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Author Topic: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Game Over : Mafia Wins !)  (Read 100840 times)

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Ichimaru Gin

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #550 on: April 03, 2014, 11:08:39 pm »

I really, really want to here from faust. His thoughts I think will really help in terms of what he thinks of Volt, his reaction to my claim, etc.

For now, I feel that faust is really scummy if he's been reading but not posting. Scum wants to deny us information now, and I feel like we'd be able to see connections better if faust would start posting more.

Until then, vote: faust

A Drowned Kernel

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #551 on: April 03, 2014, 11:09:39 pm »

Volt: I was talking about here, where shraeye's real entrance into the game was a series of questions directed at myself and others questioning the reasoning behind certain comments and questions. That struck me as being townie, as getting people to explain themselves keeps them honest and is helpful for later rereads.

Those were all at mcmc, which you found "a little off".

Just in that first post. Further down he asks questions of you, me, and WW.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 1)
« Reply #552 on: April 03, 2014, 11:14:40 pm »

Has anyone considered a faust/Shraeye scumteam?

Yes. They have some interactions D1. I can't tell if they make them more or less likely to be scum partners than the POE would indicate.

If people decide they like that more than ADK/shraeye, I would consider lynching shraeye and figuring out ADK/faust tomorrow.
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #553 on: April 03, 2014, 11:23:22 pm »

The thing is Shraeye's actions make a lot of sense as both scum and town.  I originally thought his method of asking a bunch of questions and stirring up confusion (whether or not he intended to, people were confused by his first barrage of posts) was scummy, though a number of people argued that it was something a town would do.  WIFOM then implies it's something scum would do too.

So for town it forces people to contribute and answer things, which helps with finding inconsistencies and such, as was pointed out.  For scum it helps get wagons started, because people start to look at all the little things someone says seeing if they can find a scum slip.  And scum can pretend to see those things.  So, motivation as scum and town.

Then the being sure you've caught scum and pushing the wagon through thing.  I see it as scummy.  But there is of course the argument that Volt and ADK have said, which is, basically, why would a scum want to risk so much attention?  But, then, WIFOM again, that's a perfect cover for being town while pushing through a mislynch.  So it's hard to judge. 

It would be interesting if there were some game records where Shraeye was town and went 100% on a particular player.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #554 on: April 03, 2014, 11:30:35 pm »

The thing is Shraeye's actions make a lot of sense as both scum and town.

Welcome to my world.  :(
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Nik

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #555 on: April 04, 2014, 06:30:08 am »

Vote: Faust. He's lurking.
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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #556 on: April 04, 2014, 06:47:27 am »

Vote Count 2.2:

faust (2): Ichimaru Gin, Nik
A Drowned Kernel (1) : Witherweaver

Not Voting (4): A Drowned Kernel, shraeye, faust, Voltaire

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Day 2 ends at 4:00 p.m. on April 8, 2014.

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shraeye

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #557 on: April 04, 2014, 07:19:26 am »

IG, town is doing well. You are the IC. I'm town, and scum's only chance is to make you distrust me. Their only chance. Re-read me. I'm confident you'll see I'm town.
Volt, you have to know that this is really heavy appeal to emotion.  If you are town and your assumptions are all true (you said Nik and WW are town?), this could be correct.  I'm not sure, I really don't have the mental time to insert myself fully into this day until after an important research meeting on Monday.  But if you are scum, this just reads like heavy-handed manipulation.
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shraeye

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #558 on: April 04, 2014, 07:26:55 am »

I really want answers to these.

It seems like Shraeye is being very aggressive and spreading confusion.  Maybe this is just his play style.. I'm not sure.  My read right now is scum.

He's asking a lot of questions and analyzing people's motivations, which I read as a more towny trait. shraeye's probably my strongest town read so far.

Why exactly do you think shraeye is town? Shraeye asks almost entirely questions as scum.

I don't have the same meta knowledge of him that you do so I won't know about that. I'm basing my town read on him off of his questions seeming pointed and insightful, though the thing with analyzing WW's post and "mc was just the first to post about it" does seem a little off.

ADK, can you point me to the D1 posts prior to this where shraeye is "pointed" and "insightful"? Especially if you think the WW post/mcmc thing was "a little off".

