, 10:21:05 pm »

I'm the cop. Can we please talk about a Voltaire lynch now?

No.

Everyone claim if you're the cop or not.

I'm not.

If ADK is telling the truth, we lynch either shraeye or faust and I don't really care which.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #677 on: April 07, 2014, 10:23:07 pm »

(I'll just do this for form) I am not the cop.

ADK, if you really are the cop, and we don't lynch Voltaire today, are you going to investigate him tonight? Because I don't feel like that's the best course of action (Although if you really are the cop, you can obviously do as you please).

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #678 on: April 07, 2014, 10:24:35 pm »

If ADK is scum, I have a prediction on who the real cop is.

If ADK is telling the truth, well, phooey on my reads.
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #679 on: April 07, 2014, 10:27:28 pm »

Sigh.  I am not the cop.

Though if ADK is telling the truth he probably won't get to read anyone anyway, as he'll get deaded.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #680 on: April 07, 2014, 10:29:13 pm »

Sigh.  I am not the cop.

Though if ADK is telling the truth he probably won't get to read anyone anyway, as he'll get deaded.

Right.

Also, WW is the person I thought I'd picked up was the cop today, so oops.

And ADK, if my reads are right (and I knew I had to be wrong about someone in my triad), we would theoretically win the game. Which I am not as sure on any more, but dude, if you're town, we need you more. A lot more.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #681 on: April 07, 2014, 10:29:39 pm »

But this almost certainly means IG gets to live to tomorrow, so that's good.
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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #682 on: April 07, 2014, 10:32:40 pm »

\prod Nik
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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #683 on: April 08, 2014, 05:51:48 am »

Vote Count 2.5:

A Drowned Kernel (2) : Witherweaver, faust
shraeye (1): Ichimaru Gin

Not Voting (4): A Drowned Kernel, shraeye, Voltaire, Nik

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 2 ends at 4:00 p.m. on April 8, 2014 (~10 hours from now).

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Teproc

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #684 on: April 08, 2014, 05:55:50 am »

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shraeye

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #685 on: April 08, 2014, 06:44:20 am »

im here; rereading from day1 now that we know Del, Ichi, mcmc are town.
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Nik

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #686 on: April 08, 2014, 06:48:51 am »

I'm the cop. Can we please talk about a Voltaire lynch now?

No.

Everyone claim if you're the cop or not.

I'm not.

If ADK is telling the truth, we lynch either shraeye or faust and I don't really care which.
I am not the cop. But now that we know that our strongest lynch candidate is town, then it's really only between Shraeye and Faust. Faust seems kind of towny, and since Shraeye says he's really busy, so I say we don't lynch now.
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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #687 on: April 08, 2014, 06:54:23 am »

Uhh, do we really want to do this? Major FOS on Voltaire for urging people to mass-claim without discussion. If ADK is the Cop, well we'll know by tomorrow because scum is gonna kill him 100%. If he's not, he's successfully trying to get the Cop outed. And Voltaire helps with that.

And then instantly saying "let's lynch either faust or shraeye" without considering other options with this new information...

No, FOS is not enough. Vote: Voltaire.
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shraeye

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #688 on: April 08, 2014, 07:53:01 am »

Not sure what to do with this fight. Not sure I understand it as well. mcmc, shraeye, could you sum up why think the respective other is scum?

I have shraeye as slight town and mcmc as null read at the moment.
I don't think that the fight is as unclear as faust was making it.  this comment got under my skin on day1, and it still does.

(Shraeye's thoughts on faust), even smarter scum would mildly oppose the wagon while doing nothing to stop it. And then use this to get themselves town credit after the flip
There's this as well.  Faust was continually null on mcmc, holding back on actually forming an opinion on one of the main people of day1's discussion.  In the end, he did hammer, after I pointed out how this was a scum position, and ichi had also accepted my argument it seems.

So, what happened?

In the mcmc/shraeye fight, shraeye comes off a little more townie than mcmc. I'm not convinced by shraeye's case, but mcmc's reactions to it has a scummy AtE feel.

