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22776

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 05, 2014, 05:53:40 am »

I am not going to go around telling people who to target, but I think a far, far better way to do this, instead of lynching PPS, is to have him be a potential cop target tonight.

1. if he is targeted we learned he is town and that TA is town 100% at the same time.
2. if he is NKed... yes we lose that cop data (from whoever copped him), but we learn that TA is town 100% of the time and we don't lose a cop from a different night as scum targeted PPS and not another cop.
3. if he is scum, he is outed and we can then decide what to do with TA... He is probably still town, but at least we can think about it.

Now that is a decent idea, but at the moment, we are two Cops down. It's easily possible that we don't get another investigation result. And if we don't, and take TA/pps to some LyLo situation because we think they might still get investigated, what then?

If you are so suspicious of PPS's claim that he is a cop... then why are you so sure that we are two cops down? If you think PPS is scum, then we should only be one cop down.

this post to me is raising a giant red flag! It seems to me that cognitively you believe PPS's claim, but that you want to lynch him anyways (because you want that mislynch w/o responsibility because you are just "doing it for information for TA")

I sitll need to look you over, but you might have just jumped to the top of my suspicions with this post despite TA's town read on you.

And again, I am not saying give TA and PPS a pass. But rather lynch them if you think they are scummy. I don't think they are scummy and won't lynch them just for info.

So yes, this was an unfortunate statement...

That said, some of what you say is making sense, and I think that maybe we can do this without lynching pps. I guess I just have too little trust in my reads and like to have a "safe option", especially when the alternative is potentially mislynching a PR.

So I'm open to vote elsewhere, but - none of the other wagons seems good. I don't think the case on Eevee is anywhere near compelling. yuma has risen in townieness over the past-claim time. And me, well, I'm town.

So I'm open to vote AHoppy or Archetype, or maybe Robz (though I'm less sure about him), but there doesn't seem to be enough support for any of those. So while I don't find pps super scummy, I definitely think he's scummier than the rest of my options.

22777

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1

« on: February 04, 2014, 04:14:27 pm »

Definitely don't want random, as that basically acquits everyone for their vote.

No posts at all overnight tells nor everyone seems ok with their vote.

I think this indicates ashersky being town, because I get the feeling from this thread that he's more likely the lynch, so why would he argue against random lynch, which increases his odds of surviving?

22778

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 04, 2014, 04:35:53 am »

OK, caught up past that.  I disagree with faust, and I find his jumping to lynching a claimed doctor right away particularly scummy... While sure, the idea looks good on paper, TA makes a very good point saying that if you doubt one of them, then lynch PPS.  I was just beginning to think PPS was looking townier (see my post above) and therefore have no reason to doubt this claim.  I think we can do better than lynching a claimed cop...

P.S. I'm really sorry TA for dismissing your case yesterday, now that I know you are town.  It was good for a D1 case, but I didn't like the missing information and that you didn't qualify in the case that it was missing.

What's that "we can do better than that" thing supposed to mean? Is it now inherently bad to lynch a claimed Cop (who, mind you, isn't even a Cop anymore, he's just a VT)? This followed by buddying the close-to-IC... I think there's scummy stuff going on here.

22779

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 04, 2014, 04:33:18 am »

As to faust's question, I don't know.  I don't see what makes it more likely that I am scum when I was at L-1 twice.  Perhaps scum didn't want to be the hammer, so they couldn't switch off teproc/not voting (I can't remember who wasn't voting when, but I think there were some not voting).

But why wouldn't scum want to hammer? Not lynching you meant a semi-random lynch at this point, which is dangerous for scum becasue it might end up hitting them, and if it does, there's not enough time to create an alternate wagon.

AHoppy's most recent post is interesting. But a statement like "yeah, you should probably lynch me" just doesn't sit right with me. After all, if he's a PR who still has a shot, why say this? I will keep my vote there for now.

This was not my intention.  I was looking from the collective town's POV: It makes more sense to lynch me that hope to cop me.  The way I see it, we have a pretty good chance of not getting any cop results tomorrow either because our D2 cop is dead, or will be dead in the morning, or because we don't have one at all!  OTOH, killing me enables stronger reads on end of D1 shenanigans, which may be just as successful as one successful cop/doc.  I'm thinking through it logically for the good of the many, and I came to the conclusion that my death could be more helpful than my life.  I'd still rather you didn't kill me, but if it must be done, it must.

