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101

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 15, 2018, 08:30:05 pm »

I don't think it works quite that nicely here, though it doesn't affect final probabilities that significantly. The 'given that the first role flipped was X and given that the second role flipped was Y' changes things and makes more non-T's more likely.

I think what you're saying is that given the new information that we've seen two PRs in two flips, you think we have evidence that there is a high number of PRs in the game. That would certainly be something to consider if the flips we saw were independent of the roles, but that's definitely not the case.It's possible we've just lost PRs early because they had PR-tells that someone on the scumteam read.

It's still correct that the likelihoods I've quoted are the prior probabilities of each roll appearing at least once in the setup LL has rolled for us.

Not sure about that.

It's a little Monty Hall-esque in the sense that if there's a bunch of PR's hiding behind doors, you're more likely to stumble upon them when you start opening doors than if there were fewer. If there are indeed only the 4 known PR's, then it's harder to find them first because there are fewer options to be right, as opposed to 5 or 6. And I do believe in independence, certainly for Galz, and close enough for Iguana. In fact, if anything, super-independent for Galz because not claiming makes me lean more towards VT than PR.

Without much simulation experience admittedly, I'd imagine it would be a bit more accurate to assign specific players roles after the dice rolls, and after seeing flips, narrow down the possibilities to those specifically involving 'Player A was X' and 'Player B was Y'. But that does seem very inefficient and cumbersome, and again, it doesn't changes the probabilities a lot.

102

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 15, 2018, 07:18:22 pm »

How do you get these numbers, if I may ask?

I wrote some code the first time I played this setup that produced a list of possible setups and their relative likelihoods. All that code saved was a list of lists of roles, and a vector of probabilities to go with them, which is what I used to get these, just by summing over probabilities of sets that contain all the known roles, and then each other role in turn.

If you're asking how I got the original vector, the script for that pretty much brute forces all possible letter combinations with their respective likelihoods, then gathers things together more tidily so that different rolls that would result in the same game setup are grouped together. What the code doesn't do is record all possible letter roll combinations that got there... I remember adding that into the version I modified for another 9+ setup, and it being a bit of a pain, so I resisted the urge to retrofit it to this one!

I don't think it works quite that nicely here, though it doesn't affect final probabilities that significantly. The 'given that the first role flipped was X and given that the second role flipped was Y' changes things and makes more non-T's more likely.

Should the other Mason claim? Possibly. A Day 2 IC is decent.

And D3 is better, until it gets CC'd. I honestly don't know, just playing devil's advocate.

103

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 15, 2018, 06:31:05 pm »

Here's my breakdown likelihoods of each role independently being in the game:

frb: 1.000000
prb: 1.000000
mas0: 0.985838
pcop: 0.305260
pvig: 0.277856
pdoc: 0.176528
fdoc: 0.168456
fvig: 0.039087
UB: 0.014162
mas: 0.014162
fcop: 0.011046

The "p" is for partial, i.e. one-shot, and the "f" for full. The "mas0" is the mason case where there was a single "M" roll leading to conversion from UB to Mason, and the plain "mas" is the kind that comes from at least three M rolls.

This is based on an evaluation of the setup that I did ages ago. I'm confused about pdoc looking more likely that fdoc, though.. I need to check that out, given that pdoc should only happen in games with fdoc already present. But I'm assuming these numbers are broadly right at least.

How do you get these numbers, if I may ask?

104

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 15, 2018, 06:09:38 pm »

Also, for those who didn't read back after Galz's flip to see what the setup now sits at:

1-shot Roleblocker -> at least 2 B's = definitely exists a town roleblocker.
Iguana = Mason -> at least 1 M

So scum has at most 3 T's.

105

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 15, 2018, 05:49:20 pm »

Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...

This is incredibly scummy.

vote: Skumpy

Note that I took 6 minutes to respond to 2 things just now. I don't ever post rushed things, I always proofread like 3 times and still let typos bleed through. So there's a very good reason why my posts look scummy close to deadline when I have to rush them. I already play with admittedly one of the scummiest tones of anyone in the game, I sometimes have had to make efforts as town to not look scummy.

Ok, floor is everybody else's.

106

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 2)

« on: August 15, 2018, 05:45:33 pm »

Iguana's partner should claim in their first post.

I've never played with masons, i could believe in it.

Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...

This is incredibly scummy.

vote: Skumpy

Yeah, yeah, I know. Gotta type something in before the day ends, that's what comes to mind. I'm not really inclined to talk about it, but:
1) Why EFHW didn't vote in the 90 seconds I gave her, I don't know.
2) If I don't vote in the last minute, I look really scummy. So of course I'm going to vote after those 90 seconds.

