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Messages - Robz888

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16376
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Resistance: The Empire Must Fall
« on: June 03, 2012, 01:06:33 pm »
Oh, no.... the dread Opinion Maker! Um, we want to give it to a spy, right?

16377
Jo: Need that roleclaim, buddy. I know it sucks having to claim round 1, but that's the way the game is played. And I really wish you hadn't delayed like this, because it's going to make it very hard to believe you, with only a little time left.

To Volt:

I'm going to have to look again at this Eevee thing.  The gist of Robz's suspicion seems to be that Eevee mixes humor, substance, and non-substance in a "mafia middle-ground" way (a concept Robz created), and that Eevee is downplaying his abilities.  The problem I have is that this seems to be suspicion based solely on a person's RL posting style, rather than anything concrete that would point to them being Mafia.  It feels like the Morgrim attack that Robz guided in M-II.  (I'm not saying Robz is Mafia because he's targeting Eevee.  I'm saying Robz's attack on Eevee, if Robz is Town, feels like my attack on Morgrim in M-II.)

Sure, but what concrete things really point to anyone being mafia at this point? This round has spread wildly out of control and I don't know what to think. Some I am trying to go back to basics. I think my "mafia middle-ground" is a decent-ish idea for how a new-ish mafia would play the game. And Eevee's constant--constant--downplaying of his own abilities has struck me as weird, because he does it a lot. But there is some serious game play mixed in there. I understand the comparison to Morgrim, but really, Morgrim was acting suspicious in MII (now we know he was just being Morgrim, and I for one have acquitted him in this game for now).

Am I certain of Eevee being mafia? Not even close. It's just a hunch and a best guess going off a little evidence, at this point.

16378
Galzria: "Pineapple is CERTAINLY good." Posts 1,000 more times about Pineapple

Voltgloss: "Robz, could you submit a research paper on your thoughts about Pineapple? I'm waiting. Thank you."

16379
Me: "Pineapple tastes good."

Dsell: "You know, I see what Robz is saying, but I don't think he's being entirely fair to Pineapple. This is just like what he said about Pineapple in that other game. Remember, when he was mafia? Now he claims to like Pineapple but he was very quiet on the subject initially, and everything he has done has only made me more convinced he doesn't actually like Pineapple."

16380
Dominion General Discussion / Re: What cards are the most fun?
« on: June 03, 2012, 03:26:50 am »
When those 'most liked card' lists from Qvist eventually see the light of day, I predict Wharf will be very high.  Unlike many of the other ones, I can't really imagine people DISliking Wharf.  I get huge hands to do awesome things?  Awesome. I get extra buys so that I can use all this money?  Even better.

Like several others here, I also really like Black Market.  Though I often feel like I ought to hate it.

I don't dislike Wharf exactly, but I'm not always happy to see it. It's just so unsubtle. Usually, you need it, you need it fast, and then you need more of it, and then you're done. Plenty of cards work like that, so like I said, I don't dislike Wharf... but I'll veto it now and then just because the game is going to be predictable.

Black Market just infuriates me.

As for cards I like, I already mentioned Duke and Silk Road, but also Haggler, Masquerade, Nobles, Hoard, Crossroads, Explorer. I like Green, what can I say? My favorite action-style deck card is by far Scrying Pool.

16381
So we're settling on an Eevee bandwagon Robz? Because even though my random number generator gets knocked down, as a townie the ideal situation is that you select a person and get everyone to bandwagon on them (that minimizes the mafia influence on the voting)

As I'm relatively confident of your town status, I'd be welcome to share that bandwagon campaign with you  ;D

Glad to have you aboard! Although I see you are already aboard. I'm not sure you understand how this works. If you could kindly unvote for Eevee, please. I demand it. And then revote, for Eevee. And perhaps other will catch on to the idea and join you. All are welcome.

16382
Dominion General Discussion / Re: What cards are the most fun?
« on: June 03, 2012, 03:03:53 am »

16383
Okay, I have a couple things to address. First, Jotheonah:

Ok, well I need to go to bed. I'll be on tomorrow morning and if people want me to full claim I'll do it in the morning. In any event, please afford me the courtesy of staying Vote #7 and allowing me my last words.

Or, alternately, just unvote and don't make this horrible town mistake.

Okay, I want you to full claim. I think it's necessary at this point. In fact, I wish you had simply done it then, because this way it gives the appearance that you are taking the time to think up a suitable cover role. I'm not saying I won't believe you--indeed, I probably will believe you--but this looks much worse to me.

Oh, and we really shouldn't kill Jo, unless his claim is ridiculous or he is counterclaimed. But we shouldn't kill me either!

