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Messages - markus

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26
Just one word of caution with the stats ranking is that some hexes are close and the differences not statistically significant.

If you want to have one number: receiving Misery makes you go from 50% to 44% win chance. (95% confidence interval about [42%,46%]. Bad Omens for comparison would be [45%,49%].)

27
One part of the statistics I have is the impact factor inspired by trivialknot. It can be found for all cards here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M2L7hcY3sbA33OwuZhgPYJWVlMFgJYBdK8cnkbJHmbo/edit#gid=1032809554

It looks at how much more or less other "cards" get bought, gained or trashed compared to the average game, distinguishing between the probability of doing that and the number. Each category is normalized to have mean 0 and standard deviation of 1.

Here are the landmarks only:

28
Dominion General Discussion / Re: A Question About First-Player Advantage
« on: February 26, 2019, 02:41:11 am »
I can often not really distinguish resigning from buying last Province for a loss. The games without resign are the ones with at least 2 Provinces left or 2 cards away from a 3-pile.

29
Even when Fortune Teller hits something, it is weaker than the -Card token, because you would draw into this junk anyways at some point. So the attack of FT is not really topdecking the junk but removing the non-junk cards before it.

Not if it causes a shuffle first.
Shuffling doesn't really matter for that purpose. It means that also your cards in hand miss the shuffle - maybe you would have even triggered that shuffle on your turn anyways.

Maybe you would have triggered the shuffle, or maybe you wouldn't. The point is that saying that it's just making you draw junk sooner than you would have isn't entirely correct - sometimes it also makes you see junk more frequently than you would have otherwise.
That's also true in the "sooner" argument. You shuffle earlie, when you discard non-junkl. So yes, you do draw junk more frequently. My point was not that the attack doesn't do anything, but that it's significantly weaker than the -Card token.

30
The Best + Cards (Top Half)

Comments for odd ranks are provided by lovestha, comments for even ranks by markus.

#19 ▲2 Nobles (Intrigue)
Weighted Average:
51.0%
Unweighted Average:
49.6%
Median:
48.7%
Standard Deviation:
16.6%

A very sad village, but still a village. A very sad source of VP, but still a source of VP. Only a little bit sad when it is how you are drawing cards, +3 cards is never bad. Getting all three in one package is very strong.
#18  Canal (Renaissance)
Weighted Average:
51.1%
Unweighted Average:
51.7%
Median:
48.7%
Standard Deviation:
21.0%

Being a project, you can't stack Canal as you love to do it with Bridges. The permanent cost reduction is still useful on the typical board and can be quite exciting with Workshops that suddenly can gain the shiny $5 cost cards.
#17 ▲1 Peddler (Prosperity)
Weighted Average:
55.9%
Unweighted Average:
54.0%
Median:
54.1%
Standard Deviation:
18.6%

No better place to put surplus buys than a peddler. But for more than $2 it is a pretty sad option. Its position in the $6+ list is a bit awkward, has anyone ever paid $6 for Peddler when they cared about the text on Peddler?
#16  Innovation (Renaissance)
Weighted Average:
57.6%
Unweighted Average:
57.6%
Median:
56.8%
Standard Deviation:
21.9%

The usefulness of Innovation depends on the board quite a bit. Preferably, there's a way to gain Action cards during the Action phase. Or there might be some cards that you can buy for a nice immediate effect. In contrast to other (expensive) projects, the only player to buy it doesn't have a great win performance in my stats sample (still ok!).
#15  Citadel (Renaissance)
Weighted Average:
61.3%
Unweighted Average:
63.3%
Median:
64.9%
Standard Deviation:
17.9%

The highest entry in this list of a Renaissance card. The reliability of a Throne Room every turn is great, having to play it first every turn is less awesome. Will not be surprised to see this rise a few slots next year.
#14 ▼1 Artisan (Base)
Weighted Average:
62.2%
Unweighted Average:
59.5%
Median:
64.9%
Standard Deviation:
16.4%

Artisan is a very nice gainer of $5 cost cards. Just get it as early as possible and you'll typically do fine.
#13 ▲1 Altar (Dark Ages)
Weighted Average:
64.0%
Unweighted Average:
57.2%
Median:
59.5%
Standard Deviation:
19.6%

The big trash and gain. The gain is big enough that you aren't sad to sacrifice early purchases to it. I am a bit sad when it is the only trashing in a kingdom, it is so very slow at that it's nearly not worth mentioning, it is more a side benefit to use in the late game to get rid of early trashers after they are no longer useful or to keep up with a weak junker.
#12 ▼2 Overlord (Empires)
Weighted Average:
65.5%
Unweighted Average:
62.0%
Median:
62.2%
Standard Deviation:
20.2%

Getting Overlord on turn 2 to play your preferred $5 cost on turn 3 or 4 is often the correct move. Later on, buying the $5 costs might be cheaper, but possibly you value the higher reliability of Overlord. Just be careful, that the card you want to play doesn't pile out.
#11 ▼6 Fortune (Empires)
Weighted Average:
70.1%
Unweighted Average:
69.9%
Median:
73.0%
Standard Deviation:
20.3%