Voltaire votes for me. Yeah, not much I can do about that because he doesn't really think I'm scummy.

Good input from DeDe solidifies my townread on him.

I still like my vote on Ichimaru. His case on DeDe was constructed, and now he brings up a conspiracy theory. I find it quite unlikely that mcmc and shraeye are scum together, and even if they are, I wouldn't think they staged this fight.
after walking faust through the arguments, he's still straddling the fence on mcmc. casting mcmc's reactions as scummy, while disagreeing with the points of the case and not actually putting down a vote.  This leaves him open to land on either side of the fence later.

In that case I will unvote

The way Ichi goes back and forth with putting mcmc at L-1 is most interesting.
This as well; I think people voting back and forth is the opposite of interesting.  It's common.  Especially among people who are thinking things through a lot.

day1faust=scummy.

Now looking at witherweaver
Shraeye seemed towny to me before the fight, but his "trap" moves him into suspicious territory. mc seems a little scummy but mc always seems a little scummy, both my experiences playing with him I was certain he was scum and he ended up being town so I'm hesitant to vote for him. But I shouldn't be relying on meta knowledge, especially in a newbie game.

This is suspicious.  I have no "trap" set up.  mcmc did crazy stuff, I called him out.  then he did CRAZIER stuff.  And it just got worse from there. 

You're words on mcmc are the most waffling non-committal words of any commenter.  This is the way yuma came out as raerae's partner in Adventure Time mafia (a recent game that town won).  That position is very indicative of scum partner.  If mcmc flips scum, town should most definitely remember this interaction.

Aren't his words on you equally noncommittal?
I hadn't consdered that, Wither.  But now that I look at it, his words on me do commit.  I was towny before my stuff with mcmc.  But now he thinks I'm suspicious due to my case on mcmc.

People should look deeply at that...is my case on mcmc suspicious??  This rings more alarm bells for me; perhaps he's finding me scummy now because I'm looking eagerly at his partner.

To me he seems to have voiced simultaneous suspicion of both you and mcmc.  But he doesn't buy the conspiracy so he only thinks one is scum.  This could be him hedging as scum so that if one turns out to be he can claim this as a defense.  On the other hand, it could easily be what he actually thinks.  I know my inclination when two people go at it like this is that one is guilty, but I don't know which one. 

But I don't entirely understand his post.  ADK:  what did you mean by "trap"?
Wither follows things well, and thinks things through thoroughly.  When I was arguing with ADK on day1, wither was questioning both sides here.  He's doing the very towny thing of trying to get to the bottom of things.  Not accusatory questions, but probing info-getting questions.

So I'm thinking it may not be a great idea to push more people to close to lynching and get them to claim.

We can be sure that McMc isn't cop or doctor, because he would have claimed if he was.  If he is vanilla town, that cuts out 3 candidates (2 scum and McMc) for the scum team. That leaves them with 6 people who they know to contain two power roles.  If we lynch McMc, then scum has a 33% chance of killing a power role tonight (slightly less because the doctor can protect someone, but the doctor has a lot less information than the scum team does). 

Now if we bring someone else to claiming (call this person Claim2), and they claim vanilla town, then scum team knows the two power roles are in a set of five people. If we lynch that person, and he is vanilla town, then scum has a 40% chance of hitting a power role.

If we bring someone to claim and they claim doctor or cop, then I think this is worse for us.  First, we will choose to lynch someone else, and that person will claim.  So now scum has three additional pieces of information: McMc is vanilla town, Claim2 is power role, and Claim3 is whatever.  Suppose Claim3 claims vanilla town and we lynch him.  Then scum knows a power role is in Claim2 and that McMc and Claim3 are vanilla.  If Claim2 is doctor, then (I think) he cannot protect himself so he dies tonight.  If Claim2 is cop, then doctor will protect cop tonight, and scum has a 25% chance (one in four) of targeting the doctor out of the remaining townies.  Then cop can easily die tomorrow night because doctor can only protect odd nights.  So we gain nothing from cop.

