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76

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 06, 2013, 02:28:03 am »

The thing is that I didn't really believe sudgy's vote was for pressure. "For pressure" read to me like a belated justification he came up with to avoid scrutiny. Now, I think I've occasionally lied as town to provide a justification for something I did after I realize what I did was not so hot. And hojnestly MAYBE that's what sudgy did.

I have vague memories of town!sudgy making numerous Day 1 "pressure" votes in LOTR2, and being very candid about it.  I'd have to doublecheck, but that's something I associate with town!sudgy's recent play.

77

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 06, 2013, 02:19:19 am »

Oh, past 2 a.m.  I'll look back at faust's posts after some sleep. 

78

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 06, 2013, 02:17:45 am »

I'll reread faust's posts.  I had "no explanation" in my head but I guess "secret explanation" should supplant that. 

79

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 06, 2013, 02:13:51 am »

What do you make of it?

I'm thinking there may be at least one scum in your wagon.  Regardless of whether you yourself are scum or town.

Voting were, in order: myself, 2.7, Eevee, faust, and sudgy.  I know I'm town.  I'm inclined to give 2.7 a Day 1 pass that is partly "new player" status and partly "active contributor" status.  Eevee's vote was jokey in a way I associate with town!Eevee.  sudgy said his vote was for "pressure" and unvoted; I disagree that his play there is optimal, but have come to understand that town!sudgy approaches the game differently from I do, and I can see town!sudgy acting as he did.

So that leaves faust.

Vote: faust

PPE:  2.  Just looking at the vote, I see Robz and I reach different conclusions.  Posting this first then going back to read Robz's thoughts in detail.

80

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 06, 2013, 01:53:58 am »

Re: Voltaire claiming:  fair enough.  I'm still not entirely convinced early Doc claiming is the best plan, but I get how it's at least a reasonable plan.  And any further discussion of the issue is academic now.

Robz, what are your thoughts on the L-2 wagon on you?

Who, if anyone, didn't comment at all on the "should Doc claim" question?

81

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 10:37:14 pm »

OK, I've had all I can take of mafiascum for a while. 

The one consistent thing I've gleaned from there is that a claimed Doc is generally a Doc who lives until one scumteam is dead. 

82

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 10:32:23 pm »

Open 321 has two town players fakeclaiming scum.

83

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 10:31:27 pm »

Open 256 is interesting.  Doctor claimed Day 4, after five VT's and an Ice Goon had died.  Town lynched Fire Goons back-to-back and the Doctor died thereafter, whereupon town lynched the last Ice Goon for the win. 

One player who was VT pushed at the start of Day 3 for the Doctor to claim.  Most players disagreed, including three of the four scum. 

The Doctor didn't actually stop any nightkills over the course of the game.  Well, one night he would have - except both scumteams targeted the same person he targeted, cancelling each other out anyway.

84

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 10:13:07 pm »

I realized, we can rule out all people saying the doc claiming is good of being the doc...

1.  Why do you think this?
2.  Why did you say it?

85

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 10:12:31 pm »

So bizarre.  Open 309 had the unclaimed Doctor die Night 1 to a random scumkill (while protecting the other scumteam's kill).  Why so bizarre?  Because that's one of the few games Town went on to win.

86

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 10:05:11 pm »

Open 434 is kinda hilarious.  The game opened with a player claiming VT.  He was scum, and was the last person alive, winning the game.

Also, that player's scumpartner got pushed to claim on Day 1, and fakeclaimed Doc.  He was lynched Day 2.  I haven't gone through everything yet, but I'm assuming the real Doc counterclaimed him then.  (As the real Doc died as soon as the opposing scumteam was annihilated.)

87

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 09:59:51 pm »

Open 434 is kinda hilarious.  The game opened with a player claiming VT.  He was scum, and was the last person alive, winning the game.

