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Author Topic: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Game Over : Mafia Wins !)  (Read 100793 times)

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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #300 on: March 29, 2014, 06:13:54 pm »

I now have a pretty big town read on WW and Nik, and I am leaning town on shraeye.

So you have town reads on: Shraeye, Nik, ww, and mcmc?

Never mind I missed this

I am leaning towards lynching mcmc now.

Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #301 on: March 29, 2014, 06:15:55 pm »

I want mcmc to defend himself against this post by shraeye. I am leaning towards lynching mcmc now.

I literally found ADK scummy because of interactions.  The very interactions you just said I wasn't looking at.  You're spouting off generic ready-made reasons that I'm scummy and people should discredit me, and not even bothering to see if they're accurate.

Don't you want him to claim?
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #302 on: March 29, 2014, 06:16:10 pm »

I now have a pretty big town read on WW and Nik, and I am leaning town on shraeye.

So you have town reads on: Shraeye, Nik, ww, and mcmc?

I see you saw it, but to explain why I now feel bad about mcmc, the post I quoted by shraeye is a big problem, and independently I am finding shraeye more likely to be town (he brought up that he is frequently nightkilled - why tell that to newbies who will then grow suspicious as he keeps living, if he's scum? WIFOM and all that, but it doesn't seem like something you need to do).

I'm not 100% convinced mcmc is scum, I still want to hear from him, and there are other people I'd be happy lynching, but mcmc is now a good lynch in my book.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #303 on: March 29, 2014, 06:17:01 pm »

I want mcmc to defend himself against this post by shraeye. I am leaning towards lynching mcmc now.

I literally found ADK scummy because of interactions.  The very interactions you just said I wasn't looking at.  You're spouting off generic ready-made reasons that I'm scummy and people should discredit me, and not even bothering to see if they're accurate.

Don't you want him to claim?

Yes, I want him to claim. My post was unclear - by "now", I mean, I now think he is scum whereas earlier I thought he was town.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #304 on: March 29, 2014, 10:37:11 pm »

So I just did my first massive re-read of the thread, and I've come away with some thoughts.

First, shraeye and mc: I don't think that I'm comfortable lynching either of them today. Looking back, I think that mc's characteristic of shraeye's question as a "trap", which I initially bought into, is incorrect. shraeye asks a lot of questions, and when he gets satisfactory answers, he accepts (or at least stops talking about them, which I assume is him accepting them). If he was scum looking to trap someone, I think that he would have been a lot quicker to jump on an answer and paint it as scummy for a mislynch.

That said, I think the case on mc is overblown. What the whole case comes down to is, he changed his mind. People change their minds. I think town is more likely to change their minds than scum is, since scum knows what alignment everyone really is and has to keep track of their artificially constructed reads. Yes, he acted abrasively towards shraeye, but I think that's well within his personality.

A couple of people who came off looking slightly scummier than I remembered are Ichi and DeDe, who seem to get very defensive when any suspicion floats their way. Yes, it's to be expected from newbies, but emotion is something that scum relies on, and a newbie scum is just as likely to react emotionally as newbie town.

There's something that DeDe brought up, which is my behavior in previous mafia games. The very first mafia game I played was Super Mario Bros, where mafia won due to a very persuasive and active scum player talking town into a series of mislynches. The whole thing left me very frightened, possibly unreasonably so, of early game mislynches.

All that said, the player who came across scummiest to me on my reread was Voltaire. He puts on a very helpful and reasonable persona, all while hanging back and giving pretty ambivalent reads on everyone. It's only once a number of people are on the mc wagon that he starts backing it up. shraeye's scum read on mc was based on his own thinking, which makes me more inclined to believe that he's mistaken town, while Volt is pushing the wagon long after it's gotten started, and is still hedging his bets with his "I'm not sure he's scum but I'll lynch him anyway."

Vote: Voltaire
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #305 on: March 29, 2014, 10:42:24 pm »

ADK, I don't know the alignment of anyone, and I don't have strong reads right now. It is better that I be honest than feign certainty. You know who is certain? Scum. They already know all the alignments.
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mcmcsalot

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #306 on: March 30, 2014, 01:53:45 am »

Oh goodness, Adk thank you so much for understanding.

Voltaire I dot really know how to "defend" shraeye's most recent post.

