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Messages - ghostofmars

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51
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto 2
« on: February 20, 2020, 02:14:09 am »
Summary

team ghostofmars/Jimmmmm/Watno
0 Interception tokens
0 Miscommunication tokens
Round 1 Prime - Post - Zero (code: 2-1-4, guess: 2-1-4, interception: N/A)
Round 2 Fire - Water - Ice (code: 1-2-4, guess: 1-2-4, interception: 1-3-4)
Round 3 Mister - Corner - Murder (code: 3-1-4, guess: 3-1-4, interception: 4-1-3)
Round 4 Heartbeat - Spill - Switch (code: 2-3-1, guess 2-3-1, interception: 2-3-4)
Clues for 1 Post, Fire, Corner. Switch
Clues for 2 Prime, Water, Heartbeat
Clues for 3 Mister, Spill
Clues for 4 Zero, Ice, Murder

team bitwise/faust/scolapasta
0 Interception tokens
1 Miscommunication tokens
Round 1 Sun - Culture - Oil (code: 1-2-4, guess: 1-2-4, interception: N/A)
Round 2 Building - Quake - Wizard (code: 2-3-4, guess: 2-3-4, interception: 2-4-3)
Round 3 Rise - Move - Join (code: 1-4-2, guess: 2-4-3, interception: 3-2-4)
Round 4 Box - Apostrophe - Land (code: 4-1-2, guess: 4-1-2, interception: 3-2-4)
Clues for 1 Sun, Rise, Apostrophe
Clues for 2 Culture, Building, Join, Land
Clues for 3 Quake
Clues for 4 Oil, Wizard, Move, Box

52
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto 2
« on: February 18, 2020, 04:42:33 pm »
Watno and Jimmmmm guess 2-3-1 which is correct.

53
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto 2
« on: February 18, 2020, 11:07:53 am »
Our guess for your clue is 3 - 2 - 4.

54
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto 2
« on: February 16, 2020, 01:06:25 am »
Heartbeat - Spill - Switch

55
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto 2
« on: February 11, 2020, 03:14:24 am »
Our guess for your Round 2 clue is:
1-3-4
Wow, that was close.

56
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto 2
« on: February 08, 2020, 07:34:21 am »
That is correct

57
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto 2
« on: February 05, 2020, 02:37:41 am »
I created a QT for our team. Here is the first clue
prime - post - zero

58
General Discussion / Re: Maths thread.
« on: February 04, 2020, 03:22:10 am »
I worked out the details, I get 88.8% chance of success with the strategy outlined above.

Say p is the probability team X is correct and k the analogous probability for team Y and Z. Then the resulting probability that the combination of team X, Y, and Z is correct if they follow the strategy is p k^2 + 2 k (1-k). This leads to the following optimal team sizes for a given total number of players.
  N    X   Y=Z    p        k    pk^2+2k(1-k)
  9    3    3   75.00%   75.00%   79.69%
 15    9    3   79.69%   75.00%   82.32%
 21   15    3   82.32%   75.00%   83.81%
 27   21    3   83.81%   75.00%   84.64%
 33   27    3   84.64%   75.00%   85.11%
 39   21    9   83.81%   79.69%   85.59%
 45   27    9   84.64%   79.69%   86.12%
 51   33    9   85.11%   79.69%   86.42%
 57   39    9   85.59%   79.69%   86.72%
 63   45    9   86.12%   79.69%   87.06%
 69   51    9   86.42%   79.69%   87.25%
 75   45   15   86.12%   82.32%   87.47%
 81   51   15   86.42%   82.32%   87.67%
 87   57   15   86.72%   82.32%   87.88%
 93   63   15   87.06%   82.32%   88.11%
 99   69   15   87.25%   82.32%   88.23%
105   75   15   87.47%   82.32%   88.38%
111   81   15   87.67%   82.32%   88.52%
117   87   15   87.88%   82.32%   88.66%
123   93   15   88.11%   82.32%   88.82%
135   93   21   88.11%   83.81%   89.02%
141   99   21   88.23%   83.81%   89.11%

59
General Discussion / Re: Maths thread.
« on: February 03, 2020, 05:17:28 pm »
So I thought about more about the method and by optimizing the size of the teams, you will probably get to ~90% success rate. @bitwise: I wonder if what you are looking for is just this optimization or whether there is an even better technique we should find?

