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Author Topic: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Game Over : Mafia Wins !)  (Read 100829 times)

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Nik

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #450 on: April 01, 2014, 06:49:43 pm »

Sweet, VT death. Off to re-read now that we have another flip. Cool cool cool cool cool. I actually feel good about this.
That's not scummy?

I'd like to hear you explain why it is.
He feels good about a VT dying.

Nik is 100% obviously town. We are absolutely not lynching him.

This is a bad/incorrect/wrong line of reasoning, but it is one that only town thinks (especially new town).
If this is really an incorrect line of reasoning, then I'll just Unvote for now.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #451 on: April 01, 2014, 06:58:47 pm »

I've thought about claiming more.

Let's say that the Doc claims today. Those of us who are town, and not the Doc, now have a 2/5 chance of lynching scum (this gets better based on our reads). Gives us decent odds of lynching scum today. If we lynch scum today, everything is fine and dandy.

But what if we lynch another VT? Scum then is faced with the choice of either killing the Doc or hunting for the Cop. Let's say they kill the doc.

D3 will dawn with 5 players left. 2 are scum, 1 is the Cop, and 2 are VTs. The Cop will have a result on someone - if it's scum, we will have a choice to make. Because it is LyLo (lynch wrong and lose), scum will also claim to be the Cop and have a result on someone. The good news is that in this worst-case scenario, we have a 50/50 chance (improved by our reads). That's not too bad.

What if scum got lucky and killed the Cop? Then D3 is 2 scum, 1 doc, 2 VTs. But the doc is actually an IC (known town) so we can't mislynch him, and scum don't have the opportunity to fakeclaim doc (because the doc claimed today, D2). The VTs have 2/3 odds of lynching scum. And the doc has a chance of stopping the kill at night (only if we get it right, if we don't then that's an endgame scenario because eventually the doc won't get it right and scum have a majority of town).

These are the scenarios where we mislynch today and the doc has claimed. I think they're both pretty good.

What if the doc doesn't claim and we mislynch today? If a VT dies overnight, 5 players left, 1 cop 1 doc 1 VT 2 scum. Scum will totally fakeclaim a PR. 50/50 odds again.

If they kill the cop, D3 is 2 VTs 1 doc 2 scum. Scum fakeclaim (probably). 50/50 odds?
If they kill the doc, D3 is 2 VTs 1 cop 2 scum. Scum fakeclaim because they have to because the cop has results.

So actually I'm ambivalent on if the doc claims but I lean yes. What I haven't commented on yet is that we will have the benefit of an IC doc for the rest of today, plus their interactions on D1 to re-read and know.

So, doc should exercise their own judgement on claiming today. It might be a good idea. At worst, it is an indifferent idea.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #452 on: April 01, 2014, 07:01:18 pm »

If this is really an incorrect line of reasoning, then I'll just Unvote for now.

Basically Nik, if I were scum, I would know better than to post something like that. Now, you can argue for WIFOM (maybe I'm scum and I want you to think like that).

But from my point of view, this is strong evidence you are town. (along with other stuff about the way you've played from D1).
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #453 on: April 01, 2014, 07:06:59 pm »

Unless, of course, he was coached to say this.

It reads just crazily naturally. People always say "maybe they were coached! Maybe it's a ploy!" but those are actually hard to pull off. It's hard to act like a town newbie when you're actually a scum newbie.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #454 on: April 01, 2014, 07:07:32 pm »

And by that I mean, they'll drop the act accidentally or unaccidentally at some point.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #455 on: April 01, 2014, 07:10:03 pm »

But what about me? I still haven't re-read. I'm looking at, prior to that:

Nik - town
Witherweaver - probably town
Ichimaru Gin - ???
A Drowned Kernel - scummy
shraeye - huge enigma
faust - ???
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shraeye

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #456 on: April 02, 2014, 10:14:18 am »

Ok just got out of an econ test. On my way home. I should be back in approx. 1 hour.

My question? Why did scum kill deleuze? I know analysing nightkills isn't really a thing, but it's just not what I would have expected based off my reads.
what would you have expected based on your reads?
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shraeye

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #457 on: April 02, 2014, 10:19:25 am »

I don't know exactly what to think of having the doc claim.
So he doesn't get to use his power again until night 3. And I agree that would make a good dilemma for scum and also slightly increase the odds of the cop investigating scum.

So volt is 100% for it but ADK has some doubts. I must admit, I am really mentally exhausted right now, and don't exactly have much of an opinion on the subject.
However, it all comes down to how it will help/hurt town. So does everyone else think?
Doc should use own judgement.  There are upsides and downsides to claiming, and upsides/downsides to staying silent.  The correct path is not clear, opinions can and should vary.
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #458 on: April 02, 2014, 10:27:06 am »

I don't know exactly what to think of having the doc claim.
So he doesn't get to use his power again until night 3. And I agree that would make a good dilemma for scum and also slightly increase the odds of the cop investigating scum.

