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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 28, 2018, 02:47:15 pm »
I don't even know that Sheff would be dying. SK and Scum both still alive
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 28, 2018, 11:19:44 am »
I think Sheff wants to claim now.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 28, 2018, 11:09:21 am »SK - bro/broseph... probably shoot EFHW or LL. Gives you the best chance.
LL prob SK
EFHW prob mafia.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 28, 2018, 11:08:51 am »
Datswan seems like Space's most likely partner though
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: Neat card interactions that were useful in the game you found them in.
« on: April 26, 2018, 05:37:43 am »
For the "we were talking about when it was a gainer" part, I just fundamentally think you're not even considering the possibility that multiple people trash down, create an engine, and then add jester as payload to that engine to feed off their multiple opponents engines. This is really not that unfathomable and it feels like you're only describing some Jester-BM game without trashing.
I keep seeing this sentiment and it's simply not necessarily true. There are two assumptions being made which are false:
1) A card is good only if it comes into play in mirroring strategies.
2) A card is only influential in a game if it is bought.
Like Awaclus loves to say, Dominion is a reactive game, not a solitaire. I'll do a hopefully helpful proof of concept example. Nitpicks about how these strategies are suboptimal aren't going to be relevant.
Suppose there are two competing strategies in a 2-player game:
A) A Scrying Pool engine populated with cantrips, and
B) Council Room BM.
Furthermore, suppose Diplomat and Fool's Gold are on the board.
If player 1 goes for strategy B, player 2 will follow. Diplomat is useless.
For Fool's Gold, it's (hypothetically) calculated that Fool's Gold is only worth it if you can win the split 7-3. If you win the split 6-4 because your opponent delayed contesting FG's to instead buy more normal coins, he will win. Since your opponent can always move later and contest the split 6-4, neither player decided to go fools gold and the game is a standard, boring, Council Room BM game.
If player 1 goes for strategy A, and player 2 goes for normal council room BM, player 1 will eventually create an engine that can end on its own terms and win.
BUT if player 1 goes for strategy A, player 2 can opt to
1) Buy Diplomats and use them as +actions to play two Council Rooms a turn, and
2) Go Fool's Gold, as contesting the Fool's Gold in a Scrying Pool engine would be ruinous so he can easily get the requisite 7.
And in doing so would get Double Province turns and rush to end the game too quickly for player 1.
The default equilibrium of this kingdom is both players playing Council Room BM. But Fool's Gold and Diplomat are still "Strong" cards that are relevant to the gameplay of the kingdom, despite not being bought and being bad to buy in a mirror match.
Huh? If a card is good it should also be good if everybody has it in his deck.
I keep seeing this sentiment and it's simply not necessarily true. There are two assumptions being made which are false:
1) A card is good only if it comes into play in mirroring strategies.
2) A card is only influential in a game if it is bought.
Like Awaclus loves to say, Dominion is a reactive game, not a solitaire. I'll do a hopefully helpful proof of concept example. Nitpicks about how these strategies are suboptimal aren't going to be relevant.
Suppose there are two competing strategies in a 2-player game:
A) A Scrying Pool engine populated with cantrips, and
B) Council Room BM.
Furthermore, suppose Diplomat and Fool's Gold are on the board.
If player 1 goes for strategy B, player 2 will follow. Diplomat is useless.
For Fool's Gold, it's (hypothetically) calculated that Fool's Gold is only worth it if you can win the split 7-3. If you win the split 6-4 because your opponent delayed contesting FG's to instead buy more normal coins, he will win. Since your opponent can always move later and contest the split 6-4, neither player decided to go fools gold and the game is a standard, boring, Council Room BM game.
If player 1 goes for strategy A, and player 2 goes for normal council room BM, player 1 will eventually create an engine that can end on its own terms and win.
BUT if player 1 goes for strategy A, player 2 can opt to
1) Buy Diplomats and use them as +actions to play two Council Rooms a turn, and
2) Go Fool's Gold, as contesting the Fool's Gold in a Scrying Pool engine would be ruinous so he can easily get the requisite 7.
And in doing so would get Double Province turns and rush to end the game too quickly for player 1.
The default equilibrium of this kingdom is both players playing Council Room BM. But Fool's Gold and Diplomat are still "Strong" cards that are relevant to the gameplay of the kingdom, despite not being bought and being bad to buy in a mirror match.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 26, 2018, 02:56:04 am »
Does suck to replace in and immediately get lynched 
Blame your scummates + Galz for it (I hope, and assume).
