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26

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 31, 2020, 08:43:21 am »

I've done a lot of D2 re-reading today. The first thing that stands out to me is mail-mi's wagon analysis.

Here's the final vote count from yesterday, color-coded for people we know are town/scum. This analysis will be based on simply the vote count and what I remember from yesterday, with more details (hopefully) to come.

In that long post, he basically insists that there must be at least one scum on the scola wagon (which consisted of Dylan32, mail-mi, Swowl), and the remaining one probably on Joseph.

If I were in the middle of a three-person wagon that I was dead-certain contained at least one scum, I'd be pretty happy voting my 50/50 chance that one of the others is scum.

However Mail-mi ignored those great odds, and instead does a load of PoE with excuses like Didds having had towny-seeming reactions and LL being on Joseph much of D1, in order to whittle the six unknowns on Joseph's wagon down to two, and then votes one of those two instead. Why is that more sensible than voting for either Dylan or Swowl, with no messy PoE necessary to get down to those two?

E actually started to pick at this a little but then sadly went off in the direction of trying to sell the Dylan lynch Mail-mi instead of Mail-mi's interest in voting e himself. However the two of them (e and Mail-mi) still had an interesting little exchange around #430-#436, but I still feel like we never get to the bottom of the real reason that Mail-mi wants to vote within a lynchpool that requires significant PoE rather than a lynchpool of the same size that is literally all the players who were off-wagon. (His later post includes me in the off-wagon pool and also Calamitas in the on-wagon pool, again meaning equal-sized pools).

Vote: Mail-mi

Thank you space, I noticed it and spoke about it but didn't formulate it as clearly as you did and forgot to push on it further as I was distracted by missing the caveat. This is weird indeed.

27

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 31, 2020, 08:40:35 am »

I don’t like about Dylan though that except from LaLight none of my townreads is on that wagon. No ADK, no Space, no me.

I mean... ADK is everyone's town read. You are yourself... so you have 2 town reads... and half of them are on that wagon (at time of this post actually ADK switched so 2/3)... but even if it is just 50% of them... like how many of your town pool do you expect to be in consensus?

No, I am confident about the towniness of 5 people in total. And 1 of them is on that wagon.

Which makes the motives of almost everyone on that wagon questionable.

28

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 30, 2020, 03:54:24 pm »

There's a third option here, which is scum!Dylan and scum!mail-mi

Yeah, but in that case mail-mi is just a good choice

29

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 30, 2020, 12:29:06 pm »

Did some rereading of D2 in particular and I think that I'm ok with

vote: Dylan

This is L-1

I'm good with a Dylan lynch. I mean, from my perspective it's either him or Swowl (or both) and as of now I don't have a preference on either one.

Consider this an Intent to hammer to encourage a claim.

What about e?

30

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 30, 2020, 12:23:59 pm »

I don’t like about Dylan though that except from LaLight none of my townreads is on that wagon. No ADK, no Space, no me.

Also, note that no one except me pushed for mail-mi over Dylan really and this is something scum should  definitely do if we have scum!Dylan and town!mail-mi. My analysis (or rather the fact that mail-mi’s case is sufficiently strong) should have been the perfect platform for pulling that off and no-one did that.

We really should go to mail-mi

31

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 30, 2020, 11:27:51 am »

I think Dylan should claim

32

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 30, 2020, 11:23:04 am »

Just re-read Dylan and mail-mi and I am less confident about them than I used to be a few days ago even though not much has changed.

Still slight preference of mail-mi over Dylan, though gap to e has closed from reads alone. Not willing to go there as of now though as the people pushing for e are my biggest scumreads which is by no means a good sign.

Still unsure about Swowl and cannot reread right now.

PPE: 1

33

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 30, 2020, 11:13:26 am »

I'm not lynching LL, didds or space today

I woke up this morning having questions about this. Why am I (and others) townreading Space? They were off-wagon just like dylan, swowl, and me. I might be townreading them just cause they're Space. I'm adding them to my reread list.

I posted my reasons for townreading them somewhere

Could you point me to them?

Was phone posting yesterday, here we go

Okay, finished re-reading. First round of thoughts on Space:

34

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 29, 2020, 01:12:39 pm »

I still prefer mail-mi over Dylan but would be more than willing to lynch either rather than anything else.

