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4201
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: July 03, 2013, 10:04:18 am »
Chairs & TA, you asked for this and NEVER commented on it.  Why is this not convincing enough for you? 

I'm kind of in the same boat as theorel - none of the wagons presented are particularly appealing.  However, I'm willing to take a bad lynch over no lynch, I suppose.  I'd like to see some (polite, calm) arguments for/against eevee and efhw cases to see if I can be swayed to either, but I'm leaning towards the relatively-quiet Ahoppy at the moment.
I think most of the case on Ahoppy is he's a lurker and not scum hunting, correct? That's how he played in Mean Girls. The stuff he did previously when I voted was certainly fishy, but it's true that he jumped on Eevee, and not EFHW, when EFHW had the most votes.

It's not just that he's being quiet and backgroundy.  I think that is a large strike against him.  But also, when you review his posts, he spent the early part of today talking about theory while there was plenty of scumhunting going on to talk about.  After many posts about items/no-lynch, AHoppy posts this:

Quote
I think TA has hit it on the nose. I think today we should work on more scum hunting and less on the items. I like the items, I think it's cool, but I also think they could serve as a distraction from the big goal:kill scum. And I think scum could use that to their advantage
saying we should focus more on scumhunting. 

His next 3 posts are all about items and theory, and the third finishes with this
Quote
However, I should remind people that we do need to get to scum hunting.

His next post (#284) is really the first that he tries to do anything in the way of scumhunting.  And all he does is call out lurkers; also misremembering who was fightign with Twisted at that point (it was me, but he said raerae).  He really isn't focused on any arguments, or any scumhunting at this point.  Finally he starts coming in with some reads about people starting from #554, but since then he's only had 15 posts.

The second point against AHoppy, is that in addition to being relatively absent, he continually pops up when his name is mentioned. raerae had a post about this earlier.  In addition, Ahoppy comes back after a large break apologizing for being absent, and it comes within half-hour of me voting for him, and also Eevee noting that nobody has noticed AHoppy in ages.  His last post before then was more than 2 days ago.  Vacations are vacations, I understand.  But as newer scum confused in a game with some pretty loud voices, there is a lot of incentive to stretch those absences until he gets nervous by many people mentioning his name.

Here is raerae's post to this effect.
shraeye, AHoppy was a pretty frequent poster at the start of the game but then went MIA when talk started to turn away from theory.  EFHW noted that with this post and AHoppy's response was the very next post.  (NOTE: Most posts have been trimmed for spacing.)

No idea: X, -- and I have to look up to see who else is playing -- chairs, Ahoppy, nkirbit.  Would love to hear from you guys!

Sorry, I've been a little busy. I'm planning on rereading and posting my thoughts tonight.

Then nothing for a bit but this...

Alright, I'm about to start my re-read, I'll post thoughts when I finish

EFHW is again the one to notice the under-contributing AHoppy.

Chairs is v/la, Ahoppy hasn't been back.  We haven't heard from raerae or shraeye or theorel much today.  So nothing new to say there.

And BOOM! three posts later the man himself shows up with something that almost resembles reads but really doesn't give opinions on folks.


Again promises read when theorel points out his previous reread post didn't actually contain reads.

I'll get my re-reads when I'm not on mobile. But theorel, I find it strange that you put out your scum reads, and then vote for your number 2. Why not your number 1?

Finally posts a real read re: SB & TA and fell on the side of seeing SB as scummy.

I agree that this looks pretty suspicious, though Ahoppy clears it up in this quote:

Alright, sorry for my absence again, but real life trumps mafia, sorry.  Anyways, thoughts while I was away:

Fair point, that chairs really hasn't done anything ultra towny besides his claim.  I still see it as town, but I understand that you may not.  Heck, he and xerion could have planned this together from the beginning to set up some crazy D1 fake claim.  Far fetched? yeah, but still, gotta think of all the options.  Another question though: If you're willing to lynch chairs, then you're also willing to let xerion not go through with his plan.  so are you then willing to lynch xerion?

Also, I see a lot of people clamoring for the cases on eevee, so here's a link to mine

I'll be the first to admit it isn't a very strong case, and is based on scumteams which I think are tough to call D1, but I still don't like his seeming to communicate with ash.

Looking over the spiritbears wagon stuff (from post 1252):
-Eevee thinks this has all the makings of a mislynch.  This early, I'm not sure I would have called this the makings of a mislynch.  With only 2 people ever voting for spiritbears, he was never really in danger of getting lynched.  Building a case on him =/= to building a mislynch.  Town builds cases all the time, and pushes for reactions.  TA was just pushing for an answer that never seemed to come. 
-Ash thinks SB looks towny
-Eevee flips and says he's not against a spirit lynch (even though he looked like a mislynch earlier) and is now reading him null
-the very next post, ash also flips and says he's neutral on SB.  I still don't like the buddying between you too.  I understand some of this may be reading into you two from mean girls too much, but I really don't want to get burned again and I'm seeing some parallels.

xerion comes in saying that the best way to end the day quickly is to still follow him?  even though he is the only one currently willing to no lynch?  I was one of the few people willing to no lynch earlier and now I don't think that is the best idea who do you think is going to follow you x?  do you really think you can get 6 more people, especially considering many say they never want to no lynch?