On to Volt:

The "rebuttal" I'm waiting for is what's alluded to here:

Can you see me doing it because the players who are attacking you are making a convincing argument whereas you are not? Cause that's what's happening...

I hate to leave it like this, I really do, but I have a ticket for a Jonathan Coulton concert and I gotta head out. Back on much later tonight.

Their argument is terrible. Luckily, it will be disproved quite soon.

I assume something further is coming to disprove the arguments against Robz.  That's what I'm hoping to see in the morning.

Unfortunately, all I meant by that was this: I assumed I was going to be killed, and that would disprove the "Robz is mafia" argument. Once I die, you will all see that I am town. But since that's not the explanation you wanted, I'll try to defend myself again anyway.

(I like that you post relevant youtube scenes. If I could, the scene that reminds me most of how you ask me for answers happened on the most recent "Game of Thrones" episode. Lady Sansa asks Joffrey if he will be leading the vanguard in the battle. Joffrey looks around nervously and replies that he is not going to consult battle plans with stupid girls. Sansa replies, "Oh, forgive me, I AM stupid. Of course, you will lead the vanguard, how stupid to even ask!" That's you and me in this game, Volt.)

Grah, forgot something.

Robz, you said that you've been playing "sloppy" if you were Mafia, and asked me if you play sloppy.  The implication, of course, being that because you're playing sloppy, you can't be Mafia.

The problem is that you yourself said you change the way you play with every game. 

You just got done playing a game as Mafia where you were far from sloppy.  Now, you're in a new game.  You're supposedly being "sloppy."  But you change the way you play every game.  So how does that acquit you?  If you were really Mafia again in this game, I think the last thing you would do is play just like you played in M-II.

I'm not saying "you must be Mafia because you're playing differently than M-II."  I'm saying that I don't find comparing your behavior in this game to your behavior in M-II is really all that compelling one way or another.  (I know this is a centerpiece of Dsell's argument.  You'll notice I didn't cite it.  That's because I don't find it compelling.)

Okay, I'll try to defend myself again. First about changing how I play--I don't think I revolutionize how I play every game. And we can't totally control our behavior. In Mafia II, I really tried to control every possible impulse to say things. I think a careful obsverer of I and III will note that I've been faster and looser. But whatever, these comparisons don't help so much. Why I am innocent? Because the case made against me is weak.

Dsell indicated that he was suspicious of me early on, before I had said much of anything. He found my lack of posting disturbing. I've explained numerous times why I didn't post so much, but here it is again 1)There were a lot of other games 2)We had new people and I wanted to let them take the reigns. So I ignored Dsell at first, posting and ignoring him. Well, he brought it up again. So I fired back at him a bit, not really satisfying his question, to see what he would do. I didn't dream that this would turn him to campagin against me, nor that it would convince others I was suspicious. I was certainly too convinced of my invincibility in the first round of this game. I was making every effort to needle and gather suspicions, and refusing to discuss myself much. I didn't bother to explain myself, and this has come back to be a problem.

However, I can't help get the feeling that Dsell was after me the whole time, no matter what I say. Yes, I've heard his explanations for how this turned from slight suspicion to near certainty, but it doesn't make sense to me. It wouldn't, I suppose, since I know am a member of the town. He's either a very mislead member of the town, or a member of the mafia.

Look, I'm sure I don't have satisfactory responses to all questions about what I did this round. I intentionally needled Eevee a bit, and that has caused me to grow suspicious of him--he is STILL downplaying his abilities, even after I called him out for it. And he's a poker player! Not a 12-year-old! He's still suspicious to me. And so are you--although you switching your vote just made things more complicated--and so is Dsell and so is Jo, and... I'm confused this round. I'll admit it. If the members of the mafia were actually Galzria, eHalycon, and Def, it actually wouldn't surprise me at all (just a random three there). Moving on:

Galzria's defense of RobZ is making me nervous, I know that some of us are n00bs, but frankly the "We're the experienced players and we're so good - so unvote before you have both of us killed" is slightly insulting.

Jotheonah IS Mafia. Volt PROBABLY is Mafia. Robz IS town.

I don't see how any truly town player could make such a confident statement - for sure we don't have anything firm to support an explicit statement of fact.

To be fair, I agree that Galzria doesn't know the meaning of the word certainty. He is way to confident about what he actually knows. I don't know at all how he is "sure" Jo is a mafia member. Now it looks like Jo might actually be a power townie, so yeah. That said, I agree with a lot of Galzria's analysis. Just not always his confidence.

So, if Jo is a power townie... anybody want to hop on the Eevee bandwagon? It's not too late... all are welcome...