60
General Discussion / Re: Maths thread.
« on: January 31, 2020, 04:14:06 pm »
I found a way to go beyond 75%.

Let's define the 3 player results as correct (C) with 75% chance and false (F) with 25% chance. Then you can construct a 9 player solution with three teams X, Y and Z, in the following way
-X announces their result if Y and Z would be both correct.
-Y announces their result if Z would be wrong.
-Z announces their result if Y would be wrong.
C C C = 42.2%
C C F = 14.1%
C F C = 14.1%
C F F =  4.7%
F C C = 14.1%
F C F =  4.7%
F F C =  4.7%
F F F =  1.6%
        -----
        79.7%

The bold letters are announced results and the strikethrough cases fail.

I'm not sure that is the best combination, but I extrapolated that idea by adding more players and get something like 86%.

61
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto 2
« on: January 31, 2020, 03:15:55 am »
We should discuss how we deal with multiple players in a team. How do they discuss which clue to submit for their own team?
  • In the hidden QT without discussing strategy.
  • In a new QT for each round, that becomes public after the clues are revealed.
  • One player from the team is assigned to submit the clue.
  • Other ideas you can come up with.

For the teams, I suggest to split Uncleeurope and bitwise and then mix and match the old teams

Uncleeurope + Watno(1) or scolapasta(2)
Rolled 1d2 : 1, total 1
+ faust(1) or ghostofmars(2)
Rolled 1d2 : 2, total 2

62
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto
« on: January 31, 2020, 03:07:34 am »
I created a topic for the second game http://forum.dominionstrategy.com/index.php?topic=20097.0

63
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Decrypto 2
« on: January 31, 2020, 03:06:25 am »
Decrypto is a game that usually appeals to the same people as Codenames does.

https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/225694/decrypto

Quote
Players compete in two teams in Decrypto, with each trying to correctly interpret the coded messages presented to them by their teammates while cracking the codes they intercept from the opposing team.

In more detail, each team has their own screen, and in this screen they tuck four cards in pockets numbered 1-4, letting everyone on the same team see the words on these cards while hiding the words from the opposing team. In the first round, each team does the following: One team member takes a code card that shows three of the digits 1-4 in some order, e.g., 4-2-1. They then give a coded message that their teammates must use to guess this code. For example, if the team's four words are "pig", "candy", "tent", and "son", then I might say "Sam-striped-pink" and hope that my teammates can correctly map those words to 4-2-1. If they guess correctly, great; if not, we receive a black mark of failure.

Starting in the second round, a member of each team must again give a clue about their words to match a numbered code. If I get 2-4-3, I might now say, "sucker-prince-stake". The other team then attempts to guess our numbered code. If they're correct, they receive a white mark of success; if not, then my team must guess the number correctly or take a black mark of failure. (Guessing correctly does nothing except avoid failure and give the opposing team information about what our hidden words might be.)

The rounds continue until a team collects either its second white mark (winning the game) or its second black mark (losing the game). Games typically last between 4-7 rounds. If neither team has won after eight rounds, then each team must attempt to guess the other team's words; whichever team guesses more words correctly wins.

There is a word list generator we could use here: https://whoawhoa.github.io/decrypto/#

1) Cluegivers generate a code using the same site, make clues and post them to the game thread.
2) Guessers guess their own teams code. Starting round 2, teams simultaneously discuss about the opponent's clue and try to guess their code.
3a) If you guess the clue of your own team, you post it in the team quicktopic.
3b) If you guess the clue of the opposing team, you post it in spoilers in the game thread.
4) Once all guesses are ready, the cluegivers state their partner's guess, reveal the correct codes and tokens are assigned.
5) Start new round with switched cluegivers.

64
General Discussion / Re: Maths thread.
« on: January 30, 2020, 07:24:48 am »
For hat-problem number 2 I don't know the probability, but the strategy that produces better than a 50% chance is:
If you see an even number of hats of each color, guess whichever color you see fewer of. If you see an odd number, don't guess.
This cannot be the best strategy. Consider e.g. the 5 player scenario: You have 2 cases of all same hats, which you get wrong; 10 cases where only a single player has a different hat, which you get right; and of the remaining 20 cases, which have a 3-2 distribution, you get only 50% correct. So overall you get 20/32 = 62.5% correct answers.
This is less than the 3 player solution (guess the opposite color if everyone else has the same hat), which is correct 75% of the time. So player 4 and 5 passing and otherwise using the 3 player strategy is stronger.

