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76

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 20, 2018, 03:10:03 pm »

The list at the end isn't as bad as the iguana thing. I'm mostly townreading you for that.

Ok, have a point-by-point response..

Raptor goes VLA, and votes EFHW over ss. Could be the case if both are town. Would definitely be the case if ss is scum, EFHW is town

If EFHW was confirmed town and raptor was confirmed scum, then I would certainly agree that this constitutes some evidence. Bayes says so. But neither of them are confirmed. None of all three are confirmed! All you have is unconfirmed player #1 voting for unconfirmed player #2 over unconfirmed player #3.

Also if bussing is a thing, then why didn't raptor bus? If bussing isn't a thing, then why am I actively trying to get raptor lynched? Am I particularly known to buss as scum? I don't think so.

Raptor lists me/silver/? as the team, because of the coalition, and then votes me. If I get lynched and flip town, hey, ss isn't so scummy any more, is he?

I'm pretty agnostic as to whether it would be easier to use this to argue that I'm scummy or townie.

Bussing? Yadda yadda. Scum ss could be in the mentality I caught Raptor red-handed and has to vote to save face? Maybe that's a stretch

This is an argument for me being town.

The Galz case against ss. That dang smarty pants, he knows everything!

There is basically no overlap between your two cases. Do you think anything galz said was about me was alignment indicative? If so what?

The ss wagon EOD push was Galz, Simon, EFHW. I've said before I'm leaning town on EFHW because I'm leaning scum on Raptor. If I'm right on this and on Simon (more assumptions! Yay!), that makes this a 3 town wagon

Only galz is confirmed town. The other two are my second biggest scum read and a null read.

1. Correct. So I'm voting Raptor to see. If he's scum, my trust for EFHW goes way up. I don't believe in a bus here because Raptor goes VLA. You don't park your vote on a teammate in this situation on D1. In general, bussing is a thing. For you, I don't know. I've never seen you as scum, I only have your word for it.

2. It seems easier to me to view you as scummy from this. Though I get that it could paint you as townie.

3. Don't see why. Null at best, though null most likely.

4. I think Galz and I just like to look at different things. It seems that he likes to use more of a tone based argument (not the right word for it, I don't how better to explain), I'm trying to use the most concrete evidence I can get my hands on. My initial suspicion of you was a result of POE, his was not. But the point is he's a smart guy. If he says something, he could be right. Unless it's about me. Again, this is another of the points I'm not placing too much weight on.

5. That Simon read is your choice. I think it's bad. More on that later. As for EFHW, you yourself have acknowledged scum Raptor makes town EFHW. This theory could be totally wrong IF Raptor is town. I don't know this until he flips. All I do know is I have given him numerous chances to try and prove himself this day, but he hasn't given anything.

So. I certainly think that you should think that I am very likely town in the event that raptor flips  scum.

But, if you disagree, that's fine, as long as you are consistent. Right now I'm worried that either raptor will flip scum and you'll say that'll make me scum because he didn't vote for me once, or he'll flip town and that'll make me scum because I was trying to get him lynched. Both of these things seem rationalizable.

So how about you tell me right now which outcome makes me look better in your book? That way you don't get to choose afterwards.

Admittedly, this actually was one of things I was thinking about, in that there is a case against you no matter the flip (and assuming TA is the NK). I'm not sure I can give you an answer to your satisfaction, but I do think there's a lot that can happen before a D3 vote. 12 vs 13 players bothers me a lot because we likely have only 1 safe mislynch left. If Raptor flips town, I'm probably dead tomorrow because people are going to trust me a lot less than do already. If they do at all, in some cases. There's no more 'narrowing down' opportunities, it's just straight up 'vote for the scummiest people'.

I'm going to reserve the right to change my mind D3 because this is mafia, opinions are like leaves in the wind. Meantime, I could vote you either way based on the flip, as you yourself were speculating. What I will say, however, is that with 3 scum left out of 7 unknowns if he flips town, my vote would probably go to Robz (or alternatively EFHW, based on my gut that this indeed a 1 v 1).

2 possibilities:
1. Simon is scum. 2 more scum. Where? Raptor would ideally be out of the picture by then. So either they're both bussing, or 1 chose not to. It's still unlikely to me Simon/EFHW is a team (choice between 5-5 of a town and scum, she picks the scum). So both scum were bussing early then? If that's not the case, there's only 1 remaining suspect: Robz.

2. Simon is town. 3 scum in that group of 6 voting him is a possibility, I need to keep that in mind. But if it's not, same reasoning as before applies. 6 of the 10 town were either VLA or voting Galz if Robz is town. Odd.

If he is scum, we still get the mislynch for narrowing down. I could reconsider my options then if there's another direction I want to go in.

77

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 20, 2018, 01:46:44 pm »

The Raptor-EFHW thing is more interesting. ss's activity on that wagon ought to make him a candidate as well, and then there's all but certainly a scum in those 3.

Agreed. Though note that both silver and Simon were on the wagon earlier. It's the period of the game around #250 that I'm looking at in particular. The EFHW wagon is stalled at 3 people (EFHW and Raptor being the unknowns), and the other obvious wagon is on TA, with Robz, you and Simon. What are the scums trying to do at that point in the game if the EFHW wagon is three-towns-on-town?