If Claim3 were a power role, then scum knows everything.. they target doctor tonight (again assuming he can't protect himself) and cop tomorrow night.  We get nothing from both roles.  This would be worse case scenario, I think.

So I don't know.. it seems that getting people to claim on day 1 is dangerous for us.  Even if they're not power roles, it narrows the field down for the scum team, and they already have a pretty small field from which to choose.   

Of course if Claim2 is mafia, then that is obviously great for us.  So I think if we choose to go away from McMc we better be pretty sure about it. 

Thoughts?
This is also a very thorough examination of claim scenarios. 
Ichi captures my ideas exactly.  WW helps drive discussion well, not controlling it with his opinions, but asking the questions that get people thinking the right ways.  Very on top of things.
Also, I gotta give props to ww and dd. They both seem much more on top of things and putting out some good ideas--and challenging ones as well. (it's really nice when a lot of discussion happens other then when I'm asleep)
Although this also means that they will probably be judged a little more harshly too.

day1wither=towny

Now I'm looking at ADK
I might see Deleuze later tonight, I can give him a real life prod.
I forgot this.  And think it's significant.  ADK knows Del in real life.  It can be draining hiding things IRL from people.  Barring any solid PR leads, I could see this kill happening just because of that.
Ichimaru unvotes again!

Looking over it, I feel like people feel like there's more pressure on shraeye than there actually is, it's not some sort of super-strong wagon. mc voices suspicion of him but it doesn't seem too serious, and a couple of newbies agree with him. Maybe I'm just used to larger games but that doesn't seem like he's any imminent danger.

That said, I'm interested to hear what his thoughts are, it's been awhile since he posted. Nik and other newbies, keep posting!
2 things here.  First, zinging Ichi for the unvoting, just as faust did.  That's not suspicious, and not zing-worthy.  As ichi pointed out later, ADK didn't even have a vote down at this point.  Also, as voltaire starts to decide that I'm town because so many people were against me, ADK tries to slow down that idea by saying how there's not as much pressure on me as people say there is.  Despite this, he has been defending me and saying that I'm town.  This is a classic situation of saying two things at once; on one hand he 'thinks' I'm town, but on the other, he gets worried if other people think I'm town.

I like the soft deadline idea. I've seen very little this game that's voteworthy for me yet, but I do have a pretty strong town read on shraeye and a mostly town read on DeDe, taking a stance on WW seemed like a good town move for a newbie. Volt laying at this plan and explaining the claiming business to the newbies might be a point in his favor, but scum would also want to appear this helpful, so I'll keep an eye on him.
painting Volt scummy because of helping newbies is nonsense.

Shraeye seemed towny to me before the fight, but his "trap" moves him into suspicious territory. mc seems a little scummy but mc always seems a little scummy, both my experiences playing with him I was certain he was scum and he ended up being town so I'm hesitant to vote for him. But I shouldn't be relying on meta knowledge, especially in a newbie game.

This is suspicious.  I have no "trap" set up.  mcmc did crazy stuff, I called him out.  then he did CRAZIER stuff.  And it just got worse from there. 

You're words on mcmc are the most waffling non-committal words of any commenter.  This is the way yuma came out as raerae's partner in Adventure Time mafia (a recent game that town won).  That position is very indicative of scum partner.  If mcmc flips scum, town should most definitely remember this interaction.
Then there is this.  This really got my hackles up day1, but I was insistent that there was a partner link there.  Wrong on the partner, but my hackles are still raised when I read this.  His comments on mcmc seem like an opinion, but they're nothing, just pure nothing.  Additionally, this trap business, which I come to now.