So volt is 100% for it but ADK has some doubts. I must admit, I am really mentally exhausted right now, and don't exactly have much of an opinion on the subject.
However, it all comes down to how it will help/hurt town. So does everyone else think?
Doc should use own judgement.  There are upsides and downsides to claiming, and upsides/downsides to staying silent.  The correct path is not clear, opinions can and should vary.

I'm thinking doctor claiming helps us more than it helps scum.  It doesn't really give them any additional info,* but it gives us a known.  I think fakeclaiming would be worse for them, so they probably shouldn't.   

*It does tell them where the cop is not, so it increases their chances of hunting the cop amongst the remaining town (so they have a 1/4 chance instead of a 1/5 chance).  If they nightkill the cop, his role will be revealed to us the next day, right?  So they could not claim to be the cop?
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shraeye

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #459 on: April 02, 2014, 10:28:17 am »

yes, any player killed by mafia will have their role revealed, like Del's was at the start of today.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #460 on: April 02, 2014, 10:44:30 am »

Ok just got out of an econ test. On my way home. I should be back in approx. 1 hour.

My question? Why did scum kill deleuze? I know analysing nightkills isn't really a thing, but it's just not what I would have expected based off my reads.
what would you have expected based on your reads?

Well I was expecting either you or Volt since you both seem like pretty active (and veteran) members of town. But I do see the benefit of eliminating people who are unlikely to be mislynched though.

Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #461 on: April 02, 2014, 03:02:38 pm »

Unless, of course, he was coached to say this.

It reads just crazily naturally. People always say "maybe they were coached! Maybe it's a ploy!" but those are actually hard to pull off. It's hard to act like a town newbie when you're actually a scum newbie.

Well I wouldn't have brought it up if it wasn't already talked about earlier.  It made me think, well, if there were something a scum newbie would be coached to say by a scum vet, this would be it.

My problem is, his reaction doesn't make any sense if he just thought about it for a few seconds.  So, yes, he's a newbie, but I'm a newbie too.  It's like he's actively trying to sound more ignorant.

You may be right, but my main point here is that maybe we shouldn't automatically jump to Nik being certain town read.
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #462 on: April 02, 2014, 03:05:08 pm »

Sweet, VT death. Off to re-read now that we have another flip. Cool cool cool cool cool. I actually feel good about this.
That's not scummy?

I'd like to hear you explain why it is.
He feels good about a VT dying.

Nik is 100% obviously town. We are absolutely not lynching him.

This is a bad/incorrect/wrong line of reasoning, but it is one that only town thinks (especially new town).
If this is really an incorrect line of reasoning, then I'll just Unvote for now.

But don't you know whether or not it's an incorrect line of reasoning?  And you vote Voltaire, then Voltaire tells you that your reasoning is wrong, so you automatically unvote? 

I'd like to hear some more explanation.
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Teproc

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #463 on: April 02, 2014, 05:14:19 pm »

Vote Count 2.1:

A Drowned Kernel (1) : Voltaire

Not Voting (6): Nik, Witherweaver, Ichimaru Gin, A Drowned Kernel, shraeye, faust

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 2 ends at 4:00 p.m. on April 8, 2014.

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Nik

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #464 on: April 02, 2014, 08:13:12 pm »

Sweet, VT death. Off to re-read now that we have another flip. Cool cool cool cool cool. I actually feel good about this.
That's not scummy?

I'd like to hear you explain why it is.
He feels good about a VT dying.

Nik is 100% obviously town. We are absolutely not lynching him.

This is a bad/incorrect/wrong line of reasoning, but it is one that only town thinks (especially new town).
If this is really an incorrect line of reasoning, then I'll just Unvote for now.

But don't you know whether or not it's an incorrect line of reasoning?  And you vote Voltaire, then Voltaire tells you that your reasoning is wrong, so you automatically unvote? 

I'd like to hear some more explanation.
Um...I didn't want people to think I was scum, but now I realize that was a big mistake.
I'm still going to keep my Unvote, since Volitare is looking less scummy.
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #465 on: April 03, 2014, 10:14:47 am »

Okay, this has been really quiet and I don't feel any more enlightened since day 2 began. 
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faust

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #466 on: April 03, 2014, 10:19:34 am »

Yes, this is very quiet, and it is at least partly my fault. So sorry for that, I'm having a busy week. I'm hoping I will have time for a targeted reread tomorrow.
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #467 on: April 03, 2014, 10:47:22 am »

There was a lot of talk of looking into Ichi/Faust if McMc turned out town.

Well, McMc turned out town, and no one has said anything about Ichi/Faust.

I don't have a read on Faust.  Can people explain why his actions indicated scumminess?

Okay, I want to get a vote out to move things along.  I liked my cute little argument that if both Ichi/ADK were town, then one would have been nightkilled because the consensus feeling was leading to lynching the other during the next day.  It's probably too cute to be actually correct.  But I find it interesting that ADK replied to that argument by not addressing it, but by instead addressing the either/or in a scum-accusation argument, which was relevant to Shraeye/McMc but not Ichi/ADK.

ADK also had a very safe vote on Voltaire in day 1 and a confusing jump around between DeDe/Ichi, and then Voltaire. 

