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Messages - Dylan32

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51
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 3)
« on: December 12, 2021, 06:52:58 pm »
Everything is stupid. I wish I had been able to check in after Joseph claimed the mistake and before the hammer, because honestly that did make more sense than scum!Joseph both fakeclaiming and then targeting me... but then that's probably just wishful thinking with hindsight.

Scum apparently has a rolecop and hit gkrieg N1, because I really didn't expect to be alive today, and gkrieg seems like a really random target otherwise.

52
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 2)
« on: December 09, 2021, 09:00:49 pm »
But, recalling how unlikely I think 2 mayors is in the first place, 2 + 1 drunk seems even less likely.

53
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 2)
« on: December 09, 2021, 08:58:40 pm »
There could be two mayors and a drunk on the wagon.

I mean, technically possible. If there is another drunkmayor on the wagon, you pretty much have to claim now, and if you don't it's a scum claim later.

54
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 2)
« on: December 09, 2021, 06:10:10 pm »
Oh, and Swowl, you're my hero! lol

55
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 2)
« on: December 09, 2021, 06:08:27 pm »
Vote: Joseph

Joth nailed it with the vote analysis.

The only non-scum killing role listed as possible is an Even-night vig. Last night was an odd night, so the kill that targeted me was scum.

56
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 07, 2021, 02:56:22 pm »
That said, the scola/Didds pairing is one to look at tomorrow if MiX is town.

57
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 07, 2021, 02:55:46 pm »
Well there's no reason to reread as scum. At least if you assume I'm town.

Cause scum would never a) claim to reread or b) actually reread, in order to make an argument.

If Mix ends up being scum, I'm, thinking EFHW for tomorrow.

I just wholeheartedly disagree with the premise that there's no reason to reread as scum and that they would never actually do it. I've reread as scum in pretty much every scum game I've played. You don't win (as often at least) as scum without looking like you are actually scumhunting. You can't look like you're scumhunting without actually looking back and finding things that people have said that look scummy.

I guess I'm agreeing with scola here, because I think I missed the heavily implied sarcasm until after I was done typing that first paragraph lol.

58
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 07, 2021, 11:33:09 am »
Vote: MiX

I'll catch up more thoroughly in a half hour or so.

59
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 06, 2021, 11:42:21 pm »
The fact is, we are bagging as if you are both if now do having your both vote for me will not help us distinguish between who is drunk and who is a mayor.
The point of all this is not to find out who is Drunk and who is Mayor (because arguably that is not information we want to make available to scum). The point is just to test whether someone is lying.

So at first when I saw this post from Didds, it rang as scummy to me since I think it's been clear that we (or at least I if nobody else) wanted to keep that distinction away from scum. Definitely would be enough to bump Didds back into the exile pool for me, but then I remembered the whole vacation thing, and forgetting a detail like that when the idea earlier in the game was to figure out which the claimer was is pretty understandable, so probably it's nothing.

60
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 06, 2021, 11:37:11 pm »
Math will quote the hammer, by the way, so we don't need him to be active as long as we apply good conditional logic and have 1 person we want to exile.

That's a good point, I totally forgot about that. Also, I was more worried about it when I was thinking we were going to try to get Joseph on Didds real quick and then find a different wagon and not knowing how things would go.

61
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 06, 2021, 12:42:14 pm »

...

Phase Two: Random other player votes with what *should* be the hammer. If exile happens, there were exactly two votes between Joseph and I, which means we had one mayor and one drunk as expected and we are IC (unless you genuinely think Joseph and I BOTH fakeclaimed, in which case, test one of us individually to make it mathematically 100%). If no exile, go to phase 3.

Phase Three: One more person votes. If the exile happens, one of us (Joseph) lied and the other (me) is drunk. If no exile, we are both drunks, and the wagon is for sure at X-1.

