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16426

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY

« on: May 31, 2012, 05:57:32 pm »

Just a reminder (although it was posted 1 page back) everyone that the deadline is this Sunday.  I don't know about the rest of you - but weekend time for me is typically family time and less computer time - which means less frequent reading and posting.

I am becoming increasingly suspicious of RobZ - expressly lobbying against us voting works in Mafia's favor (see Mafia II No Lynch Discussion - as well as any mafia theory site regarding nolynch option - Eg: http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?p=4044628

Then there was this:

Earlier when I talked about O, I meant that he wouldn't be a terrible loss for the town if we couldn't decide who to vote for. Later, though, this Jester business has me thinking he might be mafia. Thus a change in how I see him.

I'm not a mafia pro - but even I knew that Jester was extremely unlikely to be in the game - especially since our moderator told us there was nothing too crazy.  I don't see how an experienced player could read anything into O's Jester claim as something other than a joke...

Because I don't know how to read O wanting to kill himself unless he has something to gain by doing it. His whole "now the town would know I'm innocent" makes no sense.

I am absolutely not in favor of "No Lynch." We will, and we must, lynch. All I said was that accusations in my view suffice instead of voting, until it's time to vote. Just a personal preference, I suppose.

16427

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY

« on: May 31, 2012, 04:35:33 pm »

Here he does both of the things he criticizes in the first quote. In addition, at the end of the last quote he says lynching town could be ok in some situations. Which I don't altogether disagree with (in the case of a townie being extremely unhelpful or distracting, which I don't think is yet the case here), but he was pretty transparently talking about O at that time, even though he had just said that he didn't think he was mafia.

Now, however, he is hopping aboard the O bandwagon.

I am more capable of seeing him as a mafia whose plan was to make us suspect him of being the Jester so that we never kill him. The fact that he mentioned the Jester in the first place, and then proposed his self-hammering, would seem to support this.

So, these things bring me closer to wanting to lynch O, I guess.

I don't really get exactly what O is doing, but he doesn't seem very much like mafia to me. He has done a lot to generate discussion, which is good. However, a LOT of Robz' posts have seemed not-quite-right to me. I could post several more quotes here but I'd really like to hear other people's input. Do most others (besides eevee) just get a town read from him? It's certainly possible that I'm barking up the wrong tree here but everything Robz posts is making me more suspicious to me, not less.

Yes, I have done many of the things that I accuse you and Eevee of doing. Obviously, though, I don't suspect myself.

Earlier when I talked about O, I meant that he wouldn't be a terrible loss for the town if we couldn't decide who to vote for. Later, though, this Jester business has me thinking he might be mafia. Thus a change in how I see him.

It's interesting how razor-focused on me you are. And I don't mean it in a condescending "it's interesting... because you are the mafia" sort of way. Just interesting.

16428

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY

« on: May 31, 2012, 03:54:36 pm »

For the record: I have NOT been getting a town read from Eevee.

16429

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY

« on: May 31, 2012, 03:48:28 pm »

SO, if you are any other Role, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing whatever faction you're playing for) help your own faction?

Actually, this might be the answer we were looking for. Maybe he has a role that makes him more valuable to us dead, but he has to cast the ultimate vote himself. Suicide Cop or something?

Could you provide more info? I'm not (and I know this is true of others) familiar with possible roles this could be true of.

Others may not be familiar with such a role, but O is.

I once again claim Jester.

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Jester

If the Jester gets lynched, he wins.

Further relevant reading:

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=BBB%27s_Gambit

I don't think O would mention the Jester at all if he was one and planned to use that strategy. He mentioned the Jester earlier in this thread? Yeah, I don't think he would have done that. We might have killed him and never even guessed that's what it could be.

I am more capable of seeing him as a mafia whose plan was to make us suspect him of being the Jester so that we never kill him. The fact that he mentioned the Jester in the first place, and then proposed his self-hammering, would seem to support this.

So, these things bring me closer to wanting to lynch O, I guess.

16430

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY

« on: May 31, 2012, 03:34:16 pm »

SO, if you are any other Role, in what way does chopping your OWN head off (and causing whatever faction you're playing for) help your own faction?

Actually, this might be the answer we were looking for. Maybe he has a role that makes him more valuable to us dead, but he has to cast the ultimate vote himself. Suicide Cop or something?