No one else willing to go for mail-mi?

35

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 29, 2020, 01:10:32 pm »

I'm not lynching LL, didds or space today

I woke up this morning having questions about this. Why am I (and others) townreading Space? They were off-wagon just like dylan, swowl, and me. I might be townreading them just cause they're Space. I'm adding them to my reread list.

I posted my reasons for townreading them somewhere

36

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 29, 2020, 07:12:21 am »

What do you all think about making Dylan and/or mail-mi claim?

@Space,ADK,LaLight in particular

37

Mafia Game Threads / Re: BM31: Random Word Mafia

« on: May 28, 2020, 12:25:33 pm »

So, what setup do you guys want to do?  I'm not really connected to any setup so I'll just pick something somebody suggests.  I don't want any setup that allows people to post in more than one place at once (like daychat or neighbors), and I don't want too many people because upholding this rule will be crazy with that many people.

I'll edit this post with setup info once we figure out what the setup will be.

Stormlight seems good Small, easy, and manageable!

38

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 28, 2020, 07:18:35 am »

The reasoning I based my thoughts around was exactly that I think he was expecting an off-wagon scumbuddy to come in and hammer, especially because he hinted at having been looking at who was watching the thread. Isn't that something that might be really quite plausible? I think Joseph is aware that scum likes coordinated quickhammers (albeit ignoring the fact that that's mostly at mylo etc!) and was trying to set something up so that one of his buddies could swoop in and hammer before any townies got cold feet. Yes, it's definitely sub-optimal play, as others have already pointed out, but it feels very much like the sort of scheme Joseph woudl try.

I mean, the theory sounds good but I am not sure you aren't overly cynical here. I mean, it would not be suboptimal but downright lunatic to pull something like that off with no need on D1.

But I mean, he refused to say who was online which has a pretty good reason in that theory...(in hindsight, we should have pressed him hard then and there)

@LaLight: Do you remember any game where Joseph did something on this order of craziness

39

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)

« on: May 28, 2020, 07:13:26 am »

I am not convinced at all by this analysis. This is just some talk about wagons instead of doing a real analysis on the scummy people. He says Dylan or Swowl is scum but neither analyses them nor votes for either.

I stand by my vote for now.

Perhaps you didn't read my caveat at the beginning of the analysis? Here, let me quote it for you:

This analysis will be based on simply the vote count and what I remember from yesterday, with more details (hopefully) to come.

And as you can see in the post, I analyzed both the people on wagon and off wagon. I thought that e ended up being the scummiest, followed by swowl and dylan. I found myself agreeing with dylan's points on e, and so I decided to vote there. I mean, what more do you want?

Didn't see the caveat, sorry

40

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 28, 2020, 07:11:07 am »

because we were partners in a long game

If would appreciate you summarizing his playing style as scum (vs. town if possible)

41

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 28, 2020, 07:08:57 am »

That being said one last thing - What do you make of the fact that they never like... did anything? This is to say they went out of their way to try to assumedly set someone up (for being online or whatever), but then never used that set up. Not even as a last ditch effort.
I think that is probably getting too far into tbh... but since you seem to of looked at it to the extent I have looked at it - does that ping you as like just crazy weird?

I don't understand what you mean by that

42

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 27, 2020, 03:06:49 pm »

-snip-

I love how e is absent most of D1, comes in and immediately starts pushing away from Joseph (in fact inventing a new wagon to do so at a time when things were starting to consolidate a bit), hammers in a noncommittal tone for the sake of getting a lynch (which is NAI), then comes out D2 claiming psuedo-IC for the hammer and throwing shade at people who didn't like the D1 Joseph wagon without so much as a shred of acknowledgement that he did the same thing but was lucky enough to be online at the deadline in order to hammer and get himself on wagon.

Vote: e

I mean, obvious (and valid) points, I only take umbrage with the fact that I was lucky to be online at deadline.

In fact, had I been scum I could very well have been lucky enough to not be online.

There is the angle that I saw the inevitable and went for the town cred after an abysmal D1. And sure. I deserve that. But I will try to do better today.

