If galz mega posts, I'm voting for him as a policy lynch.
Alright, allow me to begin with this declaration:
I do not believe there is a Serial Killer, anymore than there might be a OSV, or straight Vig.So what's with my "case" against Robz? O, I defer to you:
But if we can't be sure of lynching mafia, and we had a guaranteed SK lynch (we don't by any means), its inanely stupid to wander blindly into town lynch, 2x town kill again. We'd lynch the SK immediately first, since they're guaranteed to not be townie.
That being said I haven't seen a case against robz and we have nothing close to a guaranteed SK
Bolded text mine.
So what the hell was I doing? Well, I was bored out of
MY MIND. This game was going nowhere, very little information was flowing, and I decided it was worth playing a gambit, taking a risk, and stirring the pot (very dangerous as town, I know - but it was also very calculated). Robz's lengthy post provided me just the opportunity to do that. I knew I had to make my reasoning believable enough, and contain enough truth to bear credibility because I needed the
Mafia to believe I was serious, even though I knew the town would (rightfully) play skeptically and luke-warm towards something that bold and wild. So without anymore wasted time..:
I think you're missing one possibility, one that I'm starting to think is the thing: Galzria is mafia AND Robz is the serial killer. This is just another shot at increasing his town cred. If Robz flips Witch, I'm totally going after Galz tomorrow.
There's also the possibility that RobZ is Vig (would explain his confidence) and Galz is Mafia (would explain why he thinks that insomniac was not mafia kill).
I still don't like Insomniac as a vig kill - so considered this too unlikely to post.
If I were Mafia and thought Robz was SK OR Vig, I wouldn't say anything now, and instead aim to NK him. That way his shot would go off too. He's much more likely to hit Town than Mafia, and it would be well worth the risk.
Consider (in both the following, the Mafia NK is used to kill the SK):
If we mislynch, and he hit town: 6 pro-town left, 3 Mafia left.
If we mislynch, and he hit scum: 7 pro-town left, 2 Mafia
By NK'ing him instead of Day Lynching, as Mafia, the worst we would come out is a 7/2 split - or a standard Mafia game. So it would make little sense for me to make this argument public, drawing attention to myself, as Mafia.
As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.
This is the post that I referred Frisk back to. The math on this (assuming no Doctor/Jailer save) is accurate. If the Mafia choose to let the SK/Vig live today (ie. not lynch him), and instead get a Pro-Town lynch, at WORST they are in a situation that is equivalent to a standard 9 player game. I argued the case from the standpoint of "If I am Mafia", but the conclusion holds true for "Any Mafia in this game".
The fact is, the Mafia would have *NO* reason to go after a suspected SK today. Not when killing him at night was such a juicy proposition. So I knew setting Robz up would not gain any traction. What I was hoping for, being a
Townie myself, was to set myself up to be lynched - because that serves the goals of the Mafia perfectly. Lynch town, NK a possible SK, win/win.
With all that in mind, I made my case against Robz, and followed it up with the above quote, and sat back to watch carefully. So, let's look over all the reactions that came in:
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First,
Jotheonah:
Suddenly you sound like Galzria! About time. Vote: Robz
While this in *no way* clears him entirely in my book (his play as well as his votes have been WAY to erratic to put much stock in), it certainly pulls him more towards crazy townie for me. On the other hand, this response came before I put in the post laying out the math (shortly after which he flipped back to voting me again), so I still really don't know what the hell Jo is doing - Which is purely Anti-Town if he IS town.
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Second,
Captain_Frisk:
Suddenly you sound like Galzria! About time. Vote: Robz
Make up your mind!
Galz Theory:
1. RobZ is serial killer.
2. He choose to kill insomniac because Insomniac might detect him
3. Mafia killed theorel for some unknown reason.
RobZ Theory:
1. Mafia killed Insomniac
2. Vigilante killed theorel
3. Glooble is an unsubtle mafia.
I don't like either of these. I don't like RobZ's for the exact reasons that Galzria puts out. Being confident of a Vig seems premature, but I do see Insomniac as the likely mafia kill when looking at that pair. I don't see why that means we have a vig vs. a serial killer.
