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Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: July 03, 2013, 10:04:18 am »Chairs & TA, you asked for this and NEVER commented on it. Why is this not convincing enough for you?I'm kind of in the same boat as theorel - none of the wagons presented are particularly appealing. However, I'm willing to take a bad lynch over no lynch, I suppose. I'd like to see some (polite, calm) arguments for/against eevee and efhw cases to see if I can be swayed to either, but I'm leaning towards the relatively-quiet Ahoppy at the moment.I think most of the case on Ahoppy is he's a lurker and not scum hunting, correct? That's how he played in Mean Girls. The stuff he did previously when I voted was certainly fishy, but it's true that he jumped on Eevee, and not EFHW, when EFHW had the most votes.
It's not just that he's being quiet and backgroundy. I think that is a large strike against him. But also, when you review his posts, he spent the early part of today talking about theory while there was plenty of scumhunting going on to talk about. After many posts about items/no-lynch, AHoppy posts this:QuoteI think TA has hit it on the nose. I think today we should work on more scum hunting and less on the items. I like the items, I think it's cool, but I also think they could serve as a distraction from the big goal:kill scum. And I think scum could use that to their advantagesaying we should focus more on scumhunting.
His next 3 posts are all about items and theory, and the third finishes with thisQuoteHowever, I should remind people that we do need to get to scum hunting.
His next post (#284) is really the first that he tries to do anything in the way of scumhunting. And all he does is call out lurkers; also misremembering who was fightign with Twisted at that point (it was me, but he said raerae). He really isn't focused on any arguments, or any scumhunting at this point. Finally he starts coming in with some reads about people starting from #554, but since then he's only had 15 posts.
The second point against AHoppy, is that in addition to being relatively absent, he continually pops up when his name is mentioned. raerae had a post about this earlier. In addition, Ahoppy comes back after a large break apologizing for being absent, and it comes within half-hour of me voting for him, and also Eevee noting that nobody has noticed AHoppy in ages. His last post before then was more than 2 days ago. Vacations are vacations, I understand. But as newer scum confused in a game with some pretty loud voices, there is a lot of incentive to stretch those absences until he gets nervous by many people mentioning his name.
Here is raerae's post to this effect.shraeye, AHoppy was a pretty frequent poster at the start of the game but then went MIA when talk started to turn away from theory. EFHW noted that with this post and AHoppy's response was the very next post. (NOTE: Most posts have been trimmed for spacing.)No idea: X, -- and I have to look up to see who else is playing -- chairs, Ahoppy, nkirbit. Would love to hear from you guys!Sorry, I've been a little busy. I'm planning on rereading and posting my thoughts tonight.
Then nothing for a bit but this...Alright, I'm about to start my re-read, I'll post thoughts when I finish
EFHW is again the one to notice the under-contributing AHoppy.Chairs is v/la, Ahoppy hasn't been back. We haven't heard from raerae or shraeye or theorel much today. So nothing new to say there.
And BOOM! three posts later the man himself shows up with something that almost resembles reads but really doesn't give opinions on folks.
Again promises read when theorel points out his previous reread post didn't actually contain reads.I'll get my re-reads when I'm not on mobile. But theorel, I find it strange that you put out your scum reads, and then vote for your number 2. Why not your number 1?
Finally posts a real read re: SB & TA and fell on the side of seeing SB as scummy.
I agree that this looks pretty suspicious, though Ahoppy clears it up in this quote:
Alright, sorry for my absence again, but real life trumps mafia, sorry. Anyways, thoughts while I was away:
Fair point, that chairs really hasn't done anything ultra towny besides his claim. I still see it as town, but I understand that you may not. Heck, he and xerion could have planned this together from the beginning to set up some crazy D1 fake claim. Far fetched? yeah, but still, gotta think of all the options. Another question though: If you're willing to lynch chairs, then you're also willing to let xerion not go through with his plan. so are you then willing to lynch xerion?
Also, I see a lot of people clamoring for the cases on eevee, so here's a link to mineI'll be the first to admit it isn't a very strong case, and is based on scumteams which I think are tough to call D1, but I still don't like his seeming to communicate with ash.
Looking over the spiritbears wagon stuff (from post 1252):
-Eevee thinks this has all the makings of a mislynch. This early, I'm not sure I would have called this the makings of a mislynch. With only 2 people ever voting for spiritbears, he was never really in danger of getting lynched. Building a case on him =/= to building a mislynch. Town builds cases all the time, and pushes for reactions. TA was just pushing for an answer that never seemed to come.