16431

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY

« on: May 31, 2012, 03:32:35 pm »

Voting against whoever hammers the innocent person is a trap 90% of the time, unless Mafia are inept.

And self-hammering isn't to protect a power-role; it's to release information to the town by proving that I am a townie by ensuring I'm lynched. Honestly, it's still a very minor difference because if you have 6 you're probably dead anyways.

But, but... fallacies...

16432

Dominion General Discussion / Re: Meanest thing in Dominion

« on: May 31, 2012, 03:10:11 pm »

I agree with Ghost Ship. Second for me would be Swindler stuff.

16433

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia I: Murder in the Gardens, night 3

« on: May 31, 2012, 03:06:09 pm »

Oh, yes, a BIG thank-you to Pops for organizing!

16434

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY

« on: May 31, 2012, 02:46:15 pm »

Ok so this is a few pages old now, but in going back through each player's posts one thing that stood out to me was Morgrim7's behavior before the vote. Specifically, in a couple of his flavorful journal entries he said he was not going to vote until he had more information (#194 and #236). Then after O had random voted him, and Frisk joined in for Morgrim making unhelpful posts (#251), Morgrim's reaction was to unhelpfully post and vote random(#252, #254), casting aside that earlier notion of waiting for more information. It seems like a really panicked response, and why would he panic if he had nothing to hide?

Like Frisk says with the attributed to Napoleon quote, this could just be incompetence, but it feels weird to me.

And Morgrim's more recent vote for O strikes me as "Oh, you voted for me? Well I'll vote for you." And Morgrim has wanted O to defend his view for random voting (#297), but I feel that he did: he said it was done to generate discussion (which it clearly has) and importantly, he would change his vote when it matters (#318). I'm not sure what more Morgrim could be looking for from O.

There is a perfectly good explanation for Morgrim's behavior: He is crazy. Not mafia, not townie, not special role, just crazy.

16435

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia I: Murder in the Gardens, night 3

« on: May 31, 2012, 02:44:30 pm »

Well, Galz and I are already in it, so you might as well. They say Mafia II is more boring than Mafia I, but that's it. Yes, though, we should refrain from talking about Mafia II and I hope the other people in the quicktopic will refrain as well now that it is public...

16436

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia I: Murder in the Gardens, night 3

« on: May 31, 2012, 02:13:11 pm »

I think you guys played well considering you got unlucky with TINAS being the Cop and catching Ozle and the fact that I am blocked him Night 1 (really, I was trying to protect him!).

I still can't believe TINAS almost went to his grave on Day 1 keeping quiet about being Cop! And it worked.

16437

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY

« on: May 31, 2012, 02:10:46 pm »

No self-hammering, please. Never again.

16438

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia I: Murder in the Gardens, night 3

« on: May 31, 2012, 02:05:30 pm »

Awesome!!!!! We win!

Thanks to everyone for playing, this was really really really fun.

16439

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY

« on: May 31, 2012, 12:35:47 pm »

Robz, would you like to respond to the suspicions I put forth in #304?

In your other games (a thousand pardons) you seem to be a Stalwart. I knooow that you have your hands full with all of these games, but in this game you yourself would fit into the "participant" category. Just like you accuse the rest of us participants of doing, you are playing the middle ground. You seem to be unique in the category, because while you fit the suspicions you would be an extremely dangerous mafia to have around.

Sure. Here is your post #304:

Well the thing is I really wasn't very suspicious of O when I wrote the response to his post, I was more frustrated with his unwillingness to move past pure randomness. Since that I have become both more and less suspicious with him but ATM he's seeming town to me.

If we had to vote tomorrow I may vote def because I've seen like NOTHING from him and certainly not anything since things got a bit more serious.

But I think I would actually vote for Robz888 because he seems to be really trying hard to blend in during this game. I know that he's involved with all three other forum games but even when he has posted he has seemingly lacked conviction. Except for the mafia, we're all pretty much in the dark here. Yet it looks to me like he is intentionally trying only to fit in while not adding terribly much. This seems a little out of place and thus a little suspicious.

I'm not trying to blend in this game, I think it's just a side effect of so many people saying so much (much of it not important, until more recently). If I railroad over everything everybody says all of the time, I'm not going to learn anything. So I'm poking, prodding, gathering my suspicions. It may not look like the way I've played in other games--I do make conscious changes, and there are more people here, and I'm stretched a little thinner--and it's definitely in the ballpark of Participant behavior.

