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101

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 11, 2020, 12:20:27 pm »

@faust, reading this, can you explain how you thought MiX could assume 15 cost for an order power?

He made a wrong assumption and ran with it. Seems very MiX.

I could easily see that if all scum order powers cost 15 for Mix to erroneously assume that all order powers are 15.

This is quite literally impossible, I just looked at all the surges and scum must have powera that don't cost 15. So, what do you think was the origin of my mistake?

Again, I don't know. I thought this might be a reasonable way to get there, but I didn't check. I think it's equally unlikely that somehow all the scum stuff costs 15. I think you just were confused and mixed up some numbers, there doesn't need to be a huge reasoning behind it.

While I agree that the style of the claim seems very MiXish, I still think there should still be a valid reason for an assumption. In this case, I fail to see it:

Assuming he has access to 5 powers, then it can't be that since there's no combo of 5 that are all 15. So then next, it's the one extra order power - who makes an assumption off 1 example??

But if I say to you this story: "scum talk N1, learn that all their order special powers cost 15. One of them observes, hmmm, looks like all order special power could cost 15 (or something like that), and then for one of them to scumslip" - I mean that should at least sound plausible no?

The fact that you don't agree that this is at least a reason to be suspicious of MiX is weird. The fact that you didn't check if it was actually reasonable with any combo of 5 before suggesting that is weird.

I get that I could be following a red herring. But to be so dismissive of this - including "this is bad" seems itself suspicious.

I'm actually very much looking forward to Jim's read of MiX, to see if he (or frankly anyone) has opinions on this.

this is good. i like this from scolapasta.

102

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 10, 2020, 11:46:38 pm »

How did you choose which players to neighbors, Eddie?

103

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 10, 2020, 04:03:05 pm »

LL? Really?

I would be ok with MiX.

Of course you would.

Are you ever going to explain why exactly you think I’m scum?

Are you ever going to explain why exactly I should think you're town?

Does it matter what you think, if you don't let us into your thought process?

104

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 10, 2020, 03:52:33 pm »

LL? Really?

I would be ok with MiX.

What about Jimmmmm?

105

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 10, 2020, 02:56:15 pm »

If we lynch Eddie tonight then I burned my IC for nothing.

We need him to live through the first highstorm.

Also, this first sentence is what marks say when they're being scammed.

"If I back out of this sure plan to make $2000 now, I'll be down the $10 I've already invested!"

106

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 10, 2020, 02:53:45 pm »

If we lynch Eddie tonight then I burned my IC for nothing.

We need him to live through the first highstorm.

we also need you to live that long too, correct?

107

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 10, 2020, 02:39:28 pm »

vote: Eddie

My guess: Eddie doesn't want this plan because it makes him a prime nightkill target. Understandable, if he does not win with the town. I am so fine with lynching a survivor-esque role.

108

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 10, 2020, 02:03:51 pm »

If it ain't Eddie, vote: Greathallscout

I want to bring up a key point that I think may have been lost.

Read this progression. Here, GHS clearly implies that his townread on joth has something to do with joth's sincerity regarding no-lynching.

These are my current thoughts as a reread people. not all at once since theres so many. so i will update. And it helps me get clarity with so many people.

Mix, joth(i think their no-lynch seemed sincere even though i disagree) and Cavie seems the most town to me.

Then, when I bring up that this is not a good reason to townread joth, he pivots:

mmm vote: GreatHallScout

this feels like a faked readlist

1) the sincerity of joth's no lynch suggestion is a poor reason to townread him. after all, he has stated that he posted it to fish for reactions.

1) I must've missed where joth said they did it for reactions. I wasn't saying that's why i think they are town just that i didn't think it was scummy. i think he is town mostly because he directly pointed out the "game design flaw"

Why this pivot? It doesn't make sense to me from a town standpoint. faust has dismissed this concern as standard noobishness, but I disagree. Why would town give one reason for townreading someone, then switch to a different one, and, crucially, deny that they were ever townreading joth for the first reason in the first place?

This thought process, to me, reeks of scum deciding "Yes, this is my fake read on someone" and then changing the reasons for the read when challenged, because he has already decided on a read that he wishes to present.

His explanation for why he did this doesn't clear things up for me:

1)I probably could have phrased it better- i guess i thought it was obvious why I thought joth was town since other people responded that they were town after the house-issue. I felt the need to explain why i thought i didnt care too much for the No lynch since some players seemed it was bad enough to think he is scum(that was the parentheses part).

It just sounds like more made-up justification. "I thought it was obvious why I thought joth was town" is just a wild thing to say, in particular. in context. Think about what this means.

He's saying he thought it was so obvious that he was townreading joth for pointing out the game design flaw, that he didn't need to state that in his readlist. Not only that, he thought his reasons were so obvious, that he could put something else in parentheses, after joth's name, and that the reader would somehow know that the stuff in parentheses was not evidence for his townread.