This is how things looked at #278:
Skumpy (1): gkrieg13
TwistedArcher (3): Robz888, Skumpy, Simon Jester
EFHW (3): TwistedArcher, Xxraptorslayer96, iguanaiguana
silverspawn (2): Galzria, EFHW
Simon Jester (3): silverspawn, SpaceAnemone, DatSwan

Your hypothesis is that both Raptor and silver are scum, which makes EFHW look really townie. She's the next person to join that three-person TA wagon, so from your PoV, then Robz is almost definitely the third of the trio, given your vigorous defence of Simon. Does that work for you? If not, who is the third scum here, and what is their motivation with the current voting pattern that made them want to stay away from two good town-on-town wagons?

I won't speak for all people, but for me: as scum D1, I'm trying to make the most reasonable case possible, which means I may not be aiming for the most dangerous town or hopping on the biggest and easiest wagon. Gkrieg could be scum who thought I was doing a bad job as town and has tunneled me relentlessly. It would be a great move, since nobody's voted him. To be clear, it's also not a hypothesis I'm super confident I'm in, so I'm not ruling you and Swan out of the picture. Robz/ss/Raptor is certainly a possibility. It's not the only one.

Not a great answer, I apologize. But if I think EFHW is town, I don't understand how her move to a big wagon affects the people already there? I guess it's more Monty Hall.

Skumpy's case on silver seems to boil down to silver stating a townread on iguana Day 1. How does your scum!narrative account for his behavior at EOD?

I've answered this before. I believe it was a dual-town wagon. Therefore, I have no interest in the EOD. Scum tries to look towny as possible. silver could be town who wants to get a lynch through. silver could be scum acting like a town who wants to get a lynch through. Unless Simon's scum, I don't care. As for the case based on a townread on Iguana, it started that way, but after a readthrough, I feel like there's more to it than that.



To ss: That's fair, and I was trying to set a precedent here for something, so sure. But even if I was to stick to my breaking-of-the-contract due to strong confidence in my theory, I have a tough time imagining you getting lynched over Raptor today, so it probably would never have come to it anyways.


But as for the case being bad, I would strongly disagree with that. It's my case, but still. Of the bulleted list, #3 might be a stretch, #4 may not be that relevant. Of the other 3, where is my logic going wrong? Yes, this is mainly based on my feeling that Raptor is scum, so it could be way off. Therefore, I need to try to verify it by voting Raptor (though you being scum without Raptor could also be a thing). And if Raptor flips scum, a lot can still happen, there's a very good chance I wouldn't vote you the next day.

78

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 20, 2018, 03:19:02 am »

Let's chit chat about ss now, shall we?

As a reminder, this was my case D1 against TA (and ss):

@Skumpy What do my posts have to do with your voting TA?

I enjoy saying cryptic remarks, and explaining later.


Here's where I'm at right now.

I find Iguana very townie at this point. I haven't played with him much before, but he's active, and that counts for something. More than something. And furthermore, I like his posts, and I like the way he's playing. There's a lot he has going for him.

Now there's 2 possibilities.

1. I'm way, way wrong, and Iguana is in fact scum. I don't believe it now. But if it's true, this game will not go very smoothly.

2. I'm right, and Iguana is town. Iguana has posted so much at this point that people surely have to be townreading the lizard, right? No! Because by my count, only 3 have. And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility, and preferably on the most townie people. If Iguana is town, 3 other people here know this. I have to think that one is going to take notice of his talkative play and give him town status, or at least townie. Which doesn't leave many possibilities.

Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.

So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.

Also worth noting that in direct response, Iguana said 'good case! I'm voting ss!', which was the bulk of the evidence for me of TA being the mason.

Now, given that I'm town, that Iguana is town, and that TA is all but certain town, it seems ss must be scum based on the case. I must admit that I had largely ignored this for the better part of D2 in favor of other theories, but as the day's progressed and TA has revealed himself as mason, silver has launched up my scum reads, despite his direct protestations that he wouldn't white knight as scum (as a reminder, I don't care about white knight in the case, only about townread). Why am I not voting there right now? A couple reasons.

First and foremost, the coalition, which we said would be through D2. Am I breaking it? Well, not yet sadly (cue Galz pulling out his hair and screaming from the grave). There are other candidates at this point who I do have my eye on. Namely Raptor. However, whereas yesterday I said I would not start/join a wagon on ss and would not hammer him even if it was needed, today I am sorry to tell you, ss, that I will be nullifying the latter part of that. If there are 5 votes on him and you need the hammer from me, just call my name and I'll be there.

Secondly: As previously mentioned, I'd rather be on Raptor for the time being. The big reason is that there is something in the ss/Raptor team that wants examination. I'm well aware ss is the only other person on the Raptor wagon, and that me posting this could drive him away.

