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3926

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1; DISCUSSION QUICKTOPIC NOW OPEN)

« on: June 05, 2012, 10:31:12 pm »

And I really have to go to bed.  I'll review this all tomorrow...as pops noted earlier, jo's bandwagon is much richer with info than his was (mostly because jo gave the mafia an excuse to jump all over him).

3927

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1; DISCUSSION QUICKTOPIC NOW OPEN)

« on: June 05, 2012, 10:29:43 pm »

given the two replies between...I think something should be said re: jotheonah cracked which gave us info:

I disagree...and I will site: Day 1 pressure recipients: TINAS cracked (town), Morgrim cracked (town), Galz cracked (town).  jo cracked...really, you really think that's mafia?

I guess that must be the main difference between us, I see value in the discussion around jo (it's value-rich), you see value in the mad ravings of a nearly dead-man (jo).  Now, he cracked pretty easy, but so did morgrim.  IMO This is EXACTLY what mafia wants. 

So, for all the jo voters, IMO either you're mafia, or you're listening to what they want you to hear.

3928

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1; DISCUSSION QUICKTOPIC NOW OPEN)

« on: June 05, 2012, 10:21:54 pm »

@Galz:
I agree.  I think Axxle is suspicious...he was the most suspicious to me of Pops' voters in the first read-through (as noted in my immediate post). but went down in suspicion on a reread. 

Obviously from my previous post I take issue with Axxle's desire to lynch early, and his desire to apply pressure in general.  But I won't lynch him for disagreeing with me on how to play.  I do disagree that jo's play is "too terrible to be mafia".  As noted, I think all defensive posts are essentially null when hunting for mafia, so jo's posts are as well. 

In fact given the above: I would like to hear from O and Axxle, since you guys seem to be all for an early end to Day 1.  Why the rush?  I've explained why I think early lynch is bad: (i.e. it's very probably mafia-driven (i'd say like 90%), so why not stop before we lynch a townie, and just pretend like it already happened?)  Why do you think an early lynch is good.  Do you really think that 8 townies will hit mafia in 10 hours?  Do you really think that defensive posts have merit as scum-tells?

Pre-edit: directed at Galz's post to me from 2-back at this point.

3929

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1; DISCUSSION QUICKTOPIC NOW OPEN)

« on: June 05, 2012, 10:06:18 pm »

Yea, lets wait until we get solid evidence and even poorer defense..

Owait, it's day one.

note I actually haven't voted for J though; I don't believe he's mafia, I just don't like your logic either.

Mafia may or may not have poor defense, as Galz noted previously (in his "non-defense" to my general pops-bandwagon accusation), and I noted there, the defense has no value, regardless of its quality.

So, do you think that a pure townie-driven bandwagon will develop quickly?  Or do you think it's illogical that the assumed mafia involvement indicates a non-mafia target?  I'm just curious what of my logic you dislike.

3930

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1; DISCUSSION QUICKTOPIC NOW OPEN)

« on: June 05, 2012, 09:55:33 pm »

This post is only in reference to the topic of the moment: jotheonah.

This is in reference to Axxle's question: why not wanting the day to end early?  Because I don't believe a full 8 town members will agree to lynch someone in quick order.  That's 2/3 of the town agreeing to lynch someone on flimsy evidence and poor defense.  I don't think a bandwagon full of townies will naturally develop over the course of two days.  If it's developed its unnatural, which means that there's mafia in there somewhere.  A lynch composed of townies will develop slowly a vote here or there, after another day it may pick up another vote, etc.  That's my opinion, you may disagree that's fine.  I disagree with a lot of your opinions and a lot of pops' opinions.

So, I think jotheonah is innocent because mafia is voting for him.  He could be witch...since mafia has no way of knowing who that is.  Could also explain his survivalist tendencies.  But Witch will be much harder to detect, I'm not really interested in a witch-hunt especially when one may not even exist.  I'm much more interested in mafia, because they're going to give us information we can actually use, like trying to pull together bandwagons of town.

