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Messages - Calamitas

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51
Swowl is pushing hard against Joseph and weirdly flippy about Scola. I really don't like that.
I mean, why did he townread Joseph and said "basically everyone else is fine?".
Null-reading Joseph I can understand, I did that myself (he was second on my preference list as I don't think he is quite the biggest asset town making him the best choice among null-reads). But why a strong townread?

Yams - What number do I dial to talk to someone that wants to look at lynch that isn't scolapasta or joseph?

well I like ADK the most, but I am accepting that is probably not going to happen. Also, they were on your town list, so responding to you I will leave them off. So I guess....

MailMi, LaLight
gap
scolapasta

Vote:scolapasta

not my favorite thing ever.

who is around?

Relevant analysis from Space
The person I'm feeling most confused on is Swowl, because I feel like he switches back and forth a number of times on what to think about Joseph, and I don't quite see a reason behind that.

ADK voted Joseph at #117, over the "unvote" stuff around putting Scola at L-1.
Swowl voted ADK as a first real post of the game at #133, but then immediately at #134 asked Mail-mi why he wasn't offering a "vote Joseph" option. His possible distain for Joseph's play is then backed up in #135 where he points out that observing who's looking at the thread is not that useful.
Finally queries LL on being "ok" with either of Joseph or Scola in #136. So the mood in #133 and #136 seemed against people wanting to lynch Joseph, while in #134 and #136 it seemed to be actively open to a Joseph lynch, or at the very least, pointing out that Joseph wasn't being helpfully pro-town.

I guess from #165 & #169 onwards he's settled on wanting to lynch people who though Joseph was scummy, with ADK apparently being top of the list still. I don't see any real justification for how he doesn't seem to think Joseph or Scola deserve votes, and indeed he goes out of his way to ask Scola some questions at 200 that he never goes back and re-engages with. I see that at #212 he says he just doesn't think people who pick up early wagons are ever scum, but that's a very convenient way to avoid having to say anything about any actual play made by either Joseph or Scola.

And then at #236, Scola appears at a second tier of what I assume is a scum-to-chum list, which is unexpected given that he was asking for alternatives to both Joseph and Scola earlier. And what's more, he was asking Mail-mi for alternatives, and apparently Mail-mi is right up there at tier one, too. So yeah, that just doesn't feel super-consistent to me.

PPE 2

Also, I am curious about the connection between Scola and Swowl, there seems to be some history there

PPE: 1

52
yes, what Calamitas said about wanting a sanity-check on the number :-)
But I am still curious for why you started to check it in the first place. Do you think it matters?

53
@Calamitas, would you like to do a quick sanity-check for me? I'm looking at the probablility of having a UB in the game, and I'm still finding it unintuitively low. Have you evaluated any kind of distribution on this?

(I did both the overall naive one, and the one conditioned on having at most 4 T rolls, given that Joseph's flip tells us we're not in a 5*T or 6*T set-up).
Same, I get just 62% for UB. Was really confused.
For the naive one, did forget about conditioning on Mafias flip. But will not change much I assume.

What is the goal for figuring out these probabilities?  To see if ADK is fake claiming UB?  Where Joseph fakes during twilight, then ADK fakes during twilight? 

I don't care how the probabilities work, sometimes the simple solution is the right one.  That is, ADK is the UB and town.
I agree, as I said earlier I think the details don't matter. But I mean, if you get an intuitively too low number for something then asking the other person who has coded the setup is quite natural, I would say.

54
vote: joseph just so we actually get a lynch.
I am confused by this. I just re-read yuma, they (he?she?)
1) pointed out Joseph was scummy
2) forgot to vote for him
3) then said it should gain traction
4) moved (though not just out of not-traction if I see it correctly)
5)Voted Joseph "so we actually get a lynch"
Yuma scumread Joseph hard most of the day, this statement sounds too weak for me

55
@Calamitas, would you like to do a quick sanity-check for me? I'm looking at the probablility of having a UB in the game, and I'm still finding it unintuitively low. Have you evaluated any kind of distribution on this?

(I did both the overall naive one, and the one conditioned on having at most 4 T rolls, given that Joseph's flip tells us we're not in a 5*T or 6*T set-up).
Same, I get just 62% for UB. Was really confused.
For the naive one, did forget about conditioning on Mafias flip. But will not change much I assume.

56
@Calamitas, would you like to do a quick sanity-check for me? I'm looking at the probablility of having a UB in the game, and I'm still finding it unintuitively low. Have you evaluated any kind of distribution on this?

