76
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Strictly Better
« on: June 17, 2019, 06:53:00 pm »
Another thought: is being forced to choose Stash's position in the shuffle strictly better than not having any choice?
Show Posts
This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.
77
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Strictly Better
« on: June 17, 2019, 06:49:29 pm »
I don't really care about the definition of "strictly better", I just enjoy thinking of rules or edge-cases that other people haven't yet mentioned. Don't we all?
Another strict improvement: Being a bane card--except online, where there's an information leak.
In theory, a card could be strictly better if it gave you more information, e.g. look through your discard pile, or have your opponent discard cards one at a time (so you can see them) instead of all at once.
Another strict improvement: Being a bane card--except online, where there's an information leak.
In theory, a card could be strictly better if it gave you more information, e.g. look through your discard pile, or have your opponent discard cards one at a time (so you can see them) instead of all at once.
78
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Strictly Better
« on: June 17, 2019, 12:08:10 pm »
Coffers can be bad if you want to play Swashbuckler without getting the treasure chest.
79
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Male and female cards (again)
« on: April 05, 2019, 01:18:10 am »
While you're identifying headdresses, what about the headdress in Donate? Or is that her hair?
80
Simulation / Re: BM + Flag Bearer
« on: April 03, 2019, 07:03:43 pm »Nope, tried that too.Then it seems like an obvious improvement of the strategy to add a rule to buy the LAST flag bearer even if you already have the flag (and maybe even add a penultimate Flag bearer rule?).That raises the question: How would the results differ with 9 or 11 Flag Bearers in the kingdom?It also seems that if either player stops buying Flag Bearers before the pile is out, then that player loses.More specifically, if there are 10 flag bearers, then the player who gets first flag loses 7%/90%. If there are 9 flag bearers, then the player who gets first flag wins 81%/14%.
So yes, the majority of the effect in this case, is who ends up with the flag in the long run.
The last Flag Bearer is much more important than the first when contested, unless the pile isn't emptied before the very end.
I also tried a strategy that opens Flag Bearer, and tries to snag an extra one so that it keeps the flag when the pile is out. This helps, but still worse than not opening Flag Bearer.The best I can do with this strategy is a 15% win rate.
81
Simulation / Re: BM + Flag Bearer
« on: April 03, 2019, 11:10:44 am »That raises the question: How would the results differ with 9 or 11 Flag Bearers in the kingdom?
It also seems that if either player stops buying Flag Bearers before the pile is out, then that player loses.More specifically, if there are 10 flag bearers, then the player who gets first flag loses 7%/90%. If there are 9 flag bearers, then the player who gets first flag wins 81%/14%.
So yes, the majority of the effect in this case, is who ends up with the flag in the long run.
82
Simulation / Re: BM + Flag Bearer
« on: April 03, 2019, 12:38:24 am »Why does buying the first Flag Bearer put you at a disadvantage?Once a bots gets the first Flag Bearer, both bots will keep on getting Flag Bearers until they pile. So the bot that got flag first does not actually have the flag more often. And on average, that bot will have more Flag Bearers in their deck (which is bad because of terminal collision). And finally, once the Flag Bearer pile empties, the bot who got the flag first loses it forever.
Later in the game, when players are greening, getting a Flag Bearer isn't as bad, because the opponent doesn't want to pass up a province just to take the flag away. (The first bot on the other hand, did not pass up a province, because the rule is that it only buys the first Flag Bearer when it doesn't have enough money for Province.)
You should be cautious about interpreting these results. They're just bots, and it's just big money. I think in a real kingdom, first flag bearer is better, because your opponent is often passing up something good to take the flag away from you.
83
Variants and Fan Cards / Re: Nocturne simplified, without Hexes or duds
« on: March 12, 2019, 02:27:02 pm »How strong is adding +Action to Cobbler? Gaining a $4 to the top of your deck is the effect of Armory, a $4 cost action. Drawing a card is the effect of playing a Laboratory from your hand, a $5 cost action. So Cobbler's effect can be thought of as non-terminal Armory + Laboratory. In contrast, getting an extra action is the effect of a Village. So the revision improves Cobbler's effect to that of non-terminal Armory + Laboratory + Village. I also doubt this take on Cobbler would lead to particularly fast 3-piles, because you need two Cobblers to gain one card per turn.The situation I was imagining is, what if Cobbler is the only village, and you really need that village? So you get more Cobblers than you really want, and there go the piles. I mean, it might be interesting, and perhaps not any worse than University. If you test it I'd love to hear about it.