But:

• Raptor goes VLA, and votes EFHW over ss. Could be the case if both are town. Would definitely be the case if ss is scum, EFHW is town
• Raptor lists me/silver/? as the team, because of the coalition, and then votes me. If I get lynched and flip town, hey, ss isn't so scummy any more, is he?
• Bussing? Yadda yadda. Scum ss could be in the mentality I caught Raptor red-handed and has to vote to save face? Maybe that's a stretch
• The Galz case against ss. That dang smarty pants, he knows everything!
• The ss wagon EOD push was Galz, Simon, EFHW. I've said before I'm leaning town on EFHW because I'm leaning scum on Raptor. If I'm right on this and on Simon (more assumptions! Yay!), that makes this a 3 town wagon

So in conclusion: not voting ss right now because I don't need to be. If I believe both are scum, I'll vote for the one I'm more confident in as being scum and the one who I didn't make a promise to.


Question for Swan: Why do you think Raptor is town?

79

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 20, 2018, 02:54:42 am »

gkrieg, you're trying to find Skumpy as scummy. What you need to be doing is trying to find Skumpy as Skummy. I play much differently than everybody else, lumping me under the same standards is going to lead you astray, as it already has. Any time you mention 'self-conscious', my response is 'That's how I play'. The less scummy you think I'm being, the more Skummy I am.

I'll hunt and peck your stuff:

"Lot's of get back to this shortly": I don't plan on making big cases lying in bed in the morning. I don't plan on making big cases in the time just before I leave work. And if you still think saying this stuff is scummy, how about you read the post right before your last big one?

Bored: Yeah, it was a really slow day. Nothing interesting happened. I tried to respond to you, I did type like 10 things that seemed witty to me and would seem stupid to everybody else, so I just cut it. Your entire case through D1 was "I'm pretty sure he's scum". How am I supposed to respond to that?.

Spotlight: At the time, I felt all I was doing was talking about my meta which leads town absolutely nowhere if I suck them in and get them chiming in. Finding scum involves making sure I'm not the center of attention, which still probably happens more than I'd like.

Group of 4: I'm glad you asked! And that somebody asked. More on that later.

Interesting wagon: By interesting, I mean Iguana and Simon were there. And I wanted to be with them rather than against them. So basically the same reasons you voted Simon.

I really haven't been posting all that many long posts. Not until the last couple IRL days at any rate. It's like a 1000% improvement over my posts of yore, sorry if that bores you.

80

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 20, 2018, 02:37:25 am »

Many big stuffs!

Also: why is Simon 'low-utility'?

His post at #563 was pretty defeatist, and he's missed all chances to scum-hunt, offering no fresh cases. Even if he's town, I don't know whether he's got the experience to shake off the suspicion and help deliver a win as well as other players might. What's your expectation here?

There's 2 forms of utility. Being able to catch scum and being able to convince town you're not scum. Simon's fulfilled the 2nd, apparently only for me. I understand where you're coming from given that you're his top scum read, but, assuming that is he town,  his vote has been haphazard enough and he's been willing enough to listen to my points at any rate that if you, Space, are indeed town, there's hope yet for you to convince him otherwise.


Swan's case: If ss is scum, I don't think the EOD hammer situation is the place to be looking for the evidence. Mostly because I still say it was dual-town. Even if I'm wrong and Simon is scum, then that should make ss town for you, and nullify the entire case. Not to say there isn't stuff against ss (stay tuned for more!)


Space's voting analysis: I have fallen into the trap of requiring there to be scum in subsets before, and I'd be careful about using absolutes. I've seen days involving dual-town wagons, and have made similar observations as you, only to find the entire scum team was on one wagon and the other wagon and VLAers consisted of more than half the town and no scum. Scum does not necessarily need to spread themselves thin, grouping up can be a viable strategy, since it's apparently not something you believe is likely.

Having said all that: there is some good stuff. The Simon wagon tells me next to nothing, I don't care about finding the scum in 4 people at this point. The Galz wagon is more interesting. As I've said before, if you are right in your conclusion and I am right in my white knighting, then I would know Robz is scum. But again: it's a dangerous conclusion to be made. Partly because if Robz is lynched today and is town, I'm lynched tomorrow after TA dies tonight, and then the game's over. You also look at the wagons closely without acknowledging Raptor's non-presence on them. If Raptor's scum, then there's only 2 scum between the 2 wagons, and there's a lot more possibilities, eh?

The Raptor-EFHW thing is more interesting. ss's activity on that wagon ought to make him a candidate as well, and then there's all but certainly a scum in those 3. I've said before Raptor's scum flip would make me feel town on EFHW, so there I shall stay. I guess the vice versa would be true too, but I think Raptor's more likely than EFHW to be scum.

81

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 19, 2018, 04:45:48 pm »

Internet is still out, unfortunately. But I'll go ago and say I'm a mason, and Iguana's partner.

I believe it, there's certainly been evidence for you. If you want to allude to Iguana's suspicions, that would alleviate any remaining doubt I have.

Sorry for trying to kill you D1. And D2. I guess I was the one scum was laughing at D1. All the more so if Simon flips scum.

In light of that, this makes me strongly suspect Robz now that I'm reasonably confident 4 of the 5 on his wagon for the main part of D1 were town, with him as the odd man out. I'd still rather persecute the swimmers at this point in time. That threesome of {Robz, DatSwan, Raptor} is creepy-crawling with scum, mark my words. Or maybe not.

His most recent post in the game is a question to Skumpy at #528: "Your statement confuses me, when do you believe that I was online?". I take that to mean that he's not even fully aware of what Skumpy's trying to say or where Skumpy's evidence is coming from. It's evidence that Raptor is not paying attention to the game, and as lynches go, at worst he's low-utility town whose loss isn't going to impact us except in the numbers game, but I don't think it's damning evidence that he's scum. It's not like he asked "How do you know I was online" or something...