65
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto
« on: January 29, 2020, 02:54:12 am »
In round 4 and 6 my clues were rather straight forward, but in the last round I was relatively sure that you got Rule and Greenhouse, but did not know Tiger yet. Hence I chose a word that intentionally overlapped with both Rule and Tiger but being a bit closer to Tiger. I don't know how easy it was for faust to work out the difference, but I am glad it ultimately worked out.

Would anybody be up for another round?

66
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto
« on: January 28, 2020, 01:31:09 pm »
Reading our own QT I realized that we discussed Drawing for 4 and neither of us noticed the connection to Smithy :o

67
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto
« on: January 28, 2020, 03:47:37 am »
I can also state now that to this day I have no idea how the Blueberries clue connects to 1.
In hindsight that was not a good clue, because it uses a bad kind of clue difficulty. Good clue difficulty is hard for the opponents and easy for your own team, this was just equally hard for both teams.

My idea at the time was to give minimal differences between the words as to uncover as least as possible about the hidden code words. So I came up with a property that I could link to all the clues and then added one layer of obfuscation. This obfuscation is bad, because both your own team and the opponents need the same effort to work it out. I tried to hint at the obfuscation with the words chosen, but obviously that failed. Given the three words Oranges - Blueberries - Cucumbers, can you guess which property, I wanted to hint at? It was the colors orange - blue - green.

Now that still doesn't explain the connection with the words, while orange and green should be obvious, I had two reasons to believe blue could be decoded. The stronger one is that the fruit would have been Bananas otherwise. The weaker one is the infamous "Blue Dog" rule explanation in Dominion.

68
General Discussion / Re: Maths thread.
« on: January 28, 2020, 03:30:25 am »

WW WB WB [BB]:
PASS -> pass -> (WB) -> (WB) -> (WW)

BB WB WB [WW]:
PASS -> pass -> (WB) -> (WB) -> (BB)

WB WB WB [WB]:
PASS -> pass -> (WB) -> (WB) -> (WB)


How are these three cases different from the perspective of the first player? In other words, how is that final guess made?

Here is a fixed scheme using the improvements of the 4 player solution to make it 1 turn shorter
WW WB BB [WB]:
WB WB WB [WB]:
BB WB WW [WB]:
PASS -> pass -> pass -> ...
WW WB WB [BB]:
BB WB WB [WW]:
PASS -> pass -> (WB) -> pass if [WW] -> ...
WB WB WW [BB]:
WB WB BB [WW]:
PASS -> pass -> (WB) -> pass -> pass if [WW] -> ...

69
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto
« on: January 28, 2020, 02:38:06 am »
Final result

team Watno + scolapasta
1 Interception tokens
2 Miscommunication tokens
Round 1 Fall - Line - Jam (code: 3-4-1, guess: 3-4-1, interception: N/A)
Round 2 Prize - Ocean - Fire (code: 4-3-1, guess: 4-3-1, interception: 2-3-4)
Round 3 Smithy - Blood - Rock (code: 4-2-3, guess: 1-2-3, interception: 2-3-4)
Round 4 SCALE - MIRROR - CHILD (code: 3-2-4, guess: 3-2-4, interception: 3-1-2)
Round 5 Kill - Small - Climb (code: 1-2-3, guess: 1-2-3, interception: 1-2-3)
Round 6 DaVinci - Vision - Financial (code: 4-2-3, guess: 4-2-3, interception: 1-2-3)
Round 7 Range - Hang - Tie (code: 1-3-4, guess: 1-3-4, interception: 2-3-4)
Round 8 Close - Ski - Arm (code: 2-3-1, guess: 2-1-4, interception: 2-4-1)
Clue for 1 Jam, Fire, Kill, Range, Arm
Clue for 2 Blood, Mirror, Small, Vision, Close
Clue for 3 Fall, Ocean, Rock, Scale, Climb, Financial, Hang, Ski
Clue for 4 Line, Prize, Smithy, Child, DaVinci, Tie