One problem about lynching EFHW is that when she was scum in RMM7, no one (especially not me) had any clue. So, being suspected a lot doesn't really fit what we know of her previous scum play.
I haven't read RMM7 so I can't comment on that, but I really don't understand this... if she's suspected as scum, she probably isn't scum?  So any time we suspect that she is scum we should not lynch her, and any time we think she isn't scum we should?  I'm sorry eevee, that makes no sense to me. 

So those are the significant things I gathered from today (Real time).  I still don't like xerion very much, and if more than me, theorel and nkirbit could get behind a xerion lynch, I probably would.  But for now, the most compelling case to me is still eevee.  Although, mail-mi hasn't been very active in a while and I don't really remember much of shraeye's play, so I should go back and re-read them when I have time.  But for now I don't have the time and we need a lynch

Regarding my lurking and theory talk:
During the day I am at work, where I can check the thread on my phone.  So I usually keep up and then post something if I really have something to say about it (which isn't often, and just so happens to usually involve myself).  I do this because there are a number of times where I have an idea and tell myself I'll post it later, and then either I forget it, or someone else says it and I would end up just sheeping their point rather than being able to make it myself... Also, I keep posts relatively brief while at work (I am supposed to be working you know) and so it is easier to discuss theory.  I also have a hard time working with quotes and re-reading on my phone, so scum-hunting is much harder.  Not a very compelling excuse, but there it is. 

PPE: I agree with you TA, I can't comprehend how xerion can be so sure of everyone this early.  I wasn't that sure on the last day of mean girls... doesn't sit well with me either.

I think that Ahoppy's on something here - Eevee has repeatedly seemed to try to poke without poking and see what sticks.  I would be slightly surprised to find ashersky was scum, unless we find Eevee is.  I've also read much the same way as TA has here:

Shraeye, two reasons why I'm hesitant and why I prefer Eevee:

1) I have a town read on Nkirbit, and Nkirbit has reason to believe Ahoppy is town based off his leaked info.

2) I just think this might be how Ahoppy plays, and that he's not all that used to scumhunting, and goes off of stuff other people generate. That's just a different way of playing, and not necessarily scummy.

The idea of lynching lurkers is that they're scared and they stay back and are afraid to post normally, right? Well, if the person posts the same amount and hunts the same amount as they did when they were town, this argument loses traction.

Don't get me wrong, he's definitely not the worst lynch, and I'm slight scum on him (although less so after nkirbit's info), but I think Eevee is more likely to flip scum.

I'd still lynch Ahoppy over EFHW, though.

I don't know if I'd lynch Ahoppy over EFHW, but I'd definitely lynch Eevee over both of them at this point.  That's why (yesterday, when I thought the deadline would pass before I could have another posting opportunity) I voted in favor of Eevee.  I had inteded to reread, but I ended up passing out when I got home and don't have time right now because of work.

One last quote that hit me:

My reads:

Town:
Xeiron, Chairs, Ashersky, Nkirbit, Ahoppy, eevee, raerae, Theorel.

These townreads makes up the backbones of my reads. They are all based on things that have been said and done, And all of them have very little to no chance of flipping scum.
I am a little conserened that with so many townreads already, scum might have slipped in here somehow. For now I will treat all of these as town and concentrate on the rest:

Scum: TwistedArcher, mail-mi, Shraeye,  EFHW

The remaining players. I have thought about possible scumteams and I think
{TwistedArcher, Shraeye, mail-mi} fits the best when reading the game.

As much as I appreciate you thinking I'm town, you are ridiculously overconfident in your overall position, I think.  I'm glad that you were able to recognize this yourself, but let's see if we can pick apart some of your townreads (if I can find time to post from work).


That being said, I'm concerned I may again be in a position where I can't necessarily weigh in before the (now existing) soft deadline, so I'll reiterate my opinion:  I don't think we have any absolutely amazing choices here, but my strongest instinct says Eevee.

vote: Eevee

4202
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: July 02, 2013, 08:04:53 pm »
Chairs, you should really get your vote down.

It's honestly been pretty hard for me to decide, but deadlines wait for no man, and I suppose I should pick one of the three viable lynches, so...

Vote: Eevee

What deadline?  Nobody has set one yet.  Why is Eevee the best choice?

