My new favorite opponent ARTjoMS and I just finished playing a match - with identical starts:
http://dominion.isotropic.org/gamelog/201204/12/game-20120412-100225-18d2a278.htmlWe both open pearl diver / jester.
I'm first player, and draw Pearl Diver, Estate, and 3 Coppers.
I play the pearl diver, draw a copper, and bottom card is an Estate.
I elect to leave the estate on the bottom - and I'm happy because I now know for sure that my next hand is Jester + 3 Coppers + Estate. My Jester won't miss the shuffle.
Fast forward a while (say around turn 10ish), and ART feels that I am being very lucky. Naturally, I feel the opposite. I've only played my jester twice, it's hit copper both times, and he's jestered a tournament from me (note that jester hitting a good card is really painful - not only does your opponent get something good, but the card misses that shuffle for you). I managed to get first province, but the decks are big enough, and it at the start of the reshuffle, so I won't see it for blocking or tournament winning for a while.
I don't feel that I've made any major errors... perhaps my 2nd terminal of merchant ship was a bad idea // too early? (Since we both opened Jester / Pearl Diver, it couldn't have been that offensive... although suspect that WW And Geronimoooo will suggest that MerchantShip was the way to go).
So I ask him what he thinks my error was that justifies an accusation of luck.
12:48 Captain_Frisk: boooo
12:49 ARTjoMS: well if u win this... then soz but it is pure luck.
12:49 Captain_Frisk: you think i've made major errors?
12:50 ARTjoMS: pearl diver 1st turn
12:50 ARTjoMS: u left estate as last card
12:50 Captain_Frisk: why wouldn't i?
12:50 ARTjoMS: u dont mind curse?
12:50 Captain_Frisk: if i didn't, then jester could have missed shuffle
12:50 ARTjoMS: chances are...
12:50 ARTjoMS: smaaaaallllllll
12:51 Captain_Frisk: i'll post this in the forum after
12:51 Captain_Frisk: i'm curious
So - ARTjoMS has a 42-50% (its somewhere in the middle, but I'm too lazy to figure it out) chance of having a Jester in his hand on T3.
If he has the jester, than leaving the estate guarantees 100% that I will receive a curse, but I still get to play my jester, and I have a $5 buy.
If I top deck the estate, then the probabilities are now:
20% - He hits my jester. This is absolutely the worst case. Not only do I not get to play my jester, but he picks up a free copy, AND my T4 is a $3 buy. I feel that my chances of winning the game at this point would be very very low.
60% - He hits a copper. This is marginally better than hitting an estate. I'll only have $4 on this turn... which isn't a big deal because a tournament is probably not significantly worse than picking up a merchant ship or a jester.
20% - He hits my other estate. No change.
I didn't give it this much thought when I made the decision, and after review, I'm still feeling pretty confident that this wasn't an error in play. Picking up a curse instead of a copper is less good for sure, but the loss of the jester would be absolutely crippling.
So the question to the dominionstrategy audience is:
Who is right? Have we all just learned a new trick?
Disclaimer: ARTjoMS may still be angry at me for this absolutely ridiculous luck based come from behind win:
http://councilroom.com/game?game_id=game-20120411-145350-62684b4e.html, in which ARTjoMS correctly pointed out that I should have bought a gold instead of my 2nd wharf, and I only managed to win due to some stupid lucky desperation thief purchase and play. My lifetime record against him is now 3-2-1. It probably should be: 2-4-0.