Biggest cost in the game, but it's worth it. May not be available is the biggest down side with it staying hidden under Gladiator many games.
#10 ▲2 Dominate (Empires)
Weighted Average:
70.7%
Unweighted Average:
69.3%
Median:
73.0%
Standard Deviation:
15.4%

Dominate gains the 2 ranks that it lost last year to swap it's rank with Overlord again. It potentially provides a lot of VP, so you usually want to build a bit more...and then watch out for the 3-pile that ends the game before a Dominate gets even bought.
#9 ▲2 Grand Market (Prosperity)
Weighted Average:
73.2%
Unweighted Average:
72.3%
Median:
75.7%
Standard Deviation:
17.1%

One of everything and an extra coin doesn't sound like much, and you need to jump through hoops to get it? The deal is a lot better than it sounds. Jumping through the hoops can make it slow, but it is commonly worth it.
#8 ▲1 Border Village (Hinterlands)
Weighted Average:
73.5%
Unweighted Average:
69.7%
Median:
73.0%
Standard Deviation:
14.8%

In the best case, you only pay $1 more to get a Village with your $5 cost. Or you can Remodel into Border Village. If you are able to make use of its gain effect more often than your opponent, you're in a good shape to win the game.
#7 ▼1 Lost Arts (Adventures)
Weighted Average:
74.6%
Unweighted Average:
72.5%
Median:
81.1%
Standard Deviation:
23.4%

Turning a cantrip into a village gives a lot of flexibility to many kingdoms. The cost of 6 should be easy to achieve around the time that a deck needs to have a bunch of villages.
#6 ▲1 City Quarter (Empires)
Weighted Average:
77.6%
Unweighted Average:
74.4%
Median:
78.4%
Standard Deviation:
17.8%

Finding the right timing for your City Quarter gains is sometimes tricky. But in general you should get more than you think. If you also find a way to increase the action density in your hand, the deck can become quite explosive.
#5 ▲3 Inheritance (Adventures)
Weighted Average:
77.9%
Unweighted Average:
72.7%
Median:
78.4%
Standard Deviation:
21.0%

Cementing its place at 5th, Inheritance is obviously a very strong effect. Personally I put it a little bit lower as it is more situationally good than others it is ranking above. When the conditions are right for using it there is no doubt about its power.
#4 =0 Pathfinding (Adventures)
Weighted Average:
78.8%
Unweighted Average:
78.1%
Median:
83.8%
Standard Deviation:
16.7%

Pathfinding keeps its spot. It is the best of the rest with a significant distance to the top 3 on this list. The +card token is great...the sooner you're able to buy it the better.
#3 =0 Goons (Prosperity)
Weighted Average:
93.5%
Unweighted Average:
90.4%
Median:
95.0%
Standard Deviation:
17.7%

I'm still enjoying playing with Goons, that could make me a masocist. A useful attack with virtual VP, economy and +buys, it is a compelling payload for any deck. The attack does not stack but the rest of the abilities are very good in multiples. With a deck willing to buy many coppers/silvers the points ceiling for such a deck is very very high. Do not ignore. Obviously this is still the region of cards people are not sleeping on.
#2 =0 King's Court (Prosperity)
Weighted Average:
93.8%
Unweighted Average:
90.0%
Median:
94.6%
Standard Deviation:
19.5%

lovestha: Extremely powerful. Costing 7 is a lot, so it can be too slow. But it can play the role of village or simply amplify your payload. As it must collide with something it is probably wrong to open but otherwise it is a great card. Only clearly a trap when the kingdom doesn't support more than single provincing.

markus: Let's be clear. You almost always want it and you want it in big quantities.
#1 =0 Donate (Empires)
Weighted Average:
97.5%
Unweighted Average:
95.2%
Median:
100.0%
Standard Deviation:
16.3%

Infinite trash for just 8 debt?! Do we really need to say more about this most powerful option? As a self confessed player I'm sure the mistakes I'm making with Donate are: Not planning when to use it well enough; Not thinking about using it twice in a game.
                     

31
Where's the top half?
It will be posted on the 22nd (in some suitable timezone).

32
Even when Fortune Teller hits something, it is weaker than the -Card token, because you would draw into this junk anyways at some point. So the attack of FT is not really topdecking the junk but removing the non-junk cards before it.

Not if it causes a shuffle first.
Shuffling doesn't really matter for that purpose. It means that also your cards in hand miss the shuffle - maybe you would have even triggered that shuffle on your turn anyways.

33
Even when Fortune Teller hits something, it is weaker than the -Card token, because you would draw into this junk anyways at some point. So the attack of FT is not really topdecking the junk but removing the non-junk cards before it.

34
I also thought that posting it in the wrong order and not starting with #1 is bad.
But having two threads is even worse.