That post was honest, I had the vote ready, hit preview, well never mind then. The panic was unnecessary.

I'm expecting the wagon on me pretty quick here, regardless. It's still as wrong as ever, nothing's changed. Ask me anything you want, all you're getting is straight up truthbombs.

107

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 15, 2018, 05:39:10 pm »

Iguana's dead. Shocker. I'd imagine the other mason claims, but I could be persuaded otherwise.

Simon's obviously unknown, but I'm still agreeing with Iguana posthumously, it's very pointed to a dual-town wagon. And if it's not, there's not many possibilities for the scum that's not bussing (though Raptor's activity the day of the lynch complicates matters).

@Skumpy What do my posts have to do with your voting TA?

I enjoy saying cryptic remarks, and explaining later.


Here's where I'm at right now.

I find Iguana very townie at this point. I haven't played with him much before, but he's active, and that counts for something. More than something. And furthermore, I like his posts, and I like the way he's playing. There's a lot he has going for him.

Now there's 2 possibilities.

1. I'm way, way wrong, and Iguana is in fact scum. I don't believe it now. But if it's true, this game will not go very smoothly.

2. I'm right, and Iguana is town. Iguana has posted so much at this point that people surely have to be townreading the lizard, right? No! Because by my count, only 3 have. And when you're scum, you want to be posting correct townreads D1 to gain credibility, and preferably on the most townie people. If Iguana is town, 3 other people here know this. I have to think that one is going to take notice of his talkative play and give him town status, or at least townie. Which doesn't leave many possibilities.

Both of those things together, it's seems to me highly likely there's a scum in {Iguana, ss, TA, Skumpy}. There's already an 86% chance of that, but whatever. And of that group, there's one I can't vote for, there's one I won't vote for, and there's one I'd be happy to vote for but would rather stick around longer because I pity it. So therefore, TA it is.

So that's me. Wrong? Possibly. Logical? I'd like to think so.

This + scum probably wants somebody on the Galz wagon, I have to do a Vote: TA.

PPE: gkrieg. Yay.

108

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 06:59:58 pm »

Holy crap, what just happened? I had the a vote simon ready too...

109

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 06:57:58 pm »

Sorry Simon. Me and Iguana tried. EFHW, you want to do it so I don't get my hands dirty?

110

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 06:57:29 pm »

They're both town : (

If so, then what's wrong with leaving the strong and experienced player in the game to give town a better chance?

Because maybe not.

as town you want to do it because you honestly believe in it. as scum ther'es no reaosn.

It can be a push for towniness on the line. Clearly you believe it. It's all WIFOM anyhow, let's be honest.

111

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 06:56:09 pm »

They're both town : (

Yup. Still trust the wagon on Galz more than the one on Simon.

112

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 06:55:41 pm »

Isn't coming out with a case on someone 2 hours before the deadline a really odd thing for scum to do?

No. You were never getting lynched.

113

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 06:51:46 pm »

Do we have anyone who is actually ready to hammer? We only have 10 minutes left.

It would have to be II, Robz, Skumpy, or someone... TA I think?

TA left.
Skumpy hasn't been here
Robz hasn't been here


So pretty much it is if II is gonna do it.

I'm here sadly. Though I'm agreeing with Iguana more and more.

114

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 06:44:00 pm »

Still here, don't know when my meeting is supposed to start.

In the end, I think simon is probably town :/

He's voted everyone except for me and gkrieg. So if he's town, he's guaranteed to have voted at least two scum, and likely the whole team if gkrieg isn't scum. And he did make every single one of those votes like he meant it.

I'm kinda surprised to be defending him right now, but I actually think it's stupid to be lynching an active player with a decent change of just being a ramble/scramble newb!town.

Well put.

115

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 06:26:00 pm »

I don't believe Galz not voting Simon is a sign of scum scrambling to not bus, that's way too extreme, and furthermore, we didn't get 2 wagons right. That's preposterous. This attempt to divert the wagon with an hour to spare really doesn't strike me much one way or the other. ss isn't going to go through, I think his vote's ending up on Simon eventually. I think scum!Galz knows that, I think town!Galz suspects that.

The case on ss isn't awful, scum usually likes to look reasonable without looking committal. It's arbitrary, but so is everything D1. Honest answer, I don't really have enough time to digest it all, though there are some things I've already indicated that stand out.

