Print

Please login or register.
1 Hour 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month Forever
Login with username, password and session length

[Voltaire]

Dammit. I keep overthinking this.

My thing about shraeye is, why drive the mcmc wagon SO HARD. But then I think, why disappear and do nothing today?

vote: shraeye.

WW, if not shraeye, then who?

[Ichimaru Gin]

Why is Shraeye more likely than anyone else?

It may not be that Shraeye is necessarily more likely than ADK (or even faust). But I think that eliminating him will eliminate the largest possible combination of likely scumteams.

So for example, if Shraeye flips scum, ADK is likely the other scum. If Shraeye flips town, then we could rethink our reads since I don't know if anyone thinks it's faust/ADK.

[Witherweaver]

Shraeye said he had real-life commitments until Monday, so his absense is explained.  I had found ADK the most likely.

[Witherweaver]

But I'm still almost evenly torn between the three.

[Witherweaver]

ADK has been pretty quiet, though.

[Witherweaver]

Not sure what to make of Voltaire's reaction to the flip, seems weird...

My main suspects right now are Ichi and ADK. I'll need to reread to see how they behaved towards the conf!townies.

Yep, this. shraeye should be a huge suspect today but NOT an auto-lynch. In fact, I don't think he's most likely to be scum. I just think he should be a strong candidate. I will most likely not want to lynch shraeye today.

Well, I do agree that it's nice to still have our PRs, only with the odd-night/even-night stuff they're not as strong.

How do we feel about a Doc claim, by the way? They can't use their power until N3, and having the claim now leaves scum with a hard decision whether to shoot the IC or hunt the Cop N2.

Notably, Faust was the one that brought up the doc claim.  And we all believed that would help us.  So I would think that counts as towny points.

[Witherweaver]

Gah, no, we have to pick something. vote: shraeye. That's L-1 on shraeye (which Nik didn't announce - Nik, it's bad form not to announce that the next vote will hammer/lynch someone).

If you want to vote shraeye, don't hammer him (or we lynch you tomorrow for being obv!scum). State intent to hammer, and then shraeye gets a chance to claim.

What is meant by 'hammer' and 'L-1?'

Why does Nik have to ask about L-1 again, after asking *twice* on day 1:

In that case I will unvote

The way Ichi goes back and forth with putting mcmc at L-1 is most interesting.

Umm...I'm sorry, what does L-1 mean? Also, what does Ichi have to do with me unvoting?

Again, what does L-1 mean?

It means that somebody is 1 vote away from being locked in as the lynch.  As soon as somebody reaches 5 votes (in general, it is the smallest integer that is > half the townsize), the day is over, although a brief twilight-period may exist where the thread is still open, and we can still post.  But the lynch has been decided at that point.

Plus hammering was talked about multiple times on day 1.

[Ichimaru Gin]

Why does Nik have to ask about L-1 again, after asking *twice* on day 1:

I agree that this is odd. Even the second time is slightly stretchy. It's interesting because he was pretty much branded a VT at the beginning of the game by mcmc and then Volt and enjoyed almost zero suspicion.

The question is, why would he ask this again? I think the other answers were more than sufficient.
Is it possible that this is newbie scum just trying to look completely lost, or is he legitimately confused?
After 2, now 3 explanations the re-asking of this question strikes me as scummy.

[Teproc]

Vote Count 2.3:

shraeye (3): Ichimaru Gin, Nik, Voltaire {L-1}
A Drowned Kernel (1) : Witherweaver

Not Voting (3): A Drowned Kernel, shraeye, faust

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 2 ends at 4:00 p.m. on April 8, 2014.

[Ichimaru Gin]

Interesting that our three scum-reads are the only ones not voting.

[Voltaire]

Not sure what to make of Voltaire's reaction to the flip, seems weird...

My main suspects right now are Ichi and ADK. I'll need to reread to see how they behaved towards the conf!townies.

Yep, this. shraeye should be a huge suspect today but NOT an auto-lynch. In fact, I don't think he's most likely to be scum. I just think he should be a strong candidate. I will most likely not want to lynch shraeye today.