In response to why I'm not that keen on voting him, conf!town!galz was warning people against jumping on Raptor in D1, and Raptor really does seem an easy sort of mislynch to push because he's barely doing anything. Quite early in D2, I figured that if I'm going to give a D2 pass to anyone,

I think there are more interesting lurkers who could be more dangerous if they're scum. Robz, for one. Maybe TA, if he's actually a strong vet. I also think there are more informative low-utility towns to lynch: Simon's flip would help with wagon analysis D1, and could go some way to helping people trust Skumpy if he really does flip town. So as a single lynch prospect, he's just not the most interesting at all.

Galz said that D1. I agreed. It's now D2. Barely doing anything is why he wasn't pushed the first time he was scum. I highly disagree that we get nothing out of him flipping. If he were town, that would all but force me to vote Robz (though it might be too late because I'm basically guaranteed to be the lynch tomorrow if that happens). And if he were scum, that would all but clear EFHW for me, one of YOUR top scumreads (I don't believe Raptor busses EFHW given a totally equal option between her and ss once he goes VLA. Unless both are scum). You say there's not damning evidence that he's scum; what damning evidence do you have that anybody's scum? You have now elevated up my scumread list for that post.

Also: why is Simon 'low-utility'?

82

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 19, 2018, 12:46:43 pm »

I'm open to a raptor vote. But do you agree that you were wrong on the time thing? He was online after the lynch happened, so there is no case on him based on not being there at the deadline ... right? Just trying to understand.

I was not wrong, I just wrote Tuesday when I meant to write Monday. And mistaken, wrong, lying, whatever.... throw that out if you want, if it's clouding your (general 'your') judgment.

As I said Space, ignore it if you want and I won't hold it against you. But tell me why you don't want to vote Raptor at this particular moment.

83

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 19, 2018, 06:28:40 am »

I'm open to a raptor vote. But do you agree that you were wrong on the time thing? He was online after the lynch happened, so there is no case on him based on not being there at the deadline ... right? Just trying to understand.

I was not wrong, I just wrote Tuesday when I meant to write Monday. And mistaken, wrong, lying, whatever.... throw that out if you want, if it's clouding your (general 'your') judgment.

84

Forum Games / Re: Should this subforum be visible to guests?

« on: August 19, 2018, 05:58:17 am »

So in this thread, we were discussing how to get more people into playing games here, and the opinion has been voiced to open this subforum for guests, so they see that this exists.

Therefore I want to put this to the poll. There were reasons to keep this invisible, I am sure. One is the "post your picture" thread, but that could be moved to e.g. RSP (which I think is also users only).

I will let this run for 7 days and then decide on further action.

Any update?

85

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 19, 2018, 05:49:54 am »

Simon: If you're playing me, I am going to be so disappointed in you and even more disappointed in myself.

Agree though that gkrieg/Robz is a very likely scumteam seeing how these days have been played out. Anyone else up for getting Robz today?

I did not agree with that actually, just a possibility that would be very unfortunate. The sad truth is that I'm very much in the dark. I have suspects that I've listed before (namely, Raptor, Swan, and TA), but could easily see scum in basically everybody else...except you. No, I'm not a fan of voting Robz today, I think there are better options. If you believe there was scum on the opposite wagon, which is far from a certainty if Raptor is one of the team, I'd rather go for TA.

My Raptor case could be way wrong, btw. But I'm putting this on you now, Raptor: prove to me that you want to win and that you are capable of putting together a solid argument against someone from what they've done over the course of 10 IRL days, and not based on a few posts at the end of D1 during a rushed lynch. If it's on me, so be it. But make a good case.

86

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 19, 2018, 05:43:32 am »

While we're on the subject of:

The gosh we are in a hard spot it seems from Simon is super scummy. Does not seem genuine.

I agree. Vote: Simon

Disappointed.

I'm genuinely frustrated. I got scumread yesterday based on basically nothing. I'm pseudo-new with a fresh account and the early conversation circeled around that and it got stuck together with the scumslip- accusation with Skumpy and me and since then I've been the top scum read for most people, the fact that the EOD killed off Galz instead of me didn't really help my case. I can't really lead town in any direction, I assume people would just counter-vote me if I tried to craft any type of plan.

But fine, kill me off. That mislynch will be rough as hell, but I guess you will have a better chance to see clearly when I'm gone.

In fact. Back to basics for me too. vote for the top scumread and it's still: vote: SpaceA

which by the way is exactly how I'm feeling right now, especially the bold, and even the desire to keep wagon hopping even though I know it just raises suspicion.


Let's revisit the Raptor case. People seem to be in the mindset of 'what a crappy case based on 'Who's Online', that can't be right'.