The point of removing Hexes is to reduce the complexity of the cards. With that in mind, Envy and Misery are out. Cursed Village could be worth -1 VP, if that doesn't cause rules confusion. That may be too large a penalty. Leprechaun giving Poverty would make its drawback more severe in decks that draw and want to play it for the Wish than in money-heavy decks that never intend to play it for the Wish. That seems backwards.Misery and Envy are complex? I never would have thought so, not on their own. Anyway, it doesn't seem like you should constrain yourself to copying the hexes exactly. For Leprechaun, you could ignore the "envious" state, and just say "for the rest of this turn, golds give only $1". -1 VP is probably a close-enough approximation of Misery. I doubt that it's too large, given my experience with landmarks like Obelisk.
84
Variants and Fan Cards / Re: Nocturne simplified, without Hexes or duds
« on: March 12, 2019, 09:07:28 am »
I like hexes too, but I don't need to agree with the OP's premise to give constructive feedback. This argument seems like a non-issue.
Instead of dropping Fool, you could just change the boons to vanilla bonuses. e.g. receive 3 boons -> +3 cards, and Lost in the Woods lets you discard a card to draw a card. I think that would be a pretty reasonable card. I wouldn't pair it with lucky coin though, that's just asking for big money games.
I don't really think Cobbler needs a buff, and adding +Action is probably very strong. I'd be worried that if it's too strong then it 3-piles too fast.
Giving +Buy to Raider sounds fine. I don't really like Raider that much even when it's good though.
I'd pair Leprechaun with Poverty or Envy, preserving the phenomenon where you're afraid to play Leprechaun if you're not getting a wish because it might ruin your turn.
I'd pair Cursed Village with Misery or Envy. Misery only really hurts if you're the only player getting Cursed Village. Envy probably doesn't hurt at all in the kind of deck that likes Cursed Village, but sometimes it might. Or maybe just forget hexes and take your -1 coin token.
I'd predict that your take on Tormentor is very centralizing. I mean, junkers often are, because you don't want to be the only player gaining them. But you know, if a card makes you jump through hoops to junk your opponent, often what that means is you're just going to spend more of the game jumping through hoops. And it's not like Idol, because you often don't want silver in your deck, but imps are good in almost any deck. But it might be fine even if it's centralizing--Imps are interactive. I'd test it to see if it has a runaway winner problem.
Instead of dropping Fool, you could just change the boons to vanilla bonuses. e.g. receive 3 boons -> +3 cards, and Lost in the Woods lets you discard a card to draw a card. I think that would be a pretty reasonable card. I wouldn't pair it with lucky coin though, that's just asking for big money games.
I don't really think Cobbler needs a buff, and adding +Action is probably very strong. I'd be worried that if it's too strong then it 3-piles too fast.
Giving +Buy to Raider sounds fine. I don't really like Raider that much even when it's good though.
I'd pair Leprechaun with Poverty or Envy, preserving the phenomenon where you're afraid to play Leprechaun if you're not getting a wish because it might ruin your turn.
I'd pair Cursed Village with Misery or Envy. Misery only really hurts if you're the only player getting Cursed Village. Envy probably doesn't hurt at all in the kind of deck that likes Cursed Village, but sometimes it might. Or maybe just forget hexes and take your -1 coin token.
I'd predict that your take on Tormentor is very centralizing. I mean, junkers often are, because you don't want to be the only player gaining them. But you know, if a card makes you jump through hoops to junk your opponent, often what that means is you're just going to spend more of the game jumping through hoops. And it's not like Idol, because you often don't want silver in your deck, but imps are good in almost any deck. But it might be fine even if it's centralizing--Imps are interactive. I'd test it to see if it has a runaway winner problem.
85
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2018 Edition: Boons
« on: February 27, 2019, 05:02:58 pm »
That was a joke my friends. More will-o-wisp facts: Will-o-wisp is better than lab because if the top card of your deck is something crappy (like a will-o-wisp), will-o-wisp will clear it out for you, and if it's something good (like a lab), will-o-wisp will save it for your next turn for increased reliability.