88

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 09:57:12 pm »

And just went through another game where they were very vocal about doc not claiming and one of the mafia one. Not saying that it was caused by that, but it appears that no claiming seems to be the norm that they arrived at in the two games I looked at, but it appeared to be based off the status quo that claiming was bad as they didn't really delve into whether it was good or bad the way we have.

PS: I looked at the two most recent games.

I just looked through the game you mention here (Open 476).  Town lynched Ice mafia on Day 1; the Doctor stopped a kill Night 1; the Doctor claimed Day 2; town lynched the other Ice mafia Day 2; the Doctor, of course, died Night 2; town lynched Fire Mafia Day 3... and then kept on mislynching until the last Fire Mafia won.

I do note that one of the most vocal opponents to the idea of the Doctor claiming was one of the Ice mafia goons.  And then after the Doctor claimed on Day 2, that opponent was lynched (and flipped scum) that same day.

89

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 09:47:19 pm »

Has anyone, perchance, looked at the mafiascum plays of this setup to see how they handled the Doctor claiming/not claiming?  And how that worked out for them?  I haven't had time, but I know multiple games are linked in the wiki entry for Fire and Ice.

reading those games is horrible. Like headache inducing horrible...

the one game I just glanced through (town win) didn't discuss it. One player seems to have been very against it and the town doc was killed night3 (having a successful protection night2). ice and fire shot each other to give town the win...

Which game was that?  The last one listed?

90

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 09:45:33 pm »

How much is the IC worth when there's literally only one of them in a sea of 13 players?

You ask a lot of questions.  Any answers to offer up?

Also, I think scum!Volt does that way more than town!Volt.  FYI.

I always ask a lot of questions.  And I think they're important questions to consider.  I'm trying to work through them myself.

I think town!Voltgloss makes more statements of opinion, though.

There will be no shortage of opinions once my questions are answered.

91

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 09:38:02 pm »

How much is the IC worth when there's literally only one of them in a sea of 13 players?

You ask a lot of questions.  Any answers to offer up?

Also, I think scum!Volt does that way more than town!Volt.  FYI.

I always ask a lot of questions.  And I think they're important questions to consider.  I'm trying to work through them myself.

92

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 09:32:15 pm »

On the flip side, we do only have one week, which is unfortunately short.  Like, if we had two weeks instead, we could much more easily implement lio's plan.  But we don't have two weeks.  And the Doctor claiming is a time-saving measure.

Has anyone, perchance, looked at the mafiascum plays of this setup to see how they handled the Doctor claiming/not claiming?  And how that worked out for them?  I haven't had time, but I know multiple games are linked in the wiki entry for Fire and Ice.

93

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 09:29:20 pm »

Well you got played, but I still think you were a major thorn in our side in that game... as were other virtual ICs, Jorbles and and Ahoppy.

Galz said my play was terrible and I trust his judgment.  I'm not even being sarcastic here in the slightest.

Another issue here is that in this game - unlike the other recent games with ICs in them - we can't possibly get any more ICs.  As Robz says, there were two other ICs/virutal ICs in M31, and it's the presence of multiple ICs that really make things difficult for scum.  Same deal in mcmc's game, where other power roles existed who could have and/or eventually did become ICs.

But here, we get one, and no more than one.  How much is the IC worth when there's literally only one of them in a sea of 13 players?

94

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 09:23:21 pm »

But the real problem is this. If we say that we won't lynch someone unless we give them a chance to claim--out of fear of lynching the doc--we give scum an out. all they have to do is not be online during the last bit of the lynch (this in itself is a bit scummy, but can't be helped because people have real lives) and they won't get lynched because they won't be around to potentially claim Doctor.

Having the doctor claim now alleviates that problem. In fact I think it is great because from that point on, no one can claim anything ever... No more "L-1, I think I might hammer, you had better claim" crap.

This is also a valid point in favor of the Doctor claiming now. 

