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Messages - chairs

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51
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D3)
« on: August 10, 2020, 12:26:54 pm »
I hate JOATs but I love vigging, mostly because somehow I have what is I think the best record for vig shots on the forum.

I'm kind of at a loss on the last scum though, I didn't think too hard about it last night because I was expecting to die.

52
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 07, 2020, 07:22:16 pm »
I'll be on in time to help hammer but I've got to step away before I cross a line

53
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 07, 2020, 07:21:34 pm »
Like I literally just acknowledged I am almost certainly the night kill and you're trying to scumslip out of that?

I'll refrain from the character attack that came to mind but are you serious?

54
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 07, 2020, 07:19:47 pm »
The "I'm getting NK'd" scum slip maybe?

55
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 07, 2020, 05:20:59 pm »
I'm not voting mix today. If I survive tonight maybe, but given we lost groot probably also not happening

56
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 07, 2020, 04:34:01 pm »
Oh scolapasya unvoted

57
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 07, 2020, 04:33:35 pm »
Nvm this is including the extra day.

Hell.


58
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (Night 0)
« on: August 07, 2020, 04:32:43 pm »
Vote Count 2.4

Isis (1): MiX
chairs (5): Swowl, SpaceAnemone, Galzria, faust, scolapasta {X-1}
Galzria (3): Robz888, Dylan32, EFHW
MiX (1): Isis
EFHW (1): chairs
 
Not Voting (0):

With 11 alive it takes 6 to exile.

Day 2 lasts until 12:30AM FT on Saturday, August 8th, 2020 - that's in ~ 12 hours.


Isis has since voted mix, Galz has voted robz, mix and chairs have voted swowl.

I thought we had an extra day since Faust had subbed in but I guess we lost it?

59
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 07, 2020, 04:27:37 pm »
Vote: swowl

Sure I'm down with that.

60
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 07, 2020, 04:26:35 pm »
I was really trying to walk that line of "too scummy to get NK'd" and "not scummy enough to get exiled". Sorry I missed the mark.

61
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 07, 2020, 11:43:54 am »
Ugh.

I'm iron man.

Isis investigates as Town.

62
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 06, 2020, 12:10:27 pm »
Vote: efhw

63
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 06, 2020, 10:48:49 am »
Have we ever established that math/probability based arguments are more likely to come from scum? I genuinely can't recall.
I don't know, it seems like establishing that would require some kind of probability based argument and I'm afraid to use them now.

 :D ;D

64
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 06, 2020, 08:32:34 am »
I don't know, Galz I think?

He's since shown up a bit though.

65
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 06, 2020, 08:30:22 am »
Yeah confirmed I'm a dumb and Monty hall definitely doesn't apply

Unvote

66
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 06, 2020, 08:28:20 am »
I personally think the law of averages favors the D1 wagons being all Town
I have no idea what this means.

If you pick three random people from the game, the likelihood of picking one scum is fairly low on D1. We have 13 this game? So it's 3/13 plus 3/12 plus 3/11 chance that at least one is scum... wait I'm wrong, I just did the math and it's like 75 percent chance we did find one scum in a triple pile. We know Joth was Town, and I know I am Town, and the monte hall problem means MiX has a 75 percent chance or so of being scum then.

Vote: mix

Me and my top 2 (well, not top 2, but 2 out of my top 3) scumreads have better odds of having scum than not. Although taking away Isis from this does plummet the chances from around 80% to something above 50%.

Also, lol, that math is gloriously wrong. Everyone would have a 75% chance of being scum that way. You need to know how many scum are in a set to apply Monty Hall, and clearly if you're town it would give a 100% chance of me being scum.

What's important here is that chairs moved his vote over this """logic""" and that's just making me scratch my head intensively. Is that even scummy?