There was no trap, and I don't know where this came from.  I suppose it's a reason to spread the suspicion cannon around.  Seriously, at this point, ADK has put it on Ichi, Volt, me.  Followed none of those up yet.  Just stated suspicion and waited to see what happens.
But I don't entirely understand his post.  ADK:  what did you mean by "trap"?
Wither asks this question, which ADK finally answered
First, shraeye and mc: I don't think that I'm comfortable lynching either of them today. Looking back, I think that mc's characteristic of shraeye's question as a "trap", which I initially bought into, is incorrect. shraeye asks a lot of questions, and when he gets satisfactory answers, he accepts (or at least stops talking about them, which I assume is him accepting them). If he was scum looking to trap someone, I think that he would have been a lot quicker to jump on an answer and paint it as scummy for a mislynch.
by shifting the trap blame onto mcmc.  Guess who was the first player to say trap?  It was ADK.  Not mcmc.  Ctrl-F that shizzz.

day1ADK=scummy

Now onto Volt
Rethinking about Ichimaru, I'm going to Unvote. Vote: Ichimaru Gin

Why? Why is he scum?
I still like my vote on Ichimaru. His case on DeDe was constructed, and now he brings up a conspiracy theory. I find it quite unlikely that mcmc and shraeye are scum together, and even if they are, I wouldn't think they staged this fight.

Why does that make him scummy? Town is paranoid everyone is scum. I see nothing suspicious about him seeing the fight as scum v scum. In fact, it gave me a town read on him.

I do think you're scummy faust - nice try. I think you're doing a good job of not getting a terrible amount of pressure while still being present on D1, a classic scum position.
These are great questions.  He's not allowing people to hide behind shell's of opinions, and I support that a lot.  These are the questions that town asks.
Ichimaru's Day 1 post count
Post Count

Give N$300 to Ichimaru Gin wait, what?

I can't get anything from shareye/mcmc at the moment because they're each following their metas (shraeye is being aggressive and argumentative and abrasive, mcmc is being slightly confusing and earnest). So null on their argument.

Looking at that post count, I want to take myself (because I'm me) out of my lynch pool, Nik out (what should I say? post, also, lowest poster [someone I usually eliminate on D1]), IG (highest poster), and then I'm tempted to sidestep shraeye/mcmc entirely for now, so I think I am happy with a

vote: faust

Reason? Mostly in the background, but not lurking (I am not accusing of actilurking), very little pressure so far, etc. Scum rarely is overtly scummy D1.

There are many other people I'd vote for right now. I'm hesitant to leave hard-core lurkers alive like I normally do because that leads to town losses if those people are indeed town because they stop following closely/are less likely to do crucial re-reads, so eh.

Speaking of which, I'll re-read this thread soon.

FYI, the weekend is usually slow, so everyone be ready to go Monday with the soft deadline and all.
He sidesteps the shraeye/mcmc town vs. town clusterfest, and in a very non-scummy way.  Props to you for seeing past it.

I don't have too much from day1 here, but I read Volt as town

Finally we come to Nik
On the Shraeye situation:
It is strange that he is a vet and yet has so many odd questions; especially since he posted a helpful bit at the beginning.
Shraeye, where are you?
Has a scum read on me in his very first post of substance.  Here is the second, where he restates his reasons (i think this is his reason?) for finding me scummy, but qualifies it by saying that I was helpful at the beginning.  If I was helpful, why did you think I was scum?
Unvote. Vote: mcmcsalot
I have previously stated that Shraeye was suspicious, and I still think he is, but I'm getting a scum read on mcmcsalot. He's being very argumentative and keeps attacking Shraeye, and not very politely, either.
And about DD; I'm getting a null read on him now. I made the same mistake as he did, and it makes sense for a newb not to know what to post.
Here's how I read this: "shraeye was previously suspicious, but his crack arguments on mcmc (and the fact that people are beginning to find mcmc scummy, mostly this reason) make me think that mcmc is scum".  Not cool, yo.
I'm going to Vote:Faust. He has been lurking and his posts have little or no content.
I really have very little for him at all.  There is this pot-kettle-black situation here. 

Nik's day1 posts are mostly votes, very little in explaining hte reads department.  This is so hard to read either way, because of the veil of newbie-ness that Nik also wears.  I'm leaning scum on day1 Nik, but this is a really tenuous read.