And... you are near the top on my list of suspicions, as you seem to have guessed. Your posts nicely fit the model I outlined, with a mix of serious and then taking-it-back plus humor and emoticons. Frequent but not too frequent.

16440

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY

« on: May 31, 2012, 12:17:50 pm »

My general thinking is that a statement of suspicion is easily shrugged off / ignored etc.  There is no sense of commitment.  It's difficult (without getting out pen and paper) to track who suspects which other players and look for patterns between them.  A vote however, is tallied - its a permanent thing.  We can easily see which players voted together.  As more and more votes tally up - more and more information accrues in a way that doesn't in a vague "I'm suspicious of <X>" way.  I would suggest that at this stage (low vote counts without crazy accusations etc. like Ozle vs. TINAS on M1D2) suspicion without voting is an anti-town play.  It lets you point the finger in a non committal way. 

Well, I don't agree. Suspicion without voting is, I think, preferable, though admittedly hard to keep track of. But I'm a little concerned that, "Hey let's have more votes, more votes everywhere! Don't just accuse, vote!" is something the mafia would say.

16441

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)

« on: May 31, 2012, 12:09:31 pm »

Since Galatia has expressed an interest in voting for me at the end of the 6 parter I feel like I should defend my day 3 actions because if I'm killed we lose. So well I have had a vote on me for coming up to 24 hours and almost every pairing has been on. That means im mafia or robz is. But we already knew that.

Day 3 out of the gates I vote robz. Well I was sure he was mafia on day 2. Nothing changed. Why wouldn't I replace my Vote?

later role claimed. This is information that has no benefit to the town. It's the same as role claiming town vanilla. Your more likely to be counterclaims but even if you are it's a 50/50 the town loses anyways and if your not then well mafia win

I've already voiced that I think v is his partner. His posts are just so damn helpful. And don't draw suspicion.

The bolded part of this post is super important. I'll post more later as I hate typin up posts on an iPhone

This information does in fact benefit the town, because if you believe I am Doctor--and I have provided reasons why you should--it narrows down the choices of who is mafia from 5 to 4. I have already explained why there was no downside to revealing:

I calculated that there was essentially no chance I get to use my doctor power to actually save someone, in any circumstance. As you note, the Mafia Rolecop exists. If the Rolecop never investigated anybody the town lynched, or anybody he and his mafia cohort killed, at present he would know everybody's role except one person. (5 people left: 2 mafia, 2 nights of investigation, 1 person remaining). There's a good chance of that, essentially the only thing to disrupt it that I can tell would be the mafia investigating Kuildeous or Bozzball on Night 1.

So, there's a good chance the mafia know I am doctor anyway. I think they probably would have killed me in the night if they knew (although you proposed an interesting reason why they would hold off), so my guess would be they learned it last night, I suppose. So it's no difference to them--either they discredit my claim and have me lynched (and we just lose), or they kill me in the night. This was all clear to them BEFORE I claimed Doctor. I don't get to Doctor anybody no matter what happens, in all overwhelming likelihood.

Also, even if they don't know I'm doctor, if I survive this lynch at all, I figured it would be because I had convinced the other townies to kill Insomniac, my runaway number 1 suspect. If we kill Insomniac, and he is mafia, and we go into the night phase, who is the other mafia going to kill? He is going to kill me, because if Insomniac is guilty, I am the most innocent looking person. So even if the mafia somehow had no knowledge of my Doctor status, I would still die tonight and the power would be totally meaningless.

So then, the question becomes: Why wouldn't I say I'm Doctor? I want to give the rest of the town members all the information I can, especially if it is information the mafia already have or probably didn't need to make their kill anyway.

I'm very sorry if the rest of the town thinks I have deprived us of a valuable tool. But I think you should see that there was really no chance I was going to get to use that tool to any effect, no matter whether everybody knows I'm doctor, the mafia know I'm doctor, or nobody knows I'm doctor.

Then of course Insomniac jumps on me with that immediate vote. I am thinking, "Uh, should I wait to say anything? Should I wait until there is another vote? What if 2 come at once? Well, it makes no difference, there's no benefit to keeping it a secret." So I said it.