(I did both the overall naive one, and the one conditioned on having at most 4 T rolls, given that Joseph's flip tells us we're not in a 5*T or 6*T set-up).
Same, I get just 62% for UB. Was really confused.

57
b) From the point of a stats person, "Expected number of PRs" is a weird thing to ask for and not the reason why we are doing stats. This sounds much like him not having the stats and not knowing what exactly is interesting

Haha, yes! I wondered whether to townread you for the same reason (i.e. Joseph not asking the right question), except that if you're scum then I can kind of imaging you being smart and devious enough to mislead Joseph with exactly that plan in mind :-P Does an uncoached Joseph even use "expected number" in the technical sense?

I also worried that you were kind of quick to criticise me for talking about stats (e.g. #253) without any confirmation for you that I'm townie... the only way you could be confident that I'm town (especially back at that stage in the game) would be if you're scum and therefore know I'm not. But then being paranoid about you is probably another of my ingrained biases :-)
I can live with being a null-read all-the-time, because my scum game being assumed as perfect :D

And I mean, the reason why I reacted so quickly was the felt "I want to talk about stats to get out of this messy nothing"-mode and relate to that, but saw it as not helpful for town

Tbh, I didn't even think about your alignment in that moment, it seemed like just a bad topic to talk about. Actually, I felt a little bad after commenting "Big promise" on your first stats post in a bit of excited-rush and censored myself to not bring it up again :D

58
Hmm

Scola was the main alternative wagon to joseph; if joseph's partners were both bussing, then killing scola and revealing him as town would be a good way to paint the people who ended the day voting for him as scummy
Good catch, not sure what to make of that though. The choice seems still just super weird to me, need to think about this.

PPE: 1

59
Finally some mail-mi quotes I really don't like. He was pushing against Joseph in a playful way at the perfect time from the perspective from scum. At the point where there wasn't a strong case on Joseph and small, innocent seeming stuff can easily avert attention lynch (see how scola evaporated)

Swan! How are you?? I miss talking to you every day!

You don’t find Joseph’s L-1 shenanigans scummy?

Why no number for voting Joseph?

I'm sorry, Joseph is not a menu option. He is acting like himself, which is decidedly null. Please press 4 to listen to the menu again, or state which option you would like.

I agree that Joseph's behaviour is very Joseph-like, rather than being necessarily role-indicative. That doesn't necessarily make him a bad lynch for D1.

It seems to me that your preference for lynches is currently set to "scum." Are you sure you'd like me to switch that to "players with an easily lynchable meta"?

this game is weirdely slow

We could lynch Joseph

I'm sorry, Joseph is not a valid menu option. Please restate which option you'd like to follow, or press 4 to hear the menu again.

PPE: 1

60
Started doing this but decided to post Space first as I was more confident about them.

In addition to what I quoted first, those two hit my eyes while re-reading. Dylan seemed to me (though I haven't checked this too carefully, i.e. didn't check timestamps and stuff) at one point actively avoiding to comment on Joseph as of thinking what to say. Instead, he made this helpful, but nothing-saying comment.

@ scolapasta -
you have any reads or avenues you like at this point?
your current vote is RVS or no?
you also played the last M game with Joseph, and he was skum then. How you feel about Joseph now?

I don't think we've played before. I'm always town and usually mislynched

Swowl = DatSwan. Username change, not player change.


I mean except last game right?
But unlike last game, I do not see a whole hell of a lot of a reason why you stand out today.

I agree, I don't really think what Joseph did was scummy. I know I'm not the first to say this, but I'm more inclined to look at the people that are most focused on him instead.

ppe 1

Then I saw this one, that struck me as well.
I think I don't trust any of the lurkers (e, Space, Calamitas) right now
1. You're oddly missing Dylan in the "lurkers list".
QUOTE FAIL

But to be honest, the later part of the day did make me doubt this a bit, I mean, I actually agreed with his argument against lynching Joseph; so that part makes sense from a town perspective (also, Space had a similar sentiment).

Nevertheless, scummy I would say. Still need to decide whom out of mail-mi, Dylan and Swowl I prefer as of now.

(Have some quotes on mail-mi going next, didn't carefully checked Swowl yet but seemed to weirdly avoid Joseph)

PPE: many

61

Started doing this but decided to post Space first as I was more confident about them.

In addition to what I quoted first, those two hit my eyes while re-reading. Dylan seemed to me (though I haven't checked this too carefully, i.e. didn't check timestamps and stuff) at one point actively avoiding to comment on Joseph as of thinking what to say. Instead, he made this helpful, but nothing-saying comment.