Day1 summary: scum to town
ADK, faust, Nik, Volt, wither
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shraeye

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #689 on: April 08, 2014, 08:00:59 am »

Sweet, VT death. Off to re-read now that we have another flip. Cool cool cool cool cool. I actually feel good about this.
That's not scummy?

I'd like to hear you explain why it is.
He feels good about a VT dying.
This sell seems pretty heavy-handed.  That plus the auto-shraeye vote on day2's start.  He's not expressing glee at a VT dying, he's happy that a non-PR died.  Also, faust was zinging Volt for this.  I don't get it.
Not sure what to make of Voltaire's reaction to the flip, seems weird...
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shraeye

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #690 on: April 08, 2014, 08:02:37 am »

Sweet, VT death. Off to re-read now that we have another flip. Cool cool cool cool cool. I actually feel good about this.
That's not scummy?

I'd like to hear you explain why it is.
He feels good about a VT dying.

Nik is 100% obviously town. We are absolutely not lynching him.

This is a bad/incorrect/wrong line of reasoning, but it is one that only town thinks (especially new town).
I very disagree that this line of reasoning makes Nik town.  It's equally something that very-new mafia could say.
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shraeye

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #691 on: April 08, 2014, 08:20:39 am »

So I have no IDEA what. the. jack. you are talking about.  I am in no way more "in the moment" now than I was then.  You're just making a hack-job of pretending to have a reason for reads.  Scum. Found.

vote: mcmc

shraeye, what do you think of the mcmc wagon/interactions now that he's flipped town?
Specifically about the wagon.  Nik's vote is the most "yay a wagon here we gooo!!". Not cool.  Also, Faust's hammer.  I hate formulaic, "will hammer in xx minutes" moves.  Scum love to do this because they love to appear very cool/rational.  I think scum does it more than town.  Your vote seems fine.  Ichi's as well.

As for the interesting people off the wagon, ADK and wither.
So I just did my first massive re-read of the thread, and I've come away with some thoughts.

First, shraeye and mc: I don't think that I'm comfortable lynching either of them today. Looking back, I think that mc's characteristic of shraeye's question as a "trap", which I initially bought into, is incorrect. shraeye asks a lot of questions, and when he gets satisfactory answers, he accepts (or at least stops talking about them, which I assume is him accepting them). If he was scum looking to trap someone, I think that he would have been a lot quicker to jump on an answer and paint it as scummy for a mislynch.

That said, I think the case on mc is overblown. What the whole case comes down to is, he changed his mind. People change their minds. I think town is more likely to change their minds than scum is, since scum knows what alignment everyone really is and has to keep track of their artificially constructed reads. Yes, he acted abrasively towards shraeye, but I think that's well within his personality.

A couple of people who came off looking slightly scummier than I remembered are Ichi and DeDe, who seem to get very defensive when any suspicion floats their way. Yes, it's to be expected from newbies, but emotion is something that scum relies on, and a newbie scum is just as likely to react emotionally as newbie town.

There's something that DeDe brought up, which is my behavior in previous mafia games. The very first mafia game I played was Super Mario Bros, where mafia won due to a very persuasive and active scum player talking town into a series of mislynches. The whole thing left me very frightened, possibly unreasonably so, of early game mislynches.

All that said, the player who came across scummiest to me on my reread was Voltaire. He puts on a very helpful and reasonable persona, all while hanging back and giving pretty ambivalent reads on everyone. It's only once a number of people are on the mc wagon that he starts backing it up. shraeye's scum read on mc was based on his own thinking, which makes me more inclined to believe that he's mistaken town, while Volt is pushing the wagon long after it's gotten started, and is still hedging his bets with his "I'm not sure he's scum but I'll lynch him anyway."

