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Messages - SpaceAnemone

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3776
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« on: December 20, 2016, 08:15:34 pm »
Space Count

LL (1): JR
Calamitas (2): teamlyle, WW
Eevee (2): Robz, Space
Not voting (5): LL, Calamitas, Eevee, mcmc, paco


3777
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« on: December 20, 2016, 08:07:04 pm »
I've been re-reading late D1, and the exchange between Eevee and silver, which I'd not really paid attention to before. But given silver's flip and my intervening scum-points for Eevee, I think it's worth a vote: Eevee.

3778
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« on: December 20, 2016, 08:05:38 pm »
Yes, a claimed vig would (unless counterclaimed) be an IC. In regard to the multiple vig scenario, a setup with exactly 1 vig and at least 1 spirit is 79 times as likely as a scenario with at least 2 vigs and at least 1 spirit.
(Unless I have a fatal mistake in my code, will look into that tomorrow). So we shouldn't be too worried about having a multiple vig situation. (Not proposing anyone to claim though)

I make the factor to be about 77.6, so broad agreement there.
Good to hear someone else was also implementing it :D

I'd implemented asher9++ before, so it wasn't much of a tweak. It took me till tonight to get round to sorting out the last little corner I'd asked about before the game started, though, since I've been really busy lately.

Anyway, now you've got company in the land of obsessively theoretical people, how about you come and join reads-land too?

3779
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM38: Bonkers British Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 20, 2016, 07:30:56 pm »
Request prod on teamlyle

Prod sent

3780
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM38: Bonkers British Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 20, 2016, 07:15:20 pm »
Vote Count 1.8

Roadrunner (3): Archetype, LaLight, gkrieg
Awaclus (2): J Reggie, teamlyle
teamlyle (4): Witherweaver, Dylan, Awaclus, EFHW
gkrieg (2): faust, Roadrunner

Not Voting (1): Calamitas

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. Day 1 ends Wednesday 21st December at 1pm forum time.  That's in less than a day!

3781
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« on: December 20, 2016, 05:47:21 pm »
Yes, a claimed vig would (unless counterclaimed) be an IC. In regard to the multiple vig scenario, a setup with exactly 1 vig and at least 1 spirit is 79 times as likely as a scenario with at least 2 vigs and at least 1 spirit.
(Unless I have a fatal mistake in my code, will look into that tomorrow). So we shouldn't be too worried about having a multiple vig situation. (Not proposing anyone to claim though)

I make the factor to be about 77.6, so broad agreement there.

3782
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 20, 2016, 11:45:19 am »
SA sheeps, no explanation.

I gave my reason in a response to silver three posts later, so it's hardly an unexplained vote!

Robz agrees with my post about the disadvantages of lynching teamlyle

I feel like significant parts of Eevee's big post here can be read as buddying Robz!

Then there was this:
We can also probably say that if Robz is scum, J Reggie can't be, because that'd be just suicidal bussing for little reason, right? (J Reggie has just the one Robz vote)
plus
SA asks again if there is anyone on to start a new wagon. Not sure how I feel about this, as I really don't see any reason in silver's posts to change one's mind about him.
[/quote]

So Robz gets a town-vote from you for moving his vote in the run-up to a deadline, but I get suspicion for even talking about moving my own vote?

And no, silver hadn't said anything in the interim, but I'd lapsed a bit behind in my detailed reading of the game, as evidenced by the fact that I didn't find the vote-count mistake till long after it had happened, when I actually got long enough to sit and read through things properly.

I feel from your post that you're kind of skewing your narrative to fit a pre-existing conclusion, which I think deserves some scumpoints.


LaLight's jumping back and forth and making erratic statements about it seemed the most opportunistic to me, and Reggie hammering without giving silver a chance to claim was very anti-town (would he do that as scum?), but this seems like a tough wagon to analyze because so few people were against it, and because Calamitas's setup opinions kind of dominated the discussion, and sort of formed the opposite view to lynching silver. I was hoping I'd find more, but it is what it is.

We may as well credit the people who weren't on the wagon at any significant point, and that was WW and mcmc, plus Calamitas who was just refusing to play with actual reads.

Looking at the eventual wagon, it's kind of interesting that the scum decided to kill an on-wagon person. I mean, for the five still-alive people left, if we were to assume there were two scum on-wagon (which is usually quite a safe assumption), then some of us have a 50-50 chance of picking a scum randomly from the four other still-alive people on that wagon. I'd originally used that to conclude that the scums probably had two people off-wagon and are sitting there laughing at us self-destructing as town, but then I decided it's probably all wifom.

3783
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 2)
« on: December 20, 2016, 08:12:28 am »
Ah, I know this stuff was discussed before (around post #570), but I was kind of too side-tracked to be posting at that point, as my single post that evening shows :-P Did we ever check with faust that the UB can't just inherit the power of the next PR to die instead? I can see the game-mechanic reason for not having the UB take on the restless spirit power, because it doesn't end after death. But in my original reading of the rules, I think I assumed the UB would still stay intact as a UB on the death of a RS, not that they'd become a VT because of it.

