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2076

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 12, 2020, 01:43:31 pm »

Can we get 5 more for faust? Is anyone currently on EFHW willing to consider faust? If not, we'd need all 5 others:

Dylan
Rhand
joth
GHS
Gloobie


PPE 4 others

I'll hammer, but...

So faust is at an effective L-3 (with Mix hammer)
EFHW at L-2, possibly effective L-1 if there's a hammer there, as well.

And whether town or not, cube seems to have saved himself (though endangered his "squire") with his claim.

2077

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 12, 2020, 01:42:29 pm »

Can we get 5 more for faust? Is anyone currently on EFHW willing to consider faust? If not, we'd need all 5 others:

Dylan
Rhand
joth
GHS
Gloobie


PPE 4 others

I'll hammer, but...

So faust is at an effective L-3 (with Mix hammer)
EFHW at L-2, possibly effective L-1 if there's a hammer there, as well.

2078

Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto 4

« on: June 12, 2020, 01:41:11 pm »

/in

Was cauliflower for "cauliflower ear"? I only saw that once I googled after game end.

2079

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 12, 2020, 01:38:23 pm »

Can we get 5 more for faust? Is anyone currently on EFHW willing to consider faust? If not, we'd need all 5 others:

Dylan
Rhand
joth
GHS
Gloobie


PPE 4 others

2080

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 12, 2020, 12:58:30 pm »

I would be willing to consider switching to faust. He's still in my scumreads, and it seems to me that lynching a Squire is not the worst, mechanically.

As, even in the situation where both hyper and faust are town, faust's powers are vulnerable to a kill on hypercube anyway.

Of course I still have bad memories of scum-EFHW combined with bus driving my vigshot on her from Falling Skies so I'm fine with that lynch as well. Lynching hypercube seems mechanically poor, since I don't have a scumread on him.

I would also not want to lynch: WCD, Rhand, Galzria, Jimmmmm, scolapasta. Or Glooble, obviously.

I would still want to lynch: GreatHallScout, but nobody wants to join me. Not opposed to a Dylan lynch if it comes down to that.

Others are meh lynches to me rn.

Thanks for articulating this lynching squire thought - I wanted to get the vote out there ASAP, in case it can build, but yes, the fact that it was one of my scum reads and that lynching the squire is not so bad. i.e. if they're both town, what's to stop scum from NKing cube to get rid of two sets of powers.

I'll admit I'm not quite sure I accept the role of the squire as presented though, my guess is there's more to it.

Re: GHS - I could get on board, but I don't think that builds like faust could.

2081

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 12, 2020, 12:44:47 pm »

OK, finally caught up on 7+ pages since last night.

Lots going on.

Re: my MiX "obsession" - I don't see it that way, mostly just I presented an argument, looking for good counter reasons, and all the counter reasons pointed out seemed not logically sound to me. So I wanted to point them out. That said, (and I have stated a few times) that the specific argument may itself be a red herring. I still think it, but I know it's not strong enough by itself for others.

OK, moving on, as we are 2+ hours from DL.

I had been leaning EFHW vs cube on the wagons (and may still get there), but I do like the idea of

vote: faust

So will second that one and see if others join in. If it doesn't build enough within the hour, will revisit my vote. I should be around for DL, assuming no work thing comes up.

2082

Weekly Design Contest / Re: Weekly Design Contest Thread

« on: June 11, 2020, 09:38:29 pm »

[v0.4 (and official contest entry) posted here]


Here's a card I actually created a long time ago and have been saving for the right week, Iron Bridge:

Iron Bridge - Action - $5

Gain a card costing up to $4.
-
While this is in play, cards that share a type with the gained card cost $2 less.

It's "While this in play", so it's not too strong with TR variants.

(sharp eyed readers may notice its v0.2; the unposted v0.1 had only a $1 reduction and cost $4, but it felt much more interesting to have a $2 reduction, since the buy type was restricted.)