If you don't understand, doubt, or disagree with anything, please be specific with your questions in relation to this, because I've been sick this weekend and it's totally possible I'm just not thinking or typing as clearly as I think I am lol.

ppe 4

Plenty of posts have happened after this one, but my biggest issue is here Phase 2 (and 3). I don't know if we're really set to exile WCD (the current testee) and all this testing talk time is really hurting our focus.

So I'm fine with Phase 1, but it gets us very little info and then we need to regroup and determine who we may actually want to exile. Add in the fact of different time zones, not knowing when exactly mod will post new vote counts, this feels guaranteed to leave us scrambling at the last minute. Which is in the middle of the day for those of us in the US and may be hard to have a lot of time to read / post / vote.

So honestly, I think at this point we need to move past the testing and just try to play like a normal end of D1.

I'm happy with my current vote.

Yeah, it would be better to figure out where we are actually going to exile and then test it. The one thing I hadn't thought about is just how rarely the mod has posted voting updates. We would really need those to happen pretty quickly between each step to not bottleneck us. That said, reiterating what I've said since then, what is likely going to happen is phase 1 nothing happens, one more person votes and that's the hammer.

62
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 06, 2021, 12:27:03 pm »
Hi Dylan,
faust and I had a conversation early in the day from which the conclusion was that 2 drunks was very unlikely, from a game balance perspective. I think this conclusion holds whether the scum team is either 2 or 3.
Haven't gone through the same detail for how likely 2 mayors is, but my gut feel is that it would be unbalanced with a 2-player scum team, but might be fine with a 3-player scum team.

So I wouldn't rule out the 2-mayor scenario, unless we can somehow rule out a 3-scum scenario.

PPE 7!!!

I agree with the 2 drunks is very unlikely in part based on that convo! My objection to two mayors isn't balance based (although there is that factor), it's flavor based. The idea of having two mayors is as absurd as, well, a town of mice with a drunk that thinks they run the town haha.

But really, looking at the setup, it just seems like the mayor and drunk roles were designed specifically to have one of each in the game and introduce these mechanics and converations to the game. It's neat, and maybe us claiming D1 is making it play out very differently than the mod thought it would, but I'm assuming that between the two of us either Joseph and I have the two votes from one of each role or he's scum, which I also think is unlikely based on early conversations about scum fakeclaiming a publicly verifiable role D1. So really, the test basically just needs to be the two of us vote at X-3 to make it X-1 and someone hammers. There's probably a 90+ percent chance that the exile happens there and that's the end of it. If it's important to know which is which later we can test individually, but even if scum tries to mess with it via roleblocking, all that happens is we still don't know if mayor or drunk as opposed to not knowing mayor/drunk or fakeclaiming scum.

ppe 1

63
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 06, 2021, 12:18:37 pm »
So when I said "FOR SURE," that is the level of confidence I'm at with that statement.

64
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 06, 2021, 12:18:00 pm »
"I am assuming there are not two mayors"

"then town knows FOR SURE that one of us is scum and the other is mayor"

These 2 statements contradict each other. The 2 mayors should vote on a wagon with 2 votes. Then we immediately rule out the 2 mayor possibility.

Personally I give it exactly a 0% chance there are two mayors. That is nonsense. If you insist on starting the test from there to rule it out though, I'm ok with doing that, it just seems unnecessary.

Phrased another way, I think two mayors is equally likely as everyone in the town is either mayor or drunk and only two of us were willing to claim and for some reason everyone else was like yeah those two claims are nearly IC lol

65
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 06, 2021, 12:16:22 pm »
"I am assuming there are not two mayors"

"then town knows FOR SURE that one of us is scum and the other is mayor"

These 2 statements contradict each other. The 2 mayors should vote on a wagon with 2 votes. Then we immediately rule out the 2 mayor possibility.

Personally I give it exactly a 0% chance there are two mayors. That is nonsense. If you insist on starting the test from there to rule it out though, I'm ok with doing that, it just seems unnecessary.

66
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 06, 2021, 12:14:07 pm »
Unvote

I agree Didds probably is the best exile, and so we should focus on figuring out where we are actually going to go.