The "collective town POV" is really rubbing me the wrong way. If you're town, your POV is fine, no need to put much thought in what the collective would want. It's only as scum that you're trying to figure out what town as a whole might think is good, and for that reason try to take a collective town POV.

22780

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 04, 2014, 04:24:22 am »

Now regarding yuma's cases, I think the one on Archetype is stronger than that on Eevee. For one, I can quite well relate to Eevee's post saying there was something fishy going on between yuma/Robz, as I felt the same way. And I don't think the other points brought up makes Eevee scummy enough to be a good lynch target.

I could vote for Robz/Archetype/AHoppy if it turns out that the majority here is against a pps lynch. AHoppy's most recent posts also had a certain scummy feel on them. Maybe I can grasp what exactly that is.

22781

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 04, 2014, 04:17:05 am »

I am not going to go around telling people who to target, but I think a far, far better way to do this, instead of lynching PPS, is to have him be a potential cop target tonight.

1. if he is targeted we learned he is town and that TA is town 100% at the same time.
2. if he is NKed... yes we lose that cop data (from whoever copped him), but we learn that TA is town 100% of the time and we don't lose a cop from a different night as scum targeted PPS and not another cop.
3. if he is scum, he is outed and we can then decide what to do with TA... He is probably still town, but at least we can think about it.

Now that is a decent idea, but at the moment, we are two Cops down. It's easily possible that we don't get another investigation result. And if we don't, and take TA/pps to some LyLo situation because we think they might still get investigated, what then?

22782

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 04, 2014, 04:14:21 am »

Scott, same question -- do you think PPS is mafia?

We aren't at a point where we can afford a mislynch just to make 1 IC. Once again, 2 dead town is not worth 1 IC.

It completely misses the point to paint this as "trade two dead town for 1 IC". I mean, it's in no way certain that we'll hit scum if we don't lynch pps. And if we don't, we traded two dead townies and one extra power for nothing. And how is it even certain that pps is a mislynch? If we're just going to give TA and pps a free pass, then this could be the most successful scum gambit ever.

Just judging by the reactions it caused, I am more inclined to believe that pps is scum right now.

22783

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1

« on: February 04, 2014, 03:54:57 am »

Voltaire not picking a different target is really the only thing that's stopping me from voting for ashersky. However, after thinking about it a lot more I'm going to vote for ash.

Here's why:

- Scummy behavior: Since he claimed negative utility I've had a scumread on him. His claim seemed totally truthful, but that doesn't make him Town.

What exactly about ashersky's behaviour does make you think he's scum?

Vote: ashersky. I think he's bluffing.

No; If I had a negative utility, I would keep it hidden and not use it. I see no reason why he said that he's a negative utility.

Additionally, his reaction upon being Gladiatored is flailing scum.

I don't agree; and yes, I also see no reason why he said he's negative utility, no reason for scum as well. Do you believe ash's role claim to be true?

- Least Likely to Flip Scum: Power-wise, of course. I find it very unlikely that Yuma would make a Gladiator scum in this small of a game. Based on my power, I also think Voltaire is more likely to be Town.

I wonder how your power would indicate Voltaire's alignment. But if you don't want to reveal that, fine. Just let me ask: Why shouldn't there be a scum Gladiator in this game? For all we know, Voltaire could be lying about the exact nature of his role (i.e. it could not be compulsive).

I consider Gladiator a scum role in a game with more scum. In a 9P game I don't think it'd be included since we're looking at a likely two man scum team. And like faust said, that gives scum at least a 50/50 chance of one of their members dying Day 1. Also, if Volt is scum, I think he'd target someone who isn't a claimed negative utility.

You're missing my point. This line of reasoning only makes sense if Voltaire's role is compulsive. But is it? We don't know that. And why do you think Voltaire wouldn't target negative utility as scum? It makes much more sense for him to target negative utility as sucm than it does as town.