This is just too much. I don't believe this explanation. He just pivoted and got confused because his townread wasn't genuine. He's scum.

109

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 10, 2020, 01:39:57 pm »

So, Glooble: Do you think we can use Eddie to relay information to you? Or is that too dangerous?

I'm pretty sure we can trust him to do that. I need to ask the mods a question in my QT which might make me more sure.

So we should all claim to Eddie, who then gives these claims to you, and we can solve the game?

How is this different from us just all agreeing to full claim in the thread?

That the only people that would know everyone's roles is Uncle and Glooble.

But faust's right. This is a broken setup if this is the case. I'm sure Uncle can disrupt this. He may be third-party, but we know nothing about how he wins.

Okay, that makes sense.

I think I'm in for trying it, though.

110

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 10, 2020, 01:24:29 pm »

So, Glooble: Do you think we can use Eddie to relay information to you? Or is that too dangerous?

I'm pretty sure we can trust him to do that. I need to ask the mods a question in my QT which might make me more sure.

So we should all claim to Eddie, who then gives these claims to you, and we can solve the game?

How is this different from us just all agreeing to full claim in the thread?

111

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 10, 2020, 10:12:55 am »

request prod on Greathallscout, it's been 3 days

112

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 10, 2020, 02:11:18 am »

Vote: Didds

She scumslipped.

post 800?

Indeed.

I think I see what you see, but I'm not convinced it's a slip? At least, if we see the same thing, that's gonna change some assumptions.

113

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 10, 2020, 02:07:44 am »

Vote: Didds

She scumslipped.

post 800?

114

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 10, 2020, 01:56:57 am »

Swowl I think we just fundamentally disagree on night action tactics; I think the vig is priced too high to be particularly useful to town here.

I'm unsure why you think it particularly matters if scum knows who the vig is.

115

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 10, 2020, 01:44:42 am »

What did he want to know?

Information in exchange of services. The rest is private.

This is also how it was originally framed when my QT started with him. If he started the same way, he might have offered you a very specific piece of information.  I'm not asking either of you to share the info, but did he tell you that info?

Knowing what I guess the 3 of us know, you know you could get him back and claim. So if you think that it's truly in town's best interest, you could still do so unless whoever he visited after leaving me (which happened before I brought it up in the game thread) already has. I'm still not sure (pending the risks I mentioned earlier, whether they're likely or not) that I should be the one to do it.

You are vastly overestimating the importance of your role. For town, your order is the weakest in the game.

Here we agree.

116

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 09, 2020, 08:29:37 pm »

Dustbringers can compose a message up to 500 characters that the mod will include in bold in their next post. If I had been on and seen Faust's post before more people had already went along with the plan, I'd have pushed back against it. As it is, I would have been able to tell if people lied once they fake claimed it once they couldn't actually use this ability. I guess it would have been hard to communicate that without claiming anyway, so I don't know. I'm pretty salty and don't think people would have gone along with that if anyone other than Faust proposed it... Also, there are 2 surges that give access to the vig surge and to the ninja/drain surge. Why not just have all 3 surges claim. I get that ninja vig would be really bad, but it takes quite a few spheres to do each, and it would likely take long enough to have both available the same night (including having to steal) that it wasn't likely to happen, at the very least not for a few days.

This was a contradiction when I saw it and it's a contradiction now.

Dylan what's your win condition?

Vote: Dylan

I don't see what you see as a contradiction. I did say surge when I meant order, but if I had used the right word, then there was no contradiction there.

But there's no "ninja/drain" surge. There's a vig/drain surge, and a ninja surge. And a Dustbringer would know that.

Wait, you think Dylan is lying about being a dust bringer?

117

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 09, 2020, 05:32:05 pm »

@Cayvie: I’m a bit surprised that you see that as a good tactic after our champs game where our abusing of the public town core gave us a sweep.

Have you seen it in effect at MU working out for town as well?

Rhand, I think it is a strategy that will likely work much better with a higher level of overall quality of participation.

I have seen it work, though not in champs qualifiers. I suspect it will be the dominant strategy in semis.

118

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 09, 2020, 05:25:07 pm »

I don't see why cayvie can't throw shade and not scumread Dylan at the same time. I'm also fairly confident Dylan didn't have 50 infused spheres so he couldn't do anything useful anyway. I don't understand why people are scumreading Dylan besides not fullclaiming to Uncle (because that I would understand). He claimed, he spent stormlight, scum does it too...it feels like it's obfuscating anyone from having a real read on him.

Not claiming to Eddie is by miles the bestest alignment indicating thing that happened all game.

Plus cayvie was suspecting me for throwing shade at her and not scumreading her, would be a little disingenuous if she did the same thing.