2083

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 06:46:08 pm »

EFHW in your response to Jimmm you say
“The Didds slip was not the one faust said - I don't expect her to know or anticipate people having non-order powers. But the special powers are not published in the OP, so giving house and order is not a fullclaim. Someone who is not a knight would be more likely to make that mistake. And if it is a mistake, why is she lying about having an order? So I think this is a legit slip.“

I responded before, But in the interest of clarity....I do not have any powers that are not tied to my order. I have the two listed in the set up, and then a third that is also tied to my order. It is not listed for everyone to read, but It would be the same ability for everyone else In my order presumably because it’s explained that as a ___ I can also ____.

Glooble and someone else (Mix) have said this is true for them as well. You are imagining something that is not there. You might have abilities tied to your order. I do not.

Any chance you could point me to where Mix said that?

FWIW, I'm willing to claim the same - I have powers related to two surges, and then 1 other special order power.

Yes, I am aware of these things. My point is that a fullclaim would include the special power, esp since she couldn't know if everyone had one and because it was very unlikely Eddie would know her special power just from hearing her order. So there is a contradiction.  Plus the overemphasis on Eddie acting anti town. Two questionable things can reasonably add up to a vote Day 1.

He didn’t ask about powers. He asked for house and order. According to Dylan, he needed house and order to fulfill the task, and become a real boy. There was no discussion about powers, so injecting that into what he asked us to claim, and then saying I should have done it, or known about it..... it just seems like you are looking reasons to oppose me instead of trying to understand what went down, and I was sharing the information to help other people try to understand what went down.

That's the things he asked me about, but when I asked about his wincon, he did not specify that claiming those two things would flip him. From our convo, I'm not sure what degree of detail is involved in whatever full claim he needed.

Let's ask him: Eddie what do you need to flip your alignment? (also, once flipped, can it be changed again?)

2084

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 06:44:37 pm »

I think the 5 vs 15 thing is NAI. It would be very MiX to see all the 15 sphere costs and happily extrapolate that to powers with unknown costs.

So town!MiX would know all the surge powers and his own special power for a total of 20 powers (one surge only has 1 power).

Here are the the surge power costs:

Cost	Number
15	7
30	6
50	3
10	1
5	1
variable	1

Even if his special order power is 15 (which if it's not, I'll eat a hat), I don't see how you'd use that to extrapolate 15 for other special order powers.

2085

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 06:32:39 pm »

It tells scum who can be in what order.

HOW?

Anyone with a cost different from 5 isn't a Dustbringer. Anyone with a cost different from mine isn't my order. Anyone with a cost different from a specific order scum knows of isn't of that order.

OK, that's fair. I don't think that is actually much of a reveal as I think there are probably at most 2-3 of any order anyway. I have no evidence - just that there are 10 orders and at most 18 knights. And while some orders may not be in the game, more orders do allow for more special powers, so setup wise I imagine there's more of a mix (no pun intended) than less.

2086

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 06:16:13 pm »

It tells scum who can be in what order.

HOW?

2087

Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto 4

« on: June 11, 2020, 06:14:25 pm »

Also, here's our thread:
https://www.quicktopic.com/53/H/axYkkUvV9EYAt

2088

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 06:07:05 pm »

Cost claiming is bad, it outs Orders to scum.

How so?

We already know that all town are in Orders (and scum too). So the only people who do not have orders are 3rd party. They'd probably lie anyway, so all scum would know is people saying costs. The costs by themselves do not out any particular order.

Like in the end how does it pan out?

Skum lies, or tell the truth... whatever no way of telling.
Town tells the truth.
Now skum knows all and town has to guess who is lying about costs?

I actually change my mind, I don't really see the point in a public claim here.

PPE - yeah, what mix said

This maybe a little more. i.e town won't know which costs are real and which are not. But we can assume out of 18 that X are town, so that means X are real. And I do think that could be useful (mostly in trying to prove my case against MiX).

What does scum learn? Well, some of the answers will still be lies (3rd party). But they will know that X (out of Y, where Y is 18 - # of scum) are true. But what will that really tell them? Does it really help them if they know my power costs 5, 10, 30, or 50?

i.e. I don't see what we really risk revealing, while I think we either find evidence for or against MiX).

2089

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 05:58:58 pm »

I confirm what Didds said.

Do you want me to show where I claimed that? It was something like I was questioning faust if he was actually saying that, in a way that claimed that I didn't have any.