86
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2018 Edition: Boons
« on: February 27, 2019, 10:44:05 am »
Will-o-wisps are better than labs, because you can draw two will-o-wisps with a will-o-wisp, but you can't draw two labs with a will-o-wisp.
Really the main problem with flame's gift is that sometimes you don't have a card to trash, or you need those coppers right now to hit a price point, or you just discarded the card you wanted to trash to lost in the woods. In you decline to trash you're not gaining those labs.
Really the main problem with flame's gift is that sometimes you don't have a card to trash, or you need those coppers right now to hit a price point, or you just discarded the card you wanted to trash to lost in the woods. In you decline to trash you're not gaining those labs.
87
Dominion Articles / Re: Glossary Update
« on: February 27, 2019, 10:33:46 am »I have updated the OP considering your comments and labeled it Version 2. Hopefully I have fixed the typos, as well, but please double-check!The updates look excellent.
Still considering adding: Draw Card, Terminal Space, Build, Gainer. (If you would like these added, any suggestions for a good definition?)
Still considering removing: Village Idiot.
One thing is that there are three "split" terms (opening split, split piles, winning the split), and right now only two of them refer to the other, instead of all three referring to each other.
I know all those were my suggestions, but the one that I would really put a vote for is "Gainer", which is simply ubiquitous.
Gainer - A card with the ability to gain other (usually good) cards. Most gainers are restricted in what they can gain, such as a card that only gains silvers, or a card that only gains cards costing up to $4.
88
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2018 Edition: Hexes
« on: February 26, 2019, 11:03:49 pm »
A 44% win percentage for receiving Misery doesn't seem that outlandish. If you look at a bunch of landmarks, getting a 2-3 VP lead often translates to about 5% advantage there too.
Markus could address this question with a histogram of VP differences. But it's fairly common to trounce on a forced victory as soon as you can get the slightest VP lead, so I would guess that 1 VP leads are far more common than 10%
I dunno about high-ranking games, but I play IRL and we're bad at tracking VP, and I feel like I lose to Misery all the time. Despite this I ranked it #8. Man, I should really put Misery higher next time.
Markus could address this question with a histogram of VP differences. But it's fairly common to trounce on a forced victory as soon as you can get the slightest VP lead, so I would guess that 1 VP leads are far more common than 10%
I dunno about high-ranking games, but I play IRL and we're bad at tracking VP, and I feel like I lose to Misery all the time. Despite this I ranked it #8. Man, I should really put Misery higher next time.
89
Dominion Articles / Re: Glossary Update
« on: February 26, 2019, 11:36:16 am »
Writing a glossary for a community website can be pretty difficult and contentious, good job.
I would also add "draw card" (referring to cards that draw at least 2 cards), "terminal space", "terminal draw", "split" (referring to other entries), "build", "gainer", "dudding" (as in a dud turn), "slog", and "money" (a common alternative term for big money).
Of course, maybe you can search through the blog to see if these terms are actually used in practice. It makes sense for the blog to have a more limited vocabulary than the forums. I searched through the last five months, and couldn't find any examples of "terminal space", "slog" was only in one article, and there were only a few uses of "dud" and "draw card". So, maybe don't add those.
While we're at it, I learned that these terms aren't used much either: "counter", "cycling", "draw dead", "duchy dancing", "pseudo-trash", "terminal collision", "terminal gold", "terminal silver", and "village idiot". I would judiciously remove some of those. Oh, and "top-deck" is always used as "topdeck".
Now, the deck archetypes (engine and money). I think these are really contentious, so I would settle for a "good enough" definition. The engine definition is good enough. As for big money, I don't like this "strictly speaking" vs "in practice" phrasing. Instead I would just call them narrow and broad definitions. I also think you're missing the broader definition, of a deck that simply doesn't draw a lot, but maybe it would be good enough without that.
I would also add "draw card" (referring to cards that draw at least 2 cards), "terminal space", "terminal draw", "split" (referring to other entries), "build", "gainer", "dudding" (as in a dud turn), "slog", and "money" (a common alternative term for big money).