16384
Dominion General Discussion / Re: What cards are the most fun?
« on: June 03, 2012, 02:23:04 am »
I am always happy to see Silk Roads or Dukes. Love me a game where I don't need any silly Provinces.

16385
I am SO tempted to pull an O, and ask Robz if I can lynch him to teach the town a lesson. Except that it's such a terrible idea.

Oh, goodness I would understand it. I briefly flirted with pulling a Morgrim (self-lynch). I worry that the best help I can be at this point is to show the town the truth.

I would say with some certainty that 2 of the mafia are among the following people: Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss, Jo.

16386
Variants and Fan Cards / Re: Horse Traders Variant
« on: June 02, 2012, 06:14:22 pm »
Yeah. You could just load up on these, never mind the discard bonus part.

16387
But hear this, Galzria: You are defending Robz SO strongly it actually appears that that would be too transparent if you were both mafia. So for now I will assume you are town. (If you were mafia and Robz was town I assume you would have no problem lynching him). Ok, so for now you're town. Please look over what I have said and what Voltgloss has said against Robz. I am not so sure that you have such a good feel for him that you would be able to say absolutely that he is innocent. If he wants to play well as mafia, part of that would be to convince you, his former partner, that he is town. Try to set aside your preconceptions and look at how he's acted in THIS game. How does it look? WHY does it look so very town to you? Just be thinking about this.

I think you are under-thinking things. The mafia could be using--wait for it--complicated strategies where they take the preconceived notions about what mafia would do and use them to their advantage.

"You are defending Robz SO strongly it actually appears that that would be too transparent if you were both mafia. So for now I will assume you are town."

Don't you see how he might expect you to think that, and do it anyway?

(Note, I'm not arguing Galzria is mafia--just an example of how your thinking about what the mafia would and wouldnt do is too simple.)

16388
Can you see me doing it because the players who are attacking you are making a convincing argument whereas you are not? Cause that's what's happening...

I hate to leave it like this, I really do, but I have a ticket for a Jonathan Coulton concert and I gotta head out. Back on much later tonight.

Their argument is terrible. Luckily, it will be disproved quite soon.

16389
Basically town, V and J are trying RIGHT NOW to slam the door on Robz, and if successful, you will have NEITHER of us day 2.

That is a good point.

TOWN: DO you hear us? I am absolutely going to come up Town (possibly in a few minutes). The bad guys are among these people who voted for me. I'm positive of that.

16390
What I find more suspicious Robz, is that Volt COMPLETELY ignored me and J. This indicates to me (scary thought), that there very well could be 2 in V-J. See, V neither wanted to help J out directly by defending him, nor did he want to come after me because he can kill me at night. By ignoring J and I, and redirecting to where there is already suspicions he could hit two birds with one stone.

I'm not really going to focus on Mafiosi #2 at this point, but I feel that was very important to get out there. I had been waiting for awhile for V to speak up, and now he has. My Mafia trio :

J-V-#3

Yeah, obviously I don't like J getting on this bandwagon. I mean, I can see him doing it just because he's town and he would rather not die, though, you know?

16391
The idea that we are a team is ridiculous. That would be the WORST mafia play ever.

But it comes with a built-in defense!

16392
Robz, I think you're grasping at straws.  The mafia don't need to lynch anyone today. They can live with a no-lynch. You're saying they're placing the first 3 votes on you? You are following your established scum pattern of always accusing your accusers. And I'm not buying it.

Actually, this is wrong. It's always been wrong. The mafia prefer lynching an innocent to No Lynch. They only prefer No Lynch to lynching mafia.

(Yes, last game I argued that No Lynch helped the mafia. I was lying. I was the mafia.)

The fewer day lynches, the more nights. The more nights, the more townies using their powers to figure things out. The mafia absolutely want two deaths per cycle, not one. They want us to kill someone, as long as it isn't one of them.

That's not to say WE should do No Lynch. But the mafia aren't aiming for No Lynch either. They are aiming for me.

Unvote

Vote: Robz888

I'm voting precisely because I don't believe all of Robz's accusers to be mafia, and I'm finding their case against him much more compelling then either G's case against me or Robz's case against Eevee.

PREPOST EDIT:
You know this Robz, but journalist (science, magazine), 24, NYC

Well, I'm not asking you to believe the case against all of them. I am asking you to believe the case against one of them: Eevee. 5 votes for me! This is trouble.

Well, perhaps it's not so bad. I can still win if I'm dead. I am a Townie, and you will learn that soon. Hopefully you will remember what I think: Please do not let Dsell acquit himself on his defense that "Oh, why would I go after Robz, if I were mafia?" I will suspect Eevee, Dsell, and Voltgloss to my grave. In any case, you will see that either Dsell or Voltgloss were very, very, very wrong--so stop listening to them!--or that perhaps they are mafia.