Pressure is totally irrelevant.  We have gotten no information out of jotheonah in this bandwagon, bandwagons will never give you information about the person being attacked.  What it does is give us information about is everybody else.  So, whatever you think jo's shown you you should disregard.  You should look around at everyone else, just as the push on pops got us nothing from pops (except that he's smart enough to keep quiet until it blows over).  So suggesting the possibility of an early lynch for pressure is IMO poor town play.  It reads to me like you didn't understand the strategy articles you linked to before.

Finally, we could kill jo to find out he's town, or we could just accept that townie bandwagons are slower than this, and recognize he's town before we kill him.  Then we can look at the 6(or 7 if you like) votes he's gotten say "there's probably 2 mafia there", and have a 1/3 chance of hitting a mafia.  That's way better than the 1/14 chance that jo's mafia, and the astronomically small chance that 7 townies have all of their own accord said "that's the mafia right there yessir".  So, if you're mafia voting for jo, well your being suspicious.  If you're townie voting for jo, you should be saying "who's pulling my strings."  "Who am I listening to" and "Why am I not being skeptical of all these voices, when I know some of them are mafia".  Keep in mind that for the mafia, there is no chance that jo is one of them.  They already know he's town, and they already know they want to lynch him.  They're just trying to convince you.

3931

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1; DISCUSSION QUICKTOPIC NOW OPEN)

« on: June 05, 2012, 03:55:47 pm »

bah, I need to preview edit rather than post-edit more:

It should say:
As far as the "it's too obviously mafia, must be town" defense, I'm going with: obvious mafia play is obvious mafia play, not town play.  Which I will hereby always abbreviate as "Obvious play is obvious"

3932

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1; DISCUSSION QUICKTOPIC NOW OPEN)

« on: June 05, 2012, 03:53:00 pm »

cool, I finished it:
#330: cast suspicion on Axxle/Tables
Also mentions feelings on others
And a willingness to hammer/bandwagon while voting Insomniac.
-anyways, this post just struck me as off.

#354 he starts the "we, townies" suspicion on J.  (which as mentioned I disagree with)

#383/#397 (the quick win over to Pops)

#447: casts suspicion on Axxle again.

#555: brings back up Tables/Axxle, and adds in some SFS suspicion

#595 SFS again. #604 again

Obviously this could all be newbie town.  It strikes me that he's put himself into a position where he's willing to switch to lots of people, plus he's got the whole "I'm impressionable" defense.  Probably a big part of it is: I disagree with the reason for his suspicion of Tables/Axxle from 330.  I disagree with his reasoning in 354.

I'll have to look into the SFS push, but I'm betting I'll disagree there.  Maybe we just find different things suspicious?  Maybe he's grasping at straws, trying to fake scum-hunting and playing newb to be able to wagon anybody.

As far as the "it's obviously mafia" I'm going with the obvious mafia play is obvious mafia play, not town play.  Which I will hereby always abbreviate as "Obvious play is obvious"


---
@Pops: I think reasonably long well-reasoned posts slow down posting and help people catch up.  With time-zones and work schedules someone's always going to be catching up.  I think longer posts slow the game down because people start reading, rereading and thinking more while talking less.

3933

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1; DISCUSSION QUICKTOPIC NOW OPEN)

« on: June 05, 2012, 03:28:34 pm »

@Galz:
No argument from me there, as that was my point.  His defenses were not entirely based in this game, and your defense of your "persecution" of him was.  It's not a point in favor of him for bringing it up.  But you ignored it, hence my "to be fair" comment.  I don't like people talking past each other.

@Glooble (since you posted while I wrote this):
I'll look back over and try to concrete-ify my suspicions.  Note: I still haven't reviewed O's or Galz's posts.  Also Note: I may not be able to get it done before tonight, which may mean that I can't get it done before tomorrow morning (depending on how active the afternoon is).  I'm on EST.

3934

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1; DISCUSSION QUICKTOPIC NOW OPEN)

« on: June 05, 2012, 03:12:51 pm »

Okay, one question - is there a way to view only posts by a specific poster?

@pops: that's a reasonable explanation, but doesn't change the fact that it would be a good way to play scum.

I don't know if there's a better way, I just view all posts and ctrl-f the poster's name.