Vote: Voltaire
This is a very safe vote away from the major players.  I compare this with the post that you made where you said " hey mcmc/shraeye...that's a hard thing to read, so I will set it aside for now".  That feels way more towny then somebody who says he doesn't want either because it's town vs town, and then plunks his vote down on a "never gonna happen" candidate.  He also said that Ichi was scummy, and Ichi was like 200% more viable day1 lynch than a Voltaire one was.

Wither: He on the other hand, is going through really useful exercises.  He's getting people to ask themselves what we gain from lynches, not just saying "no, not that lynch...i guess"
Okay, then, suppose we lynch McMc and it's revealed he's town.

How do we react to that?

What does this post accomplish? Is this an attempt to manipulate us into making the assumption that mcmc is town? Why did you ask that question?

The point was that I was trying to figure out if McMc is a good lynch.  That is, would it be helpful if he turns out to be town?  My later post (about getting people to claim) explored this a bit more.
His final vote he says that he's not into a mcmc lynch, but admits that it's going to happen.  He's not fake-trying to start another one int he same way ADK did.
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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #692 on: April 08, 2014, 08:26:08 am »

Here are my opinions on people so far:
Nik-Town, obviously
WW-Town
Ichi-Since no one has counter claimed, Town.
ADK-I don't really understand why everybody is saying he's scum. Is there something I missed? So far, I've got a townie read.
Shraeye-Null
Faust-Null
Volitare-Personally, I still find him scum.
So actaully, I'm going back to my original vote. Vote:Volitare.
no no no.  This list is crazy.  null on two important people, not good.  Town on ADK?? I don't see it at all.

And Voltaire as scum?  He's been the person helping town the VERY most today.  He's the last person we want to lynch today.
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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #693 on: April 08, 2014, 08:31:31 am »

The possibility of a shraeye/faust team, or ww and a vet, are something that I'm going to have reread and look carefully for. But my primary stance is that Volt is far and away my biggest suspect.

Part of it might admittedly be my bias after playing the Super Mario Bros game with Ashersky. In that game I watched a very skilled scum player brazenly push mislynch after mislynch. And the hell of it was, the wagons were never started by him. He waited until two townies got into a fight, then jumped on and fed the flames, all while parading around the excuse that "scum would never be this obvious". To me that looks exactly like what happened on day one. Voltaire waited, not making many waves, until enough newbies had jumped on the mc wagon, then came out in support of it without much solid reasoning. Today, I see him strongly driving another mislynch, and one that's fairly easily, given that a number of people already thought I was scummy. There's a chance that he's town, but it's seeming increasingly unlikely to me. What scares me the most is Ichi stating that he intends to sheep whatever Volt votes, which isn't a good attitude for confirmed town to have. If we mislynch today, scum only needs one town to follow them tomorrow, so Ichi, if I'm not around then, promise we you won't just auto-vote on Volt's side.

As for defending other players, yes, that is something that I do, probably to my detriment. In Adventure Time, I got into a ton of trouble as a townie when a player I defended early on turned out to be scum. Early in the game, when there isn't much interaction to go off of, it's a lot easier for people to get roped into mislynches and for scum to gain control of the game's narrative.

What I've learned from my short experience from this game is that I need to lessen the influence other players have on me and trust my own reads. And right now, my reads are pointing to Voltaire. Is shraeye a scum candidate? Possibly, but the fight between him and mc seemed more townie on townie to me, and it looks to me more like Volt saw a mislynch and jumped in. shraeye could be his partner, which terrifies me a little, but it's starting to look like the most likely possibility. Otherwise it's faust or WW; faust has been absent, so signs might point to him, and WW I have a hard time reading.
you're trying to pin the mcmc lynch on Voltaire??  You are severely mixing up your day1 stuff.  Volt was on that lynch.  But everybody knows that I was the crazy who drove that thing start to finish.

Also, I have no idea why you've related this to a different game with ash.  Volt did not feed the flames of the mcmc/shraeye argument.  He's one of the people who tried to analyze this as he coudl, but also explicitly put his focus elsewehre.  He's like the opposite of fanning those flames.