95

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 09:21:31 pm »

I, for one, do not want to waste my time suspecting people who I don't have to suspect.  You know how awesome it is to spend four IRL days working up a wagon on someone just to get to L-1 and have them claim Doctor without a counterclaim, and the have to scramble to find someone else to lynch so we don't deadline out?  ABSOLUTELY NOT AWESOME is how much.

This is a legitimate concern.  So is the argument that the Doc claiming now actually makes him more likely to survive - during these early days.

The question is, do those benefits outweigh the negatives of the Doctor claiming?  The main one being that, once on scumteam is dead, the remaining scum will absolutely kill off the Doctor.  I mean, why the hell wouldn't they?

It's certainly true that an IC can be a powerful asset, but it can also be a real detriment to town if successfully misled by scum.  Look no further than my own terrible play in M31.  I dunno, maybe everyone who played in mcmc's game came out of that very impressed with the IC role, whereas I am a lot less enamored with it.  :p

96

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 05:00:07 pm »

Quotefail.  Let's try that again.

I just read this D1 a little closer, and stumbled upon this:

Though, here's a caveat I just thought of:  if scum are trying to shoot opposing scum, the claimed doctor is the last person they want to target early on.  Because he is the LEAST likely to actually be opposing scum.

So I can see a claimed doctor surviving all the up until one scumteam is wiped out.  At that point, though, they are marked for death.

Great point that I missed.  Definitely helps narrow scum's kill pool at night if they are shooting for the other team.  (Hint: they should be.)

Interesting. If ash was scum, he would have certainly thought about the consequences of his plan for scum, and he says here that he hasn't done that. So is there a reason to withhold that thought for scum!ash? I don't think so. This gives me a town read on ash.

This dovetails with my "is ash who doesn't carefully read the setup pregame town!ash or scum!ash" question.  I haven't yet had the chance to research this.  I do agree it tends towards townpoints for ash, unless there is precedent for scum!ash faking a less-than-thorough read of the setup.

97

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 04:59:28 pm »

I just read this D1 a little closer, and stumbled upon this:

Though, here's a caveat I just thought of:  if scum are trying to shoot opposing scum, the claimed doctor is the last person they want to target early on.  Because he is the LEAST likely to actually be opposing scum.

So I can see a claimed doctor surviving all the up until one scumteam is wiped out.  At that point, though, they are marked for death.

Great point that I missed.  Definitely helps narrow scum's kill pool at night if they are shooting for the other team.  (Hint: they should be.)

This dovetails with my "is ash who doesn't carefully read the setup pregame town!ash or scum!ash" question.  I haven't yet had the chance to research this.  I do agree it tends towards townpoints for ash, unless there is precedent for scum!ash faking a less-than-thorough read of the setup.

Interesting. If ash was scum, he would have certainly thought about the consequences of his plan for scum, and he says here that he hasn't done that. So is there a reason to withhold that thought for scum!ash? I don't think so. This gives me a town read on ash.

98

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 04:56:44 pm »

My vote was mainly for pressure, and Robz has had time to respond, so Unvote.

But not everyone has had time to respond.

When voting for pressure reasons, seeing how the person you're voting reacts is only part of the equation.  The other part is how does everyone else react. 

Especially in this game, where we're dealing with two-person scumpairs, seeing who reacts in what way to pressure being placed on others is a vital piece of the puzzle in figuring out scumteams.  Say a scumplayer is lynched or nightkilled.  The question is then, "Who's his partner?"  And we can help answer that question by reviewing who reacted - and how - to pressure having been placed on that scumplayer while they were alive.

99

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 04:51:08 pm »

Explanations from Voltgloss and sudgy still needed then. And Voltgloss's is more of an update as he had a reason to start with.

My reason remains unchanged.  At this point, I haven't yet seen a reason to move my vote.

100

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXXIII: Toy Story Mafia (GAME IS ON DAY 1 START!!)

« on: November 05, 2013, 04:49:16 pm »

Well, I'm at L-2. That's interesting.

Agreed.