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Author Topic: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Game Over : Mafia Wins !)  (Read 100828 times)

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faust

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #575 on: April 04, 2014, 06:07:31 pm »

I guess I should respond to this:


I think there is some more worth noting.  Both ADK and Faust seem to do a pretty great job on Day 1 of hedging suspicions and throwing out a lot of "seems kinda towny," and "seems kinda scummy" vibes.  Let's look at votes:

Where did I "hedge suspicions"? And what is wrong with giving reads? They are D1 reads, so you can't expect a solid case (look at our D1 to see where solid cases lead on D1...)

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He was never really vocal against anyone except Ichi.  Against McMc he says "the VT claim on top of everything else," but he never really established what "everything else" is.  He only ever said before that Shraeye comes off as slightly more towny in the Shraeye vs. McMc argument.

Yes, I was never really vocal against anyone except Ichi. Sorry, I don't usually build strong cases on D1. At least I thought I had something there with Ichi (turns out I was wrong).

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Hammering here seems very safe.  He established some doubt against McMc and then established the VT claim as a perfectly valid reason to hammer, even if he doesn't believe McMc is scum, which he never made a case for until McMc claimed VT.

It should be blatantly obvious that "everything else" here refers to shraeye's case. Otherwise, I'm not sure what you're saying here? Should I not have hammered? I did think mcmc was likely scum.
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faust

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #576 on: April 04, 2014, 06:11:47 pm »

I know nothing of Shraeye's meta.  What do you know?  Why do you think he would not do this as scum?

In my first scum game here, M31, I was partners with shraeye. Now I can't pull out what in shraeye's behaviour there was different from here with exact quotes, but it sure did feel different. You can look at it yourself; unfortunately, I think it is the longest mafia game thread in this forum. But shraeye died N1 there, so that makes things easier.
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #577 on: April 04, 2014, 07:47:00 pm »

I guess I should respond to this:


I think there is some more worth noting.  Both ADK and Faust seem to do a pretty great job on Day 1 of hedging suspicions and throwing out a lot of "seems kinda towny," and "seems kinda scummy" vibes.  Let's look at votes:

Where did I "hedge suspicions"? And what is wrong with giving reads? They are D1 reads, so you can't expect a solid case (look at our D1 to see where solid cases lead on D1...)

So, you not saying anything for certain and just observing and making noncommittal comments frees you up to put your vote wherever you want later.  Okay, yes, the behavior makes sense for a town that is trying to figure stuff out, but it also makes sense as hedging. 

He was never really vocal against anyone except Ichi.  Against McMc he says "the VT claim on top of everything else," but he never really established what "everything else" is.  He only ever said before that Shraeye comes off as slightly more towny in the Shraeye vs. McMc argument.

Yes, I was never really vocal against anyone except Ichi. Sorry, I don't usually build strong cases on D1. At least I thought I had something there with Ichi (turns out I was wrong).

This establishes a narrative of you setting up future mislynches.  Ichi was on the wagon for McMc, in fact in a pretty definitive position, since he was putting McMc on and off L-1.  So you can jump on McMc without making it blatently obvious, and then go back and say you were wrong about McMc, but your hammer still made sense, but hey look how scummy Ichi was!


Hammering here seems very safe.  He established some doubt against McMc and then established the VT claim as a perfectly valid reason to hammer, even if he doesn't believe McMc is scum, which he never made a case for until McMc claimed VT.

It should be blatantly obvious that "everything else" here refers to shraeye's case. Otherwise, I'm not sure what you're saying here? Should I not have hammered? I did think mcmc was likely scum.

Yes, that was obvious that you meant that.

You see, the problem is that you said this as if you were behind Shraeye's case, and you bought into that case.  You never expressed anything but skepticism before.  So the only point you have against McMc is that he claimed vanilla town.  But you throw in extra stuff, so it seems like you're trying to pad the reasons to your vote in case it comes into question---which you would know for certain that it will if you were scum, because you would have known McMc is town.
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #578 on: April 04, 2014, 07:47:25 pm »

I know nothing of Shraeye's meta.  What do you know?  Why do you think he would not do this as scum?

In my first scum game here, M31, I was partners with shraeye. Now I can't pull out what in shraeye's behaviour there was different from here with exact quotes, but it sure did feel different. You can look at it yourself; unfortunately, I think it is the longest mafia game thread in this forum. But shraeye died N1 there, so that makes things easier.

I'll look at it.  Though I was actually more interested in games where Shraeye was town.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #579 on: April 04, 2014, 08:55:41 pm »

Voltaire, question for you: Have you ever considered that this game is so quiet because scum sees you leading town into their doom?

Yes, I have.
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faust

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #580 on: April 04, 2014, 09:08:45 pm »


You're experiencing a serios case of confirmation bias here. Either that, or you are scum trying to push my mislynch. Right now, I'm more inclined to believe the first.

You view every single action I took here as scummy and invent reasons why that would be a good thing for scum to do. You're completely ignoring the other side - that those things were good for town to do as well. Look at my posts without bias, and you should manage to see the town narrative. By the time I hammered mcmc, it was quite clear that an Ichi lynch wasn't happening that day. That is why I joined the mcmc wagon, not because of some long-term setting up of mislynches. I doubt that setting up mislynches even is a thing scum wants to do.
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #581 on: April 04, 2014, 09:14:37 pm »


You're experiencing a serios case of confirmation bias here. Either that, or you are scum trying to push my mislynch. Right now, I'm more inclined to believe the first.