If we had a UB in the game at the start, would that UB still inherit the power of the next PR to die, or would they now have been converted to a VT by the RS's flip?

3784
Forum Game Awards / Re: 2016 f.ds Mafia Game Awards: Nominations open!
« on: December 19, 2016, 07:44:13 am »
/tag for later :-)

3785
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 17, 2016, 09:09:20 pm »
Was Paco's vote for silver back at post #492 invalid? It never seems to have made it into Vote Count 1.5 (at post #514).

If it's not invalid somehow, then LL's vote at #543 would actually have been L-1, and Robz's at #583 would have been a hammer.
Does that sort of stuff count if there is a vote count in between? I think those are considered mod-confirmed, aren't they?

I'm not sure, hence the bolded question to get faust's attention. I've certainly seen players correct mods' counts a lot of times, so I know they're not set in stone. Paco himself commented that he'd thought he was already voting silver, but not till after count 1.6, when his original vote was just prior to count 1.5... The fact the error has persisted through two vote counts might be a bit problematic.

3786
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 17, 2016, 09:00:44 pm »
Was Paco's vote for silver back at post #492 invalid? It never seems to have made it into Vote Count 1.5 (at post #514).

If it's not invalid somehow, then LL's vote at #543 would actually have been L-1, and Robz's at #583 would have been a hammer.

3787
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 17, 2016, 08:41:31 pm »
What the hell are you talking about?

I feel like your tone has been getting a bit aggressive in your most recent few posts. Maybe I'm misreading because text is hard to interpret, but could you please be aware that that's how you're coming across?

3788
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 17, 2016, 07:15:01 pm »
So who else is online now and interested in trying to push something else through? It's just after midnight for me currently. I can be awake for about an hour more, maybe two, then I'll be asleep till after the deadline.

3789
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 17, 2016, 06:57:43 pm »
But in regard to the model, you are plain wrong here. The qualitative advantage of lynching teamlyle should be god damn obvious
I see there is a slight advantage if all other things are exactly as you assert. I just don't believe that's how it's most likely to play out.

it shouldn't require me writing AGI for you to believe that.
As an aside that's probably irrelevant to everyone else in the game, try looking up graphical models on wikipedia. When they don't have loops in the inference, they're trainable with a message-passing algorithm that's pretty much just an extension of the viterbi algorithm for hidden markov models. And they're powerful enough to model simple latent states without needing stupid amounts of training data. I think it would actually be quite fun to model Mafia games that way, but I simply don't have the time to parse all the past games in a way that produces good training data.

- The only info we don't get if we lynch teamlyle today is the silver flip
This may be true now, since it's almost too late for actual scum-hunting. But if you'd let this lie, or flooded the thread a but less, then actual scum-hunting could have taken place. While you've admitted that you're not good with D1 (nether am I!), there are others here who would have had to generate more content so as not to be seen as lurking, and that content would probably have been a much richer source of interactions if it wasn't just you and silver arguing against everyone on a technical point.

- Instead, we win the teamlyle flip and don't risk the downside of lynching town!silver (which is STILL THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO)
So you read silver as town. That's good. One read.

If you're really convinced that you're 100% right about how well you've got this figured out, and how townie you are, aren't you worried about painting a big target on yourself for scums? Wouldn't it be better to put reads out there just in case?

- By lynching teamlyle WE GAIN ANOTHER DAY
This holds equally if he's lynched D2 or vigged.

PPE 2

3790
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 17, 2016, 06:33:05 pm »
But anyways, do you really think I'm more likely to act like that as scum than town?

I think the marginal gain is higher as scum, because all you have to do is push logical set-up info and behave in a way that isn't going to give anyone any alignment info. And I think the reasons your model is flawed are subtle enough that's it's trivial to act like you clearly believe it, because it's a reasonable first-order approximation. But I think your model is not complex enough to fit observed Mafia game behaviour, so I don't trust it as the sole basis on which to pin almost all of the lynch discussion for D1.

If you show me a generative model of player behaviour that fits observed Mafia games, with latent variables allowing complexity of the sort that captures individual play styles, and can prove that under that sort of a model, your lynch play still has the edge, then I'm much more likely to believe you. As is, I think you're missing too many subtleties, and not even considering a distribution over likely end-states in your computations, so I can easily believe that you're smarter than this and just pushing your simple model in a scummy way.

3791
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 17, 2016, 06:23:25 pm »
Okay, back again now that my party guests have all gone.

I don't feel so good about the silver lynch, TBH :-(

Calamitas is like a broken record a bit.. I'm actually tempted to move my vote to him, in that playing the probabilities to the exclusion of any form of scum-hunting and dominating/derailing the conversation is actually not pro-town when it comes to looking for more alignment stuff on later days. Would there be enough people awake and interested in that for a switch to be a possibility?