Of course, maybe you can search through the blog to see if these terms are actually used in practice. It makes sense for the blog to have a more limited vocabulary than the forums. I searched through the last five months, and couldn't find any examples of "terminal space", "slog" was only in one article, and there were only a few uses of "dud" and "draw card". So, maybe don't add those.
While we're at it, I learned that these terms aren't used much either: "counter", "cycling", "draw dead", "duchy dancing", "pseudo-trash", "terminal collision", "terminal gold", "terminal silver", and "village idiot". I would judiciously remove some of those. Oh, and "top-deck" is always used as "topdeck".
Now, the deck archetypes (engine and money). I think these are really contentious, so I would settle for a "good enough" definition. The engine definition is good enough. As for big money, I don't like this "strictly speaking" vs "in practice" phrasing. Instead I would just call them narrow and broad definitions. I also think you're missing the broader definition, of a deck that simply doesn't draw a lot, but maybe it would be good enough without that.
90
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2018 Edition: Landmarks
« on: February 25, 2019, 10:45:40 am »I was wondering about that too! I have two hypotheses. First, maybe Wolf Den is just totally overrated. It doesn't affect how you build in any significant way, and mainly you just buy second copies of each card as a substitute for duchies. Second, maybe Wolf Den just as often makes games shorter as it makes them longer. For instance, if you get a second Gold instead of a Duchy, maybe you can use that gold to end the game sooner.I agree with the intro that there are a lot of different metrics you can use to rank most cards, but landmarks have basically just one metric. On that note, let's take a look at Markus' statistics for landmarks!This is interesting, but clearly insufficient: According to those stats, Wolf Den has basically no impact. It does not impact game length or 3-piles, but it clearly forces you to build differently.
I like the idea of looking at change in gain rates, if only because it resembles the "impact factor" analysis I did last year, but I'm not sure how well it would work for landmarks. e.g. how much does Obelisk change gain rates on average? Depending on what Obelisk pile you choose, it might affect the gain rate of that particular pile, but this effect could be washed out when you average over all games.So what do you think? Seems like there's a pretty good case that Keep > Wall, although Wall leads to more games ending on provinces. I also think Tower should be higher, since it apparently causes a 3-pile in about 15% of games.
I like the idea of looking at the stats to determine landmark impact, and I agree with the intuition about game length. For the reasons you mention, though, I think neither length of game nor chance of 3-pile alone summarizes impact well. Combining the two works better, but are there other variables we could measure? Maybe average length of game given a province ending, or given a 3-pile ending. Maybe the chance of first player winning would also be interesting. Skill multiplier might also say something about impact, if we believe that better players are more likely to alter their strategy with the landmark, whereas worse players aren't.
More generally it would be cool to have some kind of aggregate of how much the gain distribution changes in the presence of landmark X. So, total over all cards of the difference between the gain rate of that card with landmark X and the average gain rate for that card.
Skill multiplier is another good idea, but it's not clear what it means. Mountain Pass has the highest at 1.26, probably because it's just hard to play correctly, and it has a "win more" effect. Battlefield has the lowest skill multiplier at 0.78, and I just don't know why that is.
A few other ideas: It might be interesting to see if the statistics change when we give greater weight to games with top players. I also wonder if there's something you could do by looking at how many points the winner has compared to the loser.
91
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2018 Edition: Landmarks
« on: February 24, 2019, 09:06:47 pm »
I agree with the intro that there are a lot of different metrics you can use to rank most cards, but landmarks have basically just one metric. On that note, let's take a look at Markus' statistics for landmarks!
My first thought is that if a landmark is strong, then you are likely to follow a "suboptimal" strategy that takes longer, but gets more landmark points. So one way to rank the cards is to look at the average number of turns before the game ends (excluding games with resignations). This produces the following ranking:
Keep 17.9
Wall 17.5
Mountain Pass 17.4
Battlefield 17.4
Museum 17.4
Defiled Shrine 17.3
Basilica 17.1
Palace 17.1
Fountain 17
Labyrinth 17
Baths 17
Colonnade 16.9
Aqueduct 16.9
Arena 16.8
Wolf Den 16.8
all games 16.7
Triumphal Arch 16.7
Bandit Fort 16.6
Obelisk 16.6
Tomb 16.6
Orchard 16.6
Tower 16.2
But wait, Tower games are actually faster than average? Well of course, Tower leads to some quick three-piles. So another metric we can get on the strength of a landmark, is percentage chance of a three-pile. Here are those rankings (again excluding resignations).