Well, I do agree that it's nice to still have our PRs, only with the odd-night/even-night stuff they're not as strong.

How do we feel about a Doc claim, by the way? They can't use their power until N3, and having the claim now leaves scum with a hard decision whether to shoot the IC or hunt the Cop N2.

Notably, Faust was the one that brought up the doc claim.  And we all believed that would help us.  So I would think that counts as towny points.

I used to think this way, but then yuma swindled me in a game (forget which one) by bringing up a pro-town claiming plan on a late day. But...yuma isn't faust, and I sorta agree with you - faust talked me into thinking he's the least likely, because he showed up. Which could be an issue, but...we'll see.

[Voltaire]

Gah, no, we have to pick something. vote: shraeye. That's L-1 on shraeye (which Nik didn't announce - Nik, it's bad form not to announce that the next vote will hammer/lynch someone).

If you want to vote shraeye, don't hammer him (or we lynch you tomorrow for being obv!scum). State intent to hammer, and then shraeye gets a chance to claim.

What is meant by 'hammer' and 'L-1?'

Why does Nik have to ask about L-1 again, after asking *twice* on day 1:

In that case I will unvote

The way Ichi goes back and forth with putting mcmc at L-1 is most interesting.

Umm...I'm sorry, what does L-1 mean? Also, what does Ichi have to do with me unvoting?

Again, what does L-1 mean?

It means that somebody is 1 vote away from being locked in as the lynch.  As soon as somebody reaches 5 votes (in general, it is the smallest integer that is > half the townsize), the day is over, although a brief twilight-period may exist where the thread is still open, and we can still post.  But the lynch has been decided at that point.

Plus hammering was talked about multiple times on day 1.

unvote

Ah shit.

Nik, explanation? 'Cause this makes you look like 100% coached scum.

[Nik]

Gah, no, we have to pick something. vote: shraeye. That's L-1 on shraeye (which Nik didn't announce - Nik, it's bad form not to announce that the next vote will hammer/lynch someone).

If you want to vote shraeye, don't hammer him (or we lynch you tomorrow for being obv!scum). State intent to hammer, and then shraeye gets a chance to claim.

What is meant by 'hammer' and 'L-1?'

Why does Nik have to ask about L-1 again, after asking *twice* on day 1:

In that case I will unvote

The way Ichi goes back and forth with putting mcmc at L-1 is most interesting.

Umm...I'm sorry, what does L-1 mean? Also, what does Ichi have to do with me unvoting?

Again, what does L-1 mean?

It means that somebody is 1 vote away from being locked in as the lynch.  As soon as somebody reaches 5 votes (in general, it is the smallest integer that is > half the townsize), the day is over, although a brief twilight-period may exist where the thread is still open, and we can still post.  But the lynch has been decided at that point.

Plus hammering was talked about multiple times on day 1.

unvote

Ah shit.

Nik, explanation? 'Cause this makes you look like 100% coached scum.

Because I didn't really understand Sgraeye's explanation, and he first time it wasn't answered.

[Voltaire]

All of Nik's votes:

D1
shraeye (RVS)
DD (for not voting/lurking)
mcmc (finds scummy after shraeye fight, but says shraeye is also a scum read)
IG (no idea why, just says he "re-thought" IG)
mcmc (after being talked out of IG)
unvote (after mcmc's claim)
faust (lurking)
mcmc (sheeps shraeye)

D2
shraeye (b/c of mcmc's flip)
Voltaire (opening day glee)
unvote
Voltaire (says he doesn't get case on ADK)
unvote (now suddenly says ADK is scummy)
faust (lurking)
shraeye (not defending)

So Nik looks scummy as hell. His partner could easily be shraeye or ADK (or faust). He's never voted for WW, actually, but everyone else who is still alive. Dammit. It might not be this simple.

[Voltaire]

I meant ADK or faust, I think. Yeah. Not shraeye.

[Voltaire]

Shraeye said he had real-life commitments until Monday, so his absense is explained.  I had found ADK the most likely.

Really? Dammit.