If Raptor was town, he could make that very clear and obvious if he wanted to. I've seen him do it before, he is more than capable of doing it again. One possibility is that he is scum and finds it difficult to make a fake case. A second, and one that I know is scummy of me to say (self-conscious, oooh!), but I have to put it out there as I refrained from saying it D1, is that his one special performance was a direct result of him being a PR, and a feeling of responsibility to contribute. As town, I don't actively try to figure out who the PR's are. But it's tough of me to not notice things like Raptor's play. Given that scum already has a 30% chance of knocking out either the Mason or the Roleblocker without any other information AND that they might lynch a town today AND that they've probably already figured out who both are, there is some safety in targeting somebody who is less likely to be a PR. Iguana voted for Raptor as well D1, which further suggests to me he's not the mason. In addition, were he to flip scum, that would make me very reluctant to want to vote EFHW for the rest of the game because of him throwing his vote there before he went VLA, and so would all but clear one of the more unreadable, controversial players this game.

His post out of his 15 thus far, including the /in, involving the most work and scumreading was this:

Vote: skumpy because of the timing of his votes as well as over all tone in the game (nothing new right?)

Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?

why wouldn't you just do it yourself?

Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...

convenient that with less then a minute you were ready to switch off the wagon.
 

Responding to Swan's stuff:

'XXR wasn't moving' - I still want to know why that's the case when he did check in that day. That's still a very important point.

I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.

which is just lazy in addition to being wrong. Raptor, if you are town, I don't want to sound like a jerk with this, but I probably will, and I apologize: I don't trust you to make good decisions for the remainder of the game, and I see you as more of a liability than an asset, if that is the absolute best of your scumreading efforts. You can be very, very good at this game as town, both in terms of accuracy and in gaining towncred for yourself. But you're not this game, and I don't know why. If I had to guess, it's that we are indeed once again pitted against each other which disappoints me greatly.


Expected value aside, why vote Raptor? Because he has done nothing townie this game. The only case for him was Swan saying D1 "it's a lazy vote on Raptor". True enough at the time, and I agreed. But we're halfway into D2. He's had 48 hours, not counting Saturday, to go back and reflect and put together a case. A case on me based on a few scummy posts in response to not voting a wagon that may or may not be town (why not vote Simon if that's what you believe?) is what resulted. I feel like Awaclus, but I now kinda get it when he says: Give me a good reason I should not vote Raptor right now, and @everyone, tell me what you have going for him?

PPE

87

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 19, 2018, 05:12:43 am »

How would it be checkable?

The name shows on the homepage for 15 minutes. And if you miss that, you click the profile. Since people get mad me at when I talk about it, please stop asking me questions about it so that I don't have to talk about it.

If you see me log on It’s an error - I’m still VLA today

OK, last time, I swear: your profile's 'Last Active' corroborates your story, you do in fact have an air-tight alibi for Saturday, Swan. Except that it's always the person with the best alibi who does the murder.

Do other people not think that skumpy’s EOD post was super scummy?  It makes me think that he and Simon are partners.

Also why don’t we have a mason claim???

So how do you feel then that Simon also agrees the mason should claim?


Simon: If you're playing me, I am going to be so disappointed in you and even more disappointed in myself. You're not brand new, so I have to be careful about that and I do have to remind myself that you have some knowledge of how to talk as scum. If you are scum, I give my full apologies to town and full kudos to scum for a game well played where you could either bus without suspicion or let literally the entire town vote him without needing to step in to interfere. If I mess up, then foof, I am disappointed to have let my moronic intellect lead you astray.

Having said that: I haven't yet been wrong on a 'white knight' read, as ss likes to say and as I will now be using that term from now on, so by the powers invested in me by LaLight and my positive emotion flavor (I consider calm quite positive, btw), I hereby dub thee Sir Jester. You people are veterans at this game. You have combined to play dozens upon dozens of games and to spend centuries worth of reading and posting; why are you cherrypicking statements (on D2 at that) like:

The gosh we are in a hard spot it seems from Simon is super scummy. Does not seem genuine.

I agree. Vote: Simon

when he probably KNOWS that this kind of stuff is so typical of new scum, and so he wouldn't post it (and so he would, and so WIFOM, etc, but it's not a scummy thing to say). This Skumpy-Simon theory was farfetched to begin with, and it's gotten worse if anything. I don't go out my way and do everything I can to save partners. That would be very obvious of me, wouldn't it? I say: if they've messed up, let 'em die! I don't want to lose this game, and I'm doing everything in my power to prevent that from happening. Am I necessarily right? No, maybe not even about Simon. But you people need to do more to help than ignore every point we try to make and instead FOS the 2 most active people in this game. Iguana, if you can read this from the dead, I am gravely disappointed in you because you played too damn well D1 and I really want my lizard here right now (not a breadcrumb).

If either and/or both of you are scum @gkrieg/Robz, it's shameful that we have delivered ourselves into your hands so easily without you having to lift a finger when no votes are coming your way. And if you are town, you should go have a nap or eat some almonds or something, and come back with a fresh mindset and solve this mystery.

88

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 17, 2018, 08:07:06 pm »

Lynching off of some "Who's Online" confusion has never ever ever ever ever been good. In fact, I'm pretty sure I've most often argued for lynching like this when I am myself scum, so big FOS at Skumpy.

Well, yes. Though you also have to remember that his big defense of the whole "scumslip" discussion was that he'd been stalking "Who's Online" before the game even started, and that's how he knew that Simon had learned the ropes well.. so if he can make it look like stalking "Who's Online" is a big part of his play strategy, then that looks more natural retrospectively.