Tower 57
Triumphal Arch 54
Orchard 52
Obelisk 51
Tomb 51
Bandit Fort 48
Labyrinth 45
Colonnade 45
Basilica 44
Fountain 44
Arena 42
Museum 42
all games 42
Defiled Shrine 41
Wolf Den 40
Mountain Pass 39
Keep 39
Battlefield 39
Baths 39
Aqueduct 37
Palace 35
Wall 27
So what do you think? Seems like there's a pretty good case that Keep > Wall, although Wall leads to more games ending on provinces. I also think Tower should be higher, since it apparently causes a 3-pile in about 15% of games.
My first thought is that if a landmark is strong, then you are likely to follow a "suboptimal" strategy that takes longer, but gets more landmark points. So one way to rank the cards is to look at the average number of turns before the game ends (excluding games with resignations). This produces the following ranking:
Keep 17.9
Wall 17.5
Mountain Pass 17.4
Battlefield 17.4
Museum 17.4
Defiled Shrine 17.3
Basilica 17.1
Palace 17.1
Fountain 17
Labyrinth 17
Baths 17
Colonnade 16.9
Aqueduct 16.9
Arena 16.8
Wolf Den 16.8
all games 16.7
Triumphal Arch 16.7
Bandit Fort 16.6
Obelisk 16.6
Tomb 16.6
Orchard 16.6
Tower 16.2
But wait, Tower games are actually faster than average? Well of course, Tower leads to some quick three-piles. So another metric we can get on the strength of a landmark, is percentage chance of a three-pile. Here are those rankings (again excluding resignations).
Tower 57
Triumphal Arch 54
Orchard 52
Obelisk 51
Tomb 51
Bandit Fort 48
Labyrinth 45
Colonnade 45
Basilica 44
Fountain 44
Arena 42
Museum 42
all games 42
Defiled Shrine 41
Wolf Den 40
Mountain Pass 39
Keep 39
Battlefield 39
Baths 39
Aqueduct 37
Palace 35
Wall 27
So what do you think? Seems like there's a pretty good case that Keep > Wall, although Wall leads to more games ending on provinces. I also think Tower should be higher, since it apparently causes a 3-pile in about 15% of games.
92
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2018 Edition: $5 Cards
« on: February 19, 2019, 12:54:13 pm »
I made some rankings based on Markus' statistics, using the winner's gain percentage (or buy percentage in the case of projects/events), and I'm going to compare them to the Qvist rankings.
Using winner's gain/buy percentage, the top ten cards are: Governor, Wharf, Mountebank, Hunting Party, Recruiter, Vampire, Counterfeit, Butcher, Cultist, Margrave.
The bottom ten cards are (from bottom to top): Stash, Counting House, Harvest, Mandarin, Cache, Contraband, Royal Seal, Raid, Merchant Ship, Pillage.
Now to compare the "Markus" rankings based on winner's gain percentage, and Qvist rankings. The top three winners in the Markus rankings are:
Market - Qvist 78, Markus 20, 76% gain
Festival - Qvist 74, Markus 27, 74% gain
Forum - Qvist 59, Markus 13, 80% gain
And the top five losers are:
Rebuild - Qvist 45, Markus 90, 44% gain
Torturer - Qvist 8, Markus 45, 65% gain
Catacombs - Qvist 51, Markus 87, 47% gain
Scholar - Qvist 76, Markus 111, 30% gain
Rabble - Qvist 48, Markus 82, 48% gain
In general it seems like harmless cantrips and non-terminals do better in the Markus rankings compared to the Qvist rankings, and terminal draw does worse. This makes sense, and does not mean that the cards are necessarily ranked incorrectly. So I looked around for more interesting outliers. Here are some winners:
Ball - Qvist 79, Markus 46, 65% buy
Tormentor - Qvist 93, Markus 67, 55% gain
Sacred Grove - Qvist 96, Markus 74, 50% gain
Mint - Qvist 92, Markus 72, 52% gain
And losers:
Swamp Hag - Qvist 50, Markus 83, 47% gain
Fleet - Qvist 52, Markus 81, 48% buy
Count - Qvist 35, Markus 64, 57% gain
Junk Dealer - Qvist 13, Markus 28, 74% gain
Groundskeeper - Qvist 22, Markus 36, 69% gain
Using winner's gain/buy percentage, the top ten cards are: Governor, Wharf, Mountebank, Hunting Party, Recruiter, Vampire, Counterfeit, Butcher, Cultist, Margrave.