So I have no IDEA what. the. jack. you are talking about.  I am in no way more "in the moment" now than I was then.  You're just making a hack-job of pretending to have a reason for reads.  Scum. Found.

vote: mcmc

shraeye, what do you think of the mcmc wagon/interactions now that he's flipped town?

I need to read. I'd much rather lynch mcmc; i'm 100% positive of his scuminess.  He's been attacking me with nothing more than hot-button generic-scummy things that I'm not actually doing at all.  His position on me has jumped back and forth and also not been in line with any of the actual evidence.  He repeatedly refuses to defend or back up his statements that I've already pointed out are contradictory, instead resorting to ad hominem attacks and blatant AtE. 

His frustration could absolutely be legitimate.  No doubt.  But I'm sure that he is frustrated scum.  If we turn somewhere else and run up the doctor or the cop, we are screwing ourselves.  Hard.  There is no reason to do that in the face of such an overwhelming reason to lynch mcmc.

Shraeye deflects/is wishy-washy when I ask about ADK instead of mcmc.

So, shraeye, help me out. Convince me you're town.
Question #2...what I said yesterday night is still true.  I haven't reread in the light of mcmc's flip, and I won't have time to until Monday.  I have not even considered the implications of mcmc being town outside of my day1 speculation.

Question/statement #3. 
Volt's original question to me:
shraeye, would you be fine lynching ADK instead?
My answer definitely is not wishy-washy.  I thought I clearly stated that I really really only wanted mcmc.  I was 100% convinced of his scumminess, and I'm not moving off of a 100% except for another 100%.  And it's not an accurate light to say I'm deflecting either.  That would be a scenario where you asked me only to describe my feelings on ADK, and instead I talked on and on about mcmc.  You asked me if I wanted ADK instead of mcmc.  In my mind the comparison is easy.  100% scummy vs. anything else.  I wanted mcmc only.

Those are two pretty scum-flavored words to describe what I was doing, which was simply saying "no, I don't want ADK as much as I want mcmc; I'm sure mcmc is scum."
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #559 on: April 04, 2014, 11:22:21 am »

IG, town is doing well. You are the IC. I'm town, and scum's only chance is to make you distrust me. Their only chance. Re-read me. I'm confident you'll see I'm town.
Volt, you have to know that this is really heavy appeal to emotion.  If you are town and your assumptions are all true (you said Nik and WW are town?), this could be correct.  I'm not sure, I really don't have the mental time to insert myself fully into this day until after an important research meeting on Monday.  But if you are scum, this just reads like heavy-handed manipulation.

Yep, it's appeal to emotion. It's also correct. But I don't care how IG thinks about me personally, the important part is for him to re-read me so he feels confident in me.

Note how shraeye is still opting for the subtle way of throwing dirt on me - reasonable tone, ending with "heavy-handed manipulation."

So, shraeye, if you're town and the team is faust/ADK, please show that to me.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #560 on: April 04, 2014, 11:23:45 am »

Well, you were 100% wrong, so what I'm asking of you is that you reconsider. Which, I humbly suggest, you really need to do.
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #561 on: April 04, 2014, 12:01:06 pm »

Re-read complete! Note that I don't comment on everything that happened, just stuff I think is worth noting. Also, I'll look at the D1 wagon (the final vote count) later.

faust - complains that the game started out slow when he re-appears, despite his first few posts being "help the newbies" posts and having done nothing himself to move the game along. Casts lurker vote on shraeye. Casts lurker vote on Nik.


ADK - is cool as silk (what) to mcmc's vote on him, and does the "if we're making serious votes now I'll unvote" statement (he's the first to start the string of unvotes [was voting IG]). The post is here. I get a tiny scummy vibe from it, he hedges like crazy (townie) but throws up lots of empty content (scummy). Expresses big town read on shraeye. Says he's "pointed" and "insightful" somehow. Votes Ichi for his "conspiracy theory". Votes for me after I come out in favor of lynching mcmc.