Regarding Galz - I have a problem with the assumption that theorel is the mafia kill. Even if Insomniac was a master RobZ detective, it seems more likely to me that RobZ would be nervous about him if he was Mafia vs. Serial Killer, since the Serial killer doesn't need to worry about perceptions of voting patterns with his mafia buddies.
Finally:
And doesn't the SK want to kill the mafia too?
....snip....
100%? No, of course not. But comfortable enough to Vote: Robz.
Lets assume - that we knew 100% that RobZ was the serial killer. Would we want to lynch him as town? Or let mafia do our dirty work for us @ night? Mafia should fear the SK nearly as much as they fear Vig, as people who can kill them without discussion.
Now I'm stuck with both RobZ and Galz - players who I respect - making long, reasonable, arguments that both appear (in my mind) to be flawed.
Very confused, not sure what to think, unwilling to commit or jump at anything response. Reads VERY strong town to me. I've had reads earlier in the game that suggested he might be otherwise, but D1 reads don't bear a lot of weight (
See: Axxle1), and D2 C.F. has been much more genuine. Being nervous about my case, but not sure what to make of it was exactly the town response I was looking for. I doubt VERY much that C.F. could have or would have picked up on that and posted this as a bluff. Especially when you consider his responses and thoughts in later posts.
As Town, I would probably RATHER lynch Mafia. Lynch Mafia, not scum afterall. But lynch scum, not town is equally valid, and I don't have any great Mafia reads at this point.
What's wrong with J?
I wasn't completely fair to you in my response to this. Nothing is wrong with Jo as a lynch target, except that at the time (and still), I'm really unsure about him. Rest assured, any future games of Mafia will include a Policy-Lynch rule from me regarding play like his. But we can't risk a Policy Lynch at this point, and there are probably better targets. As to why I switched things up at the time you asked this question, well, see above.
I should note here that I see and understand the concern regarding my "back-handed defenses" of Jo. I'm not sure what to do to ease these concerns. I fully believe and stand by my thoughts that he should be lynched for Crazy, but I can't bring myself to want to lynch someone strictly for playing Anti-Town. Anti-Town is not ALWAYS Mafia, nor is it ALWAYS Serial Killer. Sometimes Anti-Town is just... Anti-Town. And being down 3 Pro-Town players, I can't risk throwing my vote into a Policy Lynch at this time, when the result could be equally good OR bad for the town.
Vote: Galzria
Well, I wish there had been more here than just the vote C.F., but as enough time had elapsed, and by this point I'm sure you were/are just getting really nervous (as indicated in previous posts), I'm going on the assumption that you really just wanted to see where this would lead. I certainly (up to this point) have given very little follow up after my accusation posts, and what I did give was limited, short, and not very insightful/helpful. As stated previously, this was intentional. I had to gauge reaction, and needed to do so while keeping a very strong cool. Over-reacting was going to help the Mafia into lynching me with arguments I can't defend against (See: Jotheonah this entire game). Hope this addresses everything for you, as I DO believe you to be town.
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Third,
Popsofctown:
Vote: Galzria
SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells. In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion. In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.
Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.
Now here... here, we have something interesting. PopsofCtown, as noted by Dsell is seemingly playing a *very* different game than us. He's been arrogant and acted like he is "super-elite-mafia-pro". He has consistently said very little, given weak justifications, and always refers back to his "handy black book of tells" to belittle other's play, and as the end-all-discussion defense. He does the same schtick here, and I call him out on it. Let's look over the following exchange:
Vote: Galzria
SK-hunting is one of the strongest little black book tells. In absence of much else, this is my number one suspicion. In particular the preoccupation with NKs suggests Galzria is able to kill at night.
Jo stop voting Robz you're being an idjit.
You sure talk a whole lot about having all the master tells down.
SK hunting is not inherently bad. If something jumps out, it's worth pointing out. Since I don't have much to go on against a possible Mafia (though that might change), I point out what I do see.
By the way, isn't refereeing a IIOA Mafia tell in your little black book? You do a damn awful lot of that.
The tells don't always work. A fullhouse doesn't always win. Just makes good odds.
The tells don't always work. A fullhouse doesn't always win. Just makes good odds.
Then pay close attention.