OK, found it #836. I did wonder if that's what you were claiming there, since it was phrased as a question "..does anyone else have powers outside the Order?"

So you're confirming now that your only powers are the surge powers plus the special order power?

2090

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 05:44:29 pm »

1) I don't think that's what faust is saying there. His point is that it looked like the times where someone makes an easily explainable, almost trivial mistake and other people latch onto it as a "scumslip" and get tunnel vision on that one thing in spite of the body of work the suspect has done through the rest of the game.

2) Yeah, we do. Say there are two theories to explain a certain event. Theory A requires something, let's call it P, to be true. P only has a slim chance of being true. It is not irrelevant to consider how likely the case that not P is true, as if it is determined that not P is true, then Theory A cannot be true.  Theory A is that MiX saw the scumteam's abilities and projected out that all special role powers cost 15.  This would only be true if, P, the whole scum team has nothing but 15 cost special powers.  The likelihood that Theory A is true is affected by how likely you think P is.  I have seen 1 special ability, and it does not cost 15. I guess I can trust that Mix is telling the truth that at least his is 15.  So for the abilities I "know," it's 50/50 on if a given person's ability costs 15. Obviously there is a huge amount of uncertainty there, but from my perspective, choosing 3 or more people is going to be fairly likely to pick at least 1 person with a not 15 cost ability. Thus, I don't think theory A is the best explanation for the assumption.

OK I see your point about what he was trying to say. I don't agree with it and I don't think my continued effort to understand MiX's assumptions here is trivial.

I definitely don't agree with your number 2, in that I don't think you're saying the same thing MiX is saying.

That said, I do think knowing the probability of P (that scum order special powers are all 15) would be useful. While scum may now lie, I'm thinking that we all claim the cost of our special power. I don't think that gives away anything particularly useful?

(I'm, also aware that we probably won't get enough info here in order to build the MiX wagon until at least D2)

I believe I agree with the part about SP cost claiming... minus the fact that it would tell skum who has the SPs. Maybe we could work this into the claim to Eddie bit?

but what are we basing the concept of "all skum has special powers on?" I could be missing something, but is this just like an assumption or has someone actually claimed to have this info?

I did forget about 3rd party, who would also likely choose to lie. But I don't think it reveals anything at all about town:
(from setup)

"1. All players that start out as Town- and Mafia-aligned are Knights Radiant"

"In addition, each Order has access to 1 role power that is unique to their Order."

2091

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 05:29:37 pm »

EFHW in your response to Jimmm you say
“The Didds slip was not the one faust said - I don't expect her to know or anticipate people having non-order powers. But the special powers are not published in the OP, so giving house and order is not a fullclaim. Someone who is not a knight would be more likely to make that mistake. And if it is a mistake, why is she lying about having an order? So I think this is a legit slip.“

I responded before, But in the interest of clarity....I do not have any powers that are not tied to my order. I have the two listed in the set up, and then a third that is also tied to my order. It is not listed for everyone to read, but It would be the same ability for everyone else In my order presumably because it’s explained that as a ___ I can also ____.

Glooble and someone else (Mix) have said this is true for them as well. You are imagining something that is not there. You might have abilities tied to your order. I do not.

Any chance you could point me to where Mix said that?

FWIW, I'm willing to claim the same - I have powers related to two surges, and then 1 other special order power.

2092

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 05:06:23 pm »

1) I don't think that's what faust is saying there. His point is that it looked like the times where someone makes an easily explainable, almost trivial mistake and other people latch onto it as a "scumslip" and get tunnel vision on that one thing in spite of the body of work the suspect has done through the rest of the game.

2) Yeah, we do. Say there are two theories to explain a certain event. Theory A requires something, let's call it P, to be true. P only has a slim chance of being true. It is not irrelevant to consider how likely the case that not P is true, as if it is determined that not P is true, then Theory A cannot be true.  Theory A is that MiX saw the scumteam's abilities and projected out that all special role powers cost 15.  This would only be true if, P, the whole scum team has nothing but 15 cost special powers.  The likelihood that Theory A is true is affected by how likely you think P is.  I have seen 1 special ability, and it does not cost 15. I guess I can trust that Mix is telling the truth that at least his is 15.  So for the abilities I "know," it's 50/50 on if a given person's ability costs 15. Obviously there is a huge amount of uncertainty there, but from my perspective, choosing 3 or more people is going to be fairly likely to pick at least 1 person with a not 15 cost ability. Thus, I don't think theory A is the best explanation for the assumption.