3935

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1; DISCUSSION QUICKTOPIC NOW OPEN)

« on: June 05, 2012, 03:03:31 pm »

He's sorry he said it now. I bet. For the record, my "persecution" of J as he sees it, is the THIRD person that I've gone after, each, in turn, to look for their own reaction as well as others individual thoughts. I have in NO way singled him out, and yet of the three people I've voted for, none have responded so defensively. Axxle was jumpy, sure, but not like THIS.

So no, J, you aren't special. I haven't set a crusade on you, or gone after you with single mindedness, or anything else. But it's enlightening (to me, at least) that you seem to think so.

To be fair Galz, I don't sense any idea of your "single-minded"ness in J's defense.  He used the term persecution, but was referring to the course of multiple games.
his defensiveness is suspicious, so is being pursued twice in the first two days (IMO).  Mafia want us to read suspicion into non-suspicious things, they want to keep bringing the same people under the spotlight until they crack.  And then they'll note how cracking under pressure is a clear sign of mafia, and encourage everyone to vote.  That's why I think bandwagons are the place to look.

3936

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1; DISCUSSION QUICKTOPIC NOW OPEN)

« on: June 05, 2012, 01:24:40 pm »

Galz: That's fine I don't expect the pops voters to comment on themselves.  But, as I noted before, if you were town voting for Pops, and if it was a mafia-involved bandwagon (which I can't imagine there wasn't at least one scum among them) means that you have a better chance of picking a mafia by choosing one out of those 4 then choosing one out of the remaining 10.  Now, of course, you're pursuing Jotheonah, but I'm interested in hearing especially from the pops-voters about their fellow pops-voters.

I'm pretty intuitive-minded, so I'm not very good at the specific unless challenged.  I'll work harder at it though.

Now for jotheonah:
I reread his posts, he doesn't strike me as mafia at all.  One of the items brought against him is his whole "we, townies" schtick, so I looked into it.  (Note: this is a good example of where I felt challenged about the specifics...I saw that argument made, but didn't notice it personally while reading his posts.  So, I checked the details to see why)

Here's what I found as relevant to the "we, townies" claim:
#103: first post: let's kill mafia today, we can do it!
#163: My aren't we a jumpy town.  (this is an expression...in fact it puts him as separate from town, which makes sense as he's pointing out that people like to vote for him)
#304: we need town all along the spectrum...
#337: talking about scumhunting.  "We can't be looking for obvious tells, etc"
#343: asking galz how to hunt scum "how ought we hunt scum"
#351: "We, on the other hand, have the option of being authentic"

-and then we hit 357 where he responds to Grujah's comment

#386 he refers to the town showing a general inclination toward appreciating humor.
#424 he refers to us looking for a pseudo-lurker for Mafia.


So, there you go, 6 whole posts where he uses some form of "we, townies".  1 of which is after Grujah's comment.  Note also, that he posted significant amounts about mafia theory between 163 and 304, where he talks about town in the third person.  He's posted what like 60 times in this thread?  I'm not buying it.  As already mentioned by Galzria, we should be motivated by actions, not words.  We have 2 big sources of action at the moment: 5 voters for pops.  And now we've had a total of 5 (real) votes for jotheonah: Captain_Frisk, pops, Green Opal, Galzria, and Tables.  With suspicion thrown around by Insomniac.

I'm not saying that neither should be suspected, in particular jotheonah's bandwagon is split over time (he's not yet topped 3 votes at once).

So, I've got more people to reread...which I should stop doing until after work (darn letting myself get distracted by game)

3937

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1; DISCUSSION QUICKTOPIC NOW OPEN)

« on: June 05, 2012, 12:41:46 pm »

oh, yeah...so, I obviously changed my mind, but forgot to change my vote.
Unvote
Vote: Grujah

3938

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1; DISCUSSION QUICKTOPIC NOW OPEN)

« on: June 05, 2012, 12:25:17 pm »

Reread all of 3 individuals' posts in the thread (Axxle, Grujah, and Insomniac).  After rereading, Grujah looks scummier than Axxle.  Insomniac looks pretty townie.  Which means pops looks scummier.  O and Galz are probably about even with Axxle in my mind.

Starting up a new wagon for jotheonah, eh?  hmm...I'll have to reread him, but at this point I think he's more likely town.  Especially because, isn't this the second time he's started accruing votes?  Or was it only suspicion prior?