I think there is some more worth noting.  Both ADK and Faust seem to do a pretty great job on Day 1 of hedging suspicions and throwing out a lot of "seems kinda towny," and "seems kinda scummy" vibes.  Let's look at votes:

Faust:
(1) RVS Nik
(2) Votes Shraeye, for motivation to participate (this is where we were transitioning out of RVS)
(3) Votes Nik again for lurking, following Ichi's vote
(4) Votes Ichi for constructing an artificial case against DeDe
<Disappears for like four pages until Voltaire calls him out>
<brings up he's tempted to vote McMc because McMc claimed vanilla town.  Very little to mention on McMc before this except to say he's not quite sure what to make of the fight.  Hedge a slight scum/slight town against McMc I believe>
<This post:
It is interesting how this doesn't feel like a newbie game at all. Good work, everyone!

After catching up, my reads now look like this:

Ichimaru - still scummy. All my previous points still hold, and he's done nothing to make himself look townie.
mcmc - scummy. The VT claim on top of everything else... let me state again why VT is a horrible claim for town to make: it accomplishes two things: 1) Scum knows who they don't need to lynch. 2) You will never be night killed. Scum loves an excuse for never being night killed. Town has no reason to give scum this information.
ADK - scummy. Mostly a feeling from his latest post. Also isn't very active or memorable, so he doesn't make a bad lynch

Nik - lurking, sheeping and slightly scummy for that. He's the only one here why acts like I would expect a newbie to act though, and this may well come from newbie!town.

Voltaire - null. He's pretty much his normal self, without any standout interactions that lead me to think either way about him. I do want to keep him alive today though.
Witherweaver - null. I don't really get why people find him particularly townie, but didn't see much scummy stuff either.

shraeye - slight town. I think he is making sense and putting strong reads out there and sticking to them. Scum is usually more afraid of such commitment.
DeDe - town. My strongest town read, actually. Posts seem sincere, good activity, not afraid of stating reads... it may be masterful newbie!scum play, but I don't think so.
>
<Intent to hammer McMc>
(5) Votes and hammers McMc

He was never really vocal against anyone except Ichi.  Against McMc he says "the VT claim on top of everything else," but he never really established what "everything else" is.  He only ever said before that Shraeye comes off as slightly more towny in the Shraeye vs. McMc argument.

Hammering here seems very safe.  He established some doubt against McMc and then established the VT claim as a perfectly valid reason to hammer, even if he doesn't believe McMc is scum, which he never made a case for until McMc claimed VT.

He also put out some "scummy reads" on ADK, which is a good cover if they're partners.

I'm going to try to do a similar analysis of ADK's votes/reads.  In my recollection, ADK comes off as *very* hedgey in everything he said.. also voted against Ichi, mentioned some scum reads and put up a few defenses for people.
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A Drowned Kernel

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #562 on: April 04, 2014, 01:18:41 pm »

Being suspicious of Ichi before he claimed shouldn't be considered automatically. I was going off of my reads on him.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #563 on: April 04, 2014, 01:19:40 pm »

Being suspicious of Ichi before he claimed shouldn't be considered automatically. I was going off of my reads on him.

I'm saying, this is another confirmed town, and shraeye looks like he was setting up multiple mislynches.
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #564 on: April 04, 2014, 01:28:53 pm »

Being suspicious of Ichi before he claimed shouldn't be considered automatically. I was going off of my reads on him.

I'm saying, this is another confirmed town, and shraeye looks like he was setting up multiple mislynches.

I'm not sure Shraeye was setting up Ichi any more than anyone else.  I voted against Ichi, and ADK and Faust both made cases against him. 
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #565 on: April 04, 2014, 01:30:22 pm »

I mean, it's not a smoking gun, obviously. But to me, shraeye was saying looking more at Ichi (town) and faust (scum candidate). So that's fishy, since shraeye himself is a scum candidate.

Look, there's nothing right now that says "It's absolutely these 2 guys" but we have 2 shots left, a huge change tomorrow with the cop, and 3 candidates. Again, we're in a good spot.
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #566 on: April 04, 2014, 01:44:16 pm »

I mean, it's not a smoking gun, obviously. But to me, shraeye was saying looking more at Ichi (town) and faust (scum candidate). So that's fishy, since shraeye himself is a scum candidate.

Look, there's nothing right now that says "It's absolutely these 2 guys" but we have 2 shots left, a huge change tomorrow with the cop, and 3 candidates. Again, we're in a good spot.

Faust was exactly setting up Ichi and ADK (also scum candidate) while "resigning" to hammer McMc. So the same on that regard. 