team faust + ghost
1 Interception tokens
1 Miscommunication tokens
Round 1 Grow - India - Thumb (code: 4-2-1, guess: 4-2-1, interception: N/A)
Round 2 Oranges - Blueberries - Cucumbers (code: 2-1-4, guess: 2-3-1, interception: 4-3-1)
Round 3 Tank - Explode - Gas (code: 2-3-4, guess: 2-3-4, interception: 1-4-3)
Round 4 America - Hunt - Court (code: 3-2-1, guess: 3-2-1, interception: 1-3-4)
Round 5 Paris - Game - Pattern (code: 4-1-2, guess: 4-1-2, interception: 1-2-3)
Round 6 Building - Monarch - Water (code: 4-1-3, guess: 4-1-3, interception: 4-1-3)
Round 7 Bend - Paper - Preserve (code: 1-2-3, guess: 1-2-3, interception: 1-3-4)
Round 8 Menagerie - Venus - Largest (code: 2-4-3, guess: 2-4-3, interception: 1-4-3)

Clue for 1 Thumb, Blueberries, Court, Game, Monarch, Bend
Clue for 2 India, Oranges, Tank, Hunt, Pattern, Paper, Menagerie
Clue for 3 Explode, America, Water, Preserve, Largest
Clue for 4 Grow, Cucumbers, Gas, Paris, Building, Venus

Yeah, my misdirection worked :)

Do you want to guess our words or should we just reveal the quicktopic?

70
General Discussion / Re: Maths thread.
« on: January 27, 2020, 10:59:11 am »
Below is the complete list for 4 players. It is actually even one turn faster than before (2n+2 turns), because while you may need 2x passing to distinguish between the crucial 7 cases, you can align them such that they never overlap.

Trivial cases
WW WB BB BB [WW]
WW BB WB BB [WW]
WW BB BB WB [WW]
(WW) ...
BB WB WW WW [BB]
BB WW WB WW [BB]
BB WW WW WB [BB]
(BB) ...

WB WW BB BB [WW]
BB WW WB BB [WW]
BB WW BB WB [WW]
pass -> (WW) ...
WB BB WW WW [BB]
WW BB WW WB [BB]
WW BB WB WW [BB]
pass -> (BB) ...

WW* BB WW BB [WB]
WB* BB WW BB [WW]
BB WW* WW BB [WB]
BB WB* WW BB [WW]
BB BB WW WB [WW]
pass -> pass -> (WW) ... *one passing is required to distinguish cases

WB* WW BB WW [BB]
BB* WW BB WW [WB]
WW WB* BB WW [BB]
WW BB* BB WW [WB]
WW WW BB WB [BB]
pass -> pass -> (BB) ... *one passing is required to distinguish cases

WW BB WB WB [WB]
BB WW WB WB [WB]
pass -> pass -> (WB) ...

WB BB BB WW [WW]
BB WB BB WW [WW]
BB BB WB* WW [WW]
BB BB WW* WW [WB]
pass -> pass -> pass -> (WW) ... *one passing is required to distinguish cases

WB WW WW BB [BB]
WW WB WW BB [BB]
WW WW WB* BB [BB]
WW WW BB* BB [WB]
pass -> pass -> pass -> (BB) ... *one passing is required to distinguish cases

WW WB BB WB [WB]
WB WW BB WB [WB]
WB BB WW WB [WB]
BB WB WW WB [WB]
pass -> pass -> pass -> (WB) ...

Special cases I
WB WW WB BB [WB]
WB BB WB WW [WB]
PASS -> (WB) ...

WB WB WW BB* [WB]
WB WB WW* WB* [BB]
WB WB BB* WB* [WW]
WB WB BB WW* [WB]
PASS -> (WB) ... *up to 2x passing is required to distinguish cases

WB WW* WB WB [BB]
WB BB* WB WB [WW]
PASS -> (WB) -> (pass) ...

Special cases II
WW* WB WB BB [WB]
WB* WB WB BB* [WW]
BB* WB WB WW [WB]
WB* WB WB WW* [BB]
WW* WB WB WB [BB]
WB* WB WB WB [WB]
BB* WB WB WB [WW]
PASS -> pass ... if [WW] player 2 passes, if [BB] player 3 passes

71
General Discussion / Re: Maths thread.
« on: January 27, 2020, 03:38:49 am »
Thinking about it, I'm actually a bit confused about resolving the "trivial case".