I thought we'd set (and missed) one soft deadline already?  I'll happily admit to being wrong, if that's the case.  As far as why Eevee is the best choice, I'll attempt to address that in roughly an hour, when I get home.

This is a convenience lynch.  Half the people on this wagon are voting because they "don't like" the other options, not because they think Eevee is scum.  We still have plenty of time.  If you don't like the options then present a new one.

If we still have plenty of time, then nobody minds if I unvote until I can get home and make (or break) my case in more detail, right?  I could've sworn we were butting up against time and that's why we were all choosing horrible lynch options (since no good option existed and we were out of time).

4203
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: July 02, 2013, 07:42:59 pm »
Chairs, you should really get your vote down.

It's honestly been pretty hard for me to decide, but deadlines wait for no man, and I suppose I should pick one of the three viable lynches, so...

Vote: Eevee

4204
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: July 02, 2013, 06:48:41 pm »
Argh, generalizations are bad matey!

Yeah, that's what I always say when I hear them too.

 ;D Exactly, dahling.

I'm intrigued at where we're at.  I think I'm ready to cast my vote, but just in case...

Official vote count, please.

4205
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« on: July 02, 2013, 06:42:07 pm »
liopoil - I understand the concept of policy votes, but exceptions to rules ought to be made, and SB's behaviour certainly seemed to warrant the exception, particularly as he's almost certainly town. (Obviously this is now eevee so we'll have some fun confirming that with the new reads).

eevee/spiritbears - I'm convinced (based on SB's play) that Eevee is town.  SB was so on tilt at the end that I don't see any chance that it was scum play.
so you disagree with my vote. why does this make me scummy? And you are dangerously sure of yourself on eevee/SB. scum can do crazy things...

I disagree with your vote and it feels like you're using a weak justification for it (albeit one that seems to line up with overall forum meta).  It's the combination.  TBH, would I lynch you today if I had to pick somebody? No.  It's not a strong enough scum-read for that in my head.  Does it feel a little scummy? Yes.

Robz888 - If he's not scum I might have to eat my hat.  Mostly my gut, I guess (although I've pointed out a few things that irk me in earlier posts).

There are no hats left on the Forum Games board; people who said that exact think have gobbled them all down after being proved wrong.

I'm being cute, but seriously. I, and lots of other people, have made "this is such a for-sure thing" bets all the time and been wrong, all the all the time. Someone back me up here.

It's okay, I brought my own :D  I'm honestly enjoying myself, so even if I'm wrong - hey, that just means I'm learning how you guys play, and maybe I can read you better next time, as well as learning a bit about how to not be forum dumb.  In the meantime, I'll find some steak sauce just in case.

4206
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: July 02, 2013, 04:24:34 pm »
Ugh, I do agree with shraeye that we should vote a lurker, and would rather lynch Ahoppy than either Eevee or EFHW, but I have one major reservation about this lynch that makes me uncomfortable.  It has to do with the leaked info from his one post... it was info that town would more likely have than scum.  I know this is really vague, and I can elaborate, but don't think I should at this point.

I have a town read on Eevee, so won't be voting there.

EFHW I'm still null on.  I not as convinced as Ash that it was a scum slip, but it could be.  And that's really all I have on EFHW.  And she's not a lurker.

I really am torn between the two of them.  I know I said I would choose Ahoppy earlier, but I have a serious reservation, and I don't have one about EFHW.  On the surface, I agree that Ahoppy has been lurking more and has not been scumhunting much.  Basically, I have reasons to lynch ahoppy and a decent reason to not lynch ahoppy, but not much on EFHW at all, so I'm unsure of what to do.

I think the tie-breaker is going to have to be that I have the same feeling here that I had about EFHW in Shakespeare:  No clue.  In Shakespeare it turned out she was scum.  I'm going to hope the same is true here if we end up on this lynch.

Vote:  EFHW
So all you have is that you have a null read, I'm towny like I was in Shakespeare, and Ashersky thinks I made a scumslip.  I knew I could expect to get increased mistrust after Shakespeare, but even so I don't think town!you would vote based on this, and given the interactions between you and Eevee, and your crusade against xeiron, I'd venture to say you and Eevee may be partners.

This is an aside with no scientific basis whatsoever, but my subjective impression is that posts starting with "Ugh" or "Argh" tend to be by scum.  Has anyone else observed that?  Also purely subjective, the first paragraph of nkirbit's post reads scummy to me.

One problem about lynching EFHW is that when she was scum in RMM7, no one (especially not me) had any clue. So, being suspected a lot doesn't really fit what we know of her previous scum play.
Does fit with Pirates, though!

Argh, generalizations are bad matey!