I'll be gone very soon, and I don't think I've heard enough to get me to change my vote. Also, I'm not voting ss in the first place, as I said long ago. If you can put together 8 votes, more power to you. It wouldn't be the worst lynch, not by a mile. But I don't see it happening.

116

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 05:54:00 pm »

It matters because there is no "coalition" in the game that should keep one player from voting for another if the first honestly believes that the second SCUMslipped - that is, gave something away that was evidence of being scum - which is what SS ended on with "slightly scummy for the scumslip" - it's either a thing, or it isn't - he's saying that, yes, in fact, the scumslip IS a thing - but he's using your "coalition" to avoid voting for you over it - he's pushing a scum narrative on you without taking responsibility, something he's done a lot of.

Except my scumslip would've implicated Simon as well. So if ss truly thought it was a scumslip, he would say something like "Scumslip there, but since I can't vote Skumpy, I'll vote Simon". This is exactly what I did in the post where I voted TA, except it was on something more arbitrary than a scumslip.

117

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 05:39:23 pm »

gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not.

I don't know why you think I'm going to vote for Simon just because you aren't going to vote for him.

vote: Simon

So, uhm, why are you voting me?

Between you and galz, your wagon is townier.

...am I crazy?



Also, gone 30 minutes before deadline. 99% won't be back in time.

I mean, yeah, I saw that; it's a little funny. But saying someone is going to do something for X reason before they have themselves decided what they are going to do is arrogant in a not-so-nice way so I think his response was totally justified.

Was I that arrogant? I'm sorry if I was, but I was playing out the scenario I expected, and I didn't expect to see him voting where I was.

On Galz's post on ss not voting for me: It's called a coalition. I'm glad it's done well for me. Not sure why the scumslip discussion makes you focused on why ss isn't voting for me, as opposed to not voting for Simon.

Despite all that, where you pull out like 15 pieces of evidence, I'm still lost as to why you continue to ignore the most interesting post of all:

you know what, you're right! I didn't think this far.

Ok, skumpy, how about we don't vote for each other until day 3?

118

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 05:23:01 pm »

That's five votes for Galz, four for Simon?

Think so. 5-5 if you count Galz, who's not here. PPE: Never mind. Let's read now!

Looks like EFHW's making the call.

119

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 05:22:00 pm »

gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not.

I don't know why you think I'm going to vote for Simon just because you aren't going to vote for him.

vote: Simon

So, uhm, why are you voting me?

Between you and galz, your wagon is townier.

...am I crazy?



Also, gone 30 minutes before deadline. 99% won't be back in time.

120

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 04:37:06 pm »

Skumpy’s rant is over the top but reads genuine town to me.

Probably. Almost certainly. But I was getting sick that our argument was sounding like a broken record.

Regardless, I don’t think scum skumpy would buddy Simon this hard if Simon was either town. So I don’t want to lynch skumpy while Simon is alive, I am definitely leaning town on skumpy.

It's a townread that could waver if he survives today. I'd probably be fighting more vigorously if it was Iguana. I don't think buddying and challenging lynches is particularly alignment indicative for me, though I do think it points away from our Axis, *cough* Space *cough*.

Agree, skumpy's rant is fairly townie. Weird that gkrieg doesn't see that.

Funny, I can actually see my rant as kind of scummy. I'll take the townread though.

FOS to everyone not actively moving us to a lynch. There’s a lot of people who still have their votes in useless places 2.5 hours to deadline, and some of these people have come in and posted and not moved their votes.

This. Also going to extend it to Raptor for showing up and not moving his vote.

I should probably accept at this point that I've never been able to stick to a scum D1 and help get them lynched before, so apologize in advance if I wind up having helped not at all.

121

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 04:02:55 pm »

Galz is an okey lynch. Not the best, but it's worth a shot. Vote: Galzria

Skumpys reaction to gkriegs scumread is... weird. Your olay today has been outlandish and it's not surprising at all someone regards it as very scummy. I don't agree with gkrieg, but can't say my townread on you is the strongest one ever.

Hope to be here at deadline but might not make it.

Scumreading isn't what bothers me. It's the tunnel, which lends itself to complete unhelpfulness.

So Galz is going to vote Simon. gkrieg's going to vote Simon because I'm not. Even if EFHW votes Galz, it's still 6-5, and there's basically nobody on the Simon wagon that I think could swing.