The bottom ten cards are (from bottom to top): Stash, Counting House, Harvest, Mandarin, Cache, Contraband, Royal Seal, Raid, Merchant Ship, Pillage.
Now to compare the "Markus" rankings based on winner's gain percentage, and Qvist rankings. The top three winners in the Markus rankings are:
Market - Qvist 78, Markus 20, 76% gain
Festival - Qvist 74, Markus 27, 74% gain
Forum - Qvist 59, Markus 13, 80% gain
And the top five losers are:
Rebuild - Qvist 45, Markus 90, 44% gain
Torturer - Qvist 8, Markus 45, 65% gain
Catacombs - Qvist 51, Markus 87, 47% gain
Scholar - Qvist 76, Markus 111, 30% gain
Rabble - Qvist 48, Markus 82, 48% gain
In general it seems like harmless cantrips and non-terminals do better in the Markus rankings compared to the Qvist rankings, and terminal draw does worse. This makes sense, and does not mean that the cards are necessarily ranked incorrectly. So I looked around for more interesting outliers. Here are some winners:
Ball - Qvist 79, Markus 46, 65% buy
Tormentor - Qvist 93, Markus 67, 55% gain
Sacred Grove - Qvist 96, Markus 74, 50% gain
Mint - Qvist 92, Markus 72, 52% gain
And losers:
Swamp Hag - Qvist 50, Markus 83, 47% gain
Fleet - Qvist 52, Markus 81, 48% buy
Count - Qvist 35, Markus 64, 57% gain
Junk Dealer - Qvist 13, Markus 28, 74% gain
Groundskeeper - Qvist 22, Markus 36, 69% gain
93
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2018 Edition: $4 Cards (Bottom Half)
« on: February 18, 2019, 01:18:57 pm »
While Patron can be drawn dead, in practice you usually have an extra villager lying around, and can spend it to play Patron and get the villager back. Not only that, but you can play any other non-terminals in hand before playing the Patron. Terminal Draw + Patron + Cantrips is a thing, and it's good.
94
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2018 Edition: $4 Cards (Bottom Half)
« on: February 17, 2019, 11:10:07 am »[Flag Bearer] is the third most gained $4 card overall!From what I can see, it's in 4th, after Tournament, Magpie, and Silk Merchant.
Flag Bearer was even in my top 10. I don't really stand by my rankings, but what can I say, we usually got Flag Bearer. And when we did get it, we got a lot of them and it was very game-dominating. And the stats show that other people have had a similar experiences, so I'm puzzled that people think it's weak.
Earlier I made a sim and it seems like first Flag Bearer is pretty bad in a single-card kingdom. So, In the future I will think harder before getting the first one. But I think first Flag Bearer is good in a lot more situations than the sim suggests. The thing about the single-card kingdom is that your opponent only needs to pass up on gold to take the flag away from you, but in a real kingdom there are much better options than gold, so taking the flag comes with a more serious opportunity cost.
95
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2018 Edition: $3 Cards (Top Half)
« on: February 16, 2019, 12:24:09 pm »
Chris is me, you're welcome to take the simulation as a joke, I'm just trying to provide some objective information instead of my useless own opinion. I'd love to participate in the whole "compare official rankings to my own rankings" thing but when I look at my own rankings I tend to think that they're a mess, so.
Hey, I made some rankings based on Markus' statistics! I looked at the winner's gain percentage (or buy percentage, in the case of projects/Events). The top 5 are Star Chart, Black Market, Forager, Dungeon, and Masquerade. The bottom 5 are Masterpiece, Fortune Teller, Banquet, Changeling, and Trade Route.