My roleclaim was about clearing myself and giving the town more information, and my power was never going to actually protect anybody in the night. I thought it was the right thing to do, and I am still quite convinced of it. If it has made me look more suspicious, that's unfortunate, but... it was information that I possessed, that would help the town, and I had no reason to withhold it.

I think Insomniac is having a hard time understanding why I would do it, because he and I are playing differently. His modus operandi is, "What makes me more likely to survive?" Mine is, "What gives the town the best chance of winning?" I would reveal again in a heartbeat, there were no reasons to keep the info quiet and many reasons to share it.

16442

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY

« on: May 31, 2012, 02:31:10 am »

Okay, since I have a lot of mafia games going at once, in this game I am aiming to do fewer posts but more substance per post. I think that's more helpful anyway, since there are so many people writing comments and it is a little hard to even keep everyone straight. What I have done so far is to separate people into categories of how I see them behaving. These aren't necessarily "he's suspicious, he's not" categories, just one way of looking at everybody.

Stalwarts:
Jothonah
Voltgloss
Galzria
This group contains people who I feel I know better than other people. All three are exceedingly intelligent and analytical players. They are assets to the town. The down side to them is they are more dangerous if they are mafia. However, I may have a better idea whether they are mafia relative to other people. In any case, none have irritated me or caused me to grow suspicious of them yet.

Odd Balls:
O
Morgrim7
Everyone makes an odd comment now and then, but these two players stand out at the moment. Both chose pure, true random and voted based on it. To be fair, there was no evidence that either vote would lead to a kill. O's vote was for Morgrim, Morgrim's for Def. I don't think that either player behaved in a particularly helpful way, nor do I think their actions make them likely mafia. In fact, they were probably too strange to be mafia. Although Morgrim is so all over the place, I'm not sure I could recognize Mafia Morgrim in any scenario.

Participants:
Eevee
Michaeljb
Dsell
eHalycon
Captain_Frisk
This is the group of people (all new players) who have been somewhat active. And all of them, to some extent, have done what I consider "mafia middle-grounding." That's when they say something like, "WHat this person did here was suspicious, but then it was also not suspicious." Or they say something serious and then walk it back a bit with a joke. Obviously, this is something everybody does--I do it too--and it's not like a giveaway automatic mafia thing. But I tend to think in a game like this, with this many people, the mafia will want to be posting an "average" number of posts, that make bold claims but not crazy claims, that draw some specific targets but don't pursue them too hard. And lots of emoticons (And oh my goodness does Galzria do that too). So, I'm kind of looking at the people in this group more closely than the others. But we'll see. (Oh, and some of the people in this group have definitely done this more than others. I'd be interested to know if they know that.)

MIA:
def
yuma
I haven't heard enough from these people to really form an opinion of them. Both got votes already, but I think that was just by accident. Really, I think if they were mafia they might post a bit more.

If my characterizations seem off, please say something. Say something anyway. Just trying to stir the pot a bit.

16443

Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Resistance: The Empire Must Fall

« on: May 31, 2012, 01:54:38 am »

I support this team!

16444

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY

« on: May 30, 2012, 08:56:11 pm »

The true random voting--names out of a hat or number generator--is unhelpful because it doesn't generate discussion over the accusation. And I still say it is less likely to hit a mafia than hunch and evidence-based voting, but maybe only slightly less likely. Still, we are going to need these conversations to look back on next round and really start figuring things out.

For that reason, the true random voting is bad/unhelpful town behavior. So I was asking these bad/unhelpful town players to defend themselves. It doesn't mean I actually think they're mafia. I personally toss accusations around but reserve actual voting for the person I have settled on.

(For the record, though, since we may very well have no clue who the mafia is this round, killing the worst townie, even if we don't suspect him very much, isn't the worstfallback plan...)

16445

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia I: Murder in the Gardens, Day 2.

« on: May 30, 2012, 05:54:10 pm »

Okay, we know Ozle was mafia. Let's pretend for a moment that TINAS was the other mafia. That means I am Jailkeeper! We can't all three be mafia! If you disbelieve TINAS, you must believe me.