It's not a part of my strategy; it's something I notice. There've been plenty of times I see people online and reading without posting; I don't care and I'm not going to call out by name (with the one exception) because it's not super informative and it's something I'm often guilty of.

I'm annoyed by the who's online thing. Raptor and DatSwan both say raptor didn't have access. So is Skumpy making this up?

As I said before: it'd be stupid of me to make something up when it's something that's very easily checkable by everyone else.

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Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 17, 2018, 12:52:33 pm »

Skumpy said he saw raptor online on Tues afternoon, but eod was on Monday.

Yeah, that's what I noticed too, hence the unvote.

It's still a weird thing to say. On Tues he would have known the day had ended.

Skumpy may just be mis-remembering what day of the week the deadline was on, now that he's referring back to it. I'm assuming he meant to say that he was stalking Who's Online on the Monday, unless he comes along to say differently. Either way, I don't think it's as informative as he thinks it is.

This. The quote I gave is from that Monday.

I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.

Raptor: I saw your name that Tuesday afternoon. 'Who's Online' doesn't lie.

It lies in two ways:

1. People can opt never to be listed. I believe plenty of current Mafia players turn off the listing specifically so they can't be tracked like that.

2. I've read somewhere that leaving an f.ds tab open in a browser (even a phone browser) has been shown to make a pearson appear as present even if they're not actively reloading the page or interacting with it. I was more sceptical of that, but TBH, it makes the game more fun to believe it, and less about who can dedicate the longest time to stalking "Who's Online".

1. There are indeed false negatives. So far, I haven't seen a false positive.

2. Surely something would still have to happen to cause it to trigger? And while I agree that it's not the fun thing to do, given that I did notice it, I can't put it out of my mind and discard it completely.

I was in the California back country fighting bears at the time your lynched galz.

That does sound pretty exhilarating, hope it was fun. Also, I see what you're doing there. Clever.

90

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 17, 2018, 05:16:03 am »

Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?

Why didn't you just do it?

Because I'm not a hammerer when I don't need to be. And I didn't need to be yet because you were there.

OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?

Because even though I was pretty sure both were town, I was more sold on Simon than Galz. And when you do have a slight scumread on someone, as I had prior to that realization, you want to see who's going to flip to make the lynch happen. So I tried to stick, and almost did break except ss broke first.

Reasons I had at the time for Simon being town included: his efforts to get on the ss wagon, which seems more likely to come from town trying to find scum than scum trying to stay alive, and the wagon as a whole, since I had more faith there was town on Galz's wagon than Simon's. Mostly because of Iguana, but there would have likely been 2 scum in {Simon, Robz, TA}, which didn't seem like the best possibility.

Again: If Simon is town, I don't think there's much to be learned from the end of day non-hammers.



PPE: Space

If we knew simon was town then there would still be things to learn from the nonhammerers.   Since we don't know, why dismiss the question?

Because the nonhammerers present were me and Iguana. You know one's town, you'll find out the other is town.

The amount of evidence in favor of Simon is so overwhelming, I find it strange ss still wants to vote there. If he is scum, he needs two partners. EFHW/Simon isn't a thing. Simon/ss isn't a thing. Skumpy/Simon isn't a thing. That's already a big reduction in the number of people who he could be partnered with. And that's just me being cursory, I could've probably done better. Iguana made a better case for him that I can.

I think that you are miss remembering me there. I was VLA for through N1.

Raptor: I saw your name that Tuesday afternoon. 'Who's Online' doesn't lie.

FOS to everyone not actively moving us to a lynch. There’s a lot of people who still have their votes in useless places 2.5 hours to deadline, and some of these people have come in and posted and not moved their votes.

This. Also going to extend it to Raptor for showing up and not moving his vote.

Note the timestamp. This is only a few hours before the lynch takes place. Why would I lie about something and give the other 10 people online at the time the chance to doublecheck my work and find out about my deception? So if you're going to continue to maintain that you did not open a browser and look at the forums during this period, I have no choice but to either report a bug to the forum moderator or vote you now. So for that, for the fact that your game is a far cry from NM11, and for cherrypicking the easiest case possible against me (something I saw you do as scum 1 year ago - do you know better now, I don't know):

Vote: Raptor

After that TA and Swan are my next candidates.

91

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 16, 2018, 01:43:09 pm »

and skumpy, I think you claimed that you deliberately waited until less than a minute was left. The lesson to draw here is DON'T DO THAT. There are so many things that could go wrong. Maybe someone misspells a name. Maybe someone forgets the colon or the whitespace. No plan should ever include waiting until less than a minute.

I didn't start typing until there was less than a minute left, a minute left was when I started spamming 'preview'. The worst thing that can happen is exactly what happened; namely, you flipped. But you raise good points all the same; I hereby promise that every future time I pull this stunt, it shall happen with two minutes left.

Typo: I didn't starting typing WHEN there was less than a minute left, yadda yadda yadda.