I try
In particular here, "The tells don't always work. A fullhouse doesn't always win. Just makes good odds." is nothing but hedge, and it isn't the first time he's done it. In all honesty, there is SO much to go on here, I'm going to need to make another post after this to contain it all (going through his post history is just... enlightening. I encourage everybody to do so:
http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?action=profile;u=426;area=showposts;start=0). For now, I'm going to stay on topic here.
Thing is, Pops saw exactly what I hoped Mafia would see. An opportunity at a "weak" case to get a town lynched, and follow up with a possible SK night kill. His point about "the preoccupation with Night Kills" is just ridiculous. Everybody here should be worried about night kills. Especially when (thus far) more people have died there than any other time of day. Pops has consistently done more than any other player to try and shape people's opinions and referee this game - Something he accuses Axxle of doing and being lynch worthy:
Referee is a brand of IIoA which is already a little black book tell. So.
Theorel, all my votes this game have been serious, except for my vote where I pretended to copy SFS, that was a trollvote.
This vote is serious.
Vote: Axxle
His posting has read like a referee and not like a player.
But enough on Pops for now - I'll post a follow up on just him later. Moving on...
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Fourth,
Axxle2:
also am i the only player under 30 on iso 
I hit 30 again? Yay!
Vote: Galz
Gunning for SK is much more of a mafia thing than a town thing, like pops said. But more than that, I get the feeling that you just want to discredit Robz. You want to be the only leader in the town. Robz has always been strong-headed and confident, and yet that's the majority of what you picked at in his post. I find that thinking disingenuous.
His first point, agree'ing with Pops, can't have much read into it. I've seen scum strategies where Mafia DO stick together during the day (being MUCH to obvious to be Mafia-partners), and I've seen sum strategies where Mafia actively dig at each other all game, but never actually vote for each other (See: M-II). So setting that aside, I looked closer at his second point, and honestly that is the most ridiculous argument I have ever seen.
"I get the feeling you just want to discredit Robz. You want to be the only leader in the town".
First off, I don't see myself as a leader of the town at all. Second, if I had to choose somebody, it wouldn't be me (it would likely be O, for the record). Third, even if I DID feel that way, going out of my way to discredit somebody over their "strong-headed and confident" play would be the weakest of arguments that I could make. There's nothing game-related about it. Fourth, Robz and I have never butted heads about, well, anything really, and if I wanted to pick on anybody he would be my last target (despite his whining about not being able to read me, I think he would be the hardest to debate 1v1 of anybody here for me).
Still, I can't bring myself to make a case against Axxle 2 days in a row (which is why I hate replacement gaming), so my thoughts about his Mafia/Townishness will have to be checked for now. I'll conclude on his part by saying that I have no trouble seeing 2 Mafia getting on my bandwagon early, given the target that I presented in myself.
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Fifth (and lastly really), is
Dsell:
The thing that struck me most about Robz' long post is no longer an original criticism, but still confused/bothered me a good bit. I didn't like that he dismissed the idea of a SK in favor of the assumption that it was a Vigilante kill. No one has claimed vig yet, so I think it's much too early to write off the possibility of a SK. Bad assumption, IMO.
Now Galz' reply is actually also very interesting (and also partially based on an assumption, but he admits it so it's cool) and reasoned quite well. He addresses those same issues I did above. It scares me to think that some of our heavyweights might be mafia. Both because they will have a lot of sway with the town and because I don't expect them to make many mistakes.
I really really want Robz to be town. D1, we had a lot of the same ideas. So far D2, well I'm not sure if I think the case against Glooble is quite as strong as he thinks it is but it's not too much of a stretch to envision a mafia partnership between Gloob and jo. Lynching one of them will obviously give us more insight into that idea. But back to my original point, I am more than willing to give Robz some grace here. I'm not convinced that he's either SK or mafia yet, but this idea does give Galzria a little more credibility in my mind. That said, I'm also not convinced by pops that SK hunting is a strong mafia tell. Not amongst newer players anyway.
Much like C.F., I got a town read from this. Not QUITE as strong, but still strong enough. The fact is that he:
a) Has picked up on much of Pops tells
b) Thought that my case was strong enough to garner consideration
c) Also doesn't like being stuck between deciding between Robz/Me as scum
All three lead me to believe that there is a genuine town feel here. Dsell has also been pushing strongly at Jotheonah, which I understand, but think is very much a townie not liking the Anti-Town play of Jo rather than a Mafia trying to get a crazy townie lynched for being crazy. So his read stands as town for me.