This blowback onto Voltaire because he's pushing you "an easy mislynch" is very OMGUS.  And not just the "he suspected you for one reason, you suspected him for another".  You really really look like you're trying to punish Volt for having a scum read on you.
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shraeye

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #694 on: April 08, 2014, 08:37:09 am »

Would scum ADK really want to accuse Voltaire?  So far Ichi and myself have basically been agreeing 100% with him, and even though Nik has voted against him, he's also just immediately gone alone with whatever Voltaire said.  ADK would have a really hard time getting everyone to turn on Volt.  Much easier to play a read against Shraeye who had a very aggressive argument against McMc or Faust who has been, like, omnilurk. 

Maybe he thinks that would be too obvious a play, or maybe he's just giving his honest reads.

This.
I am just so torn because having Volt be town is just so. . .convenient--what with him being a vet and a really good town player. I'm an IC now, but am having a really hard time deciding who is town and who is scum.

For now, I feel really, really sure that ww is town. Nik, I'm not sure. It seems like he has a fair amount of interactions with Voltaire. ADK's last couple posts make me feel a little townier on him. Shraeye is more scummy to me, and faust hasn't posted at all. . .

I can't do jack tonight, but I think I want to get more of what I think since there's a good chance scum will kill me unless they feel like they've got a lock on the cop.

PPE: 3
I feel the IC pain, I've been there.  I'm also sure that Wither is town now.  And I'm becoming more and more confident in Volt being town as I read day2.  I can see where you may be scared that we're all being led by scum, but think of it this way.  Today was a directionless clustercuss of nobody posting hardlynothing at all (me, faust, Nik).  ScumVolt could have just breezed through saying nothing as well.  Instead he's grabbing the reins and driving.  And that speaks to me about his towniness. 
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shraeye

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #695 on: April 08, 2014, 08:39:00 am »

It would be interesting if there were some game records where Shraeye was town and went 100% on a particular player.
Check out the recently finished Adventure time mafia.  Where I went all up on yuma day1.  Then finally got him after yelling all day2.  Then I turned to axxle, and yelled about him to our IC Robz for the next 2 (3?) days. 
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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #696 on: April 08, 2014, 08:39:36 am »

Vote: Faust. He's lurking.
True.  But so was I.  And you.  More pot-kettle-black.
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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #697 on: April 08, 2014, 08:41:11 am »

Re-read complete! Note that I don't comment on everything that happened, just stuff I think is worth noting. Also, I'll look at the D1 wagon (the final vote count) later.

faust - complains that the game started out slow when he re-appears, despite his first few posts being "help the newbies" posts and having done nothing himself to move the game along. Casts lurker vote on shraeye. Casts lurker vote on Nik.


ADK - is cool as silk (what) to mcmc's vote on him, and does the "if we're making serious votes now I'll unvote" statement (he's the first to start the string of unvotes [was voting IG]). The post is here. I get a tiny scummy vibe from it, he hedges like crazy (townie) but throws up lots of empty content (scummy). Expresses big town read on shraeye. Says he's "pointed" and "insightful" somehow. Votes Ichi for his "conspiracy theory". Votes for me after I come out in favor of lynching mcmc.


I think there is some more worth noting.  Both ADK and Faust seem to do a pretty great job on Day 1 of hedging suspicions and throwing out a lot of "seems kinda towny," and "seems kinda scummy" vibes.  Let's look at votes:

Faust:
(1) RVS Nik
(2) Votes Shraeye, for motivation to participate (this is where we were transitioning out of RVS)
(3) Votes Nik again for lurking, following Ichi's vote
(4) Votes Ichi for constructing an artificial case against DeDe
<Disappears for like four pages until Voltaire calls him out>
<brings up he's tempted to vote McMc because McMc claimed vanilla town.  Very little to mention on McMc before this except to say he's not quite sure what to make of the fight.  Hedge a slight scum/slight town against McMc I believe>
<This post:
It is interesting how this doesn't feel like a newbie game at all. Good work, everyone!