Blame your scummates + Galz for it (I hope, and assume).
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 26, 2018, 01:28:07 am »Things are really dragging here. vote: Lalight
The keep it simple, stupid answer is that LaLight is the remaining non-mafia off the wagon and EFHW and Space are Galzria's scum-buddies. This is pretty sucky because LaLight just replaced in and also scumreads me and you gkrieg.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 26, 2018, 01:11:12 am »
Less than 12..
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: Neat card interactions that were useful in the game you found them in.
« on: April 25, 2018, 10:37:53 pm »
~~~
Against strong players, the only circumstance in which you'll be the only person to buy the card is if you're wrong about how good it is.
1) This argument has no relation to your reducto ad absurdium link, just want to point out that this is a quick shift of subject. The argument here is that the tempo loss of buying it first before your opponent is a negative, thus you shouldn't buy it. This is different than the card having a bad effect.
2) There is no effort whatsoever to describe or argue that the first player actually suffers a tempo loss
Here's an equally stupid analogy for Jester:
"First-Movers Advantage: Victory, cost $0. Main text: -5 VP Subtext When you are the first player to buy this, +5VP. Worth 1,000,000VP if your opponent does not buy this his next turn"
Using the original logic: "This card sucks for both players! Once both have bought it, player 1 and 2 have useless cards in their decks for no benefit! Therefore this card is weak and shouldn't be bought"
The reality: There is no tempo less and a concrete advantage for player 1, so its a "strong" card and player 1 will extremely frequently buy it.
The original reducto ad absurdium does not differentiate between your Bandwagon and my First-Mover's advantage.
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: Neat card interactions that were useful in the game you found them in.
« on: April 25, 2018, 08:43:21 pm »That’s not how this works. That’s not how any of this works. He would need to demonstrate that jester is a bad buy before anyone else has bought it to show its a bad buy. Otherwise the card effect might be mediocre when played in that circumstance but the card itself is still strong enough to force players to play itYou also for some reason assumeNot so.
1) That everyone buys and plays Jester, which is an odd assumption given your claim that Jester is not particularly strong
"You for some reason assume √2=a/b where a/b is in its lowest terms, which is an odd assumption given your claim √2 is irrational."
Your “proof by contradiction” link is completely unhelpful here because the relevant analogous proof only shows that multiple jesters when bought by everyone a 3p are not as strong as a solitary jester in 3p
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 25, 2018, 06:46:46 pm »
But who is the scumteam?
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 25, 2018, 06:37:21 pm »The only vig that can exist is a dayvig. The second night kill is, without exception, from an SK.
ok fine cool good note - i mean it changes nothing in regards to the context, but yeah i did not realize that.
I mean, I literally posted about the only vigging possibility being a dayvig back in early D2 at #561, because e (and apparently also gkrieg earlier than that, though I've forgotten those details now) had been talking like there were normal vigs.
I also suggested at that point that there's a chance it could be a "look how much I don't know what's going on" sort of thing. Just saying...
Right but either
1) He didn't read your post and so he's in the same position Gkrieg and e are/were in
2) He saw your post and thus knew it would be a pretty damn stupid idea to play the faked ignorance card
IMO
More importantly, which three of Me/Cuzz/Datswan/Gkrieg are this hypothetical scumteaming pushing town!Galz? Or are you going to push EFHW's argument that scum wouldn't hammer town!Galz here because its not technically an autowin.
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: Neat card interactions that were useful in the game you found them in.
« on: April 25, 2018, 05:38:56 pm »I think you guys are pretty heavily discounting just how much better Jester is in 3-4 player games. There's not really many cards that scale with players in the way Jester can.All junkers increase in strength in multiplayer games (forsaking a Witch in 2P implies that you deck will contain 10 Curses whereas forsaking a Witch in 3P implies that your deck will contain 20 Curses). As Jester can also junk out of a practically unlimited junk pool, Copper, he is used more often for junking than for gaining in multiplayer games. Just imagine three player open 5/2 with Jester; this will be a massive, snowballing junk festival and you will rarely hit something good with Jester.
So no, I don't buy the notion that Jester is a great gainer. It is a decent card but as it doesn't give you any control over what you gain it is too much of a loose canon to be even remotely as good as a precise control card like Artisan.
Forsaking a witch in 3P does not in the slightest imply your deck will contain 20 curses. In fact in three player games it's very difficult to get the entire curse pile to yourself. Each other player buying a witch and playing them 5 times each will give both opponents 5 curses and you 10 curses.
The on-gain component of jester, however, does double in efficacy entirely. You will on average gain twice as many cards.
