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Goko Dominion Online / Re: Cute little idea for game based on game logs
« on: April 22, 2014, 10:40:08 am »
I am confused. You get to see the kingdom.
I agree that there is a lot of noise/randomness in the which strategy will work better, since the edge between different strategies chosen by good players will probably tend to be small (good players tend to not execute very poor strategies). You could pick the strategy that will win 60% of the time on a given board, and by definition, you'd be wrong 40% of the time.
But if you consistently pick the strategy with the edge, as executed by very good but imperfect players on both sides, your winning percentage will show it, even if each kingdom shows up only once in the logs.
I agree that this would be very hard to actually aggregate up to find strategy A is best, or strategy A is better than strategy B, since even accurately classifying strategies is difficult.
But on the flip side, the problem with simulators in practice is that they execute complex strategies poorly.
I agree that there is a lot of noise/randomness in the which strategy will work better, since the edge between different strategies chosen by good players will probably tend to be small (good players tend to not execute very poor strategies). You could pick the strategy that will win 60% of the time on a given board, and by definition, you'd be wrong 40% of the time.
But if you consistently pick the strategy with the edge, as executed by very good but imperfect players on both sides, your winning percentage will show it, even if each kingdom shows up only once in the logs.
I agree that this would be very hard to actually aggregate up to find strategy A is best, or strategy A is better than strategy B, since even accurately classifying strategies is difficult.
But on the flip side, the problem with simulators in practice is that they execute complex strategies poorly.
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