4207
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« on: July 02, 2013, 04:17:36 pm »
Scum to Chum quicklist:

Robz888 - If he's not scum I might have to eat my hat.  Mostly my gut, I guess (although I've pointed out a few things that irk me in earlier posts).

liopoil - I understand the concept of policy votes, but exceptions to rules ought to be made, and SB's behaviour certainly seemed to warrant the exception, particularly as he's almost certainly town. (Obviously this is now eevee so we'll have some fun confirming that with the new reads).

mcmcsalot - Had the initial "townslip" (I didn't feel it was as strongly pro-town as others did, but that's why we all talk about these things, right?) but is otherwise practically off my radar as just following the "strongest voice" - which is a bit scummy.

mail-mi - For some reason he's just having trouble staying on my radar.

yuma - Slight-to-moderate town, doing lots of analysis, confident posting style, encourages dissent.  Could be pretty good meta-scum play, I suppose.

Voltaire - doesn't trust Yuma, but isn't strictly tunneling anybody.  slight-to-moderate town.

eevee/spiritbears - I'm convinced (based on SB's play) that Eevee is town.  SB was so on tilt at the end that I don't see any chance that it was scum play.

4208
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: July 02, 2013, 12:44:00 pm »
Chairs, you're the dispenser of the paper. Do you believe Xeiron?

Obviously we can't trust Xeiron 100%, but I'm willing to see what happens with this part of the plan.  I don't agree with the no-lynch overall, though, so I'm still considering whom to lynch.

Ash, you are in hardcore tunnel mode though, and not looking at things objectively. It's clear EFHW is in super scramble mode already, that's just an indication of that.
Wait, I don't understand what you're talking about.  Are you saying that EFHW is scum? Or that ashersky is tunnelling too far?  Those seem like opposite ideas.
I'm saying that even if EFHW is scum, ashersky is being way unfair to her, just spinning everything she does into evidence of her being scum. Even if she is scum, it's not like her choosing lighthouse as her avatar or her being worried of being todays lynch are indications of that.

LIGHTHOUSE AVATAR = 1000% SCUMREAD LYNCH TWICE  ;D  I'm again stuck between "man, it kind of feels like ashersky might be scumtunneling" and "man, EFHW is really caught off-kilter on this, is it because it's scum desperately trying to get onto another wagon".  I'm almost tempted to suggest a slight townread for both and that this is some heavy TvT action, because they both seem so genuine (EFHW slightly less so, but I'm somewhat chalking that up to being on the defense).

He asked for two no-lynches, remember.  So scum gets two free passes.  I don't like that about the plan, and absolutely think we don't follow the plan.

So we lynch today, we lynch tomorrow.  We don't lynch X.  I don't think anyone should give him pen/paper, either.
I think the two no-lynches are not a good idea.  Lynching seems to only hurt xeiron's plan if it's the paper giver, the pen giver, or xeiron hiimself.  Well I'm not going to lynch xeiron, I won't lynch chairs, and I think the risk of hitting pen-giver out of the remaining is worth the chance to hit scum.

If I have control of pen/paper, I will absolutely give it to xeiron.  I don't understand why you want to not lynch xeiron, but you also don't want to let him try his plan by giving him paper/pen.

I agree with shraeye and ashersky that the no-lynch idea seems risky at best, but ashersky makes a kind of scummy motion here saying "we shouldn't lynch X, but we shouldn't give him this stuff".  Either he's town (and we want to accommodate him) or he's scum (and we don't).  If he's scum, why not lynch?  I don't get it (so in this situation I'm in agreement with shraeye).

====

I'm kind of in the same boat as theorel - none of the wagons presented are particularly appealing.  However, I'm willing to take a bad lynch over no lynch, I suppose.  I'd like to see some (polite, calm) arguments for/against eevee and efhw cases to see if I can be swayed to either, but I'm leaning towards the relatively-quiet Ahoppy at the moment.

4209
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: July 01, 2013, 07:56:07 pm »
Glad to have you back Chairs, and I look forward to having you catch up and post your reads. One thing I wanted to note:

I agree that SB's /out (followed by the confirmed town post-modkill) was unfortunate, but at least we garnered some information out of it.  The watcher/tracker mixup mention initially made me want to ask for followup from you on what you meant here (potential cop PR or scum or something?) but after rethinking your intent you were just explaining SB (if a watcher, as initially suggested) would have only seen that nobody did anything to Raerae, not whether Raerae did anything (though we now know that SB was a tracker and the "Raerae did nothing" description is accurate, suggesting town).

Even though Raerae did nothing, this doesn't really suggest that she's town in any way. It's RMM, so scum and town both have night actions. I get a null read from it, and I'm not going to give her any town credit for it. (though I DO still think she's town).

I'm glad to be back.  You make an interesting argument here, though I'll argue that not handing out an item is a slight town action as scum could freely share what items they have/need without giving information to town (arguably, this is presuming that scum have a QT they can discuss in - I don't recall if we had any clarification on game setup to know if this is the case).  Town certainly do not, as a rule, do that without risk - though it may be better to give/receive than simply to hoard it all to ourselves, since we will presumably need the additional powers from the items to really amp up our chance to win.