-Ash thinks SB looks towny
-Eevee flips and says he's not against a spirit lynch (even though he looked like a mislynch earlier) and is now reading him null
-the very next post, ash also flips and says he's neutral on SB. I still don't like the buddying between you too. I understand some of this may be reading into you two from mean girls too much, but I really don't want to get burned again and I'm seeing some parallels.
xerion comes in saying that the best way to end the day quickly is to still follow him? even though he is the only one currently willing to no lynch? I was one of the few people willing to no lynch earlier and now I don't think that is the best idea who do you think is going to follow you x? do you really think you can get 6 more people, especially considering many say they never want to no lynch?One problem about lynching EFHW is that when she was scum in RMM7, no one (especially not me) had any clue. So, being suspected a lot doesn't really fit what we know of her previous scum play.I haven't read RMM7 so I can't comment on that, but I really don't understand this... if she's suspected as scum, she probably isn't scum? So any time we suspect that she is scum we should not lynch her, and any time we think she isn't scum we should? I'm sorry eevee, that makes no sense to me.
So those are the significant things I gathered from today (Real time). I still don't like xerion very much, and if more than me, theorel and nkirbit could get behind a xerion lynch, I probably would. But for now, the most compelling case to me is still eevee. Although, mail-mi hasn't been very active in a while and I don't really remember much of shraeye's play, so I should go back and re-read them when I have time. But for now I don't have the time and we need a lynch
Regarding my lurking and theory talk:
During the day I am at work, where I can check the thread on my phone. So I usually keep up and then post something if I really have something to say about it (which isn't often, and just so happens to usually involve myself). I do this because there are a number of times where I have an idea and tell myself I'll post it later, and then either I forget it, or someone else says it and I would end up just sheeping their point rather than being able to make it myself... Also, I keep posts relatively brief while at work (I am supposed to be working you know) and so it is easier to discuss theory. I also have a hard time working with quotes and re-reading on my phone, so scum-hunting is much harder. Not a very compelling excuse, but there it is.
PPE: I agree with you TA, I can't comprehend how xerion can be so sure of everyone this early. I wasn't that sure on the last day of mean girls... doesn't sit well with me either.
I think that Ahoppy's on something here - Eevee has repeatedly seemed to try to poke without poking and see what sticks. I would be slightly surprised to find ashersky was scum, unless we find Eevee is. I've also read much the same way as TA has here:
Shraeye, two reasons why I'm hesitant and why I prefer Eevee:
1) I have a town read on Nkirbit, and Nkirbit has reason to believe Ahoppy is town based off his leaked info.
2) I just think this might be how Ahoppy plays, and that he's not all that used to scumhunting, and goes off of stuff other people generate. That's just a different way of playing, and not necessarily scummy.
The idea of lynching lurkers is that they're scared and they stay back and are afraid to post normally, right? Well, if the person posts the same amount and hunts the same amount as they did when they were town, this argument loses traction.
Don't get me wrong, he's definitely not the worst lynch, and I'm slight scum on him (although less so after nkirbit's info), but I think Eevee is more likely to flip scum.
I'd still lynch Ahoppy over EFHW, though.
I don't know if I'd lynch Ahoppy over EFHW, but I'd definitely lynch Eevee over both of them at this point. That's why (yesterday, when I thought the deadline would pass before I could have another posting opportunity) I voted in favor of Eevee. I had inteded to reread, but I ended up passing out when I got home and don't have time right now because of work.
One last quote that hit me:
My reads:
Town:
Xeiron, Chairs, Ashersky, Nkirbit, Ahoppy, eevee, raerae, Theorel.
These townreads makes up the backbones of my reads. They are all based on things that have been said and done, And all of them have very little to no chance of flipping scum.
I am a little conserened that with so many townreads already, scum might have slipped in here somehow. For now I will treat all of these as town and concentrate on the rest:
Scum: TwistedArcher, mail-mi, Shraeye, EFHW
The remaining players. I have thought about possible scumteams and I think
{TwistedArcher, Shraeye, mail-mi} fits the best when reading the game.
As much as I appreciate you thinking I'm town, you are ridiculously overconfident in your overall position, I think. I'm glad that you were able to recognize this yourself, but let's see if we can pick apart some of your townreads (if I can find time to post from work).
That being said, I'm concerned I may again be in a position where I can't necessarily weigh in before the (now existing) soft deadline, so I'll reiterate my opinion: I don't think we have any absolutely amazing choices here, but my strongest instinct says Eevee.
vote: Eevee