Vote Count 2.4
Isis (1): MiX
chairs (5): Swowl, SpaceAnemone, Galzria, faust, scolapasta {X-1}
Galzria (3): Robz888, Dylan32, EFHW
MiX (1): Isis
EFHW (1): chairs
Not Voting (0):
With 11 alive it takes 6 to exile.
Day 2 lasts until 12:30AM FT on Saturday, August 8th, 2020 - that's in ~ 12 hours.
Have we ever established that math/probability based arguments are more likely to come from scum? I genuinely can't recall.I don't know, it seems like establishing that would require some kind of probability based argument and I'm afraid to use them now.
I personally think the law of averages favors the D1 wagons being all TownI have no idea what this means.
If you pick three random people from the game, the likelihood of picking one scum is fairly low on D1. We have 13 this game? So it's 3/13 plus 3/12 plus 3/11 chance that at least one is scum... wait I'm wrong, I just did the math and it's like 75 percent chance we did find one scum in a triple pile. We know Joth was Town, and I know I am Town, and the monte hall problem means MiX has a 75 percent chance or so of being scum then.
Vote: mix
Me and my top 2 (well, not top 2, but 2 out of my top 3) scumreads have better odds of having scum than not. Although taking away Isis from this does plummet the chances from around 80% to something above 50%.
Also, lol, that math is gloriously wrong. Everyone would have a 75% chance of being scum that way. You need to know how many scum are in a set to apply Monty Hall, and clearly if you're town it would give a 100% chance of me being scum.
What's important here is that chairs moved his vote over this """logic""" and that's just making me scratch my head intensively. Is that even scummy?
I don't know how you think Monty Hall enters into this problem, but it doesn't.I personally think the law of averages favors the D1 wagons being all TownI have no idea what this means.
If you pick three random people from the game, the likelihood of picking one scum is fairly low on D1. We have 13 this game? So it's 3/13 plus 3/12 plus 3/11 chance that at least one is scum... wait I'm wrong, I just did the math and it's like 75 percent chance we did find one scum in a triple pile. We know Joth was Town, and I know I am Town, and the monte hall problem means MiX has a 75 percent chance or so of being scum then.
Vote: mix