So, Robz: any change in your opinion on me?

Nobody really has any comments on the Pops voters?  I know there have been some general dismissive votes, and a few claims of suspicion on Grujah, but I'd like to hear more from others, such as: Green Opal (not that you'll get to read this any time soon...) but you said something positive-seeming towards the idea that a scum is among the pops voters, before shifting to jotheonah.

P.S. Thanks to everyone who capitalizes Theorel, it looks so weird when I see my screen name uncapitalized.

3939

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 UNDERWAY)

« on: June 05, 2012, 07:38:39 am »

At least overnight posting was a little more reasonable than afternoon posting.

So, I didn't notice the second article from Axxle about the RVS.  I read the first article (on arguments), and saw it allude to future articles, but I didn't see where that future article was (if it was even from the same person).  It would be nice to have a feel for what someone who wanted to follow those articles would do, but regardless I'll make some comments based on this thread.

It seems to me from a purely practical perspective that if bandwagons are helpful to the town, it's because they can ferret out mafia.  How would they do this?
1: Mafia want to increase suspicion of non-mafia.  This means that they will trumpet the bad reasoning inherent to a bandwagon.
2: Mafia want to be in the middle of the pack of voters, so as to not stand out (presumably).  A bandwagon gives them opportunity to do that.

So, if we stop a bandwagon prematurely (say at 5 or 6 people) it stands to reason that 1-2 of those people is likely mafia (largely dependent on how many Mafia we have in the game).  For future reference (in order to stop excessive caveats) I'm going to assume we have 3 mafia for the course of day 1.  If we have more we have more power roles, better information probable day 2, if we have fewer, we have less power roles, and we're probably gonna be killing a lot of town.  Anyways, if we have 1 mafia in 5 players, it's actually no better probability of hitting one of 3 mafia in 15 players.  However, for any townies on the bandwagon, you've got 1 in 4 if it's true that the mafia are in the bandwagon.  (assuming uniform random choice, which you might be able to improve upon with your 'reads').

Alright, so that's the theoretical position I'm starting from, you may disagree that's fine...So, I'm going to look at the 5 people who voted for Pops before the bandwagon petered out and Galz jumped ship. (I think these are in order of voting, would appreciate correction if I'm wrong)
1. Insomniac: Pops voted for him, he voted back.  Pops thinks he was being overly defensive (Mafia tell, Pops says).  He was arguably even more defensive then, by returning the vote after supposedly getting info out of...( SFS was it?)  Suspicion: Medium

2. O: he plays a random, erratic game.  He voted for Pops early, but he's also in second position, the most suspicious of positions.  Suspicion: lower than Insomniac.

3. Galzria: He pushed the pressure trying to get an answer, did not feel convinced a bit later, and then finally jumped ship, meaning to me that either he's town, or getting out while the getting's good.  Suspicion: low

4. Grujah: I'll be honest, I get Grujah and DSell mixed up.  Their avatars look similar to me for whatever reason.  I've got no decent read on Grujah, I think he's new?  Maybe he's bandwagoning because of that.  He claims to be impressionable, which is bad for town (IMO).  So, Grujah, if you're Town - be Skeptical.  Don't be persuaded by others' arguments, make your own.  Mafia want to persuade you, town want information.  Suspicion: Medium (a little above Insomniac)

5. Axxle: He votes and unvotes and revotes.  I think it's clear that Pops cares little for the pressure he's under.  He's also one of the only 2 people to really interact with me since I started posting, and he was suspicious then unsuspicious.  So, he's hedging, or changing his mind a lot, but this also suggests he's playing somewhat transparently.  If he is mafia, I think he's the second mafia to vote for Pops. So, like the rollercoaster of his own play so are my feelings about him.  Suspicion: Highest of the 5, though not far above Grujah.

Note: everyone should keep in mind that we might have a witch, I use "Mafia", but could replace with "anti-town".  In fact, I find it much more likely that mafia + witch have voted for Pops, then that both Mafia have.

So, to clarify suspicion order (individually) is: Axxle, Grujah, Insomniac, O, Galzria.  If Axxle's mafia, I think one of the other 4 is, which increases the odds on the other 4.  Unfortunately it increases it most for O and Insomniac, if they're mafia (no-change if it's mafia+witch).  I guess that leaves Axxle on top, so that's where I'll vote, until further notice.