If TINAS were mafia, it means that he chose to kill no one last night instead of killing me. Remember, I can't save myself. I can only save others. And I chose to block Axxle--and in this scenario you must believe me! Because TINAS is the other mafia and I am a rational Jalkeeper townie--rather than TINAS because I believed TINAS. So why does he pass the opportunity to kill me for free? There's no way he wins long-term by leaving me alive for more additional rounds for no reason.

Ok, now the reverse. TINAS is the cop, I am lying and a mafia. Why wouldn't I have killed TINAS instead of no one? TINAS is the cop, I can't keep him around. There's no one to protect him, since no one contradicted my Jailkeeper claim.

The mafia can't win by foregoing kills in the night. If either me or TINAS were lying and actually mafia, we could have and should have killed the other one. We can't both be mafia because Ozle is mafia. Therefore, we are both telling the truth.

16446

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY

« on: May 30, 2012, 05:10:38 pm »

Yeah, voting this random is going to be close to random. There's no need to make it EXACTLY random. In fact, we will face the same problems next round if our kill this round is made for purely random reasons. We need to question, accuse, harass. Although I guess these random voters are instructive in that they give us someone to accuse.

So, I insist that pure random voting is the worst thing you can do for the town. O and Morgrim have done it. I ask you both: Why? Do you disagree with my analysis? Will you admit to being the mafia?

Typo: ****Yeah, voting this ROUND is going to be close to random. There's no****

16447

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY

« on: May 30, 2012, 05:09:59 pm »

Yeah, voting this random is going to be close to random. There's no need to make it EXACTLY random. In fact, we will face the same problems next round if our kill this round is made for purely random reasons. We need to question, accuse, harass. Although I guess these random voters are instructive in that they give us someone to accuse.

So, I insist that pure random voting is the worst thing you can do for the town. O and Morgrim have done it. I ask you both: Why? Do you disagree with my analysis? Will you admit to being the mafia?

16448

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia I: Murder in the Gardens, Day 2.

« on: May 30, 2012, 04:56:15 pm »

Robz, if you don't suspect TINAS enough to even at least jail him tonight then he's already won.

If you remember, I suspected all the time on Day 1 and Day 2. I think I voted for him both days. But with the revelation that the other cop claimer was the Mafia Rolecop, really I can't not believe him at this point.

16449

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia I: Murder in the Gardens, Day 2.

« on: May 30, 2012, 04:43:47 pm »

I'm still semi-suspicious of Robz. He has a tendency to make claims... 

And Ozle claimed he got jailed, which Robz backed up. Ozle was also Mafia. If Ozle and Robz conspired to set up a story for Robz, and try to misslynch TINAS, kill someone, Lynch Ozle (as he would be obviously Mafia), kill someone, then we'd be stuck in a 2-1 situation where Robz has a hard-to-debunk jailkeeper claim.

He DOES have the benefit of his story matching with TINAS.

All of this has convinced me that Davio is almost certainly town. The odds that neither TINAS or ROBZ are lying, that axxle jailed AND Davio tried to kill Axxle (or nolynched, which seems highly unlikely...) seem pretty slim.

So hopefully I want my votes to align with Davio and FTL. Obviously 2 of the 3 (OK, *at least* 2 of the three if you still suspect me at all) of Robz, TINAS and Axxle are still not mafia, so them voting with me doesn't immediately disqualify my opinion.

Keep in mind that my logic for thinking Davio is innocent also applies to myself... so if you agree with my assessment about Davio, it's also true that it's very unlikely that I'm mafia either.

I understand the semi-suspicion of me because I was wrong about Ozle. But if you think I'm mafia, why would I kill no one last night? Certainly I should have killed TINAS, or at least somebody. It wouldn't make sense to miss a chance to kill.

In all overwhelming likelihood, everybody is who they said they are at this point, and either Axxle is mafia, or he was the target of the mafia. I'm fairly convinced he's the mafia, since he didn't vote for fellow mafia Ozle. If we're wrong about Axxle, I block O or Davio tonight, TINAS investigates one of them, and we have our answer via process of elimination.

VOTE: AXXLE

16450

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia III: In a shelter among beggars DAY 1 UNDERWAY

« on: May 30, 2012, 04:15:30 pm »

haha trying my best to be insightful and smart and coming out as silly, thats painful to hear

You are insightful. I meant that you are insightful and a little silly, which strikes me as mafia. But it could be that I am exaggerating how silly you are because you are a cute Pokemon.