16393
Eevee's isotropic name is MrEevee, so I assume "he".  Also, I posted this earlier but nobody responded!

Oops, sorry! For the record I am a he. When I'm not sure I usually check people's profiles, but Eevee did not have a gender specified.

A side note, but this has something to do with... something else I was wondering. This is a sort of out of left field request, but... I was really curious about everybody's gender, age, job, and country of origin. If you don't want to answer, that's fine, and of course you could just lie. I know this information might help me in my readings on a couple people.

Well, anyway, if nobody wants to do it, that's fine. But I'll start: I am a 23-year-old male from Detroit, Michigan. I am a journalist who writes mostly about public policy, specifically higher education.

16394
So, why do I suspect Robz?

  • He responded to Dsell's mild suspicion, first by ignoring it; second by being nasty back; and third by attacking him in return.
  • He has not fairly met Dsell's core criticism:  that Robz is acting exactly like he says the Mafia would act.  Robz admits this, but asserts it doesn't matter, because why would he act like he says the Mafia would act?  But this devolves into WIFOM* that I don't find compelling:  Robz himself laid out those criteria, and could just as well be a Mafia acting in accordance therewith so he could claim (as he has) that he can't be Mafia or he wouldn't have laid out those criteria.
  • His insistence that he is one of the town's most helpful players and so shouldn't be lynched.  But he hasn't been helpful;  he's been (in his own words) nasty, needling, and accusatory towards those who have dared to suspect him.
  • His accusation that Dsell tried to preemptively defend himself in case of a mislynch.  "Everybody remember that?"  Actually, no, Robz, I don't.  I remember you characterizing one of Dsell's posts as that, and I remember Dsell rebutting your characterization as inaccurate.  And I definitely do not remember you fairly meeting the substance of his rebuttal.  Or meeting it at all, in fact.

Okay, here is Dsell's weaseling out:

If I turn out to be wrong and lead your lynch and you turn out to be a townie, that would be very unfortunate. And I would expect a lot of suspicion to be cast on me, rightly so. But I trust that my posts thus far and future posts will be clear, well-reasoned, and show my support for the town.

And he did it again recently:

I'm going to be on and off today, but obviously I will try to follow this as closely as possible.

As promised, here's a short analysis of how well I think people might be playing if they were mafia:

Dsell: Again, biased. But IF I were mafia, I actually don't think I would be playing well. I've taken one of the riskier game plans, going after one of the strongest and most experienced players, who is excellent at defending himself. I started a campaign against him before anyone else had suspected him at all, or even had any reason to suspect him. I could have jumped on Morgrim or O, who have confuzzled a few people, or on Eevee for being "suspiciously newbish" or on def because "we can't reward the non-participants." But no, I jumped on Robz, and have been fairly relentless. Seriously, how bad would that look if I led this whole campaign based on nothing and then we lynched town? Pretty bad. Of course that scenario also works if I'm misguided town (I certainly hope I'm not) but either way that's WAY more suspicion than I would want to put on myself early on if I were mafia.

When I come up Town, Dsell is going to deflect the suspicion toward him by saying it was too risky and unnecessary for a mafia person to go after someone so strongly round 1. So he has his defense all planned. In that way, killing me is great for him, because it gets rid of a dangerous townie and creates a nice defense for him later: "See, I can't be mafia! I did this!" Not that this is essentially a defense I employed in Mafia II, by gradually trying to shift the opinion to, oh the mafia wouldn't have launched this campaign against Morgrim, it was dangerous and unnecessary, the non-Morgrim voters are the truly suspicious ones. When in reality, 2 of the 3 who strongly pushed for Morgrim were mafia. Dsell's mistake is that he is trying to do this before I am even dead and buried.

Robz says of Dsell, "he has a Robz888 focus and as Robz888 I don't get it."  As someone who is NOT Robz888, looking at their discussion from the outside, I do get it.

And finally, here's the clincher, from Robz's most recent post about Eevee:

But what about Eevee? Do you see what I'm saying? Lalala I don't know what I'm doing, I'm just a cute Pokemon, lalala... and IT'S SUSPICIOUS.

I don't recall Eevee saying he's "just a cute Pokemon."  I do recall someone saying it, though.

haha trying my best to be insightful and smart and coming out as silly, thats painful to hear :D

You are insightful. I meant that you are insightful and a little silly, which strikes me as mafia. But it could be that I am exaggerating how silly you are because you are a cute Pokemon.

Robz is accusing Eevee of doing something that, in fact, Robz himself did.

