Our first analysis is of
this game, between ^_^_^_^, who I'll call foureyes because it's a lot easier to type, and userynamery. The tableau is:
Chapel, Native Village, Embargo, Warehouse, Navigator, Baron, Library, Merchant Ship, Wharf, Goons.
Executive Summary: Usery gets exceptionally lucky, drawing Baron-SCCE on both T3 and T5, and heads straight into Goons; foureyes' Chapel strategy goes south because of terminal clashes.
Openings: foureyes opens Chapel/Baron; usery opens Silver/Baron.
Chapel and Baron are incompatible cards. One of the objects of Chapel is to get rid of one's Estates; chances are you'll only use that Baron once, maybe twice, before it becomes a liability--and if you draw the two together, Baron is a huge liability.
| Turn | Usery | Foureyes |
| 3 | 8->Goons, NV | 3->Silver |
| 4 | 3->Silver | Chapel: E, 3C |
| 5 | 8->Province | 6->Goons |
Usery gets ridiculously lucky, drawing Baron-SCCE not once, but
twice in Turns 3 and 5. The first he plays well; the second he plays incredibly poorly. While a Province on T5 looks great on paper, it really clogs one's deck. Another Goons/NV would have been a better play there. Meanwhile, foureyes draws his Chapel on both T4 and T5--and on the latter it clashes with the Baron. Had the Baron been a Silver instead (standard Chapel/Silver opening), this hand would have trashed two more cards and gained another Silver. Instead, he buys Goons with the Baron. Instead of having trashed 6 cards at this point, he's trashed 4; this is a huge difference, though the Goons will help offset that.
| Turn | Usery | Foureyes |
| 6 | 5->Wharf | 8->Gold, NV |
| 7 | Goons; 4->Embargo, NV | Goons, 4->NV, NV |
| 8 | 4->Silver | Chapel: C; 3->Warehouse |
Foureyes' Chapel clashes again, this time with his Goons on T7. On T8 he finally trashes one more card... but does not trash the Estate in hand, presumably saving it for his Baron.
Now, let's step back a bit and assume foureyes had bought Silvers instead of other terminals. His T5, instead of Baron-Chapel-CCE, would have been Chapel-SCCE. Instead of buying Goons, he trashes CCE and buys NV. T6 he draws SSCCE->Goons... and reshuffles an extra time! The only thing in his discard is Chapel/NV.
Foureyes' deck at T6: Chapel, Baron, NV, Goons, GSCCCCEE (12 cards, av. value 11/12 plus Baron chance, av. hand value 4.5)
Thinned deck at T6: Chapel, NV, Goons, SSCCE (8 cards, av. value 8/8, av. hand value 5)
Opponent: Baron, Goons, NV, Wharf, SSCCCCCCC, PEEE (17 cards, av. value 13/17 plus small Baron chance; av. hand size 6 [Wharf] for av. hand value 4.6)
The small picture is that the thinned deck has more buying power. The bigger picture is that, with judicious use of NV, the thinned deck will be playing Goons
almost every turn. After a few more buys of NV, Goons, and Wharves, the deck will be playing more than one Goons most turns. The opponent will be pinned by the Goons, though with Wharf to mitigate it.
Even with the actual deck, this will be a close game; in fact at time of resignation the players were in a dead heat, so I'm not sure if the resignation was intentional. But usery's deck is better by T20, and unless foureyes could end the game on a lucky turn, he's going to fall farther behind.
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There are plenty of mistakes after T8, though, on both player's sides:
Using the Baron to gain Estates is almost always a losing proposition. You have to desperately need that extra buy to make it worthwhile.
Buying Coppers with Goons is a great idea... in the endgame. But unless you're more than halfway through, which you aren't by T11 (foureyes) or T13 (usery), those Copper buys aren't worth even 2 VP. One could argue they might be worth 3 VP.
Foureyes' T16 3-Estate buy was a definite turning point. Those 6 VP were not nearly worth the extra crap in your deck. Another Goons, another Gold, anything but 3 Estates. Now, later in the game, if you were going to head to a 3-pile ending, that could have been great! But not in the midgame.
Embargoing the Coppers (usery at T19) is an interesting touch but one that hurts both players pretty equally... and probably usery worse, as he has more Goons by that point, he just hasn't been getting pairs--foureyes has, thanks to Warehouses (which wouldn't have been necessary in a thinner deck...)
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Any other comments from the crowd?