Vote: Axxle

Oh, one more thing, then I'll be quiet for a while again (since I have to y'know...work).
The analysis about numerics in whether we're better off lynching no-lynching is thrown completely off by existence of Militia and Witch (and Woodcutter).  If we lynch with one night-kill we maintain odd numbers which is good.  If we lynch with 2 night-kills we go into even number land which is bad (assuming mafia isn't hit).  OTOH: Mafia wants to kill Witch (and Witch mafia), so that's not quite as bad.  I just wanted to throw that out there, since extra night-kills totally throw off the better to lynch or not calculations.  I still think lynching day-1 is preferable because it gives us more information.  I also think that we should push close to a couple lynches before the end of the day ideally.  So, in my view any hammer on an early wagon is a very scummy move.

3940

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)

« on: June 04, 2012, 10:19:19 pm »

And, that's the whole thread.  Now for a quick post before bed...

@Pops: I didn't mean to say I wasn't going to read the thread (although I guess I did say IF...put it up to frustration at number of posts to read (especially because I couldn't read some while waiting for code to run at work because I couldn't get on f.DS))  The IF was more of a IF I read it all before I post.

Okay, the rest:

No one voted me for being silent?  I'm just not as cool as SFS and Glooble I guess...ah well.  It does mean that I can respond to every accusatory post, since no one really cares.  And, I guess I'll die night 1, since no one really cares...  Maybe this day will last a long time, slow down a bit, and things will change.

Things directed at me:
I played mafia IRL in college a few times.  I enjoyed it, but enjoyed more reading Mafia I and II.  I decided I wanted to play a forum game, since I haven't in some time...here I am with no forum mafia experience.

Quicktopic is totally fine by me

Hmm...Pops is at 4, so he's unlikely to be mafia...IMO too quick to build.  Of course Axxle was willing to push it further (from 3 to 4 also) nvm he hit it to 5.  Hmm...Draw your own conclusions, I don't think Pops is acting scummy.  The question is who's pushing the bandwagon looking for scum, and who's scum trying to jump on?

Wonder how many posts will be up by the time I read tomorrow morning?

3941

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)

« on: June 04, 2012, 08:45:22 pm »

Yay, I read all the way from my previous post to here.  (primarily posted to mark the spot..but I'll mention a couple things)

@Axxle: yeah, I'm not sure if I'll be able to break lurking habits.  If you look me up, you'll find that I don't tend to post a lot anywhere.  (I don't know how long I've been registered here with my remarkable 8 posts, but it's been a while, and I read a while before that too).  Anyways, I'll try to provide useful information to the town, and I'll push myself to post some.  I almost posted in the area of those first three posts, but couldn't come up with what to post.

-to the other part, I do think it would be good for everyone to go back through posts, and try to glean information from what we already have, and move forward using that information to gain more.  It sounds like it's mostly been non-serious voting...Glooble's suggested he'll be trying to tabulate info, which sounds like a reasonable idea.  Regardless of any analysis that's done, in my opinion (based on lurking and thinking) it's most important that people draw their own conclusions.  Try as hard as possible, not to be swayed by others' arguments, skepticism is the town's strongest weapon in my opinion (bandwagons being Mafia's).  If 4 people go into a vote, you should be analyzing the arguments harder, because as people we have a natural tendency to want to appear smart by aligning our views with others (even when they're wrong).

-Galzria's post is very well-pointed though towards what went wrong (IMO) in Mafia-II.  People listened to Galzria's/Robz's words and ignored actions.  That's what I noticed while lurking there: everyone who lynched Morgrim (except himself) lived...every one of them.  That said, I think well analyzed posts are helpful to town...we need to use the info we have to attempt to gain more.

Anyways, now to read the rest of this mammoth thread.

3942

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)

« on: June 04, 2012, 07:15:45 pm »

until then I'll probably not keep up entirely. (silly lost ends of sentences, I'm sure it was in my brain before I started typing)

3943

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (DAY 1 START!)