Now here's an interesting situation.  I agree with TA on this, and this leans towards ash being slightly scum.  If Ash is not a native-born English speaker, I would lean more towards null-read from this as it could be language barrier in a very very specific sort of context.



I'm the opposite actually.  Native speaker, degree in English - Creative Writing.  It might be that I take word choice/language into consideration too much when analyzing the game.  It's why I hinge on things like "since instead of if" in sentences like that.

Perhaps.  To me (as someone who is a native speak and well-read, but not a writing major) it seemed obvious that the original statement was just speculation.  I felt you were overreaching for a scumslip, but I know a lot of creative writing majors and I could totally see that kind of "YOU SAID THIS EXACT THING" ocd-esque behavior from them.  Null-read for you it is, then.

Glad to have you back Chairs, and I look forward to having you catch up and post your reads. One thing I wanted to note:

I agree that SB's /out (followed by the confirmed town post-modkill) was unfortunate, but at least we garnered some information out of it.  The watcher/tracker mixup mention initially made me want to ask for followup from you on what you meant here (potential cop PR or scum or something?) but after rethinking your intent you were just explaining SB (if a watcher, as initially suggested) would have only seen that nobody did anything to Raerae, not whether Raerae did anything (though we now know that SB was a tracker and the "Raerae did nothing" description is accurate, suggesting town).

Even though Raerae did nothing, this doesn't really suggest that she's town in any way. It's RMM, so scum and town both have night actions. I get a null read from it, and I'm not going to give her any town credit for it. (though I DO still think she's town).

I think it tells us raerae did not give an item to anyone, as Arch previously confirmed role powers interact normally with item powers.

Raerae handing out nothing is arguably town-friendly, as scum could presumably hand items out to other scum on N0 without risk to encourage benefit from sharing.  Town handouts are presumably always risk/reward, though arguably still better than nothing.


tl;dr though I understand TA's logic in first quote, I disagree that it is a full null-read on Raerae and lean town!Raerae because no item being handed out seems more likely to be town than scum.  I would argue null-reads on both ashersky and ta currently based on their last few posts.

4210
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« on: July 01, 2013, 07:44:54 pm »
(Important note - this was suppposed to be part of my post 2 posts ago.  Sorry for any confusion this causes!)

I'm back! From Outer Space! (Or at least Chicago).   The post-count for this game was somewhat reasonable, thank goodness, so I'll try to address what jumped out at me for D2 (sectioning it off):

====

Um, I find it EXTREMELY weird that yuma says he has a case against liopoil, doesn't give it, and mcmc and SB vote without even hearing the case! Okay, sheeple.

Vote: mcmc
Except mcmc gave a reason and sb sheeped that one. Just to be clear.

The reason mcmc gave is paper thin.

I did feel mcmc's response in this post was not well-argued.  It leads me to a slight scum read on mcmc, even though I still feel there's potential for scum!Robz here trying to look helpful (while potentially throwing the finger) - I found Robz scummy on D1 (albeit I don't currently recall why - I'm probably going to suck it up and re-read everybody) and I'm getting nil-to-slightly-town!Robz D2 so far in the posts.

====

I have two questions for you:

1. Why do you disagree? aka, why would hammering a townread ever help you achieve the town wincon? not asking you to change your mind, just wondering.
2. Why does me holding a belief you disagree with make me more likely to be scum?
1) you're asking the wrong question. The question is exactly how did I hurt town by hammering a player that had been at l-1 for quite a while, had plenty of chances to fight for his life and refused, had plenty of chances to give reads, claim etc. And didn't, etc.  Exactly how was nk helping us? The answer is he wasn't. And you defending that kind of play...and going further declaring it scummy to EVER hammer a player in that situation is just not good fir us...it's scummy
2. See above
spiritbears, that lynch wasn't a done deal. It was still possible for us to lynch somebody else that day. nkirbit didn't play perfectly, and maybe could have done more to prevent his lynch, but up until your hammer, there wasn't a 5th person to vote for him. chances are he would've been lynched anyway, but you made it certain.

I do agree with that, actually.

There's an argument on both sides here; I can see the point SB was making, but a mislynch is a mislynch, regardless of if you feel it helped the game.  Was nkirbit playing poorly? Maybe.  Maybe.  Was that, by itself, a reason to lynch? I don't think so, but I won't necessarily that SB was wrong to do so (I still have to weigh the options on this one).  An interesting situation occurs here, though, in that this does give me a slight hint of scum!Robz with the "I agree, SB is either mistaken or scum" implication of his post without further discussion.  It seems to me that town would want to dissect this in a bit more detail to try to figure out which of the two scenarios was correct.

