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Messages - rrenaud

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101
Goko Dominion Online / Re: slow players
« on: June 11, 2013, 12:33:17 pm »
Lots of players play games sequentially.  At the very least, you probably get a timestamp of when games end.

If two games ended less than say, one hour apart (maybe need some tweaking here), they were likely played back to back.  Then you have a rough idea about a particular games duration. 

You probably have hundreds of thousands of back to back games by players.

From this, you can try to build a model of player slowness from the game by game durations.

Yes, yes, yes, I understand that this is noisy, that the f'ing minion secret chamber game will just take forever and it's not your fault, that sometimes you grab a snack or make a telephone call before starting your next game, that sometimes the games are slow because of the other players, etc.  The data isn't going to perfect, the model certainly won't be perfect, but it is still plausibly useful.

Bonus points:  Make the goko extension grab the player speed data and display it before the match starts.

102
Goko Dominion Online / Re: slow players
« on: June 11, 2013, 11:44:46 am »
Try to infer play pace from the goko logs?

103
Quote
What would it take for a card or combo to be banned?

A huge fuckup by Donald X and his playtesters.

104
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Combo: Tactician-Vault
« on: June 09, 2013, 12:53:32 pm »
I wrote about a game where I used this combo with the addition of a cellar.  It was the most stable deck I've ever built.

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=1311.0

105
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The WW Rating System
« on: May 25, 2013, 10:57:41 am »
That's not automated, unless you've cloned yourself ;P

106
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Combo: Scheme/Conspirator
« on: May 25, 2013, 10:49:58 am »
Councilroom confirms it.

http://councilroom.com/supply_win?&targets=Scheme%2CConspirator&interaction=true&nested=false&unconditional=true

Conspirator is 5th best support for Scheme, Scheme is 8th best support for Conspirator.

107
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The WW Rating System
« on: May 25, 2013, 10:46:41 am »
Automate.

If things don't break for some unforeseen reason, you should have to spend 0 minutes per day updating the rankings.

108
Maybe someone else should take 1wheel's offer to maintain the chrome extension?  Or maybe nutki can email 1wheel when he has new versions.

See 1wheel's post here.

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=6788.msg234749#msg234749

109
Other Games / Re: Puzzle Strike
« on: May 17, 2013, 12:44:05 pm »
You should hear theory rant about Puzzle Strike and Sirlin.

110
The stats here might be useful.

http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=20.msg438#msg438

Gwinn's estimate seems reasonable, in light of that data.

111
Dominion General Discussion / Re: How do you guys not get bored?
« on: May 06, 2013, 03:03:00 pm »
The solution is there to be a persistent threat of manual game review/account block.  You cheat, we'll ban you and keep your money.  Keep a healthy sense of fear in players.

112
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The WW Rating System
« on: May 03, 2013, 03:38:49 pm »
The probability your probabilistic model assigns to reality is a solid measure.  There are other task specific measures that people often care about, but doing well on that measure will tend to mean good things for your system and will likely be pretty correlated with task specific measures.

A long time ago, I evaluated a few rating systems I was interested at the time (TopCoder, Elo, Glicko), you can check out my writeup/slides if interested.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/lr3dwgk6w0c0c6s/slides.pdf
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ufyr22ywlytiqjx/writeup.pdf

113
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The WW Rating System
« on: May 03, 2013, 11:35:34 am »
Others have implemented other systems.  You don't have to implement them.  You just need to use them.  Microsoft publishes the game data set they used to design TrueSkill.  I can hunt down an iso dominion game set in CSV if you want.

IMO, the one true measure of a probabilistic prediction system is the likelihood it assigns to the unobserved event stream you are trying to model. 

114
Maybe he wants to play 20 to 50 games of dominion in his life, he doesn't care to know what makes the game really tick, and he just wants to have fun with a quick heuristic that avoids trap cards.

Not everyone lives and breaths Dominion, and I think that's okay :).

115
Here is a decent list of the cards in those expansions. 

Base, Intrigue, and Prosperity card rankings.

Click quality, and it will sort the cards by their ability to help people win games on average according to a simple model I developed.  The model tries to mimic bunch of card rankings from experts in this community based mostly on observed play data from millions of games.

Of course, some of the most winning cards are arguably the most frustrating (Witch, Mountebank).  Some of the bad cards (eg, Workshop) can shine when paired with a good combo, like Gardens.

116
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The WW Rating System
« on: April 26, 2013, 06:18:01 pm »
The game count lets other people easily debug if you've missed some of their games, for instance.

117
Dominion General Discussion / Re: The WW Rating System
« on: April 21, 2013, 05:26:04 pm »
I think DStu has downloaded the all the goko logs and probably has a system set up to do so.

118
General Discussion / Re: Google Code Jam
« on: April 15, 2013, 08:44:38 pm »
You can modify that solution so that it can return the kth best strategy in O(Q) time (==length to print it out) by keeping around some back pointers without an asymptotic slow down in time usage, as long as k < M.  The memory usage would increase to O(M*Q) instead of O(M).

The key insight to solve it used by that answer is that a top M solution after k steps contained a top M solution after k-1 steps.  So you never need to keep around that many partial answers to get a great final answer.

119
General Discussion / Re: Google Code Jam
« on: April 13, 2013, 03:36:45 pm »
It's not really scary at all.

I thought it was cool because so many programming contest problems are dynamic programming problems, and my intended solution isn't really DP.  But alas, there is a simple DP solution ;(.

There are plenty of solutions online.  This one is simple/good.

http://chrk.atwebpages.com/index.php?title=Test_Passing_Probability

My intended solution is basically finding the top M shortest paths in a very structured/restricted graph induced by the test questions.  Anytime you pick a particular response for a question, you pay a cost that is proportional to the log of the probability of it being right.  And then the cost of a set of responses(=path) is the sum of the individual costs.  The independence assumptions means that all the good response sets are very related so you can explore only the best ones without suffering from the exponential explosion of brute force.

120
General Discussion / Re: Google Code Jam
« on: April 13, 2013, 01:05:38 pm »

121
General Discussion / Re: rspeer's company featured on mashable
« on: April 12, 2013, 06:35:30 pm »
Maybe search for Rob Speer ;P.

122
Goko Dominion Online / Re: Victory point tracker
« on: April 12, 2013, 05:30:30 pm »
That all seems reasonable to me.  You probably want to include the #vp text by default if the user is using the plugin.

124
Goko Dominion Online / Re: An unfamiliar bane
« on: April 09, 2013, 05:24:30 pm »
Definitely familiar.  Potion > $2.

125
I am taking the free Linode memory upgrade on the server that runs the forum.  Linode says this should take about 20 minutes after it starts.

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