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The many others that I haven't mentioned:
Re: Robz - Sorry man. If I got myself lynched here without a defense, you would probably be the NK target (assuming you aren't Mafia yourself, which I doubt). You're absolutely right to be going crazy about my play and not being able to read it. Your quote in post #1501 really gave me a chuckle, because you were spot on - "As for Galzria. Galzria, Galzria, Galzria. I can't read him at all. He makes mostly good arguments, some very bad arguments, and his votes are everywhere." It's just that the "bad arguments" were "bad" for a very good reason.
Re: O - O has had many opportunities to jump all over me for my comments about Robz. He has had the chance to come at me much of this game for things that I've said/done, and he consistently hasn't. He's given me the strongest town read in that, I actually think he saw this Gambit for exactly what it was. He may end up lynching me because of this post's length, but I understand his reasons. --- WITH THAT SAID --- If he is Mafia (and obviously I think there is at least 1 Mafia who hasn't voted for me yet), he has done a GREAT job of playing back, letting me get this town read on him, and then lynching me for this post. He would come off looking squeaky clean, even while off'ing a town. Don't let him get away with it!
Re: Glooble/Tables/SFS/Grujah - Well, none of you chimed in on any of this, so I really can't give much of a read. It is very likely that there is a Mafiosi hiding out amongst you (and possibly even 2, though I'm doubtful). I know that some of you have seen similar things as I have in Pops, but then, so have most players here (notably, not all though). What can I say?
Grujah You need to come back from wherever you've gone. An official prod request hasn't been sent yet (I believe) because I don't think anybody here wants to have to consider another replacement, but your continued lack of presence is starting to weigh in.
To conclude:
Vote: Galzria
Ah, the first (maybe second) townie vote on me.
Ok, so the votes on you at this time are: Pops, Axxle, and Me. If you're accusing Pops / Axxle of being mafia, then why are you still voting for your very specific claim of RobZ == Serial Killah
C.F. - The reason I didn't do this sooner was that I felt I needed to wait and gauge as much reaction as I could. The post you quoted had been out for some time (and in fact, as soon as I made the statement, Axxle jumped ship) Your question was absolutely valid though, and as soon as I get my follow-up post on Pops, I'll be voting for him. For now,
Unvote. You'll have to understand though that just randomly jumping ship after making that case against Robz - especially to someone else that has a few votes - while I'm picking up steam would look EXTREMELY scummy. There would be no more sure-fire way than that to get myself lynched on the spot.
Well... I found Galz suspicious... but then Axxle, Pops and CF voted for him...
so yea, less suspicious of him now.
I'm not particularly suspicious of him either, but I don't like that he responded to my argument against Glooble/Jo by giving a long-winded explanation of why that made me SK/mafia. And then I address his points and he says nothing, keeping his vote on me.
As for Glooble, UNVOTE, I guess. I'm totally unsatisfied for his explanation of why he said so many things that made no sense. But I do buy that him and Jo being twins is the elephant in the room regarding why they seem suspicious and in cahoots. (Though I still suspect each of them independently, just not in tandem.)
Sorry Robz, I've got my reasons, and O (damn unreadable townie) might be onto them.
More to your point, your counter argument was "I just know. I've got a read I can't share, so you'll just have to trust me". I understand and agree completely that you shouldn't share your read if you have one. But I can't just take your word that you do.
It's a catch-22 for you in my eyes right now, and I recognize that (if it makes you feel better). The only way to clear your name would be to possibly incriminate yourself and/or someone else for entirely different reasons.
Robz, do you understand why now? I'm more inclined to believe that you got a Vig read (and really did NOT want to force your hand on that) than anything else. Obviously I was hanging you out to dry, but it seemed like the best way I could at getting things stirred up in here, and you presented the opportunity.
NOW, there is still a decent chance I get lynched here anyway. I recognized this as a risk when I made the initial post against Robz. For everything gained, it was a risk I was willing to take. Town Gambits don't usually pay off, but I feel like I've gained (and hopefully passed along) valuable reads and information for the town.
Pops post will come in this afternoon/evening - I've got very close friends coming over who are moving cross-country in 3 days, and need to spend some quality time with them.
Apologies for any bleeding eye-balls.