- Inheritence Business: Goes along with the last one. I'm pretty sure Voltaire is Town and wouldn't use the power. Ash getting Gladiator wouldn't really do anything.

That's not a reason to vote ashersky at all.

It's a reason to vote him over Voltaire.

You're saying it doesn't matter who gets which power, so there's no reason why this would make you prefer an ashersky lynch.

If Voltaire or ashersky were to have the Redirector power, I'd rather have it be Voltaire since I have bigger Townread on him.

But that's not the point! If we lynch Voltaire, ashersky will lose his Redirection power!

Your reasoning is seriously flawed, and I suggest you think it over.

22784

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 03, 2014, 01:01:43 pm »

If I get a town result on someone later on who's not getting lynched regardless? No freaking way am I claiming if I know I'm going to get immediately lynched. My claim would be detrimental to town.

But that's not happening. The first IC is the most important because A) they will be IC for the longest time. B) with two IC's, we cannot guarantee their protection.

22785

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 03, 2014, 12:57:52 pm »

Also, implying that other Cops won't claim if we lynch pps is ridiculous.

22786

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 03, 2014, 12:54:10 pm »

Policy voting claimed cops is ridiculous, and an amazing way to get our cops to not claim. ICs aren't worth it if they come at the cost of a mislynch, which is the trade you guys are proposing.

See, and here we disagree. Plus, pps was the only wagon for a long time when he claimed. Doesn't that strike you as an odd timing for the claim?

22787

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 03, 2014, 12:52:07 pm »

Chairs, Faust: Do you think that PPS is scum? Yes/no

I am pretty null, with a slight town tendency on him. Always hard to read for me though.

22788

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 03, 2014, 12:51:17 pm »

Maybe I was a little too eager. It's just, this plan has been stuck in my head since the middle of D1, and I already had lost hope that there would be a chance to try it, so I was quite excited to see the Cop claim.

Did you know that faust wasn't on L-1?

I guess you mean pps? I was fairly certain he wasn't because I usually realize when someone is put at L-1. But honestly, I might very well consciously have hammered him if I had had the chance.

22789

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 03, 2014, 12:44:35 pm »

Maybe I was a little too eager. It's just, this plan has been stuck in my head since the middle of D1, and I already had lost hope that there would be a chance to try it, so I was quite excited to see the Cop claim.

22790

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 03, 2014, 12:42:20 pm »

Because you're voting a freaking claimed cop before anyone has had a chance to react. We have like a week to go, even if you will eventually go there, why does it need to be now

Yes, well fine. It's not like I was stating intent to hammer. What's the problem with him being at L-1? I think everyone in this game knows better than to derphammer.

22791

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 03, 2014, 12:39:57 pm »

Oh shoot, Robz is right. L-1 on PPS, someone please unvote

Why?

22792

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 03, 2014, 12:39:03 pm »

I just looked. It is L-1 I think, but it's been a while since the last vote count.

22793

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 03, 2014, 12:29:08 pm »

Well, I'm going to give credence to TA since he is fervently pushing a case. I was a N1 cop and I investigated TA and he turned up a Town result.
I didn't see much utility in divulging this until he started flailing on this case which I'm not wholly impressed by but I admit he is Town. It's also why I gave him a pass on analyzing the D1 wagons wherein he was off-wagon.

Vote: pingpongsam.

Let me explain. Right now, we don't know if pps is telling the truth. If he is scum, we obviously want to lynch him. But - should he flip town, we know he told the truth, and we have an IC. Plus, scum can't really kill the IC until they are sure there are no doctor around anymore, which is only after N5. So we get to use an IC all that time . Also, scum will now never kill pps, so the only way we can confirm his claim is if we lynch him. That is done sooner rather than later.

If you're town, sorry. But I do think this is the way to go for us.

22794

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1

« on: February 03, 2014, 11:58:54 am »

faust do you actually think Voltaire is scum?  Because earlier you said that you didn't think scum!Voltaire would have mentioned the role-switching thing if he wanted ash's redirector role, and later you said scum would want the redirector role.

I think Voltaire is more likely scum than ashersky, but most likely both are town.

22795

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1

« on: February 03, 2014, 11:32:44 am »

Voltaire, can you elaborate on your scumread on Ashersky now?

Woooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo! I didn't even realize this had happened.

Remember how ash furiously went 100% insane that faust was scum over faust's "ash is the best mislynch" comment, and ash turned out to be town? Well, someone did this in that game and ash went "Hmm, ok, I disagree"

Do you remember how I was town that game? Maybe this caused ash to reconsider his convictions. Also, where did this happen?

22796

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1

« on: February 03, 2014, 11:16:38 am »

Fine, I'll reveal the reason why I think ashersky is town.

I am Tony Wonder, Magic Bodyguarder.

Each night, I can act as a Bodyguard, saving a player from a night kill. Or I can force someone to bodyguard me. That way, if I would die that night, they die instead.

Now what does this have to do with ashersky, you ask? Easy:

ashersky can redirect everything but kills to him and from him. I, on the other hand, can redirect kills to me or from me. So ashersky's role mirrors my role in a neat way, and thus I think he is also town.

22797

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 03, 2014, 11:05:36 am »

Faust, what post # is that quote from?

Wouldn't scum mind getting lynched more than town would? I mean, scum wants to avoid getting lynched at all costs, while it's not the absolute worst thing for town if their mislynch helps to catch scum later..

I am not saying this clears Ahoppy at all, but I just don't see how this points to him being scum.

This is the post I'm referring to:

@ #1014I'm actually in agreement with you faust, even if it means my death.  In this game specifically, we have no idea if we even have a cop tonight.  Or if we had one last night.  One of our cops died, and if we only have what, 4-6? so that means we have 3-5 left with no guarantee that the investigations will happen tonight.  I'm not up to running the numbers on it, but I do like a definite way (lynch) to find out an alignment as opposed to a gamble (which, you then have to rely also on the cop's judgement of who to investigate...)

Looking for this also made me realize it's been almost 4 days since AHoppy's last post. Can we get a prod on AHoppy?

And I think neither scum nor town would want to get lynched in this game, but scum is more likely to say it trying to appear townie and selfless.

22798

Mafia Game Threads / Re: MXXXVII - Diffusion of Power (D2)

« on: February 03, 2014, 11:00:18 am »

TA, I think you are confusing yourself at this point. I honestly don't see the big point you are making, different day 1's play differently and it makes the reads you get unique every single time (also your own level of participation and general mood on any given day matters a lot). I think people aren't commenting your case because they don't there is any scum to be found with that method. I know I'm not scum anyways.

I have to agree with Eevee here, except for the part where he knows he's not scum.

22799

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1

« on: February 03, 2014, 10:57:13 am »

I go with Vote: Ashersky.
For basicly the same reason as EFHW.
I think Voltaire is town. I am leaning town on Ashersky as well, but I am more confident in the Voltaire read.

What makes you believe that Voltaire is town? Are you still considering switching your vote?

22800

Mafia Game Threads / Re: Arrested Development Mafia (RMM14) - Day1

« on: February 03, 2014, 10:54:58 am »

So, to players voting for ashersky, I'm hoping you could answer me some questions.

Voltaire not picking a different target is really the only thing that's stopping me from voting for ashersky. However, after thinking about it a lot more I'm going to vote for ash.

Here's why:

- Scummy behavior: Since he claimed negative utility I've had a scumread on him. His claim seemed totally truthful, but that doesn't make him Town.

What exactly about ashersky's behaviour does make you think he's scum?

- Least Likely to Flip Scum: Power-wise, of course. I find it very unlikely that Yuma would make a Gladiator scum in this small of a game. Based on my power, I also think Voltaire is more likely to be Town.

I wonder how your power would indicate Voltaire's alignment. But if you don't want to reveal that, fine. Just let me ask: Why shouldn't there be a scum Gladiator in this game? For all we know, Voltaire could be lying about the exact nature of his role (i.e. it could not be compulsive).

- Inheritence Business: Goes along with the last one. I'm pretty sure Voltaire is Town and wouldn't use the power. Ash getting Gladiator wouldn't really do anything.

That's not a reason to vote ashersky at all. You're saying it doesn't matter who gets which power, so there's no reason why this would make you prefer an ashersky lynch. And again, what makes you so sure that Voltaire is town?