Well, let's play conspiracy theory until then, but at the moment I think I want to lynch shraeye or ADK but more likely shraeye arrrrrrrrrrrrrgh. faust and ADK need to talk talk talk.

[A Drowned Kernel]

I'll admit that, availability issues nonwithstanding, I'm having a hard time engaging with this game because I'm so certain of my read on Voltaire, and to me it looks like a number of other players are letting him drive the discussion. So I suppose I would start with, non-Voltaire players, how likely do you think it is that Voltaire is scum? Are you willing to bet the game on him being town? Because it might come to that.

For his partner: Witherweaver seems like the most likely candidate. Unless they're pulling some kind of crazy bussing scheme, it's not shraeye. Faust is a real possibility, though. Volt has set up the whole "it's between ADK shraeye and faust thing," but it looks like he's being careful to keep Faust as the lowest-priority lynch candidate. There might be something there.

Entertaining the possibility of a world where Voltaire is town...

I don't know. That would have to mean, shraeye/faust? Or shraeye/WW or faust/WW. I don't believe Nik is scum, I really see him as newbie town rather than coached newbie scum, especially since we've proven pretty consistently on this forum that newbie slips draw so much suspicion.

I need a reread, I think.

[Voltaire]

I'll admit that, availability issues nonwithstanding, I'm having a hard time engaging with this game because I'm so certain of my read on Voltaire, and to me it looks like a number of other players are letting him drive the discussion. So I suppose I would start with, non-Voltaire players, how likely do you think it is that Voltaire is scum? Are you willing to bet the game on him being town? Because it might come to that.

If this is what you think, it really doesn't seem like you're pushing it very hard. You made the case, it didn't take, and you left. At least, that's what it looks like to me.

Faust is totally one of the lynch candidates, but the worst one at this point I think. Re-read me, I dare you to come up with something other than town me figuring that out.

If you're town, ADK, then the team is shraeye/faust or else we've messed up on WW or Nik. I'm now more confident WW is town than Nik, but both are.

[Witherweaver]

So I don't think I'll be lynching Voltaire today.. Almost certainly not.  I'm still keeping the possibility of him being scum in mind, but I think it's the least likely and I don't want to pursue it today.  If he's scum, he is really good at this, and his actions so far have been near perfect.  I have trouble seeing anyone pull it off that well.

  I wrote up (didn't post) an analysis with probabilities of us winning with Voltaire as scum, and I agree it's bleak, but still winnable.

Though, I did it assuming Nik was town, which I'm less sure about.

So, if you really think Voltaire is scum, ADK, would you be okay with going after his partner today?

[A Drowned Kernel]

I would have a hard time being convinced that that's a good idea. I'm very sure of him and not very sure of anyone else.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Considering the possibility that Volt is scum, who would you consider the most likely candidate for his partner?

[Voltaire]

F-f-f-f-f-feelin' better about scum!adk the more he posts.

Considering the possibility that Volt is scum, who would you consider the most likely candidate for his partner?

You need to answer this yourself first. Don't then agree with WW so you can try to get someone mislynched if it's not your partner.

[Voltaire]

Considering the possibility that Volt is scum, who would you consider the most likely candidate for his partner?

You need to answer this yourself first. Don't wait for WW to name someone, then agree with WW so you can try to get someone mislynched if it's not your partner.

Made that a bit clearer.

[A Drowned Kernel]

Honestly, as I said before, my eye is mostly on WW. But given that he's at least willing to engage me on the subject, I thought I'd see what his thoughts are.

[Witherweaver]

Honestly, as I said before, my eye is mostly on WW. But given that he's at least willing to engage me on the subject, I thought I'd see what his thoughts are.

I'd think if Voltaire and I were scum partners we wouldn't want to be so blatantly piggy-backing each other.

But I would like to see you answer the question first.  I know that I'm not scum so the possibility of Voltaire/me doesn't help at all.  I'd want to know what you think about Voltaire/Shraeye, Voltaire/Faust, and Voltaire/Nik.

I accept that you don't know I'm not scum (well, unless you are in fact scum), so you can make the Voltaire/me argument too, but that's not what I'm asking about.