92

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 16, 2018, 01:40:24 pm »

Okay, let's put this another way: given that we know we have II's partner out there able to come forward and be a 100% guaranteed IC or 1v1, and who has at this point no town-useful role save perhaps some stored-up Iguana-wisdom, what is the point in outing a useful town PR who wouldn't necessarily be a unique IC?\

Is there a rule against quoting non-mod stuff from a QT? Or at least paraphrasing? If not, couldn't the mason just reference posts from the Iguana discussion, which is probably tough enough to CC? The point of outing a PR would be to make sure that we either get one of these IC's alive to D3 or get a guaranteed scum lynch if we mislynch, which is obviously the less desired outcome.

Definitely a rule against quoting, I do not want to have this discussion again.  If scum want to fakeclaim mason, having to come up with stuff that sounds like iguana is way too hard, so is prohibited.

No paraphrasing allowed either?

93

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 16, 2018, 01:38:50 pm »

and skumpy, I think you claimed that you deliberately waited until less than a minute was left. The lesson to draw here is DON'T DO THAT. There are so many things that could go wrong. Maybe someone misspells a name. Maybe someone forgets the colon or the whitespace. No plan should ever include waiting until less than a minute.

I didn't start typing until there was less than a minute left, a minute left was when I started spamming 'preview'. The worst thing that can happen is exactly what happened; namely, you flipped. But you raise good points all the same; I hereby promise that every future time I pull this stunt, it shall happen with two minutes left.

94

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 16, 2018, 01:36:04 pm »

Okay, let's put this another way: given that we know we have II's partner out there able to come forward and be a 100% guaranteed IC or 1v1, and who has at this point no town-useful role save perhaps some stored-up Iguana-wisdom, what is the point in outing a useful town PR who wouldn't necessarily be a unique IC?\

Is there a rule against quoting non-mod stuff from a QT? Or at least paraphrasing? If not, couldn't the mason just reference posts from the Iguana discussion, which is probably tough enough to CC? The point of outing a PR would be to make sure that we either get one of these IC's alive to D3 or get a guaranteed scum lynch if we mislynch, which is obviously the less desired outcome.

In a scenario where we have two town RBs, do we end up lynching one or both of them because you've primed us to think about 1-v-1s?

Yes, because there's such a low percentage of that. If this exact scenario was to appear dozens of times, and we lose the game once as a direct result of thinking there was only 1 town RB, I'm fine with that. Just because something could be the case doesn't mean we should treat it as a realistic possibility.

In a scenario with only one RB, is it a good idea to come forward, out a good town PR, and not necessarily be believed as IC? Or is it better to stay quiet at the moment and risk being disbelieved later because someone turned up the pressure too much too early?

'Good town PR' is very relative. I don't expect to see any useful RB's happening, since there's probably a full strongman plus a scum RBer crawling around. 'Not necessarily believed': Either they get CC'd or they don't.

 It could very well be that it's more useful later. But if that's the case, then the mason probably shouldn't claim either. Here's the other thing you have to remember: not claiming doesn't guarantee both, or even just one, make it to D3 alive. If the lead wagon ends up being on a PR and they have to claim to save themselves, then that's a waste. And scum probably has some ideas on who they are as well, and can push that lynch and/or aim the NK.  Something to salvage while we stlil can? I don't know!

95

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 16, 2018, 01:19:47 pm »

Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?

Why didn't you just do it?

Because I'm not a hammerer when I don't need to be. And I didn't need to be yet because you were there.

OTOH, everyone present seemed pretty worried about no lynch. They just wanted other people to do the switching required. So, if you are town, what made your scumreads so strong? I'm interested to hear from each person who could have hammered simon or Galz. How did you decide not to?

Because even though I was pretty sure both were town, I was more sold on Simon than Galz. And when you do have a slight scumread on someone, as I had prior to that realization, you want to see who's going to flip to make the lynch happen. So I tried to stick, and almost did break except ss broke first.

Reasons I had at the time for Simon being town included: his efforts to get on the ss wagon, which seems more likely to come from town trying to find scum than scum trying to stay alive, and the wagon as a whole, since I had more faith there was town on Galz's wagon than Simon's. Mostly because of Iguana, but there would have likely been 2 scum in {Simon, Robz, TA}, which didn't seem like the best possibility.

Again: If Simon is town, I don't think there's much to be learned from the end of day non-hammers.



PPE: Space

96

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 16, 2018, 12:59:14 pm »

I think the RB should absolutely not claim at this point.

If that's the case, is it worth considering having the RB claim as well?

I think you might have missed the following:

Note that while we know for sure that there's a full RB in the game, there's actually a 0.7% chance of having two of them, so we can't necessarily IC anyone that way.

... and that's a 0.7% prior probability, so anyone who's convinced we have strong evidence of more town roles than average existing in this game should think that that number will be rather higher in the current posterior distribution.

There are reasons for an RB to not claim, but this is not one of the more crucial reasons. I'm not too worried about a <1/50 chance, or however much it ends up being.

Not sure about that.

Um.. how much do you know about Bayesian stuff? The numbers I've posted are from the prior distribution, marginalised over the still-available roles.

Your lack of certainty comes from wanting to turn it into a posterior distribution by inferring something about the number of roles in the game based on the fact that both of the first two flips were town PRs. Yes, that posterior distribution will be an updated version of the prior, but that's not what I'm claiming to have provided.