OK I see your point about what he was trying to say. I don't agree with it and I don't think my continued effort to understand MiX's assumptions here is trivial.

I definitely don't agree with your number 2, in that I don't think you're saying the same thing MiX is saying.

That said, I do think knowing the probability of P (that scum order special powers are all 15) would be useful. While scum may now lie, I'm thinking that we all claim the cost of our special power. I don't think that gives away anything particularly useful?

(I'm, also aware that we probably won't get enough info here in order to build the MiX wagon until at least D2)

2093

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 04:58:03 pm »

No about dibbs.
It’s so clear that the extra power belongs to the order that calling house + order a fullclaim is totally NAI.

I don't know what Dylan's power belonging to the order has to do with anything.

If Dylan is town, then we already have a claim with order power revealed.
It makes the whole “mafia would forget that part with a full claim” idea less likely.

I'm not arguing that the special order power is what Didds ignored as being part of a fullclaim, I'm arguing that she forgot that you can have powers completely unrelated to your order.

You're not looking too good here either.

Care to explain this more? It reads like you're claiming town has more powers than surge powers + order special power. Is that what you're saying?

2094

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 04:19:25 pm »

what about you, Rhand, what's your top 4 scums looking like?

I don’t know at this point. Faust’s handling of me has gotten me to a point where I keep procrastinating catching up in this game.
I’ll come back to it tomorrow, I promise.

Part of me is hoping faust is just cocky scum and that’s why he is like that.

there is no tomorrow. DL is in like 18 hours or something.

I think that's tomorrow for the Euro folks.

2095

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 03:33:36 pm »

The fact that you don't agree that this is at least a reason to be suspicious of MiX is weird. The fact that you didn't check if it was actually reasonable with any combo of 5 before suggesting that is weird.

I get that I could be following a red herring. But to be so dismissive of this - including "this is bad" seems itself suspicious.

I'm actually very much looking forward to Jim's read of MiX, to see if he (or frankly anyone) has opinions on this.

I mean, you may be right, after all MiX himself seemed to suggest that there was something more going on. To me it just looked like the thing where people scumread someone because they accidentally wrote "scum" when they meant "town". Also MiX has done a lot more this game. I always find that zeroing in on perceived "scumslips" and not judging the whole performance of a player leads to bad results.

Sure, but this wasn't accidental. He repeated several times about spending 15 for reporter. Again, I may completely be going down the wrong path here, but this wasn't a type: MiX made an assumption that it costs 15 in his words "for some reason".

He admitted as much about making an assumption, and I don't think anyone has suggested it was a typo.

Faust did, in the msg I was responding to:

To me it just looked like the thing where people scumread someone because they accidentally wrote "scum" when they meant "town".

He got a couple votes early particularly because of how many assumptions he made in that conversation. You're saying he would be more likely to project out from the scums' powers all costing 15. MiX is saying it's more likely that scum would have different cost abilities and so that's an unlikely assumption for scum to make.  Honestly, until we have more info, I don't think there's any point going down this path because there is a plausible narrative both ways.

I didn't realize I was still on MiX. Unvote.

Well, I'm also saying (and this is just as important) that there should be some reason he would project that and I'm trying to hunt that down. "For some reason" is not good enough.

I mean yes it's true that if scum had different cost order special powers, scum!Mix would not make that assumption, but we don't need to consider that case, since MiX did make that assumption. That's not a logical counter argument.

2096

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 02:40:14 pm »

What is the reasoning behind Galz wagon here?

The only thing I can find at all surrounding him is his back and forth with faust. Are ya'll reading that as skummy?

That, Jimmmmms reread, his general of disengagement, lack of helpfulness to town, that EFHW isn’t happening.

Later tonight, I'll try to reread some of galz and efhw, see if anything jumps out at me.