ADK also voted for Ichi earlier, and later said Ichi came off looking "scummier than I remember" during a reread.  He says something similar about DeDe, also confirmed town.  And then he says you look the scummiest and throws a vote against you.  A very safe place to put his vote if he's scum, because no one was looking at you and no one will come looking for him on the wagon against McMc, which was a pretty certain lynch by that point.  He's also no longer on Ichi's wagon, which was the only other lynch that had a chance of happening if McMc's somehow broke down.

Some of that last part was slightly tangential.  My main point is that Faust, ADK, and Shraeye are all equally "guilty" on the "setting up Ichi for a mislynch" front.  This certainly doesn't mean Shraeye is town, just that I don't think the argument can't be used to show he's more scummy than the other two.
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Voltaire

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #567 on: April 04, 2014, 01:47:30 pm »

OK, fair point.
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #568 on: April 04, 2014, 03:31:42 pm »

We need input from Faust.  It's been over 24 hours.  I get that he's busy and, I think, in a different time zone, so we shouldn't hold the lack of input against him.  But we do need something from him.

I'd like to hear more from ADK and Shraeye, too.
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faust

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #569 on: April 04, 2014, 04:47:37 pm »

Hey, I'm here. Sorry for not participating as much as usual, I've just been really busy. But now I have some free time at hand. So...

Voltaire is obviously the most standout voice this Day. It is good that he's driving this game forward, obviously, since noone else will, but it also leaves him in a very powerful position should he be scum. So that's what we really need to figure out. I guess he is my top reread priority.

I can agree with Voltaire that Ichi's claim helps us a lot. Getting the IC is really nice here, especially because I had Ichi as one of my top scumreads.

Has anyone done wagon analysis on mcmc btw? I think that would be helpful. I'll put it on my to-do list.

With Ichi conf!town, my gut says we should look at ADK. I guess a reread here is in order too. Scheduled.
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #570 on: April 04, 2014, 05:08:01 pm »

Hey, I'm here. Sorry for not participating as much as usual, I've just been really busy. But now I have some free time at hand. So...

Voltaire is obviously the most standout voice this Day. It is good that he's driving this game forward, obviously, since noone else will, but it also leaves him in a very powerful position should he be scum. So that's what we really need to figure out. I guess he is my top reread priority.

I can agree with Voltaire that Ichi's claim helps us a lot. Getting the IC is really nice here, especially because I had Ichi as one of my top scumreads.

Has anyone done wagon analysis on mcmc btw? I think that would be helpful. I'll put it on my to-do list.

With Ichi conf!town, my gut says we should look at ADK. I guess a reread here is in order too. Scheduled.

Good, I'm happy you're here.  I'm interested in hearing what you have to say.  I agree that Voltaire being scum is extremely bad for us.  Voltaire being town is quite good for us.  If Voltaire were scum, who would his partner be?
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faust

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #571 on: April 04, 2014, 05:35:48 pm »

So, I kind of like theorel's scumscore thing, let me try something like that. Ichi is town, and I am town, so everyone else has a 2/5 chance of being scum. We'll start the scumscore at 40 then, I guess.

Now let's look at Voltaire.