"You need to know how many scum are in a set to apply Monty hall" is probably the bit here that I'm missing - I thought I could basically say "there's x chance of scum in this set" and then apply that chance as flips happened but if we have to KNOW the prize is behind one of the doors it's different

67
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 06, 2020, 08:26:27 am »
If I take a bag with 13 marbles and 3 are red, what are the odds of me pulling at least one red marble out if I grab 3 at the same time is what I'm claiming. If the odds are 58 percent and then I get to look at one of the marbles that I pulled out (which my selection is now stuck in time - I can't swap marbles and all three have been pulled already) and it's not red how does that impact my further chances

68
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 06, 2020, 08:06:34 am »
I suppose you might be right about Monty hall - pulling up khan on it later.

69
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 06, 2020, 08:05:54 am »
FWIW I think the correct math is to figure out the chance or picking 3 Town which is 10/13 times 9/12 times 8/11. Wolfram alpha says that is roughly 42 percent, this 58 percent of the time we picked at least one scum. We initially assign the scum chance equally to all three wagons (well, I obviously would split it between joth and mix but I'm looking at it from an outside observation for a moment here) and then joth flips town. This doesn't make us less likely to have picked at least one scum wagon - it just transfers the probability to mix and myself (hence Monty hall). Now that means each of mix and myself are combined a 58 percent scum chance for at least one of us to be scum, and since I know I'm Town that throws my personal view as mix has better than even odds to flip scum.

For what it's worth, the current odds that any given person is scum for a Town person is 30 percent (3 in 10) and if you assume mix and I are in fact both town then for a non us town member the remaining people have a whopping 3 in 8 chance. The big problem is that wagons aren't actually random draws so there's only so much we can do with probability here

70
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 06, 2020, 07:44:22 am »
I personally think the law of averages favors the D1 wagons being all Town
I have no idea what this means.

If you pick three random people from the game, the likelihood of picking one scum is fairly low on D1. We have 13 this game? So it's 3/13 plus 3/12 plus 3/11 chance that at least one is scum... wait I'm wrong, I just did the math and it's like 75 percent chance we did find one scum in a triple pile. We know Joth was Town, and I know I am Town, and the monte hall problem means MiX has a 75 percent chance or so of being scum then.

Vote: mix
I don't know how you think Monty Hall enters into this problem, but it doesn't.

So I think my math is wrong but that we have something like a 60 percent chance for a "hit" on scum over three "pulls". Since pull one (joth) is now confirmed Town, that should spread that chance over the two of mix and me, and since -I- know I'm Town that would take my probability of being scum and transfer to mix. I don't see how that isn't relevant to this situation but I am at least providing my thoughts even if I'm doing something wrong - better to let someone correct me than to keep the ideas to myself.

71
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 06, 2020, 07:39:58 am »
My math is crazy wrong but I don't know the right formula, googling now

72
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 06, 2020, 07:34:41 am »
I personally think the law of averages favors the D1 wagons being all Town
I have no idea what this means.

If you pick three random people from the game, the likelihood of picking one scum is fairly low on D1. We have 13 this game? So it's 3/13 plus 3/12 plus 3/11 chance that at least one is scum... wait I'm wrong, I just did the math and it's like 75 percent chance we did find one scum in a triple pile. We know Joth was Town, and I know I am Town, and the monte hall problem means MiX has a 75 percent chance or so of being scum then.

Vote: mix

73
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 06, 2020, 12:25:25 am »
You... box your chairs? I just tuck them under the table when I'm not sitting in them.

I personally think the law of averages favors the D1 wagons being all Town (but I'm also coming at it knowing that 2/3 are definitely Town and this I only have to decide if MiX is more likely Town or Mafia).

I feel like looping back to this line of thought is pretty scummy though.

74
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 05, 2020, 09:09:15 pm »
But I'm not on the table. I'm under it, neatly put away.

75
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M129: Marvel Mafia 2 (D2)
« on: August 05, 2020, 03:17:50 pm »
Wait now I think I understand but I disagree with the premise.

I have never been unwilling to exile mix.

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