What? I was suspecting you for throwing shade at me in response to my case on GHS.

Felt like you were defending GHS by discrediting the attacker, instead of engaging with the case on GHS.

119

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 09, 2020, 02:41:52 pm »

Also, I think cayvie's reaction to Dylan's claim was kind of strange, they bring up some good questions about how and why Dylan claimed but don't scumread him for it because of the use of spheres to make the mod-posted message. I admit I also found the claim more towny than maybe I should have because of that message, though.

What's strange about my reaction?

I identified that future use of the Dustbringer Reporter ability could be used amongst a scumteam to fakeclaim Dustbringer if they wanted to for some reason. But I find it exceedingly unlikely that this is what happened with Dylan, today. That would take some intense scum planning for dubious benefit.

120

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 09, 2020, 02:36:57 pm »

So it's an issue for you when I change my townreads on people, and you also accuse me of confirmation bias... Kinda sounds like a double bind, no?

It not an issue if you change reads. I use lists of towny people to narrow the lynchpool in large games like this, and then I kind of don't look back too much on the people I already excluded I think from context it's now clear that you were not doing that, but then I'm not sure I see the value of posting those reads at all.

tbh i'm trying to do what you describe because mafiauniverse really pushes towncoring hard and im trying to practice it. but uh i'm not used to thinking about the game this way and i'm still getting a handle on it.

What is towncoring?

MiX said it wrong.

Towncoring is a game-long strategy and outlook. It involves searching for mutual strong townreads, and using those to find a towncore of people who all mutually townread each other. Once you have that, everyone outside the core is considered the "Process of Elimination" or POE group and you lynch inside the POE.

The towncore's goal is to expand (by forming consensus that more and more players are town). There is a point at which the towncore reaches a certain size that, if it is accurate, victory becomes inevitable: the entire POE can be lynched one day at a time, and wolves are among it.

The issue is that so-called "deep wolves" can sneak into the towncore and stay there. So the issue can be, at some point, the towncore may start to doubt itself. And the decision becomes whether to stick to their guns and continue lynching the POE, or to reconsider the validity of the existing towncore.

121

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 09, 2020, 02:01:18 am »

So it's an issue for you when I change my townreads on people, and you also accuse me of confirmation bias... Kinda sounds like a double bind, no?

It not an issue if you change reads. I use lists of towny people to narrow the lynchpool in large games like this, and then I kind of don't look back too much on the people I already excluded I think from context it's now clear that you were not doing that, but then I'm not sure I see the value of posting those reads at all.

tbh i'm trying to do what you describe because mafiauniverse really pushes towncoring hard and im trying to practice it. but uh i'm not used to thinking about the game this way and i'm still getting a handle on it.

122

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 08, 2020, 11:04:18 pm »

I feel I should clarify, since there's been confusion.

Confirmation bias is basically a synonym for tunneling, to me. It's when you latch onto a belief and only see the evidence that supports it, and ignore anything against it.

So that's how I use the phrase. If that's not what faust meant, then I misinterpreted him.

123

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 08, 2020, 10:52:24 pm »

But right now, I think we should just Lynch Eddie. Don't want a traitor joining scum. Feels like we'll have to lunch him eventually anyway so why not now?

vote: eddie

124

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 08, 2020, 10:50:30 pm »

Yes YES the tiger is out!
EFHW: Lean scum. Mostly gut at this point. I’ve never seen town EFHW, but she feels the same as she did in Ashersky’s game.
faust: Lean scum. He started out strong. However, he’s been throwing really persistent shade in my direction lately. No suspicion, per se, just trying to imply that my reads and play are not to be trusted. (see the end of #325, then it ramped up in #526, #582). What’s the change? I think it’s my case on GHS. I suspect faust is doing the “defend one buddy while attacking another buddy” tactic, and GHS is the buddy he is defending. (Who’s he attacking? EFHW). I also think he is a little more derisive toward people in general this game than I’ve seen him be; using his charisma to create an acidic atmosphere that is non-conducive to town finding each other and trusting each other.
GreatHallScout: Scum. That readlist, man.

How seriously are you calling out a 3-man team here?

I mean I believe everything I'm saying.

I would think a team of 3 would be pretty small for a game this size. But I wouldn't be shocked if those three were buds together.

How confident am I? Not that confident in the whole team. Most confident in GHS, which is why my vote is on him. Let's say I'd bet that GHS is scum if I got 2:1 odds or better.

125

Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM56: Stormlight Archive Mafia (Day 1)

« on: June 08, 2020, 06:24:33 pm »

PPE: He read you as scum because you were scummmmmmmmyyyyyyy.

Nevermind I misinterpreted what you said, withdrawn.

But you were scummmmmmmyyyyyyyyyyyyy, no idea what faust thought.

Mix it's well established that you beat me 1-1 pretty much every time lol