I'm going to Vote: A Drowned Kernel for now.

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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #468 on: April 03, 2014, 12:25:27 pm »

Actually re-reading right now.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #469 on: April 03, 2014, 01:10:48 pm »

It seems like Shraeye is being very aggressive and spreading confusion.  Maybe this is just his play style.. I'm not sure.  My read right now is scum.

He's asking a lot of questions and analyzing people's motivations, which I read as a more towny trait. shraeye's probably my strongest town read so far.

Why exactly do you think shraeye is town? Shraeye asks almost entirely questions as scum.

I don't have the same meta knowledge of him that you do so I won't know about that. I'm basing my town read on him off of his questions seeming pointed and insightful, though the thing with analyzing WW's post and "mc was just the first to post about it" does seem a little off.

ADK, can you point me to the D1 posts prior to this where shraeye is "pointed" and "insightful"? Especially if you think the WW post/mcmc thing was "a little off".
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #470 on: April 03, 2014, 01:23:39 pm »

It'd be nice to hear more from mcmc and shraeye.


town reads on: volt, nik, shraeye

null on: ww, adk, faust

possible scum: dd, mcmc,

Help me out here. Does this make IG more or less likely to be scum?
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #471 on: April 03, 2014, 01:30:19 pm »

So I have no IDEA what. the. jack. you are talking about.  I am in no way more "in the moment" now than I was then.  You're just making a hack-job of pretending to have a reason for reads.  Scum. Found.

vote: mcmc

shraeye, what do you think of the mcmc wagon/interactions now that he's flipped town?
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #472 on: April 03, 2014, 01:37:09 pm »

What would be the upshot for them?  That we lynch one of them today and don't suspect the other?  Seems kind of dangerous given that there are only two scum. (We know for certain that's the case?  And no third parties?)

And Cop can investigate the survivor on Night 2 and claim on Day 3.  Pretty much guaranteed town win unless they happen to kill the cop on Night 1 or Night 2.

WW, in the span of 8 minutes you appear to go from having no clue about the setup to knowing it in detail. How/why?
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #473 on: April 03, 2014, 01:43:37 pm »

Shraeye seemed towny to me before the fight, but his "trap" moves him into suspicious territory. mc seems a little scummy but mc always seems a little scummy, both my experiences playing with him I was certain he was scum and he ended up being town so I'm hesitant to vote for him. But I shouldn't be relying on meta knowledge, especially in a newbie game.

This is suspicious.  I have no "trap" set up.  mcmc did crazy stuff, I called him out.  then he did CRAZIER stuff.  And it just got worse from there. 

You're words on mcmc are the most waffling non-committal words of any commenter.  This is the way yuma came out as raerae's partner in Adventure Time mafia (a recent game that town won).  That position is very indicative of scum partner.  If mcmc flips scum, town should most definitely remember this interaction.

Aren't his words on you equally noncommittal?

This exchange, it fascinates me.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #474 on: April 03, 2014, 01:46:28 pm »

1. Nik - I get a  pretty bored townie read on him. Not a lot to comment on because he's been fairly inactive.
2. Witherweaver - I thought his questions where suspicious at first, but I'm getting a townie read on him now.
3. Delirious Deleuze - Definitely a town.
4. Ichimaru Gin - I think the case against me wasn't artificial, but that I was acting odd (because it was my first real post) and I think gin's response was genuine. I'm leaning townie.
5. mcmcsalot - I still feel very scummy here. I've posted above why. I still feel he's not really being responsive to anything we said about him eariler, or maybe it's just that I don't read his responses as true. I'm really leaning with Shraeye here. On top of that, Shraeye's form of questioning is made to force people to answer things, even if the questions aren't right. There answers give a lot away. It'd make sense that scum would start accusing the questioning shraeye to try to get him mislynched and then avoiding being discovered by shraeye's questions. I feel very scummy coming from MCMC, which is why my votes on him.
6. shraeye  - As above, I feel his questioning method is very townie and trying to get scum to reveal themselves through answers. I don't feel anything he did was really that scummy.
7. faust - null
8. Voltaire- null
9. ADK - I've noticed something weird, or at least I think I did. I've looked over his past posts, and his meta-paradigm or whatever usually is much more accusative or at the very least, he makes more new responses in other games.

In this game though, ADK has only been accusative when defending other players. He has never just argued someone is acting scummy, rather he sees someone else being accused of being scummy, defends them and while defending them says the other person is scummy. It happened when he defended me from Ichimaru Gin, it happened when Gin and I talked about the conspiracy. I think this behavior could be neutral (he really is trying to be safe and defend people) or maybe he's trying a new meta this game, but I definitely think it's suspicious and feels scummy to me.

In all,

Scummy: MCMC
Possible Scum: ADK, Ichimaru Gin,
Null: Faust, Voltaire
Townie: WW, DeDe, Nik, Shraeye

PPE 3: I don't agree that ADK is more scummy than MCMC but he's definitely fishy. Then again, I don't have a very large meta-knowledge here
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