To respond to gkrieg: As I once said, I don't like Galz ignoring the coalition and all the responses. I feel like it got the game out of RVS pretty quickly, and those are the kinds of situations that Galz loves to look at to figure out who responded scummily. It feels like a cop-out on his part to say I'm skummy and leave it at that.

It remains to be seen, of course, but I'm not sure this is a dual-town wagon. The Galz wagon is interesting, and the people on it are interesting.

Not sure of deadline status. Around for most of the next few hours, but probably a biggish break somewhere. Maybe during deadline, maybe before.

122

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 02:52:02 pm »

I mainly don't want to lynch Space, TA, or silver right now.  Skumpy is still by far my first choice.  I feel so sure he is scum that i honestly haven't even looked elsewhere.

I'll look at galz and EFHW in a bit.

I'd be OK with voting Galz or TA. Therefore, I'll save you the trouble of having to do a read and help you be more productive today by suggesting you go vote Simon, the only other person who could get lynched.

I'm going to try to be as quick and blunt as possible before I get distracted and embark upon another rant; you're wrong, your read is garbage, and regardless of the quality of the read anyhow, it's awful and embarrassing to tunnel on D1 without even entertaining the thought of anybody else or giving yourself a slight pause to think about the possibility that you could be wrong. I can understand if you think I'm Skum; that's fine, I've heard it before, and it's not even totally absurd. But Christ man; check your ego, and think for a second before you you blow a game (or at least a lynch) based on a single read....on D1. If you aren't scum, I can safely say your reads have been the worst of any town because the only person you have scumread, is in fact, town, and that scum is laughing because one of the players here with the best reputation has been led so far astray.

That probably went too far, and I apologize, but at least express a little self-doubt. There's a reason this game is not easy.

I'm sorry, but this just makes me want to lynch you more.  This is scummy OMGUS.  It doesn't try to discredit me, the person making the argument (I admit that I haven't given that many reasons), instead of the argument itself.  Saying that it is awful and embarrassing to tunnel hard D1 is absurd.  It's certainly not about my ego.  I'm consistently wrong about tunnels (especially D1 on faust), and people are consistently wrong about me when I'm tunnelled D1 (which also happens enough).

Want to explain why you think Simon should be lynched over TA and galz?

The sad part of the omgus is I’m leaning town on you. 
I’m saying since I dont want to vote Simon, you should because obviously I’m skum protecting a partner.

I’ve said reasons before for reads, can’t now since I’m phoneposting at lunch.

123

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 02:33:40 pm »

I mainly don't want to lynch Space, TA, or silver right now.  Skumpy is still by far my first choice.  I feel so sure he is scum that i honestly haven't even looked elsewhere.

I'll look at galz and EFHW in a bit.

I'd be OK with voting Galz or TA. Therefore, I'll save you the trouble of having to do a read and help you be more productive today by suggesting you go vote Simon, the only other person who could get lynched.

I'm going to try to be as quick and blunt as possible before I get distracted and embark upon another rant; you're wrong, your read is garbage, and regardless of the quality of the read anyhow, it's awful and embarrassing to tunnel on D1 without even entertaining the thought of anybody else or giving yourself a slight pause to think about the possibility that you could be wrong. I can understand if you think I'm Skum; that's fine, I've heard it before, and it's not even totally absurd. But Christ man; check your ego, and think for a second before you you blow a game (or at least a lynch) based on a single read....on D1. If you aren't scum, I can safely say your reads have been the worst of any town because the only person you have scumread, is in fact, town, and that scum is laughing because one of the players here with the best reputation has been led so far astray.

That probably went too far, and I apologize, but at least express a little self-doubt. There's a reason this game is not easy.

124

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 01:24:54 pm »

Alright, I'll bite.

Vote: Galz

125

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M117: Emotions Mafia (Day 1)

« on: August 13, 2018, 01:01:07 pm »

Space is voting because of a theory that I have presented as clearly as I possibly could as complete and utter hogwash and poppycock.

Space is voting because Simon seems like their top candidate for scum of the people they feel happy with pushing for a D1 lynch.

Do you think Simon is a bad lynch because you think he's townie, or just because you don't like my one comment?

The former

The scumslip may not have been anything but Simon and Skumpy are still acting like newbie scumpartners. Biggest evidence against it I guess is that Skumpy has won as scum before so I don't expect such obvious partnery play from him

I'm generally a busser, not a buddyer. In fact, if I correctly get a scum lynched today, that would be the most damning evidence against me. And I'd rather be buddies with you, but you're having none of it.

Robz, is there a reason you didn't want to vote Galz when that wagon was at 3?