35
43.5pp is not very meaningful. You need to argue which cards that are in between the two cards should be below Walled Village or above Wandering Minstrel.

36
Unless you want to play literally any terminal other than Pooka in the early game, you mean.

Why would I want to play any terminal other than a Hunting Grounds that gains me a free Lab every time I play it?
Because it also trashes a Peddler?

37
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The Dominion Cards Lists 2018 Edition
« on: February 15, 2019, 03:12:16 am »
The 6-cost list has 33-36 votes.

38
It's still rather new but I feel that acting troupe is terrible. Give me coin of the realm or even crossroads over acting troupe any day of the week. A one shot villager source that also takes an action itself to play. If you're kicking off your turn by playing one of these, you can play 4 terminal actions that turn (5 if you count acting troupe itself) and then it's gone.

Each gained Village is typically played 3.5 times per game.

The first Village will obviously be played more often, and some of those games are resigned preventing more Village plays. But you'll also not always need the Actions from Village and the flexibility of Villagers is great.

Acting Troupe is obviously better as a village than Crossroads to me. Like CotR it's a stop card, but it's faster and provides more Actions per play. In practice, you'll typically want both.

39
I believe that when breppert put scavenger back up, he excluded ther graph as it would need some work. There's a version with a longer horizon provided by the discord bot.

40
Let's Discuss ... / Re: Let's Discuss Second Edition Cards: Replace
« on: January 29, 2019, 05:22:05 pm »
It's a topdecking Remodel that Curses if you get Victory cards.
For a second I thought that I was wrong in thinking that not all cards get topdecked. I looked up its text and indeed it doesn't topdeck Province for example...I guess crj has a point.

41
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Thunderdominion Card List Results
« on: January 16, 2019, 12:49:00 pm »
...and then you try playing an engine against Rebuild, lose because you're not executing it well, and conclude that Rebuild is strong indeed.

Not everyone is on Discord or gets crushed by Dan Brooks playing an engine against Rebuild.

42
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Dominion Coaching Series
« on: January 16, 2019, 03:01:15 am »
Have you found a coach yet?

43
Dominion Online at Shuffle iT / Re: Dominion Woodcutter Logging Services
« on: January 02, 2019, 09:44:38 am »
For the discord bot, Cave-o-Sapien is able to get the kingdoms of any game (even unrated). Maybe there's a better way to do this that doesn't rely on grabbing games for Woodcutter.

44
Dominion Online at Shuffle iT / Re: Dominion Woodcutter Logging Services
« on: December 13, 2018, 05:52:16 am »
It's not working at the moment due to the Renaissance release. But I think that ceviri is about to fix that.

45
I thought that you could pay off debt in B1 Black Market, but you can't play any other treasures afterwards?
(other than in non-standard ways like with the Storyteller that you bought in that Black Market and that gets played with Innovation)

In other words, the transition from B1 to B2 is not something that needs to happen on an empty stack like moving from A to B. But once you buy something / repay debt, you can't play Treasures / use Coffers anymore.

46
Dominion Online at Shuffle iT / Re: Some Statistics on Ratings
« on: November 15, 2018, 03:20:05 pm »
How do you calculate your wins and losses from these numbers??
You can check Scavenger for your past games and the record: http://dominion.lauxnet.com/scavenger/

47
Dominion: Renaissance Previews / Re: Secret History discussion thread
« on: November 15, 2018, 12:02:45 pm »
I've already had a case when I felt that Citadel was a downside, because I couldn't play my trasher only once.

48
Dominion Online at Shuffle iT / Re: Missing auto-plays
« on: November 11, 2018, 02:44:30 pm »
Yes, it could only be that the autoplay does "end actions" and "end buy phase" for you when that is a thing that you're allowed to do. I don't think that's a lot of effort saved very often.

49
Dominion Online at Shuffle iT / Re: how do i play with a bunch of new cards
« on: November 10, 2018, 01:46:11 pm »
I assume that you want to play against non-bots, because against bots there's everything you need by selecting the appropriate "kingdom".

One way would be set a bunch of old cards unfamiliar and search for a practice game - not sure how long it takes to find an opponent there.

Or you set up a table, use the settings that you want (e.g. at least 1 Project and 2 Renaissance cards) and wait for someone to join it - typically that doesn't take long (maybe use +/-10 for levels requirement).

50
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Why Peasant Will Be On My Ban List
« on: November 10, 2018, 08:25:57 am »
Some cards tend to lead to snowballing and one player eventually crushing the other one. As a result, Peasant, Tournament, Ambassador and King's Court all have high resign rates. But that doesn't necessarily mean that they favour lower skill. Better players could make it more likely that they are the ones who come out ahead. (Tournament and Ambassador seem to help the weaker player a bit; Swindler and Chariot Race are the cards that seem to help weaker players the most, where weaker still means good player > level 50)

If your Chapel misses on a normal board and you are 1-2 turns behind in the end, it might feel better, but the chance of you actually winning the game are reduced to a similar extent as when Peasant misses.

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