@ scolapasta -
you have any reads or avenues you like at this point?
your current vote is RVS or no?
you also played the last M game with Joseph, and he was skum then. How you feel about Joseph now?

I don't think we've played before. I'm always town and usually mislynched

Swowl = DatSwan. Username change, not player change.


I mean except last game right?
But unlike last game, I do not see a whole hell of a lot of a reason why you stand out today.

I agree, I don't really think what Joseph did was scummy. I know I'm not the first to say this, but I'm more inclined to look at the people that are most focused on him instead.

ppe 1

Then I saw this one, that struck me as well.
I think I don't trust any of the lurkers (e, Space, Calamitas) right now
1. You're oddly missing Dylan in the "lurkers list".

But to be honest, the later part of the day did make me doubt this a bit, I mean, I actually agreed with his argument against lynching Joseph; so that part makes sense from a town perspective (also, Space had a similar sentiment).

Nevertheless, scummy I would say. Still need to decide whom out of mail-mi, Dylan and Swowl I prefer as of now.

(Have some quotes on mail-mi going next, didn't carefully checked Swowl yet but seemed to weirdly avoid Joseph)

PPE: many

62
I am actually confused about this. First of all, why the heck would ADK claim as UB here. Governors are not really likely and its not like it would even be a certainty whether a hypothetical governor would even save Joseph here (UB is most convenient claim, would be NKed afterwards if actual UB)

I thought that ADK is WIFOM'ing UB/Virgin/Commuter or the like, that explains the non-NK. So we need to answer whether we should treat ADKs thing as an actual UB claim. As of now, I don't treat it as such; what do you think? Even without taking the claim into account, I strongly townread ADK (did not re-read) for his very hard push on Joseph.

Also, I am confused by the choice of Scola as target.

Governor isn't that unlikely (I will admit I haven't crunched any of the actual numbers) and I'm assuming Joseph's claim was an attempt to be save and/or out the actual UB. Other than the IC status, the role isn't all that powerful, and Joseph being saved would be super crappy because we would 1) lose a day, 2) have to spend D2 in a 1v1, and 3) people might use their N1 actions suboptimally with the misinformation. I made the decision to claim
.
Fair enough, sounds sensible (governor likelihood is btw 20% conditioning on a UB if my code is correct); especially after weighing in WIFOM from roles like Virgin or so to avoid the NK.

Did you think about avoiding your NK that way or wasn't that part of your considerations?

PPE: 3

63
Okay, finished re-reading. First round of thoughts on Space:

First off, their claimed not-game-related preference for lynching Joseph is genuine and their posts sound fully honest to me. While I wouldn't put it past them to fake that as scum, this makes me townread them.

Why no number for voting Joseph?

I'm sorry, Joseph is not a menu option. He is acting like himself, which is decidedly null. Please press 4 to listen to the menu again, or state which option you would like.

I agree that Joseph's behaviour is very Joseph-like, rather than being necessarily role-indicative. That doesn't necessarily make him a bad lynch for D1.

Ok, really the only people who haven't commented directly on Joseph and/or his wagon are e, Space, and Calamitas, and I'm inclined to think that's as much due to their inactivity (>24 hours since last post for all 3) than to any intentional ignoring.

Mine is partly due to intentional ignoring. I can never really pass up a reason to vote Joseph, but I'm trying to be a better person.

As for Calamitas, perhaps I'm finally in a game again with the one person around here who's still less fond of making D1 reads than I am :-P I'm sure if we get a good converastion on probabilities of role distributions going, Camamitas and I will have a lot more to contribute...

Ok, really the only people who haven't commented directly on Joseph and/or his wagon are e, Space, and Calamitas, and I'm inclined to think that's as much due to their inactivity (>24 hours since last post for all 3) than to any intentional ignoring.

Mine is partly due to intentional ignoring. I can never really pass up a reason to vote Joseph, but I'm trying to be a better person.

As for Calamitas, perhaps I'm finally in a game again with the one person around here who's still less fond of making D1 reads than I am :-P I'm sure if we get a good converastion on probabilities of role distributions going, Camamitas and I will have a lot more to contribute...
Can you work out the probabilities and expected number of each PR in the game?

Also, the question by Joseph sounds genuinely curious and when I first read this I definitely felt like Space was genuinely in "stats-sharing and math is exciting" mode. I am highly confident Space would have shared their stats in N0 with the scumteam.