I'm town and I have my feelings and shraeye argues/disagrees with everything I say. Everyone seems to believe him so just lynch me. I'm a tv but I'm so done with just getting suspected and lynched every god damn game because I'm always a good lunch even when your bt sure I'm scum. Point is I'm a shitty lynch and I'll keep being one. Lynch shraeye, I think he's scum for how furiously he's tried to get me lynched, a towny isn't so set in their ways.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #307 on: March 30, 2014, 02:01:50 am »

Oh goodness, Adk thank you so much for understanding.

Voltaire I dot really know how to "defend" shraeye's most recent post.

I'm town and I have my feelings and shraeye argues/disagrees with everything I say. Everyone seems to believe him so just lynch me. I'm a tv but I'm so done with just getting suspected and lynched every god damn game because I'm always a good lunch even when your bt sure I'm scum. Point is I'm a shitty lynch and I'll keep being one. Lynch shraeye, I think he's scum for how furiously he's tried to get me lynched, a towny isn't so set in their ways.

Now I really don't know what to think. I hear genuine frustration here. And from what I've heard of your meta, this completely makes sense if you get mislynched a lot.

Is this the way that scum would respond? I hear really frustrated town.

unvote

Although I still find ADK scummy.

Nik

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #308 on: March 30, 2014, 07:23:30 am »

Ahh! I don't know what to do! Mcmcsalot did indeed defend himself, but he was a bit of a martyr, or maybe he was just frustrated, or maybe the whole thing is a ploy, but now it feels like he is scummier now, except I feel actual frustration in his post, and this definitely needs a semicolon right now but who cares?
I guess I'll Unvote?
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #309 on: March 30, 2014, 02:54:07 pm »

Where's the third unvote? :P

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #310 on: March 30, 2014, 03:13:46 pm »

Vote Count 1.9:

mcmcsalot (2): shraeye, Delirious Deleuze
Ichimaru Gin (1): faust
shraeye (1): mcmcsalot
faust (1): Voltaire
Voltaire (1): A Drowned Kernel

Not Voting (3): Witherweaver, Ichimaru Gin, Nik

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Day 1 ends at 12:00 p.m. on April 1, 2014 (in ~45 hours).
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #311 on: March 30, 2014, 03:27:17 pm »

So I'm thinking it may not be a great idea to push more people to close to lynching and get them to claim.

We can be sure that McMc isn't cop or doctor, because he would have claimed if he was.  If he is vanilla town, that cuts out 3 candidates (2 scum and McMc) for the scum team. That leaves them with 6 people who they know to contain two power roles.  If we lynch McMc, then scum has a 33% chance of killing a power role tonight (slightly less because the doctor can protect someone, but the doctor has a lot less information than the scum team does). 

Now if we bring someone else to claiming (call this person Claim2), and they claim vanilla town, then scum team knows the two power roles are in a set of five people. If we lynch that person, and he is vanilla town, then scum has a 40% chance of hitting a power role.

If we bring someone to claim and they claim doctor or cop, then I think this is worse for us.  First, we will choose to lynch someone else, and that person will claim.  So now scum has three additional pieces of information: McMc is vanilla town, Claim2 is power role, and Claim3 is whatever.  Suppose Claim3 claims vanilla town and we lynch him.  Then scum knows a power role is in Claim2 and that McMc and Claim3 are vanilla.  If Claim2 is doctor, then (I think) he cannot protect himself so he dies tonight.  If Claim2 is cop, then doctor will protect cop tonight, and scum has a 25% chance (one in four) of targeting the doctor out of the remaining townies.  Then cop can easily die tomorrow night because doctor can only protect odd nights.  So we gain nothing from cop.

If Claim3 were a power role, then scum knows everything.. they target doctor tonight (again assuming he can't protect himself) and cop tomorrow night.  We get nothing from both roles.  This would be worse case scenario, I think.

So I don't know.. it seems that getting people to claim on day 1 is dangerous for us.  Even if they're not power roles, it narrows the field down for the scum team, and they already have a pretty small field from which to choose.   

Of course if Claim2 is mafia, then that is obviously great for us.  So I think if we choose to go away from McMc we better be pretty sure about it. 

Thoughts?
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mcmcsalot

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #312 on: March 30, 2014, 04:37:00 pm »

yea sorry my typing was poor I am a vt(vanilla townie) not a tv
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #313 on: March 30, 2014, 05:07:58 pm »

yea sorry my typing was poor I am a vt(vanilla townie) not a tv

I don't think anyone thought you were a transvestite :P
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #314 on: March 30, 2014, 05:09:42 pm »

So mcmc's claiming vt. What does everyone make of this?