« on: June 04, 2012, 07:13:51 pm »

Hi all,
just posting more or less to say that I'm here, and I'll try to read some of the posts.  I was on when the game had just started...then I started to read just before the forum went down (at least for me) sometime this afternoon.  So, IF I read it all, I've got like 7 pages to read...anyways, I'll probably read backwards from now, starting in a couple hours when the kids go to bed.

I will say, that you are a talkative bunch...you should all resolve to read the entire thread each time you post, that will let those of us with less than all of our time keep up

Oh, also I'm guessing not all 7 pages (or however many there will be in the an hour and a half) have substance, so if anyone would like to sum up what's happened, I'm sure I would find it helpful.

Anyways, I'm sure posting will slow down tomorrow (game time) once there is information of actual substance, and the people with crazy amounts of free time actually start rereading the thread to determine what's actually going on...until then I'll probably.

Anyways, I'll post something more substantial tonight (can't guarantee much substance, since a lot depends on how much substance the rest of you lot have given)

PRE-EDIT: Also...it's ridiculous that my clicking post warning says that 6 posts were written in the time I took to write this one.
Pre-Edit2: and another one! goodness!

3944

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia IV: Within These Estate Walls (SIGN-UPS NOW OPEN)

« on: June 02, 2012, 07:55:44 am »

I'm in.

3945

Forum Games / Re: Any void left by Mafia I?

« on: June 01, 2012, 02:46:03 pm »

I've been following some of the Mafia threads, and it's pulled me out of lurking to wanting to play.

So, regardless of set up for the next game...I'm in.

3946

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)

« on: June 01, 2012, 02:44:01 pm »

I'll admit to following the thread (mostly...skimmed some of the super-long posts, especially Galzria's summaries.  And I only ever read things once).

I waffled around on who I thought was mafia...
Day 3 I suspected Robz, because of his bad math defending his Jailkeeper claim (assuming all investigations were non-lynched he had like a 28% chance of a counter-claim...additionally I supposed Insomniac was the un-scouted person).  Also I thought Insomniac's vote on Robz was bad Mafia play.  (why limit it to 50/50 as mafia when you could have 60-40 chance of non-mafia chosen).  But then I also thought Insomniac was guilty because you guys were so convincing.  Eventually, before the votes went down I decided that it "had to be" RobZ and Volt because of Volt's day 2 analysis which concluded the most likely pairing as I-K.  (seriously, 2 non-Morgrim voters as Mafia is MOST LIKELY???)
I never suspected Galz.

Anyways, that's what I thought reading through Day 3 (and I was definitely curious to find out who was really guilty)

I'm pretty much a lurker everywhere I go, so it wasn't much different to follow this.

3947

Puzzles and Challenges / Re: Easy Puzzle

« on: February 29, 2012, 12:13:41 pm »

I decided to just bite the bullet and figure it out myself... Modifying my second solution for a bigger game:

Trash Colony with a TFB card like Remodel to gain a Border Village, which you use to gain the last Silk Road.  The Border Village puts you up to a multiple of 3 action cards, powering up your Vineyards.  Colony into Border Village + Silk Road means your deck has 1 more card overall, and it just so happens that this bumps you up to a new multiple of 10, powering up your Gardens.  Also, that Border Village was the first one you got, bumping you up to a new multiple of 5 differently named cards.

Suppose you previously had 12 Fairgrounds, 12 Vineyards, 12 Gardens and 11 Silk Roads.  Note that this is possible because you need to 4-pile in a game with 6 players.

-10 VP from losing a Colony
+24 VP from powering up Fairgrounds
+12 VP from powering up Vineyards
+12 VP from powering up Gardens

= +38 VP net gain.

But you also get more VP from gaining the Silk Road.

Silk Road's worth stays the same because you lost a Colony and gained a Silk Road, so the total number of VP cards remains unchanged.  The exact worth of the final Silk Road is variable though.  The maximum I can determine:

Kingdom includes Vineyard, Fairgrounds, Gardens, Silk Road, Border Village, Great Hall, Harem, Tunnel, Duke, Farmland.

Note that the only Action cards in this set are Border Village and Great Hall.  Without depleting the pile you could have 11 Great Hall; grabbing the single Border Village bumps you up to 12 Actions, a multiple of 3, to round out the Vineyards.