====

You and mcmc were clearly following yuma's vote, which carried no explanation. Mcmc's quick justification of the sheeping rings false to me. You, I tihnk, are merely wrong.

I hate to feel like I'm tunneling Robz, but this is another post that just struck my "You don't seem as though you should necessarily be that concise" nerve.  Why does mcmc sound bad when SB just sounds wrong (and admittedly perhaps a bit stubborn)?  Your lack of deep explanation makes this post somewhat less than beneficial, I think (I welcome and encourage disagreement/critique here) and continues your slide towards scum!Robz in my mind.

====

I'm going to walk away from here...my appoligies to Shraeye. Your game was fun and I enjoyed it. But apparently I have made this game unfun for many of you here.  I'm sorry

I have thoroughly enjoyed playing with you, but I do feel you are taking a game based upon "trust no one" too personally/seriously, perhaps.  I hope you'll change your mind, if I didn't miss the /out post (and you really haven't /outed yet).

====

Is chairs still V/LA?

I am (finally) back :)  I didn't understand that there was a V/LA thread to post to, in the future you'll see me post there when I have to be gone.


4211
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« on: July 01, 2013, 07:43:35 pm »
Rather, Vote: Robz

4212
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« on: July 01, 2013, 07:43:14 pm »
vote: liopoil

Alas I do not have time to give complete reasonings as to why. I have been at work all day--following along via e-mail's--and will be there again tomorrow until evening when I will be able to post something a bit more substantial.

I'll let you all hypothesize as to why I am voting for him though, that sounds like fun...
well, okay...

nkirbit DID defend himself, I can quote his posts for you. I don't think it was his fault he got mislynched, it was the fault of the people on the wagon and the fault of everyone off wagon not defending him. No way should town EVER hammer somebody they have a townread on under any circumstance. This excuse it just way too convenient for spiritbears.
Hopefully the same reason I am going to vote: liopoil we just went over how much town needed to stop shooting itself in the foot with statements like this (bolded above) That is way too weak a reason to push a D2 wagon and is not  scum hunting or analyzing its theorizing about what is "towny" which has not worked for town recently.
no. it's the opposite:

"we just went over how much town needs to stop shooting itself in the foot with statements like this: (No way should town EVER hammer somebody they have a townread on under any circumstance.)"

I'M town shooting myself in the foot?(1) well if I'm town, why are you voting for me? more importantly, how do you know I'm town?(2) clearly you don't think I'm town though, so I don't understand why me "shooting myself in the foot" (which I only "am" according to you if I'm town) is scummy. Are you saying that if I'm town, I'm shooting myself in the foot, but if I'm town, I wouldn't shoot myself in the foot, so I'm scum? That would make perfect sense if I was shooting myself in the foot, but I'm not.

I say that town should never hammer their townread, which I believe to be true. Based on this, spiritbears, if town, wouldn't hammer his townread(3). because he did something I don't think would happen if he is town, I think he is scum. It's just logic, and I think it's valid logic and a quite strong reason for a lynch on D2.  The only potential flaw I see is that perhaps SB did shoot himself in the foot. It seems everyone thinks that he did. I am giving him the assumption that he would not do what I see to be a mistake.

"That is way too weak a reason to push a D2 wagon and is not  scum hunting or analyzing its theorizing about what is "towny" which has not worked for town recently."

I don't think it is weak. I think it is a good line of reasoning. It's scumhunting, because I'm town who thinks SB is scum. I'm theorizing about what town would and wouldn't do. the reason it has not worked for town is that town has been playing badly and doing things that town shouldn't do. If town started acting like town it would be a lot easier to lynch scum.

mcmc, why do you think I am scum? the only line of reasoning I can sort of find in your post is that "If liopoil is town he is shooting himself in the foot, he wouldn't shoot himself in the foot, so he's scum". And that, as it happens, is the exact same reasoning I am using to find SB to be scum, which you disagree with yourself.

This is the sort if thing that makes me think you are scum and I really need to remember after this game so I can improve my reading of you.

Let me clarify what I meant and why I thought you were scummy.
1) I don't think you are town shooting yourself in the foot I think generally townies have been shooting themselves in the foot by lynching based on this "town shouldn't do X" logic. Now seeing as we just had that discussion I think it is more likely scum!liopoil pushes the wagon that "town shouldn't do X" than that town!liopoil actually thinks spiritbears is scummy for hammering a town read.

My second issue with this is that it is a completely safe legitimate unprovable wagon which I am being extra cautious of. I mean yes sb had a town read yes he hammered him, I don't think that means he is any more likely to be scum, so you saying he did that is safe and in my opinion pushing a townie lynch, so I find you scummy for it.