The deadline is coming up pretty soon. And a lot of people haven't posted anything since mcmc's claim.

He's advocating a Shraeye lynch, but I don't really see that happening.

I'm going to vote: ADK for now. As he was my other scum read. Also, his last post just looks like a wild, completely screwing any existing wagons gambit. He may be right on mcmc, but I really don't see why he voted for Voltaire. He's voting him for being "too helpful" and "noncommital", but really there hasn't been a lot of content or any damning evidence, so I am more wary of people with super strong reads.

PPE: ww

 ???

Nik

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #315 on: March 30, 2014, 05:15:04 pm »

I'm going to Vote:Faust. He has been lurking and his posts have little or no content.
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Delirious Deleuze

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #316 on: March 30, 2014, 05:38:04 pm »

He puts on a very helpful and reasonable persona, all while hanging back and giving pretty ambivalent reads on everyone. It's only once a number of people are on the mc wagon that he starts backing it up...........Volt is pushing the wagon long after it's gotten started, and is still hedging his bets with his "I'm not sure he's scum but I'll lynch him anyway."
Vote: Voltaire

I really don't think volt is being ambivalent. He clearly says he thinks MCMC is scum, even if it's not 100%. And given that people were just discussing why it's good to lynch even if it's   mislynch a few posts before, how he followed up saying he wasn't a hundred percent makes a lot of sense.

I now have a pretty big town read on WW and Nik, and I am leaning town on shraeye.

So you have town reads on: Shraeye, Nik, ww, and mcmc?

I see you saw it, but to explain why I now feel bad about mcmc, the post I quoted by shraeye is a big problem, and independently I am finding shraeye more likely to be town (he brought up that he is frequently nightkilled - why tell that to newbies who will then grow suspicious as he keeps living, if he's scum? WIFOM and all that, but it doesn't seem like something you need to do).

I'm not 100% convinced mcmc is scum, I still want to hear from him, and there are other people I'd be happy lynching, but mcmc is now a good lynch in my book.

What I think is more surprising is that ADK, throughout this entire game, keeps only attacking people while defending people. This seems like a good ploy for scum too. He is able to defend a player, say "no they're not being scummy!" While flipping it around and attacking the person who is was attacking first. It allows hi to seem good to the town, while not being too aggressive, and he still gets to create confusion and mislynch.

I brought up his meta history. He shows another game he has played and said he's now just paranoid, but I don't think that really follows. If he was really paranoid of early mislynch es, he wouldn't be making these obviously faulty cases against people (like accusing Ichimaru gin of being too generic when he attacked me, accusing me of making a conspiracy (and them realizing he didn't read carefully enough and attacking Ichimaru gin), and now he's protecting MCMC and switching his vote to a very unstable case against Voltaire.)

I think he's very scummy, maybe even more than MCMC.

vote: ADK
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #317 on: March 30, 2014, 09:23:28 pm »

A-ok with a vote: ADK. I just drove 6 hours so I'm not up for digging deep at this point, can reply/follow in more detail tomorrow.
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shraeye

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #318 on: March 30, 2014, 10:49:24 pm »

So I'm thinking it may not be a great idea to push more people to close to lynching and get them to claim.

We can be sure that McMc isn't cop or doctor, because he would have claimed if he was.  If he is vanilla town, that cuts out 3 candidates (2 scum and McMc) for the scum team. That leaves them with 6 people who they know to contain two power roles.  If we lynch McMc, then scum has a 33% chance of killing a power role tonight (slightly less because the doctor can protect someone, but the doctor has a lot less information than the scum team does). 

Now if we bring someone else to claiming (call this person Claim2), and they claim vanilla town, then scum team knows the two power roles are in a set of five people. If we lynch that person, and he is vanilla town, then scum has a 40% chance of hitting a power role.

If we bring someone to claim and they claim doctor or cop, then I think this is worse for us.  First, we will choose to lynch someone else, and that person will claim.  So now scum has three additional pieces of information: McMc is vanilla town, Claim2 is power role, and Claim3 is whatever.  Suppose Claim3 claims vanilla town and we lynch him.  Then scum knows a power role is in Claim2 and that McMc and Claim3 are vanilla.  If Claim2 is doctor, then (I think) he cannot protect himself so he dies tonight.  If Claim2 is cop, then doctor will protect cop tonight, and scum has a 25% chance (one in four) of targeting the doctor out of the remaining townies.  Then cop can easily die tomorrow night because doctor can only protect odd nights.  So we gain nothing from cop.

