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 91 
 on: January 27, 2020, 09:12:37 am 
Started by popsofctown - Last post by Awaclus
Oh and if you manage to fool two people into a game where you flip two coins and person A wins if they're both tails, person B wins if they're both heads, and you win if one is tails and the other is heads, you will make money.

 92 
 on: January 27, 2020, 09:10:31 am 
Started by popsofctown - Last post by Awaclus
The information that you have is obviously not capable of affecting the result of the coin flip or any other aspect of the physical reality, unless you have psychic powers. What the information does allow you to do is to eliminate possibilities that contradict the information that you have, when you are guessing what the reality is, so that you can make a better guess.

i.e. it is possible to orchestrate a con in which you are able to make better guesses than mail-mi because you have more information than he does (by e.g. suggesting that you both flip a coin in secret without looking at the result, and then place bets on the four possibilities, but you cheat and check out your own result). You can't orchestrate a con in which you can manipulate the result of a coin flip by knowing the results of previous coin flips.

 93 
 on: January 27, 2020, 09:04:38 am 
Started by popsofctown - Last post by Awaclus
The information that you have is obviously not capable of affecting the result of the coin flip or any other aspect of the physical reality, unless you have psychic powers. What the information does allow you to do is to eliminate possibilities that contradict the information that you have, when you are guessing what the reality is, so that you can make a better guess.

 94 
 on: January 27, 2020, 08:59:48 am 
Started by ashersky - Last post by MiX
You can /in this already?

 95 
 on: January 27, 2020, 08:58:40 am 
Started by popsofctown - Last post by MiX
I am secretly asking mail-mi to bet if the result of two coin flips will be HH, HT, TT, or TH.  I force him into choosing TT.
1. If no coins have been flipped at the time of betting, that's 25% every single time (1 out of 4)
2. If a coin has been flipped but no one knows the result at the time of betting, that's 25% (1 out of 4)
3. If a coin has been flipped and we know the result after betting, it's 66% (2 out of 3 -- both HH and HT are losses and would count as one outcome I think, TT, or TH)

Is #2 correct there?
If it is, why is in incorrect if I know the result but mail-mi doesn't?
Does it matter if a third-person knows but neither I nor mail-mi does?

If you force him to choose TT, knowing it first flipped H, you'll always win, right? By making him guess the second coin will be Tails, regardless of what you know of the first flip, he's betting on HT and TT at the same time, because those are the results where the second coin is Tails.

Again, I agree that what you are explaining is sensible in the context of real life.

My point is why does the probability thing not work out?  Nothing has changed in regards to the four possible outcomes from mail-mi's perspective. . Or to put it another way, isn't that win where the second coin hit Tails something that happens 25% of the time?

The odds of the second coin flipping Tails is 50% regardless of the first coin flip. You can't force mail-mi to also bet that the first coin is T because he doesn't know it exists.

Let's say the first coin flipped Tails. Now you're offering a choice to mail-mi: will this coin flip Heads or Tails? From mail-mi's perspective, he sees two possiblities: H or T. From your perspective, you also see two possiblities: TH or TT, because HH and HT were ruled out. Thus the odds for both of you for the coin to flip, say, Tails now is the same: 50%.

 96 
 on: January 27, 2020, 08:55:20 am 
Started by popsofctown - Last post by ashersky
I am secretly asking mail-mi to bet if the result of two coin flips will be HH, HT, TT, or TH.  I force him into choosing TT.
1. If no coins have been flipped at the time of betting, that's 25% every single time (1 out of 4)
2. If a coin has been flipped but no one knows the result at the time of betting, that's 25% (1 out of 4)
3. If a coin has been flipped and we know the result after betting, it's 66% (2 out of 3 -- both HH and HT are losses and would count as one outcome I think, TT, or TH)

Is #2 correct there?
If it is, why is in incorrect if I know the result but mail-mi doesn't?
Does it matter if a third-person knows but neither I nor mail-mi does?

If you force him to choose TT, knowing it first flipped H, you'll always win, right? By making him guess the second coin will be Tails, regardless of what you know of the first flip, he's betting on HT and TT at the same time, because those are the results where the second coin is Tails.

Again, I agree that what you are explaining is sensible in the context of real life.

My point is why does the probability thing not work out?  Nothing has changed in regards to the four possible outcomes from mail-mi's perspective. . Or to put it another way, isn't that win where the second coin hit Tails something that happens 25% of the time?

 97 
 on: January 27, 2020, 08:52:48 am 
Started by popsofctown - Last post by MiX
I am secretly asking mail-mi to bet if the result of two coin flips will be HH, HT, TT, or TH.  I force him into choosing TT.
1. If no coins have been flipped at the time of betting, that's 25% every single time (1 out of 4)
2. If a coin has been flipped but no one knows the result at the time of betting, that's 25% (1 out of 4)
3. If a coin has been flipped and we know the result after betting, it's 66% (2 out of 3 -- both HH and HT are losses and would count as one outcome I think, TT, or TH)

Is #2 correct there?
If it is, why is in incorrect if I know the result but mail-mi doesn't?
Does it matter if a third-person knows but neither I nor mail-mi does?

If you force him to choose TT, knowing it first flipped H, you'll always win, right? By making him guess the second coin will be Tails, regardless of what you know of the first flip, he's betting on HT and TT at the same time, because those are the results where the second coin is Tails.

 98 
 on: January 27, 2020, 08:52:36 am 
Started by ashersky - Last post by 2.71828.....
/in

 99 
 on: January 27, 2020, 08:52:29 am 
Started by ashersky - Last post by ashersky
So Hunger Games is next after iZombie?

 100 
 on: January 27, 2020, 08:43:13 am 
Started by popsofctown - Last post by ashersky
So, from your perspective, you flipped the coin once, so you know out of the 2 flips it's going to be (HH, HT) or (TH, TT), depending on whether you got Heads or Tails. But mail-mi doesn't, so it can be any of the 4 (HH, HT, TH, TT). However, he's only betting on the SECOND coin being Heads or Tails, which means if he bets that it's going to land on Heads, he's betting on HH or TH to occur, vice-versa if he bets on Tails. Regardless of what you flipped first, the odds of one of these happening is 1 out of 2 from your perspective, whereas from mail-mi's perspective is 2 out of 4, which is the same.

Does that make sense?

Sure.  But why?

I am secretly asking mail-mi to bet if the result of two coin flips will be HH, HT, TT, or TH.  I force him into choosing TT.
1. If no coins have been flipped at the time of betting, that's 25% every single time (1 out of 4)
2. If a coin has been flipped but no one knows the result at the time of betting, that's 25% (1 out of 4)
3. If a coin has been flipped and we know the result after betting, it's 66% (2 out of 3 -- both HH and HT are losses and would count as one outcome I think, TT, or TH)

Is #2 correct there?
If it is, why is in incorrect if I know the result but mail-mi doesn't?
Does it matter if a third-person knows but neither I nor mail-mi does?

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