If I wasn't one of the people with vote shenanigans going on, I would be voting for fang.

67
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 06, 2021, 12:12:17 pm »
It seems like having both Dylan and Joseph vote for the same person is entirely pointless.

Did you read my post right above yours?

68
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 06, 2021, 12:11:20 pm »
Vote "count" 1.2:
Votes for EFHW: MiX
Votes for fang: EFHW
votes for MiX: Joseph2302
votes for WestCoastDidds: faust, gkrieg13, infangthief

not voting: Dylan32, jotheonah, scolapasta, Swowl, WestCoastDidds
(with 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to exile)

Reminder: Day 1 ends at 3:00pm EST on Tuesday, December 7th (that's just over 52 hours away)


Following through on what I said last night, Vote: Didds. That's either X-1 or X-3.

If Joseph votes now that will be pretty bad for us. Can you wait for Didds to have 2 votes?

Um... I think you are mistaken unless I'm not seeing something. The only way it's bad (meaning the exile goes through) for Joseph to vote now would be if he lied and is scum with a vote or if we are both mayors rather than one of us being a drunk, the latter of which I think is a scenario we can practically ignore.
This sounds like you are assuming Joseph is the drunk and you are the mayor.

Sorry, been reading on mobile today and just saw this.

How? ...
First you say the only way a Joseph vote is bad is if he is lying/scum. That means you think he is the drunk. You qualify that by saying you could both be mayors, but you think that is very unlikely. You don't mention the scenario in which you are drunk and he is mayor. I realize that you are talking about bad outcomes, and it would be ok for Joseph to vote in that case (you drunk, him mayor). But all your responses to everything have been very thorough. I am wondering if you forgot about that possibility.

So now that I've laid it all out, the bolded does not logically follow at all. Of all the possible role combos, the only ones in which an exile goes through when Joseph votes is mayor!me + scum!Joseph and mayor!me + mayor!Joseph. That does not mean other combos are not possible, only that those other combos do not result in an exile and are thus safe. I did not forget about the drunk!me, mayor!him scenario like you suggested, as it falls into the category of "safe for Joseph to vote," and I specifically meant to only list the ones in which it was not safe, so I did not list it.

ppe 2

69
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 06, 2021, 12:02:40 pm »
I can understand the argument for Didds being scum. Though almost certainly, my vote shouldn't matter, unless neither Dylan nor me are drunk?

Your vote matters if one of you us scum.
True. I guess it'd be good information for me (as I'm not scum), but not for anyone else

Vote "count" 1.2:
Votes for EFHW: MiX
Votes for fang: EFHW
votes for MiX: Joseph2302
votes for WestCoastDidds: faust, gkrieg13, infangthief

not voting: Dylan32, jotheonah, scolapasta, Swowl, WestCoastDidds
(with 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to exile)

Reminder: Day 1 ends at 3:00pm EST on Tuesday, December 7th (that's just over 52 hours away)


Following through on what I said last night, Vote: Didds. That's either X-1 or X-3.

If Joseph votes now that will be pretty bad for us. Can you wait for Didds to have 2 votes?

Um... I think you are mistaken unless I'm not seeing something. The only way it's bad (meaning the exile goes through) for Joseph to vote now would be if he lied and is scum with a vote or if we are both mayors rather than one of us being a drunk, the latter of which I think is a scenario we can practically ignore.
This sounds like you are assuming Joseph is the drunk and you are the mayor.

Sorry, been reading on mobile today and just saw this.

How? ...
First you say the only way a Joseph vote is bad is if he is lying/scum. That means you think he is the drunk. You qualify that by saying you could both be mayors, but you think that is very unlikely. You don't mention the scenario in which you are drunk and he is mayor. I realize that you are talking about bad outcomes, and it would be ok for Joseph to vote in that case (you drunk, him mayor). But all your responses to everything have been very thorough. I am wondering if you forgot about that possibility.