If Claim3 were a power role, then scum knows everything.. they target doctor tonight (again assuming he can't protect himself) and cop tomorrow night.  We get nothing from both roles.  This would be worse case scenario, I think.

So I don't know.. it seems that getting people to claim on day 1 is dangerous for us.  Even if they're not power roles, it narrows the field down for the scum team, and they already have a pretty small field from which to choose.   

Of course if Claim2 is mafia, then that is obviously great for us.  So I think if we choose to go away from McMc we better be pretty sure about it. 

Thoughts?
Stop.  This is the right idea.  Don't go run up somebody else because mcmc sounded frustrated and claimed VT.  caught scum also has a very legitimate reason to sound frustrated.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #319 on: March 30, 2014, 10:54:16 pm »

I believe mcmc's frustration, though. If another person claims today, we lynch either them or mcmc. If we run up the cop, sorry mcmc, you're the lynch, and so forth (another VT claim, we decide between them). WW has the right of it. WW is my biggest town read right now.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #320 on: March 30, 2014, 10:55:23 pm »

shraeye, would you be fine lynching ADK instead?
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mcmcsalot

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #321 on: March 30, 2014, 10:57:49 pm »

I will reread tomorow and see if i think adk/faust are a good lynch.

does no one think shaeye is scummy for how persistent in trying to get me lynched he is?
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shraeye

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #322 on: March 30, 2014, 10:59:08 pm »

I need to read. I'd much rather lynch mcmc; i'm 100% positive of his scuminess.  He's been attacking me with nothing more than hot-button generic-scummy things that I'm not actually doing at all.  His position on me has jumped back and forth and also not been in line with any of the actual evidence.  He repeatedly refuses to defend or back up his statements that I've already pointed out are contradictory, instead resorting to ad hominem attacks and blatant AtE. 

His frustration could absolutely be legitimate.  No doubt.  But I'm sure that he is frustrated scum.  If we turn somewhere else and run up the doctor or the cop, we are screwing ourselves.  Hard.  There is no reason to do that in the face of such an overwhelming reason to lynch mcmc.
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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #323 on: March 30, 2014, 11:01:32 pm »

I need to read. I'd much rather lynch mcmc; i'm 100% positive of his scuminess.  He's been attacking me with nothing more than hot-button generic-scummy things that I'm not actually doing at all.  His position on me has jumped back and forth and also not been in line with any of the actual evidence.  He repeatedly refuses to defend or back up his statements that I've already pointed out are contradictory, instead resorting to ad hominem attacks and blatant AtE. 

His frustration could absolutely be legitimate.  No doubt.  But I'm sure that he is frustrated scum.  If we turn somewhere else and run up the doctor or the cop, we are screwing ourselves.  Hard.  There is no reason to do that in the face of such an overwhelming reason to lynch mcmc.

Well I must say, after ww's analysis and the fact that mcmc claimed vt--it's not like we have much to lose. Which we do if we happen to run up the cop or doctor, then yes--we're pretty screwed.

But I do interpret his frustration as townie, and you are pushing his lynch pretty hard. . .I'm not exactly sure what to think.

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #324 on: March 30, 2014, 11:02:55 pm »

Shraeye recent attack on Adk still feels to me like he's trying to force lynches and make as many people look scummy as he can as opposed to lookin at interactions a simply trying to figure out if players are scummy or towny.

I will reread tomorow and see if i think adk/faust are a good lynch.

does no one think shaeye is scummy for how persistent in trying to get me lynched he is?
Case in point.  Mcmc is still not defending a single thing.  However he is appealing to the fact that my bullheadedness in his lynch is scummy.  Even though his argument yesterday was that I was trying to make as many people as possible be scummy.  Those two thoughts that he is ascribing to me are incongruous. 

I'm bullheaded.  I'm persistent.  That's not scummy, it's who shraeye is.  It does not change the fact that I'm right.  And I'm right.  As I said to Robz before...I'm ON in terms of mafia reads.  I believe fully in this lynch.  I want mcmc's head.
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