I really don't think the roles we've seen so far are selected at random from the pool of townies, because in II's case, he was almost certainly killed for being active, engaged and widely town-read, and he may well not have played that way had he actually been a VT or a scum. That uncertainty is why I'm not currently trying to put weights on the likelihood of being in a set-up of 4, 5, 6 or 7 players specifically to get some kind of posterior. Well, that and the fact that by going that far, I may also want to fold in info about people's metas and current playing styles, and then it gets too subjective to be worth sharing in a quantitative sense. Also, my lunch break should be over by now :-P

OK, we're on the same page then. Minus the PR hunting because it always seems like more of a shot in the dark than anything else to me, but it's no matter.

97

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 16, 2018, 04:51:27 am »

I should do a reread of D1. Maybe right now's a good time for that.

This didn't happen. Sorry.

If that's the case, is it worth considering having the RB claim as well? Either 2 IC's or we get some 1 v 1's. It would be devastating if we guess wrong on them, could be fantastic if we guess right since either an IC's alive D3 or we have another 1 v 1. I don't know what good a roleblocker does at this point, we're only 1 non-T roll away from a perpetual strongman. There's a lot of things that have to happen right for the roleblock to be effective and buy us an extra day, namely finding the strongman, getting a correct roleblock, and the scum roleblocker not getting in the way of town roleblocker, if that's a thing. That would be amazing if all those things happened; I'm not banking on it. The risky approach is to go with that, the safe approach is to simplify into the endgame. If there are 2 1v1's for the Mason and the RB, and we guess right on 1 but not the other initially, we get 2 correct lynches out of 3 and lose 3 town at night, bringing us down to a 3 v 1, which gives us a reasonable shot. Plus potentially more unclaimed PRs.

So yeah; I guess I'm in favor then of narrowing the lynch pool? I'll wait for everyone else, before I claim (no, my talking is not necessarily indicative of VT), but I'll go on the record with an RB should claim, Mason should claim

Actually, I'm tabling that opinion in the last paragraph for now. I didn't think it through well enough.

98

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 16, 2018, 03:48:20 am »

Responding to Swan's stuff:

'XXR wasn't moving' - I still want to know why that's the case when he did check in that day. That's still a very important point.

'Only one who could hammer Simon was Skumpster' - Incorrect, because II could, for whatever that's worth.

To be clear about my actions after Iguana flipped: I gave EFHW the chance to go back to her preferred wagon before I made the hammer myself, which I planned to do at :59. Sixty seconds is plenty of time when I have the vote written and I'm hitting preview, though I suppose nobody was aware I was doing that at the time. I'm not going to hold EFHW's non-vote against her as a partner sign with Simon, thats too obvious, and makes little sense when she picked him over Galz at 5-5.

The thing is, Swan: None of that is relevant if Simon is town. Townies want to try to stick to their intended targets and avoid swerving as long as possible until they give in to the 'Chicken Game' and flip. If scum doesn't care who gets lynched, they can easily replicate that behavior. So it's all null. And if Simon is scum, why do you not want to lynch off-wagon? Or on Simon himself? ss certainly stayed on the Simon wagon for a while. Doesn't make him town, especially if Simon is, but it's not a great case against him yet.

there are no upper cases in my name plx. Let alone 2. it looks so horrible.

I've done the same, Swan, don't feel too bad.

99

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 16, 2018, 03:24:43 am »

What is a 'Mason shot'? You know what a mason is....

100

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 16, 2018, 03:21:04 am »

A bunch of people haven't posted yet. Silver, raptor, simon, DatSwan, TA.

I don't agree with skumpy's reasoning about looking for scum among people townreading  iguana. It's an interesting idea, but not enough. Was there more on TA motivating your vote?

And also I'd imagine there's scum pushing Galz. Not Iguana, not me, I still feel there's evidence pointing away from Simon (I definitely don't feel like scum!Simon wants to deflect from the Galz wagon; could be wrong). So unless no scum was on the main push for Galz, which I suppose is also a possibility, that leaves Robz and TA for me. But I shouldn't be hasty, especially after my D1 performance. There's a lot of day left, and lot of discussion to happen, and I should do a reread of D1. Maybe right now's a good time for that.

 Unvote

I'd rather have an IC today.

If that's the case, is it worth considering having the RB claim as well? Either 2 IC's or we get some 1 v 1's. It would be devastating if we guess wrong on them, could be fantastic if we guess right since either an IC's alive D3 or we have another 1 v 1. I don't know what good a roleblocker does at this point, we're only 1 non-T roll away from a perpetual strongman. There's a lot of things that have to happen right for the roleblock to be effective and buy us an extra day, namely finding the strongman, getting a correct roleblock, and the scum roleblocker not getting in the way of town roleblocker, if that's a thing. That would be amazing if all those things happened; I'm not banking on it. The risky approach is to go with that, the safe approach is to simplify into the endgame. If there are 2 1v1's for the Mason and the RB, and we guess right on 1 but not the other initially, we get 2 correct lynches out of 3 and lose 3 town at night, bringing us down to a 3 v 1, which gives us a reasonable shot. Plus potentially more unclaimed PRs.

So yeah; I guess I'm in favor then of narrowing the lynch pool? I'll wait for everyone else, before I claim (no, my talking is not necessarily indicative of VT), but I'll go on the record with an RB should claim, Mason should claim

Also, Lalight, is there an RB priority order?

PPE: Lots of Swan