Consider the layout is BB, WW, WW, BB, and everyone else BW. After the first two players pass, and the third player guesses, how can the second player deduce the difference between them being BW and the middle hidden cards WW or vice-versa?

This one I understand!
The trivial case is that the first WB player after a WW and BB guesses. So the third player would not make any guesses in your scenario.
In addition, you can say that After two WWs and two BBs have passed, any player can make a guess.

You are right I did not consider a setup like BB, WW, WW, BB. Unfortunately, hhelibebcnofnena's solution will not work in general, because it will modify the special case when this setup happens at the end of the line. I believe the best solution is to have the second WW player still announce that they are WW at this point and have one player pass in the second round to indicate this special setup. I think I need to work through all cases in a 4 player game, because this case did not appear in a 3 player one (If you have two WW with three players, you always have BB as hidden cards and the other BB player will announce in his turn.).

Here is the complete list for 3 players
Notation
[XX] = hidden cards are XX
(XX) = player announce their cards are XX
PASS = pass -> pass -> pass

Trivial cases (hidden cards revealed in first round)
WW BB BB [WW]:
(WW) -> (BB) -> (BB)
BB WW WW [BB]:
(BB) -> (WW) -> (WW)
WW BB WW [BB]:
pass -> (BB) -> (WW) -> (WW)
BB WW BB [WW]:
pass -> (WW) -> (BB) -> (BB)
WW WW BB [BB]:
pass -> pass -> (BB) -> (WW) -> (WW)
BB BB WW [WW]:
pass -> pass -> (WW) -> (BB) -> (BB)
WW BB WB [WB]:
pass -> pass -> (WB) -> (WW) -> (BB)
BB WW WB [WB]:
pass -> pass -> (WB) -> (BB) -> (WW)

special case I (first player knows hidden cards after first round)
WB WW BB [WB]:
PASS -> (WB) -> (WW) -> (BB)
WB BB WW [WB]:
PASS -> (WB) -> (BB) -> (WW)
WB WW WB [BB]:
PASS -> (WB) -> pass -> (WB) -> (WW)
WB BB WB [WW]:
PASS -> (WB) -> pass -> pass -> (BB) -> (WB)

special case II (first player does not know hidden cards after first round, these are always 7, independent of the number of players)
WW WB WB [BB]:
PASS -> pass -> (WB) -> (WB) -> (WW)
WW WB BB [WB]:
PASS -> pass -> pass -> (BB) -> (WW) -> (WB)
BB WB WB [WW]:
PASS -> pass -> (WB) -> (WB) -> (BB)
BB WB WW [WB]:
PASS -> pass -> pass -> (WW) -> (BB) -> (WB)

WB WB WB [WB]:
PASS -> pass -> (WB) -> (WB) -> (WB)
WB WB WW [BB]:
PASS -> pass -> pass -> pass* -> (WB) -> (WB) -> (WW)
WB WB BB [WW]:
PASS -> pass -> pass -> pass* -> pass -> (WB) -> (BB) -> (WB)
*This passing is necessary because for 3 players, the n-th player appears before another WB can give additional information.

72
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto
« on: January 27, 2020, 02:03:10 am »
We guess 2 - 4 - 1 for your code.

73
General Discussion / Re: Maths thread.
« on: January 26, 2020, 08:50:53 am »
For the new hat problem, I believe the correct answer for the first part is 50%, isn't it?

74
General Discussion / Re: Maths thread.
« on: January 26, 2020, 08:48:50 am »
Sorry phone post so no spoiler tags.

The 7 cases, in which the first player does not know their own cards after one round, are
WW (n-2)*WB BB [hidden: WB]
WB (n-2)*WB BB [WW]

BB (n-2)*WB WW [WB]
WB (n-2)*WB WW [BB]

WW (n-1)*WB [BB]
WB (n-1)*WB [WB]
BB (n-1)*WB [WW]
I grouped the cases from the perspective of the first player. Because there is more than one case, the first player passes, then the second one passes or not to hint between the different options. In the last group there are three options so the third player needs to do the final communication.

75
Non-Mafia Game Threads / Re: Decrypto
« on: January 25, 2020, 01:14:10 am »
Menagerie - Venus - Largest

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