Here are the biggest disagreements:
Secret Cave - Qvist 55, Markus 19, 81% gain
Cathedral - Qvist 4, Markus 34, 64% buy
City Gate - Qvist 45, Markus 16, 83% buy
Smugglers - Qvist 36, Markus 59, 44% gain
Pageant - Qvist 33, Markus 12, 85% buy
Market Square - Qvist 30, Markus 9, 86% gain
Changeling - Qvist 41, Markus 61, 35% gain
In general, it seems like do-nothing cantrips (and harmless projects like Pageant and City Gate) have high gain percentages, but do poorly in the rankings. Makes sense, and it does not mean that they deserve to be ranked higher. Changeling also makes sense, because I think exchanging for a changeling doesn't count as gaining. The main thing I'm getting out of this is that people way underbuy Cathedral.
Hey, I made some rankings based on Markus' statistics! I looked at the winner's gain percentage (or buy percentage, in the case of projects/Events). The top 5 are Star Chart, Black Market, Forager, Dungeon, and Masquerade. The bottom 5 are Masterpiece, Fortune Teller, Banquet, Changeling, and Trade Route.
Here are the biggest disagreements:
Secret Cave - Qvist 55, Markus 19, 81% gain
Cathedral - Qvist 4, Markus 34, 64% buy
City Gate - Qvist 45, Markus 16, 83% buy
Smugglers - Qvist 36, Markus 59, 44% gain
Pageant - Qvist 33, Markus 12, 85% buy
Market Square - Qvist 30, Markus 9, 86% gain
Changeling - Qvist 41, Markus 61, 35% gain
In general, it seems like do-nothing cantrips (and harmless projects like Pageant and City Gate) have high gain percentages, but do poorly in the rankings. Makes sense, and it does not mean that they deserve to be ranked higher. Changeling also makes sense, because I think exchanging for a changeling doesn't count as gaining. The main thing I'm getting out of this is that people way underbuy Cathedral.
96
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2018 Edition: $3 Cards (Top Half)
« on: February 15, 2019, 10:45:39 am »Star Chart is overrated. It should be with Scheme, the two cards do mostly the same thing.I just tried a sim that opens Scheme + Conspirator, and then only buys estates whenever Conspirator is in play. Then I tried the same sim with Star Chart. The Star Chart strategy initially plays Conspirator every 2 turns, and drains estates by turn 20. The Scheme strategy initially plays Conspirator on about 50-60% of turns, and drains estates around turn 18. Oh and if you get neither, then it takes about 24 turns.
So yeah, Star Chart seems about as good as a single scheme, in a deck that doesn't draw. But I'm guessing Star Chart really shines with duration cards and draw cards (since those are likely to miss shuffles if not at the top of your deck). Star chart + Masq is a great example.
97
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2018 Edition: $0-$2 Cards (Bottom Half)
« on: February 12, 2019, 05:57:43 pm »If by some fluke of the shuffle, Market Square always appeared immediately before one of the coppers in your deck, would that make a huge difference in its power level?Instead of comparing Ducat to Candlestick Maker, we should really be comparing it to Market Square.
Isn't that like comparing Gold to Smithy? How does that work?
Well, if you buy it and trash a copper, ducat is like a nonterminal +buy that doesn't take up space in your deck for $3.
Market square is also like that.
I feel like this only works if the card you draw when you play Market Square is a Copper.
The Ducat/Market Square comparison is basically identical to the comparison people make between thinning a card, and gaining a lab. There are a few disanalogies, for example if you thin a copper you no longer get the value from the copper every shuffle (which makes it more like gaining a Fugitive than a Lab). And while you can't thin more coppers than you had to begin with, you can gain more labs.
Of course, a nontrivial amount of Market Square's power comes from the reaction. Ducat's extra effect on top of the +buy is like a poor man's Pageant.
98
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2018 Edition: $0-$2 Cards (Top Half)
« on: February 12, 2019, 03:17:44 pm »16: Travelling Fair (10) - You all know this event is good. I think it's better. The stats for this one are actually shocking. It's bought by the winner in 81% of games, and in games where only one player buys it, they win a whopping 70% of the time! I have some doubt about the causation direction on that stat, because Travelling Fair might occasionally be something you only buy on the turn you win, but I don't think that can explain the full effect. Stats aside, +buy on demand is great, and topdecking is great. Buy this often.I am even more doubtful about the causation direction of Travelling Fair statistics than you. Often you want to buy TFair when you hit $7 or higher (either to get two useful cards out of it, or to topdeck a $5-cost). So we should be thinking of it like one of those really expensive cards like King's Court, where buying it isn't just a winning move, it's an indication that you were in a winning position to begin with. That said, I put TFair at #12, so I'm not in much disagreement.