#91 - the first read he states is a town read on mcmc. Considering that he helped lynching him later, +1
#102 - says new scum are "timid with their votes", but immediately weakens this by saying it's a vague statement. I think scum are a bit more concerned with puttig what they say into perspective. +1
#148 - defends shraeye's playstyle, says he might be an easy mislynch because of that and he will not vote him. Seems townie. -2
#156 - says "I know shraeye's not my scum partner", something I doubt scum would say. -2
#233 - votes me with a very weak reason where it is hard for me to defend myself. Call it OMGUS, but +1
#266 - wants to lynch ADK "much rather" than mcmc. Considering how the day ended, +1
#297 - here he is leaning towards lynching mcmc. It is much unclear to me what changed his mind.
#317 - now switching to ADK after he attacked him. +1
#370 - does not bother to find reasons for lynching mcmc on his own. +1
#377 - now he wants to lynch Ichi and no longer ADK. Why is that? +1
#418 - says shraeye should be a lynch candidate while at the same time stating he will probably not lynch him. This looks more like a townie thing to say, looking for interactions and such. -2
#423 - votes ADk because his reads don't fit with other players' reads. That is one bad reason for a vote. +1
#444 - don't think I agree that Nik is obv!town, but it does seem like a townie thing to say. -2
Then comes an extensive reread which seems like a townie thing to do. -2
#477 - just want to point out that I think VT claiming is never good, not even if you are at L-1 with intnet to hammer (edge cases aside)
#483 - I'm not exactly sure how this reads are connected to what he said about the players.
#500 - IC buddying. +1
#501 - the first in a number of posts where he tries to reduce the lynch pool to me, ADK, shraeye. I find this scummy, especially the amount of force with which he pushes this idea. +2
#513 - the unvote at L-1, always an esay town-cred move. +1
#542 - there it is again. Completely ignoring other options than his favored lynch pool. +1
#546 - in this post, he's preparing at setup where he can accuse any player that attacks him to be scummy because of that narrative. +2
#559 - and here he actually pulls the trigger, doing exactly what his previous posts implied he wanted to do. +1

So what do we have...? scumscore is 46. Not terribly high, but above average. It is mainly his most recent posts that set off alarm bells for me. I mean, it could just be town confident in their reads, but I think it's more likely a scum move. FWIW, I think if he is scum, his partner is among the three players he named. I am town, and I still think shraeye is town (maybe need to reread here as well though), so that would point to ADK.

PPE: Looks like I answered your question without knowing youd pose it.
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faust

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #572 on: April 04, 2014, 05:36:58 pm »

Voltaire, question for you: Have you ever considered that this game is so quiet because scum sees you leading town into their doom?
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faust

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #573 on: April 04, 2014, 05:48:16 pm »

The mcmc wagon is less interesting than I thought. I believe there is scum on it.

shraeye pushed hard, like really hard for this lynch. I don't see that as a scum tactic. Well, that is, in most cases, there are players from which I would expect that. But not from shraeye. So I think he's town.

Voltaire's additude to this wagon was definitely more scummy. First he wants another lynch, but doesn't really do anything about it. He is then quite easily convinced and only sheeps shraeye's reasoning.

Ichi is town. Well.

Nik jumps late when then wagon seems to go through, and sheeps. That's classic scum beviour, and coming from a newbie, it's more likely to actually come from scum.

I am town.

So that would leave me with a slightly scummy feeling on Nik. Voltaire I have already analyzed.

Off-wagon are WW and ADK. Off-wagon is always something generically townie when it's a mislynch wagon. I need to look at the reasons for being off-wagon to make a clearer statement here.
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Witherweaver

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Re: NewMafia V : House of Cards (Day 2)
« Reply #574 on: April 04, 2014, 05:55:51 pm »

The mcmc wagon is less interesting than I thought. I believe there is scum on it.

shraeye pushed hard, like really hard for this lynch. I don't see that as a scum tactic. Well, that is, in most cases, there are players from which I would expect that. But not from shraeye. So I think he's town.

Voltaire's additude to this wagon was definitely more scummy. First he wants another lynch, but doesn't really do anything about it. He is then quite easily convinced and only sheeps shraeye's reasoning.

Ichi is town. Well.

Nik jumps late when then wagon seems to go through, and sheeps. That's classic scum beviour, and coming from a newbie, it's more likely to actually come from scum.

I am town.

So that would leave me with a slightly scummy feeling on Nik. Voltaire I have already analyzed.

Off-wagon are WW and ADK. Off-wagon is always something generically townie when it's a mislynch wagon. I need to look at the reasons for being off-wagon to make a clearer statement here.

There are 100% for certain scum on the McMc wagon, because the only four players not on McMc are McMc himself, Dede (confirmed town), ADK, and myself.  And I know I'm town.  So either there are two scum on McMc wagon, or ADK is scum and there is one on McMc.

Now, this I want to know more about:

Quote
shraeye pushed hard, like really hard for this lynch. I don't see that as a scum tactic. Well, that is, in most cases, there are players from which I would expect that. But not from shraeye. So I think he's town.

I know nothing of Shraeye's meta.  What do you know?  Why do you think he would not do this as scum?

Also, I think your position on McMc's wagon looks scummy.  Refer to my post #561 above.
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