Having every card in the Kingdom (minus Border Village) = 9 differently named cards.  Also throw in Estate, Duchy, Province and Colony for 14.  Copper, Silver, Gold and Platinum bump that up to 19, so adding in the single Border Village would push it to 20 to round out Fairgrounds.

As far as Gardens go, we can add or subtract the treasures to make sure the gains round those out as well.

Since all the constraints from my solution are now satisfied, by the end you could have:

12 each of Fairgrounds, Vineyards, Gardens and Silk Roads
11 each of Great Hall, Harem, Tunnel, Duke, Farmland, Estate, Duchy, Province
10 Colonies (1 was trashed, and 1 remains unpurchased to prevent ending on piles)

= 12*4 + 11*8 + 10 = 146 VP cards

Meaning that the SR gained at the end is worth 36 VP. 

The total net gain is thus +74 VP.

Just a couple mistakes there:
The TFB card must be Farmlands, otherwise you have to include Remodel, or whatever.  Also, 9+4 = 13, +4=17 total card types (not 19)  Including curse gets to 18 total.  You could throw in Young Witch to have 19...but really you only care about the break-point of going from 14 unique types to 15 unique types anyways.  So you'll need to leave out 3 of the treasure types, to be going to another multiple of 5.  I didn't check the rest of the map, just the obvious arithmetic errors for me

3948

Puzzles and Challenges / Re: 7 copper and 3 estate vs. 50 _____?

« on: February 17, 2012, 07:46:54 am »

Thought of a couple more that should have been pretty obvious:
1. 50 Ironworks:
a) wins on board with Great Hall, Island, and any other action card at $4 or less.  (2 turn game ftw!)
b) loses on a board with no action cards under 5...(I think all 8 estates + gameover in 8 turns would give the game to Ironworks, but maybe not since the other player just needs a couple duchies to win against that...so maybe any board without alt. VPs under 4 would take the Ironworks player)

2. 50 Workshops
a) Wins with Gardens, Silk Road, and no +buy/gainers.  Gardens will be worth at least provinces by the end, then the Gardens player can take some Silk Roads, which should be good enough for him.  Without +buy, the other player should be unable to catch up.
b) loses like ironworks (no actions under 5) trivially.  But it probably loses on pretty much any board without Gardens, I mean 10 turns of grabbing some under-$4 cards aren't gonna be able to beat much.

ooh, on the subject of Gainers, I'll bet Feast could work similarly. 
(it can get all the duchies in 8 turns, but closing out the game in 26 turns isn't very impressive...so a decent mega-turn, like say native village Bridge could probably take it by buying out the provinces.  On the other hand, just like for Workshops, Gardens makes it nearly unbeatable.  (add in Duke and you've got a pretty sure thing I think)

3949

Puzzles and Challenges / Re: 7 copper and 3 estate vs. 50 _____?

« on: February 16, 2012, 08:55:58 pm »

Answering the OP, I can think of 2 ideas, though I've not fleshed them out with particulars:

1. 50 Develops:
a) loses on a board with no 4's (and no 2's: 10 estates for the first 10 turns, or waste 'em all...yay!)
b) probably easy enough to make a board with some decent synergies that it can dominate.

2. 50 Upgrades:
b) This would quickly take a board with Border Village and Duchess.  (ooh 2 turn win )
a) I think the easiest way to make it likely to lose is the Ironworks-Island-Great Hall board, also with no 6's and 7's.  After the first 5 turns you have 25 upgrades, and all the golds.  Of course some lucky gold colisions could get you in the VPs, but you're upgrades are gonna be clogging things for at least a few more turns before you can reliably get good stuff going on.

3950

Dominion General Discussion / Re: THE Dominion Card List(s): $5 cards

« on: February 02, 2012, 01:48:49 pm »

http://councilroom.com/win_rate_diff_accum.html?cards=Cost%3D%3D6 is a pretty stark depiction of what I'm talking about.  By and large, Adventurer just doesn't belong in this cost tier.

that graph is a little unfair to Adventurer.  He's not alone in the negative slope of cards costing 6+:
http://councilroom.com/win_rate_diff_accum.html?cards=Cost%3E%3D6%20%26%26%20Action