I would like to see an article on this, actually, but I don't think I'm the person to write it.
Much more often than not, in Dominion, you know exactly what your opponent is up to. Did he open 5/2 and buy a Minion? He's probably going to be going Minion-heavy. Did he open a Potion with only 1 Potion cost card available? He's probably going to buy a few of that card.
Knowing what your opponent is doing allows you to respond appropriately. Embargo that Potion-cost card, for example. He's working on a slower strategy? Duchies/Dukes should be able to get more points than his Provinces then. He's building a mega-Engine that will buy all the Provinces on turn 9? Probably something different, then.
Often times you don't have a choice but to reveal your entire gameplan up front. But there are certain things you can do. One of the simplest; if your plan is to open Silver / some $3; always take the Silver first. Vineyards and Dukes are another case where keeping your opponent in the dark can help. Here's a game where I go for Vineyards:
http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120531-160408-90d306d3.htmlI don't buy any Potion until turn 14; and when I do I buy 3 all at once. Suddenly, my opponent knows exactly what I'm doing. But up until that point; I could be just going for Provinces for all he knows. Had he known I was going for Vineyards; he probably could have bought a couple Potions of his own to block me out and make the game go longer.
So, this isn't an article because that's all I've got. Looking for input from others on these questions:
1. What other ways are there to hide your strategy?
2. How much / how often does it really matter?
2a. Is it worth enough that you are sometimes willing to delay your strategy to keep it secret? (I doubt you'd pass up a Minion when planning Minions just to make your opponent think you aren't going Minions; but you might if it could lead to a double-Minion turn later.)
3. How much of the game's skill is discerning what your opponent is doing when he's not making it obvious? Would it give you much of an edge if you were good at telling what he's planning before he executes it?