You view every single action I took here as scummy and invent reasons why that would be a good thing for scum to do. You're completely ignoring the other side - that those things were good for town to do as well. Look at my posts without bias, and you should manage to see the town narrative. By the time I hammered mcmc, it was quite clear that an Ichi lynch wasn't happening that day. That is why I joined the mcmc wagon, not because of some long-term setting up of mislynches. I doubt that setting up mislynches even is a thing scum wants to do.

I'm creating a narrative where you're scum to check if it makes sense.  If it does not hold, that is a good indication that you are not. That does not mean I'm assuming it to be true or that I'm not considering the other possibilities.

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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #582 on: April 04, 2014, 09:15:18 pm »

Voltaire, question for you: Have you ever considered that this game is so quiet because scum sees you leading town into their doom?

Yes, I have.

And though it is obviously concerning, WW's activity has me feeling much better. Because he'd need to be one of the scum in that scenario.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #583 on: April 04, 2014, 11:38:51 pm »

Hmm. Faust's last couple of posts actually seem pretty towny to me. Uh. This is really hard to decide.

Perhaps we should look into which person will eliminate the largest number of likely scumteam combinations.

Shraeye, I think hasn't really done a good job of defending himself.

Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #584 on: April 04, 2014, 11:40:12 pm »

Perhaps we should look into which person will eliminate the largest number of likely scumteam combinations.

Shraeye, I think hasn't really done a good job of defending himself.

This is fine with me. vote: shraeye.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #585 on: April 04, 2014, 11:40:56 pm »

Actually wait, does he eliminate the most combinations?

faust/shraeye - quite possible
shraeye/ADK - most probable
ADK/faust - possible

So...yes?
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #586 on: April 04, 2014, 11:41:22 pm »

And he's a vet, so situations where we're getting swindled by Nik/WW are covered (at least 50%, faust is the other).
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #587 on: April 04, 2014, 11:47:00 pm »

I'll vote: Shraeye.

Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #588 on: April 04, 2014, 11:48:17 pm »

That's L-2 on shraeye.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #589 on: April 04, 2014, 11:49:39 pm »

That's L-2 on shraeye.

Ahh. Thank you, I wasn't paying attention.

Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #590 on: April 04, 2014, 11:50:47 pm »

That's L-2 on shraeye.

Ahh. Thank you, I wasn't paying attention.

Small # alive, tiny to lynch (4), so our 2 votes already have him there. Which is fine, we just need to allow for claim/counter-claim if necessary.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #591 on: April 04, 2014, 11:55:57 pm »

That's L-2 on shraeye.

Ahh. Thank you, I wasn't paying attention.

Small # alive, tiny to lynch (4), so our 2 votes already have him there. Which is fine, we just need to allow for claim/counter-claim if necessary.

Oh, yes--I missed that.

And that was one thing I was going to say. I really hope Shraeye isn't the cop, because that could kind of suck. I don't think he is though. Even if, that would mean that we'd get even better lynch-odds today. They'd kill Shraeye tonight, so I'd survive til tomorrow--yeah either way I think scum is pretty screwed.

Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #592 on: April 04, 2014, 11:59:26 pm »

Yup yup yup yup! This is why I have been so confident/happy.
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Nik

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #593 on: April 05, 2014, 08:20:51 am »

Yeah, Shraeye is not defending himself and just rambling. Vote: Shraeye
Faust seems more towny, but I'm keeping a close eye on him.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #594 on: April 05, 2014, 09:45:36 am »

unvote

I had stress dreams about this. Let me take today to think about it more.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #595 on: April 05, 2014, 09:50:48 am »

Gah, no, we have to pick something. vote: shraeye. That's L-1 on shraeye (which Nik didn't announce - Nik, it's bad form not to announce that the next vote will hammer/lynch someone).

If you want to vote shraeye, don't hammer him (or we lynch you tomorrow for being obv!scum). State intent to hammer, and then shraeye gets a chance to claim.
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #596 on: April 05, 2014, 10:36:25 am »

Why is Shraeye more likely than anyone else?
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Nik

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #597 on: April 05, 2014, 11:24:20 am »

Gah, no, we have to pick something. vote: shraeye. That's L-1 on shraeye (which Nik didn't announce - Nik, it's bad form not to announce that the next vote will hammer/lynch someone).

If you want to vote shraeye, don't hammer him (or we lynch you tomorrow for being obv!scum). State intent to hammer, and then shraeye gets a chance to claim.
What is meant by 'hammer' and 'L-1?'
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #598 on: April 05, 2014, 11:36:07 am »

Gah, no, we have to pick something. vote: shraeye. That's L-1 on shraeye (which Nik didn't announce - Nik, it's bad form not to announce that the next vote will hammer/lynch someone).

If you want to vote shraeye, don't hammer him (or we lynch you tomorrow for being obv!scum). State intent to hammer, and then shraeye gets a chance to claim.
What is meant by 'hammer' and 'L-1?'
L-1 means that it takes only one more vote to lynch someone.
Hammer means casting the final vote that gets someone lynched.
No-one should hammer (cast another vote on Shraeye) until he has had a chance to claim.

Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #599 on: April 05, 2014, 11:38:08 am »

Why is Shraeye more likely than anyone else?

unvote I knew I wasn't thinking things through. faust/shraeye I find pretty damn unlikely, so what the hell am I doing?

vote: ADK
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