Apparently what I'm seeing as the plan isn't as clear as I thought it was, so let me lay out the ELI5 version so we don't waste more time going through this rather than A) doing the thing and B) finding scum.

Situation: 6 needed to exile; two claimed mayors/drunks don't know which is which. As I've said, it's is probably safe to assume we have one of each, but the iterations of the test can confirm exactly which it is. I won't use names, because it really does not matter which of the two of us has which role, and my test intentionally leaves that ambiguous to hide that info from scum N1.

In another post, I explaned why I feel safe assuming that if Joseph is telling the truth, then we likely have one mayor and one drunk instead of two of each, with two mayors being by far the least likely setup. If you disagree with that assessment, say so, because that's a valid disagreement we could talk through and adjust for. Going forward in this post, I am assuming there are not two mayors, but if there are, Joseph and I voting at X-4 would trigger an exile.

Test Phase One: Vote a wagon to X-3. Player A and B (the two claimers) vote. It doesn't matter if the wagon is X, Y, Z, Drunk, Mayor, or X, Y, Z, Mayor, Drunk, it will be X-1. This is what meant when I said the only way a Joseph vote is bad is if he is lying scum (assuming we aren't both mayors).

If Joseph is town: If I'm drunk, the wagon is still at X-3, so mayor!Joseph makes it X-1 and drunk!Joseph keeps it at X-3. If I'm the mayor it's X-1, and as per my assumption above, drunk!Joseph votes and, and it's still X-1. No exile goes through. If Joseph is scum (and consequently has a regular vote): if I'm drunk, we are now at X-2, and if I'm mayor the exile happens.

So after the first test phase, the only way an exile can happen (aka the only way it would be bad for Joseph to vote for Didds if we don't intend for them to be the exile), is if Joseph is scum, so then town knows FOR SURE that one of us is scum and the other is mayor (and from my perspective I would be confirmed mayor since I know my alignment). Otherwise, we know that possible combinations are mayor/drunk or drunk/scum (I suppose from neutral perspective scum/scum is mathematically on the table still, but that can be ruled out using the individual test that had originally been brought up on one of us). Assuming no exile happened, proceed to phase two.

Phase Two: Random other player votes with what *should* be the hammer. If exile happens, there were exactly two votes between Joseph and I, which means we had one mayor and one drunk as expected and we are IC (unless you genuinely think Joseph and I BOTH fakeclaimed, in which case, test one of us individually to make it mathematically 100%). If no exile, go to phase 3.

Phase Three: One more person votes. If the exile happens, one of us (Joseph) lied and the other (me) is drunk. If no exile, we are both drunks, and the wagon is for sure at X-1.

If you don't understand, doubt, or disagree with anything, please be specific with your questions in relation to this, because I've been sick this weekend and it's totally possible I'm just not thinking or typing as clearly as I think I am lol.

ppe 4

70
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 06, 2021, 11:16:30 am »
I'm happy with handing them IC status.

And now I can't help chucking at the picture:
Dylan and Joseph take their seats at the front of the city council. "Right, so here we are, time for a new era. One of us is your Mayor, and one of us is drunk. We're not sure which. But together we will lead you into a new and brighter era for our city. Trust us."
Also, they are both mice.

I'd like to think it's more like one of us has a hidden drinking problem that nobody knows about and the other just picks up the slack without questioning it.

71
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 06, 2021, 11:10:22 am »
Hey MiX, can we get your opinion on the Didds wagon?

Your main argument for voting EFHW seems to be "she hasn't done anything"; the same is certainly true of Didds.

Sure, but Didds doesn't do much D1, right? EFHW does more.

Those are two relevant scenarios. Importantly, if an exile goes through, then scum knows your roles but we do not.

Also, if one of you is mayor and the other is drunk, voting now isn't good either. So I see no benefit of that vote.

Did you see this Dylan?