Here's dylan's case, and I think it's stronger than people are making it out to be. I can also see e coming out of a taxing scum game (Falling Skies) and rolling scum again and not being super excited about it, which explains some of his lack of substance day 1.

Also, I think you were "lucky enough" to be online to take the hammer and get the towncred, as you say. You could have been lucky enough to be offline, but then someone else would almost definitely hammer, considering how close we were to deadline.

I agree it's decent, that's why e is on my "might be next in line" list. I don't give them significant towncredit for hammering and I agree that the way he started the day is indicative of him not having a town mindset.

Your case and the one on Dylan are better though imo.

43

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)

« on: May 27, 2020, 09:54:54 am »

vote: joseph just so we actually get a lynch.

I am confused by this. I just re-read yuma, they (he?she?)
1) pointed out Joseph was scummy
2) forgot to vote for him
3) then said it should gain traction
4) moved (though not just out of not-traction if I see it correctly)
5)Voted Joseph "so we actually get a lynch"
Yuma scumread Joseph hard most of the day, this statement sounds too weak for me

@Space

44

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)

« on: May 27, 2020, 08:29:39 am »

Day 1 Final Vote Count

Joseph2302 (7): A Drowned Kernel, LaLight, WestCoastDidds, Calamitas, scolapasta, yuma, 2.71828.....
scolapasta (3): Dylan32, mail-mi, Swowl
2.71828..... (1): SpaceAnemone
WestCoastDidds (1): Joseph2302

Not Voting (0):

With 12 alive, it took 7 to lynch. Twilight begins now and lasts until May 24, 2020, 03:30:00 pm.

Here's the final vote count from yesterday, color-coded for people we know are town/scum. This analysis will be based on simply the vote count and what I remember from yesterday, with more details (hopefully) to come.

We're looking at 2 more scum. I think it's unlikely that both of them are on scola, but I think one of them is. So I think there's definitely scum in [mail-mi, Swowl, Dylan32]. From my perspective, there's scum in [Swowl, Dylan32]. Honorable mention goes to Space.

There's a lot of players on Joseph (6, actually). ADK is obv!town, if he's scum, gg. I think LaLight was on Joseph the whole day, which is a ballsy scum move if they're scum, so I think I'm handing them townpoints for it. WCD got some heat yesterday and I think her reaction to it was townie. I found Calamitas scummy yesterday, and this isn't a bad bussing spot to be in, so minor scum points.

I think the 2 scummiest on the wagon are yuma and e, but I don't think it can be both of them.
 
Scum!yuma scenario: I can see scum!yuma coming in, voting Joseph to L-1, and hoping for a classic F.DS end-of-d1 scramble to lynch someone else, then town!e hammers and crushes all of scum!yuma's dreams.

Scum!e scenario: Exactly what e himself described: going for the hammer on his buddy for a last-ditch attempt at towncred after being absent for most of D1.

Hm, now that I'm thinking about this, I think I'm starting to agree with Dylan on e. I need to do a reread, but let's not forget that e came in in the middle of the day (when the competing wagons were still scola and Joseph) and tried to start a whole new thing on WCD, which Joseph latched onto (as well as Swowl). I would not be surprised at and am currently calling a Swowl/e/Joseph scumteam.

vote: e

I am not convinced at all by this analysis. This is just some talk about wagons instead of doing a real analysis on the scummy people. He says Dylan or Swowl is scum but neither analyses them nor votes for either.

I stand by my vote for now.

45

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)

« on: May 27, 2020, 08:24:20 am »

That was a knee jerk reaction. Just so there isn't any dumb confusion, I'm the UB

Interesting. Theres no point in claiming this if ADK is scum, so they're definitely town. And it seems I was wrong about Joseph.

I think you're reading too much into this specific post.

I am still curious, what were your thoughts in the moment you were writing this?

46

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 27, 2020, 08:12:33 am »

Let me change my categories, see if it clarifies.