You also for some reason assume
1) That everyone buys and plays Jester, which is an odd assumption given your claim that Jester is not particularly strong
2) That when they do so, they will primarily be junking opponents decks. Which is assuming that the jester is bought immediately and trashing is ignored. Again, an odd assumption to make when you're trying to claim that Jester is only a decent card.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 25, 2018, 05:01:46 pm »Hammering doesn't guarantee a win for scum. I think the assumption that scum would hammer town!Hydrad here is misleading.
I'm with this. I'm assuming there's an SK since there was some double deaths. Or if there is a vig its still not safe for scum.
So.... couple thoughts.
1) If there is an SK, the money play here for Mafia is to get an SK lynch, closely followed by the 2nd place finisher - getting a Town lynch.
2) If there is no SK, the money play here for Mafia is to get a Town lynch. Possibly including the additional....
3) If there is a Vig, then from a Mafia perspective, right now, specifically in regards to this situation, the situation is the same as the first one (with the SK).
Any which way you look at it, Mafia either knows or doesn't know that there is a SK (or Vig). But they (assuming) don't know WHO that potential player is. If it is Town!GalzHydrad - then hammering them literally covers alllllllllll of their optimal courses of action (just as it would if "Town!Anyone" was on the block right now).
Additionally, grasping at ridiculous notions like this offers an inherent upside for Skum (assuming now again that it is Skum!GalzHydrad)... it does exactly what Skum would want in this situation - draws out a ton of time and gives them the best chance of forcing a scramble during the last absolute minutes of the day.
The only vig that can exist is a dayvig. The second night kill is, without exception, from an SK.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 25, 2018, 04:11:54 pm »
It's easily worth the trade here and I think it's a quite fair assumption that scum would hammer town!GalzHydrad
There's not even a guarantee that hammering Galzria would lead to a lynch of the hammerer.
There's not even a guarantee that hammering Galzria would lead to a lynch of the hammerer.
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: Neat card interactions that were useful in the game you found them in.
« on: April 25, 2018, 03:04:15 pm »I think you guys are pretty heavily discounting just how much better Jester is in 3-4 player games.Suppose:
- It is a multiplayer game
I'm really not! It does begin to make more sense as the player count rises, agreed, but I suspect the confirmation bias of remembering that one time you managed to get a King's Court and forgetting all the times you had to decide whether to take a silver or give a silver plays a bigger part in how good people think it is.
There's plenty of games where everyone trashes down substantially and few silvers are bought. I assume this still holds true for 3-4P but I don't know for certain.
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Dominion General Discussion / Re: Neat card interactions that were useful in the game you found them in.
« on: April 25, 2018, 01:36:41 pm »
I think you guys are pretty heavily discounting just how much better Jester is in 3-4 player games. There's not really many cards that scale with players in the way Jester can.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 25, 2018, 12:33:33 pm »I have EFHW/O as the third scum. Not sure which one but lean O right now.
@Gkrieg Do you think it's likely two town members are not voting for GalzHydra, as is now implied by this statement?
We have some lovely evidence built up. Mainly that EFHW!Scum+GalzHydra!Town and LaLight!Scum + GalzHydra!Town are very unlikely. Surprising that Space hasn't posted and given us the third confirmation.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 25, 2018, 12:20:56 am »
Really it's mostly you as a lynch candidate tho. Also Space's pronouns are either They or She/Her (not sure if Space minds other people correcting, if so apologies!)
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 24, 2018, 11:54:27 pm »
Worth pointing out that Space!Scum and HydraGalz!Town is pretty unrealistic at this point
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 24, 2018, 11:29:34 pm »
Sup Hydrad!
Why should we not lynch you?
Why should we not lynch you?
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 24, 2018, 06:28:29 pm »Something in the ballpark of a gkrieg/Galz/LL scumteam with O as SK is starting to feel right to me.
yes, yes, yes, no.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 24, 2018, 06:20:18 pm »
meh nevermind Vote: Galzria
I don't see another lynch going through, especially not without Cuzz as a voter, so no point in paranoia over timing.
I don't see another lynch going through, especially not without Cuzz as a voter, so no point in paranoia over timing.
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 24, 2018, 06:17:36 pm »
Not sure if Cuzz is trying to quickhammer or something but that's some off timing..
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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M115: Okkervil River Mafia (D3: Day of our So-Called Friend)
« on: April 24, 2018, 06:16:58 pm »
Unvote
... were you waiting for me to vote?
... were you waiting for me to vote?