Calamitas, if you were to postpone the idea of lynching teamlyle to D2, and trying to go after scum for D1 instead, what does your lynch pool look like? (Yes, I understand the reasons why you feel this is the less informative way round to operate etc etc... I just want to know anyway).

3792
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« on: December 17, 2016, 06:04:46 pm »
Vote Count 3.0

Not Voting (5): Dylan, Joseph, Roadrunner, IDPTG, faust

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch. Day 3 starts now and ends at 6pm forum time on Saturday 24th December.

3793
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 3)
« on: December 17, 2016, 06:03:45 pm »
A little later, Space was two games of Set up, and about to take the third game. Haddock decided the afternoon was decompressing well, so obviously, the next thing to do was to have some real fun.

"Right... There's just no way this is going to go well for me. How about some Dominion?" It wasn't so much a question as a declaration of intent, so as soon as Space grabbed the final Set game point, he fetched the Dominion cards down from the bookcase. Of course, in expanding the tabletop space enough to lay Dominion out properly, he had to tidy away a few more of Space's lists, and he decided stacking them safely in a corner where Space wouldn't need to dwell on them might actually be for the best...

LaLight has been killed in the night. He was Social and Societal Obligations, the Doctor.

Thread unlocked!

3794
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 17, 2016, 12:15:15 pm »
Sorry I'm not keeping up with the game very well -- I've got rather too many things going on just now :-( Like, I'm in the middle of hosting a party right now, but it's the only time I could find to get on the forum!

@anyone who is currently not voting teamlyle:

1. Do you agree that lynching teamlyle now is strictly better in every scenario where we face MyLo at some point?

2. With what confidence can you say your top scumread is actual scum?

3. With what confidence can you say teamlyle is town?

4. Do you agree that a dead teamlyle is at least as good as a live teamlyle scenario in regard to endgame scenarios?

If you cannot answer question 1 and 4 please (re-)read my analysis posts in regard to teamlyle

1) I'm undecided on this, because what you fail to model in your assertions is how the lack of information from flips, gut-reads and player interactions.

2) Low.

3) ~80% maybe?

Oops.. gotta go.. more guests arriving!

3795
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 16, 2016, 07:11:38 pm »
As silver and I previously pointed out, a dead Restless-Spirit is actually an asset, not a drawback (in comparison to a live player) in terms of endgame chances.

This is true if the game reaches the specific configurations you outlined. You're both entirely failing to take into consideration how the act of deliberately lynching non-town affects the probability of reaching that sort of a state in the first place.

Also, do you two agree that lynching scum would be better if we can achive that D1?

3796
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Night 2)
« on: December 16, 2016, 05:43:26 pm »
A sheaf of Space's mortgage statements fell victim to further table-top clearing, as the Set game got underway...

Calamitas has been lynched. He was Mortgage and Home Maintenance, the Vanilla Townie.

Night 2 begins now and ends between 24 hours and 36 hours from now. Night actions are due in 23 hours.

Thread Locked!


3797
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 2)
« on: December 16, 2016, 05:41:40 pm »
Vote Count 2.final

Calamitas (4): Joseph, Dylan, LaLight, Roadrunner
Joseph (2): Calamitas, IDontPlayThisGame
IDontPlayThisGame (1): faust

With 7 alive, it took 4 to lynch.

3798
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 2)
« on: December 16, 2016, 01:38:24 pm »
Vote Count 2.6

Calamitas (3): Joseph, Dylan, LaLight
Joseph (2): Calamitas, IDontPlayThisGame
IDontPlayThisGame (1): faust
faust (1): Roadrunner

Not Voting (2):

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 2 ends at 3pm forum time, i.e. in around 82 minutes' time.

In the event of no mods being online at the deadline (which is looking possible), 3pm forum time will be taken as a strict cut-off for the posted votes.


3799
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M90: Literature Mafia (Day 1)
« on: December 16, 2016, 12:17:26 pm »
I think trying to exploit a PR is a towny thing to do.

I think trying to puzzle out the rules and look for exploits is a Calamitas thing to do (and also a SpaceAnemone thing), but it's not actually that indicative of alignment. It's perfectly possible for town to have big disagreements on how to exploit game mechanics (look at me and e in Worms!), so if there's a scum player who sees a benefit for their faction in pushing one particular direction through their own internal analysis, there's probably a townie-looking argument to use to push for it in this sort of situation.

3800
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Newbie Mafia 9: Grown-up Mafia (Day 2)
« on: December 16, 2016, 12:00:52 pm »
Vote Count 2.5

Calamitas (2): Joseph, Dylan
Joseph (1): Calamitas
IDontPlayThisGame (2): faust, LaLight

Not Voting (2): IDontPlayThisGame, Roadrunner

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. Day 2 ends at 3pm forum time, i.e. in 3 hours' time.

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