Want to lynch: Dylan, mail-mi
Would participate in a lynch: calamitas, Yuma, WCD, Swowl
Don't want to Lynch: space, LaLight
Would not Lynch: ADK, e

I feel like Swowl has the greatest potential to move up to the want to lynch category, especially after calamitas' last posts

Okay, so we actually don't disagree on much. My categories are

Want to lynch today: Mail-mi, Dylan
Might be next-in-line: Yuma, Swowl, e
Null: WCD, LaLight
Town: Space
IC: ADK

47

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 27, 2020, 07:48:48 am »

Current reads:

Scum tier
Dylan, mail-mi

Scummy(ish)
Calamitas

Merits a reread, I don't remember much about them
yuma, WCD, Swowl

Townie(ish)
Space, LaLight

Town
ADK, e

Btw, this table is not distinguishing between Dylan and mail-mi. A bit weird given that you think that the difference is so monumental to merit my being scummyish despite decidedly towny actions for my non-confident choice between the two *shrug

48

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 27, 2020, 07:37:47 am »

I am super confused by e, their argument against me doesn't make sense in the slightest? As I stated, I think all three of Dylan, mail-mi and swowl are scummy and thought the mail-mi case to be a bit stronger. It's not like Dylan is orders of magnitude scummier than mail-mi; if so please analyse them side-by-side and tell me why.

All my actions are extremely clear from my town perspective. As I said, I didn't think Josephs stuff was alignment indicative. Joseph does weird stuff all the time. Thus I did nullread him but stated (or at least thought when Space was posting similar stuff, I didn't want to insult Joseph at the time) from the very beginning onwards that Joseph is one of the better misslynchs and thus my favourite target from the nullread people. This is very much my style in every single game, you modded XKCD mafia. I am absolutely terrible at making reads D1 and base my decisions on general principles and sometimes single posts I think are somewhat indicative as I judge basically everything as null D1.

Before I went to bed, I did the action that would most likely ensure a lynch and it did as town!me would do every single time there.

Then on D2, I re-read, saw Dylan's scummy post, noticed it and made a quick comment before going offline to . If you don't think I am more likely to do that as town then you are clearly miss-calibrated. While continuing to read, I saw more stuff indicating Dylan but also saw a potentially coherent town-narrative. Some posts felt genuine to me. I stand by my case made and it's as comprehensive as anything I have seen in this game.

Mail-mi does stuff very similar to Dylan and as I wanted to leave a vote before going offline for some time, I voted mail-mi as expressed in #406. I explicitly stated that I don't have a strong preference, note the "I think", "for now", "also don't like" as I didn't have the time to carefully weigh the evidence against all parties involved. 

I really don't get why you are so confident that mail-mi is town and Dylan scum. I am genuinely uncertain who is more likely out of those two to be scum and I think I have presented two good cases.

49

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 1)

« on: May 26, 2020, 10:36:44 am »

That was a knee jerk reaction. Just so there isn't any dumb confusion, I'm the UB

Interesting. Theres no point in claiming this if ADK is scum, so they're definitely town. And it seems I was wrong about Joseph.

Still here for another post

Just noticed that the second half ("seems I was wrong") is too weak given the "definitely" in the first part. I wouldn't have phrased it that way if I just saw something that fully convinced me that my belief was bullshit.

I think all in all vote: mail-mi for now, but I also don't like Dylan and Swowl as I said.

Townreading Space, ADK (basically IC)

Confused: e, yuma

Null: LaLight, West

50

Mafia Game Threads / Re: M127: Customer Service Hotline Mafia (Day 2)

« on: May 26, 2020, 10:25:28 am »

yes, what Calamitas said about wanting a sanity-check on the number :-)

But I am still curious for why you started to check it in the first place. Do you think it matters?

It's good to have independent verification, because there may be other inferences I want to do with my system, and as you've now agreed, that number wasn't exactly what our guts expected.

Also, it's useful to know that you agreed so quickly, because it means that scum!you could easily have know that UB wasn't as high-likelihood as most people would have thought, so probably you weren't coaching that behind the scenes. (It's worth noting here that apparently the Mafia QT opens in twilight, which I hadn't noticed/remembered till I went back to check the fine print in the set-up).

Uff, I hear that with Twilight for the first time. Now I am getting paranoid as well. Though I honestly don't see why you think this is reassuring in relation to me? If anything shouldn't you be more sceptical of me now, as this increases the value of all sorts of UB fakeclaims? I need to think this through in a calmer moment

Being off for a while, I think I did quite make up for my lurking at D1 ;-) I almost forgot how much fun real mafia is