2) this is something else I find really scummy, you decide I have a bad reasoning for finding you scummy and say I think your townie(I wasn't saying that) then piggyback onto the same statement that I a scummy because "how do I know your town" I mean really that is so much of a jump to an advantageous position for yourself and it something I find scum more likely to do(it's very similar to the tactic ash used against me previously) you sweep my argument under the rug and exclaim I'm scummy in the same breath without any response or reason.

I really REALLY like mcmc coming back to give us this more detailed explanation.  I wish I'd gotten it in the first post (that Robz is poking at originally, albeit half-heartedly).  The clarity he adds here is very interesting, and does make a good argument for scum!liopoil.

Overall, despite the strong argument from mcmc on D2, I'm going to stick with my instincts following my D1 vote.  vote: Robz

4213
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: July 01, 2013, 07:16:22 pm »
I'm back from Chicago!    :D  You've all been exceedingly prolific this weekend, haven't you?  And SB... that's an unfortunate situation, there.  It reinforces my opinion that TA was the scummier of the two (at the time I made that decision), though at current moment I'm hard-pressed to argue that it's necessarily TA.

I'm sure I'm going to miss some important posts, given the volume, but in my re-reading of the thread here are some posts I found important (sectioning them out):

====
I'm still processing all the new posts (sorry I've been missing) and I think that we could safely say that either spiritbears or ta are likely scum.  There are potential other options but those two could have been arguing for the benefit of detracting from meaningful conversation. Since we're looking close to soft deadline... vote: twistedarcher

People questioned why Chairs came to the conclusion that one of the two are likely scum, but I don't think anyone asked:

Why did you pick TA as your vote rather than SB, Chairs?  Was there a reason?

TA was on the attack, and seemed remarkably aggressive for somebody who wasn't already sold on lynching.  We've since had a discussion that this is typical of TA, but at the time I felt it was awfully scummy to try to push that case so hard, especially since spiritbears appears to be easily put "on tilt" in a way that scum could potentially abuse more heavily than town.
====

====
-- He brings up the possibility that scum can steal items.  This could be read either way, but in general I don't think scum would want to alert town to possible dangers, especially since scum could get a stealing power from items even if they don't have one now.
See bolded sentence for possible scumslip, or yet another instance of town claiming information on accident.  How could you know scum can gain the ability to steal something from items?  Scum might know this from their own info.  Or you yourself know of such an item, as town.  But really, this is bad.  Like, lynching bad.
I think you must be misunderstanding me.  My reasoning went like this:

1.  If scum has a stealing power and TA is scum, he would not remind town of the possibility.
2.  If scum doesn't have stealing power, TA could still be scum and bring up stealing to create confusion and seem towny.
3.  BUT in this game, even if scum doesn't have stealing power now, they could get it in the future and therefore #1 still applies, and this is evidence of TA's towniness.

The possibility of a scumslip lies in the possibility of you saying "The power's out there, and scum COULD get it", rather than it coming across as "There COULD be a power out there that lets scum do this". Ash is interpreting as the first I presume. I don't agree that this is necessarily the case.

Now here's an interesting situation.  I agree with TA on this, and this leans towards ash being slightly scum.  If Ash is not a native-born English speaker, I would lean more towards null-read from this as it could be language barrier in a very very specific sort of context.

====

Ahoppy is v/la, btw, and I think chairs said he would be gone, too?  He didn't put it in the v/la thread.

I guess I'm not familiar with the v/la thread, I must have missed it.  I'm back now, but I'll keep that in mind for any future absences.

====

Unvote

I believe the claim, SB has no reason to lie if he's /outing. I think it's silly that we have a basically verified town member due to it, but oh well that's the game.

SB also got watcher/tracker confused, I think. No one targeted Raerae last night -- Raerae still very well may have performed actions.

I agree that SB's /out (followed by the confirmed town post-modkill) was unfortunate, but at least we garnered some information out of it.  The watcher/tracker mixup mention initially made me want to ask for followup from you on what you meant here (potential cop PR or scum or something?) but after rethinking your intent you were just explaining SB (if a watcher, as initially suggested) would have only seen that nobody did anything to Raerae, not whether Raerae did anything (though we now know that SB was a tracker and the "Raerae did nothing" description is accurate, suggesting town).

====

Additional notes:
X's idea is interesting, but a proper lynch could potentially set us in a decent position.  The primary argument for no-lynch that I can think of (if we want to see X's concept through) is that we might mislynch the person with pen (since we have paper, it does seem reasonable that we have some sort of writing implement).  That being said, I'm not sold on no-lynch.  There's a few people who have bounced back and forth between "maybe scum?" and "hell I don't know" a few times in the 10 pages I just read, but I'll try to provide some sort of scum-to-chum list (with reasoning) soon.