I didn't mean to imply that Eevee said he was a cute Pokemon. You're right, I said that, and sort of in jest both times. I apologize: You're right that I made it look the wrong way. That was unintentional. But my point about Eevee--that he wield his sheep-like attitude and his inexperience as a weapon--remains.

Volt, if I am mafia, I am playing a pretty sloppy game. Do I play sloppy?

Of course I don't expect to convince you. Yes, I'm accusing all the people who voted for me (well, not Captain Frisk), but I'm beginning to imagine a Dsell, Eevee, Voltgloss team.

They have certainly already begun acquitting each other:

I'm-pretty-sure-is-town: Voltgloss, Dsell (good, well-argumented posts that strongly make me feel like I can trust you. Either of these being mafia is a scary thought but I can't really see that being the case, it doesnt seem like either is holding any info back).

A final impression:  out of everyone else so far, Dsell seems to be making the most generally reasonable, well-thought-out posts.  If I had to pick "most likely other player to be Town" at this very moment, I'd pick him. 

I know what they will say, and I know what many of you will say: If they were all mafia, there's no way they would play so closely, or vote together so immediately, or invest such public trust in each other, because it would look two suspicious. I believe they are employing a double bluff (double, single, triple? I can't count). Because we would not suspect people who do that, for exactly that reason. I believe they are giving it a try--working in semi-obvious tandem, so in tandem that it can't be possible.

16395
Well, I'm sorry for you, Voltgloss. Well articulated arguments and eventually votes against Morgrim, Kuildeous, Insomniac, and now me. You are about to be 0-4, my friend.

Substantive rebuttal to follow.

16396
There might be something to this Rob A and Rob B theory! Honestly, during the first round of Mafia II, I had convinced myself that Morgrim was mafia.

I remember thinking: "Oh, yes, we got him now. Look at him squirm. We caught that mafia son of a... no, wait. Wait a minute. I'm the mafia."

16397
But what about Eevee? Do you see what I'm saying? Lalala I don't know what I'm doing, I'm just a cute Pokemon, lalala... and IT'S SUSPICIOUS.

16398
It looks like we have room for one additional player....

16399
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia II: Of Goons and Woodcutters (Day 3)
« on: June 02, 2012, 02:59:01 pm »
So... yeah.

I got a guilty on Robz night 1 - After reading, he was my prime suspect due to his general behaviour and also gut feeling, with Voltgloss and Galzria not far behind - Volt because I found some of his reasoning for voting Morgrim EXTREMELY suspect and forced, Galzria for constantly talking about what the mafia wants to do, something townies don't really want or need to do much.

My notes are here, although I stopped updating after night 1. I'd say be careful as I might pick you out on things, but you joined a game of mafia, so you should be expecting it...

Well, we were very lucky then. So glad Galzria convinced me we should kill you! I think I wanted to kill Kuildeous.

16400
Okay, having read the recent exchange.... I really don't think Jotheonah is mafia. He seems to tense and angry. I think he would have played things a little closer to the chest if we were mafia. He's gone off on people a bit and... I would expect him to be more guarded. Really, I don't blame him for that "who do you think?" exercise at all. We need to do things like that or else we will have the dreaded "No Lynch," which nobody wants.

Unfortunately, I'm quite worried we're heading into a it's him or me scenario. Yuck.

So, about Eevee:

I feel like such a sheep, everytime someone posts a long, well-written analysis (actually, shorter ones do as well if they are smart enough) as to why someone is likely scum, I feel like "omg that's so correct!!". Makes me wonder how easily I could be (mis)led by mafia as well..
I cant really fathom Galzria being mafia after those posts, he sounds so genuine.. but maybe I'm way too easy to fool. Still, he looks to me like perhaps _the_ most helpful townie so he is the last person I'd vote for atm.

Btw, I dont mind the long posts at all guys, they feel helpful (even convincing) and you are not just talking in circles but actually getting somewhere with them.

// Haha O, i dont really understand what you are doing.

I am not buying his "aw shucks" routine at all. He is constantly, constantly saying things like he doesn't know what's going on, or is worried about being played, he's new to this, blah blah blah... he is down-playing his skills in every possible posts he makes. And they are silly. And every now and then they are serious. Indeed, he has already voted for me.

Could it be genuine? Sure. But I'm willing to be it's at least partly an act. That's the best lead I have. My only other big suspect is Dsell, but I guess there's a good chance that he is just wrong, wrong, wrong rather than he is mafia. So I would stick with Eevee.

Um, Galzria--can I convince you not to vote for J? You are so sure. I think you're wrong. He's being way too confrontational for mafia.

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