2097

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 02:19:23 pm »

The fact that you don't agree that this is at least a reason to be suspicious of MiX is weird. The fact that you didn't check if it was actually reasonable with any combo of 5 before suggesting that is weird.

I get that I could be following a red herring. But to be so dismissive of this - including "this is bad" seems itself suspicious.

I'm actually very much looking forward to Jim's read of MiX, to see if he (or frankly anyone) has opinions on this.

I mean, you may be right, after all MiX himself seemed to suggest that there was something more going on. To me it just looked like the thing where people scumread someone because they accidentally wrote "scum" when they meant "town". Also MiX has done a lot more this game. I always find that zeroing in on perceived "scumslips" and not judging the whole performance of a player leads to bad results.

Sure, but this wasn't accidental. He repeated several times about spending 15 for reporter. Again, I may completely be going down the wrong path here, but this wasn't a type: MiX made an assumption that it costs 15 in his words "for some reason".

2098

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 02:08:23 pm »

While I agree that the style of the claim seems very MiXish, I still think there should still be a valid reason for an assumption. In this case, I fail to see it:

Assuming he has access to 5 powers, then it can't be that since there's no combo of 5 that are all 15. So then next, it's the one extra order power - who makes an assumption off 1 example??

But if I say to you this story: "scum talk N1, learn that all their order special powers cost 15. One of them observes, hmmm, looks like all order special power could cost 15 (or something like that), and then for one of them to scumslip" - I mean that should at least sound plausible no?

The fact that you don't agree that this is at least a reason to be suspicious of MiX is weird. The fact that you didn't check if it was actually reasonable with any combo of 5 before suggesting that is weird.

I get that I could be following a red herring. But to be so dismissive of this - including "this is bad" seems itself suspicious.

I'm actually very much looking forward to Jim's read of MiX, to see if he (or frankly anyone) has opinions on this.

this is good. i like this from scolapasta.

Why? It's a stretch at best and it's occupying all of his attention. If I was scum I would know a bit more what a Reporter ability would cost by comparing with other order powers. But I just have mine, and that doesn't let me extrapolate much.

Um... isn't "If I was scum I would know a bit more what a Reporter ability would cost by comparing with other order powers" exactly what I'm saying?

And while it's occupying all my posting, it's not occupying all my attention. A lot of it really has been faust's pushback on this not being a reasonable lead.

2099

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 02:03:19 pm »

talk to me, scola: gun to head, who are your top ~4 picks for mafia?

Well, clearly MiX. Possibly also faust and GHS? I don't know, even with all the chatter, I have yet to feel super strong on D1.

(I am concerned about misreading both MiX and faust, as I know their styles of play do lead to misreads)

2100

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 12:07:28 pm »

@faust, reading this, can you explain how you thought MiX could assume 15 cost for an order power?

He made a wrong assumption and ran with it. Seems very MiX.

I could easily see that if all scum order powers cost 15 for Mix to erroneously assume that all order powers are 15.

This is quite literally impossible, I just looked at all the surges and scum must have powera that don't cost 15. So, what do you think was the origin of my mistake?

Again, I don't know. I thought this might be a reasonable way to get there, but I didn't check. I think it's equally unlikely that somehow all the scum stuff costs 15. I think you just were confused and mixed up some numbers, there doesn't need to be a huge reasoning behind it.

While I agree that the style of the claim seems very MiXish, I still think there should still be a valid reason for an assumption. In this case, I fail to see it:

Assuming he has access to 5 powers, then it can't be that since there's no combo of 5 that are all 15. So then next, it's the one extra order power - who makes an assumption off 1 example??

But if I say to you this story: "scum talk N1, learn that all their order special powers cost 15. One of them observes, hmmm, looks like all order special power could cost 15 (or something like that), and then for one of them to scumslip" - I mean that should at least sound plausible no?

The fact that you don't agree that this is at least a reason to be suspicious of MiX is weird. The fact that you didn't check if it was actually reasonable with any combo of 5 before suggesting that is weird.

I get that I could be following a red herring. But to be so dismissive of this - including "this is bad" seems itself suspicious.

I'm actually very much looking forward to Jim's read of MiX, to see if he (or frankly anyone) has opinions on this.