You mean if Joseph and I vote at X-3 and an exile goes through? Assuming that's what you meant, from my perspective that would mean I'm mayor and Joseph is scum; neutral view it's those two roles between the two of us. I've already said in other posts why us being one of each is exactly why we vote at X-3. Why don't you just lay out your ideal version of the plan, because honestly I'm just not seeing how we are missing each other on this...

72
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 06, 2021, 03:13:55 am »
Vote "count" 1.2:
Votes for EFHW: MiX
Votes for fang: EFHW
votes for MiX: Joseph2302
votes for WestCoastDidds: faust, gkrieg13, infangthief

not voting: Dylan32, jotheonah, scolapasta, Swowl, WestCoastDidds
(with 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to exile)

Reminder: Day 1 ends at 3:00pm EST on Tuesday, December 7th (that's just over 52 hours away)


Following through on what I said last night, Vote: Didds. That's either X-1 or X-3.

If Joseph votes now that will be pretty bad for us. Can you wait for Didds to have 2 votes?

Um... I think you are mistaken unless I'm not seeing something. The only way it's bad (meaning the exile goes through) for Joseph to vote now would be if he lied and is scum with a vote or if we are both mayors rather than one of us being a drunk, the latter of which I think is a scenario we can practically ignore.
This sounds like you are assuming Joseph is the drunk and you are the mayor.

Sorry, been reading on mobile today and just saw this.

How? No matter which role I am and which one Joseph is, the result of us voting together should be 2 votes, unless A) we are both mayors which like I said we might as well not worry about B) we are both drunks which I think we can ignore because of how much that would gimp town in my mind. Nothing in anything I said there assumes, implies, or relies on either of us having a specific role; it just lays out why we can relatively safely assume we are one of each and us voting together at X-3 D1 is safe unless he is scum. Further, I know (and didn’t say) that us voting safely here by itself proves us IC because if I’m drunk and he’s scum, it wouldn’t trigger an exile. Obviously someone would have to hammer to prove there were exactly 2 votes between us and that would prove the claims (most likely; a vote or two more would be needed if it’s scum + drunk or double drunk)

73
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 05, 2021, 11:32:36 pm »
Day 1 quickhammer seems unlikely. And we won't be sure about when it's X-1.

I'll see if there is more of a case to make on fang tomorrow.

Agree it’s probably not something that is likely to happen (but I will say if it does I’m not giving the person the benefit of the doubt that scum wouldn’t do it lol).

As long as Joseph is telling the truth, the two of us voting without triggering an exile would—in my mind—be overwhelmingly likely to be X-1, and the only other option would be that we are both drunks and nearly a fifth of the town is incapable of voting.

Had we not ended up all mayor PMs claim, I would agree it would be a lot risker, but at this point I feel pretty safe assuming we all have. If a different wagon runs up to X-3 I’d be willing to move to it instead of Didds.

74
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 05, 2021, 12:57:22 pm »
@Dylan, Can you point to your earlier comments on Didds? I looked but can't find them.

I didn’t say anything about Didds. I said if anyone hit X-3 today I would vote to start the process of proving Joseph and myself IC since that may not be a real option in the future.

75
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M136: Mouse Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 05, 2021, 11:12:05 am »
Vote "count" 1.2:
Votes for EFHW: MiX
Votes for fang: EFHW
votes for MiX: Joseph2302
votes for WestCoastDidds: faust, gkrieg13, infangthief

not voting: Dylan32, jotheonah, scolapasta, Swowl, WestCoastDidds
(with 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to exile)

Reminder: Day 1 ends at 3:00pm EST on Tuesday, December 7th (that's just over 52 hours away)


Following through on what I said last night, Vote: Didds. That's either X-1 or X-3.

If Joseph votes now that will be pretty bad for us. Can you wait for Didds to have 2 votes?

Um... I think you are mistaken unless I'm not seeing something. The only way it's bad (meaning the exile goes through) for Joseph to vote now would be if he lied and is scum with a vote or if we are both mayors rather than one of us being a drunk, the latter of which I think is a scenario we can practically ignore.

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