After catching up, my reads now look like this:

Ichimaru - still scummy. All my previous points still hold, and he's done nothing to make himself look townie.
mcmc - scummy. The VT claim on top of everything else... let me state again why VT is a horrible claim for town to make: it accomplishes two things: 1) Scum knows who they don't need to lynch. 2) You will never be night killed. Scum loves an excuse for never being night killed. Town has no reason to give scum this information.
ADK - scummy. Mostly a feeling from his latest post. Also isn't very active or memorable, so he doesn't make a bad lynch

Nik - lurking, sheeping and slightly scummy for that. He's the only one here why acts like I would expect a newbie to act though, and this may well come from newbie!town.

Voltaire - null. He's pretty much his normal self, without any standout interactions that lead me to think either way about him. I do want to keep him alive today though.
Witherweaver - null. I don't really get why people find him particularly townie, but didn't see much scummy stuff either.

shraeye - slight town. I think he is making sense and putting strong reads out there and sticking to them. Scum is usually more afraid of such commitment.
DeDe - town. My strongest town read, actually. Posts seem sincere, good activity, not afraid of stating reads... it may be masterful newbie!scum play, but I don't think so.
>
<Intent to hammer McMc>
(5) Votes and hammers McMc

He was never really vocal against anyone except Ichi.  Against McMc he says "the VT claim on top of everything else," but he never really established what "everything else" is.  He only ever said before that Shraeye comes off as slightly more towny in the Shraeye vs. McMc argument.

Hammering here seems very safe.  He established some doubt against McMc and then established the VT claim as a perfectly valid reason to hammer, even if he doesn't believe McMc is scum, which he never made a case for until McMc claimed VT.
This.  this this this this this.  Very agree.
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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #698 on: April 08, 2014, 08:45:37 am »

The mcmc wagon is less interesting than I thought. I believe there is scum on it.

shraeye pushed hard, like really hard for this lynch. I don't see that as a scum tactic. Well, that is, in most cases, there are players from which I would expect that. But not from shraeye. So I think he's town.

Voltaire's additude to this wagon was definitely more scummy. First he wants another lynch, but doesn't really do anything about it. He is then quite easily convinced and only sheeps shraeye's reasoning.

Ichi is town. Well.

Nik jumps late when then wagon seems to go through, and sheeps. That's classic scum beviour, and coming from a newbie, it's more likely to actually come from scum.

I am town.

So that would leave me with a slightly scummy feeling on Nik. Voltaire I have already analyzed.

Off-wagon are WW and ADK. Off-wagon is always something generically townie when it's a mislynch wagon. I need to look at the reasons for being off-wagon to make a clearer statement here.
But then faust posts this.  This is not a great post for scumfaust to make.  He goes after lurker Nik, but not hard. (why not hard?)  He comes down in my defense, when I would be a really nice thing to push right now (there is lingering suspicion on me from multiple people, especially vocal-Volt).  In general more townreads than scumreads.  This looks like a disengaged town post.  So there's some posts on one side of the fence, and some on the other for faust.  hhhahjammmmmmmmmmmm.
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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #699 on: April 08, 2014, 08:46:51 am »


You're experiencing a serios case of confirmation bias here. Either that, or you are scum trying to push my mislynch. Right now, I'm more inclined to believe the first.

You view every single action I took here as scummy and invent reasons why that would be a good thing for scum to do. You're completely ignoring the other side - that those things were good for town to do as well. Look at my posts without bias, and you should manage to see the town narrative. By the time I hammered mcmc, it was quite clear that an Ichi lynch wasn't happening that day. That is why I joined the mcmc wagon, not because of some long-term setting up of mislynches. I doubt that setting up mislynches even is a thing scum wants to do.

I'm creating a narrative where you're scum to check if it makes sense.  If it does not hold, that is a good indication that you are not. That does not mean I'm assuming it to be true or that I'm not considering the other possibilities.
This is jsut sooooo town.  Strongest townread.  Bar none.
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