99
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2018 Edition: $0-$2 Cards (Bottom Half)
« on: February 12, 2019, 02:50:21 pm »
Instead of comparing Ducat to Candlestick Maker, we should really be comparing it to Market Square.
100
Simulation / BM + Flag Bearer
« on: January 31, 2019, 12:18:33 am »
Geronimoo implemented Rennaissance! Yay!
I tried some simulations using Flag Bearer. The conventional wisdom so far, is that getting the flag is great, but if you're the first person to get the flag then you're at a disadvantage. In the context of a kingdom with only flag bearer, this appears to be mostly correct.
I used a modified version of WinderingWinder's BMU strategy. The buy rules are as follows:
-Buy Province if $18 in deck
-Buy Duchy if <= 4 Provinces in supply
-Buy Estate if <= 2 Provinces in supply
-Buy Flag Bearer if opponent has Flag
-Buy Gold
-Buy Duchy if <= 6 provinces in supply
-Buy first Flag Bearer
-Silver
This beats an ordinary BMU strategy 97%/2%. However, there is also a simple counter strategy, which is the same except that it never buys the first Flag Bearer. This strategy beats Flag Bearer 90%/7%. It also seems that if either player stops buying Flag Bearers before the pile is out, then that player loses.
Is it never correct to buy the first Flag Bearer? Well I tried a few things, and it seems that if you buy the first flag bearer after turn 10, this gives you a very modest edge. We're talking a 50%/42% win percentage (regardless of who's first player ETA: I think first player was randomized).
Using this pair of strategies, I played around with priorities. It seems that both players should prioritize getting the flag over getting Duchies, and then the win percentage got reduced to 46%/42%. It does not help to further prioritize the first Flag Bearer. Basically, you buy the first Flag Bearer during the greening phase if you hit precisely $4, and you always take the Flag from your opponent unless you're buying a Province instead. I looked at some sample games and it seems that you often get to keep the flag for several turns because your opponent doesn't want to pass on province.
I also tried a strategy that opens Flag Bearer, and tries to snag an extra one so that it keeps the flag when the pile is out. This helps, but still worse than not opening Flag Bearer.
Conclusions? Contesting Flag is super good. The first Flag Bearer is not so good, but can be a tossup even in absence of support.
I tried some simulations using Flag Bearer. The conventional wisdom so far, is that getting the flag is great, but if you're the first person to get the flag then you're at a disadvantage. In the context of a kingdom with only flag bearer, this appears to be mostly correct.
I used a modified version of WinderingWinder's BMU strategy. The buy rules are as follows:
-Buy Province if $18 in deck
-Buy Duchy if <= 4 Provinces in supply
-Buy Estate if <= 2 Provinces in supply
-Buy Flag Bearer if opponent has Flag
-Buy Gold
-Buy Duchy if <= 6 provinces in supply
-Buy first Flag Bearer
-Silver
This beats an ordinary BMU strategy 97%/2%. However, there is also a simple counter strategy, which is the same except that it never buys the first Flag Bearer. This strategy beats Flag Bearer 90%/7%. It also seems that if either player stops buying Flag Bearers before the pile is out, then that player loses.
Is it never correct to buy the first Flag Bearer? Well I tried a few things, and it seems that if you buy the first flag bearer after turn 10, this gives you a very modest edge. We're talking a 50%/42% win percentage (
Using this pair of strategies, I played around with priorities. It seems that both players should prioritize getting the flag over getting Duchies, and then the win percentage got reduced to 46%/42%. It does not help to further prioritize the first Flag Bearer. Basically, you buy the first Flag Bearer during the greening phase if you hit precisely $4, and you always take the Flag from your opponent unless you're buying a Province instead. I looked at some sample games and it seems that you often get to keep the flag for several turns because your opponent doesn't want to pass on province.
I also tried a strategy that opens Flag Bearer, and tries to snag an extra one so that it keeps the flag when the pile is out. This helps, but still worse than not opening Flag Bearer.
Conclusions? Contesting Flag is super good. The first Flag Bearer is not so good, but can be a tossup even in absence of support.