Some thoughts I am having
1) My gut feeling is that this conversation wouldn't have taken place that way if Joseph had already gotten a full list of probabilites in N0. First, because

a) I would feel super scary to ask about it in that situation and the tone doesn't sound overthinking, Space sounds natural as well

b) From the point of a stats person, "Expected number of PRs" is a weird thing to ask for and not the reason why we are doing stats. This sounds much like him not having the stats and not knowing what exactly is interesting

Overall, townreading Space after this.

PPE: Some

64
Call me the shepherd, cuz I've apparently got a lot of sheep haha.

I voted scola for seeming to use a joke RVS vote to create an actual wagon on Joseph as the 3rd vote on the wagon. It was a real vote since my LL vote was clearly RVS and that was the first scummy thing I'd noticed, but I did not expect that to kick off a wagon with that little substance. I still stand by it being a slightly scummy post, so I'm leaving my vote for now, that was just unexpected to come back and see the wagon that blew up. I agree with Didds there was probably scum somewhere behind me on the wagon.
I don't think I like this

65
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: faust's setup rerun
« on: May 26, 2020, 08:27:05 am »
if anyone's getting to be a pseudo-IC, it should be ADK with the uncontested claimed UB status. Though I need to go back and check to what extent the scumteam could know if we're in a game situation where there isn't a UB at all


All games include a Universal Back-Up.

From the setup
Single-V rolls lead to Restless Spirits being converted to UB here. But I don't see why Space thinks the details are relevant here, UB is by far and large the most likely role and claiming VT would have done not much good for dying Joseph.

PPE: 2

66
Also, fantastic Lynch everyone. I take zero credit for the actual Lynch, but will gladly assume my position as pseudo-IC with the hammer
I wouldn't go that far. Need to re-read, but I would much rather townread the people who pushed the wagon before it manifested as basically the only choice. Busing right at the end is not that unimaginable

67
I am actually confused about this. First of all, why the heck would ADK claim as UB here. Governors are not really likely and its not like it would even be a certainty whether a hypothetical governor would even save Joseph here (UB is most convenient claim, would be NKed afterwards if actual UB)

I thought that ADK is WIFOM'ing UB/Virgin/Commuter or the like, that explains the non-NK. So we need to answer whether we should treat ADKs thing as an actual UB claim. As of now, I don't treat it as such; what do you think? Even without taking the claim into account, I strongly townread ADK (did not re-read) for his very hard push on Joseph.

Also, I am confused by the choice of Scola as target.

68
I am really curious for the flip

69
If a governor is thinking about using their power on Joseph, don't. He's lying
You seem really confident about this, why so?

70
Forum Games / Re: Quarantine call
« on: May 24, 2020, 08:30:54 am »
Sorry things got crazy tonight. I will probably be there tomorrow though.
Hype, hype, hype

71
I may or may not be around for deadline
Giving you time to claim doesn't really make sense if you post that stuff. You really should have claimed then and there

72
Keeping my vote on Joseph, will assumably not be around until the deadline

73
I don't think scum!joseph votes there because he really thinks the lynch could go through. He votes because he's hoping it makes him look towny (and if scola is his partner, it has a good chance of getting rid of his wagon). But his immediate unvote makes it look, to me, like he became concerned about the optics of the vote right after he placed it, which is a scum mindset

Well, that's at least a possible narrative. I think I thought the wording of the unvote was what people were talking about. I forget who but someone made the comment "Joseph's joke unvote" is scummier than "Unvote" would have been, and I think that's what I don't get.

If Joseph had said "on second thought, unvote, I don't want someone to derphammer" or "actually on second thought I don't think scola's scum, unvote" that would be one thing. But the saying that he was joking makes it seem like he feels like he concerned, not about whether he was voting for scum, but how people would view his vote
From my experience, trying to analyze what Joseph was thinking never leads to good results

74
But I don't worry about the state of the world all that much more than I did before the outbreak.
I am curious, do you mean that you usually worry a lot about the state of the world or that you don’t even now? If it’s the former, I can very much relate

75
And that was a joke, so Unvote

I don't get it

The best jokes are the ones that need to be explained more.  But actually, Joseph can do some crazy stuff, I don't think voting to L-1 here is a scum tell

Voting to L-1 isn't scummy but immediately unvoting and calling it a joke is
It is not scummy in the sense that Joseph is more likely to do that as scum than as town. Joseph does crazy (seeming?) stuff all-the-time

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