====

Summary:
I'm back, there's lots of fun new things going on from a very prolific posting weekend.  I like X's idea but dislike that we have to no-lynch twice to maximize his chances of it working, and despite his relatively pro-town look there's still certainly opportunity for him to be scum (just as there is for all of us who are still alive) and a pair of no-lynch nights, if the gambit does not work, could go very pro-scum.  I'd like to make a scum-to-chum list but I'm still recovering from my 4-day-drinkathon so I will produce one Soon(tm).

unvote

4214
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« on: June 30, 2013, 11:35:37 am »
Well, that could have gone better.  I'm still on limited access until about 36 hours from now. What can we glean from this? Who pushed this Wagon hardest, etc

4215
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: June 30, 2013, 11:24:38 am »
I'm still processing all the new posts (sorry I've been missing) and I think that we could safely say that either spiritbears or ta are likely scum.  There are potential other options but those two could have been arguing for the benefit of detracting from meaningful conversation. Since we're looking close to soft deadline... vote: twistedarcher

4216
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: June 26, 2013, 05:31:50 pm »
I guess I'm just shoved under the table and don't count in the not voting count?  :o

4217
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: June 26, 2013, 04:40:58 pm »
FWIW - I will be taking a trip to Chicago, and will have limited posting abilities (not that I think my posting has been terribly productive to begin with) for at least the next 24 hours.  I suspect I will have semi-regular access to a computer once I get there, but if not i can at least post from my phone.  Apologies in advance for the afk.

I think I unvoted already to prevent being on any accidental wagon while I"m out, but if not: unvote

4218
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« on: June 26, 2013, 03:48:11 pm »
FWIW, I am heading out of town tomorrow, so I will be MIA for quite a while following my departure from work today (probably won't get to post for at least 24 hours from this post, other than posts I make from now til end of workday).  Once I get into Chicago and settled, I'll try to find a way to get online and post.

4219
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« on: June 26, 2013, 03:14:24 pm »
(reading him in ZM14 too, where I know he was town and chewed through mafia [though that game is obviously different with high odds of success and iffy scum play] so I have something to compare)
Because if townYuma is as awesome as everyone says, I want to listen to townYuma! Just going to start with a Yuma I know is town...

I'd never thought to go back to games people had previously played to try to get a psych read on them.  I like this idea a lot!

4220
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: June 26, 2013, 12:24:10 pm »
Given that I voted for Shraeye as a joke, and it now looks as though he may be seriously being voted for (and I haven't made up my mind about the evidence so far provided)...

unvote

4221
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia XXVI: Back to Basics (Day 1 start)
« on: June 26, 2013, 11:49:33 am »
Your timeline Yuma is much more helpful. I see both nk and robz as conning off bad from it...I'm reconsidering nk. Robz I still see as opportunistic scum.

Yes I thought it might be helpful to put things into context. I do agree that Robz has some of the traits that I see in nkribit, but I think my belief is that nkirbit is even more so, whereas Robz I think could be considered more... not coincidental, but... I can't think of the word... more circumstantial? (that isn't the word either, but I can't remember what it is... ugh... it has been far too long since my last humanities class...)

circumspect?

Also, yuma, thank you for the post on nkirbit.  You make a very interesting and fairly compelling argument.  I'm not sold on switching my vote, but you've given me something to think about for sure.

4222
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: June 26, 2013, 09:11:50 am »
Anyways, scumhunting...involves reads...means I need to figure out what I think of these players.  I doubt I think anything right now, but I need to try to keep people straight, and this is still the best way I've found to do that day1.  It puts my mind in the game and helps me keep track of what I think of people, making me think of them at all.  Hopefully I can start sorting all of you out.  This is a long post, so I expect shraeye and raerae to skip it :P

1. ashersky: active, provocative.  These are general ashersky properties based on what I've seen.  null read.  (scumScore...null=25)

2. Eevee: Very little activity.  Not exactly normal for Eevee, but I think he's been posting somewhat less lately?  Or maybe he posts less in non-normal games.  I dunno, I feel like I've noticed a lot of "not much posting" regarding Eevee in my skimming.  So I'm going to call this basically null for now, but might revise if someone tells me that my thought there is incorrect. scumScore=26

3. xeiron: he's posted like twice (3 times now)?  I've never played with him as far as I remember.  Seems reasonably concerned about claiming...but ultimately I've got nothing.  scumScore=25 (Oh, his name is typoed in the opening post btw)

4. raerae: Seems like typical raerae (i.e. abrasive, joking).  I'm not sure I've seen raerae as scum (in terms of when skimming other games...I know I've never played with scum raerae).  So I guess I lean town here.  scumScore=20

5. mail-mi: First player I've not really noticed.  I know he's posted some stuff, and has received some comments.  I think there was a back and forth with ashersky last night regarding how he voted for ashersky?  I'll try to pay more attention to him.  scumScore=25

6. TwistedArcher: Has posted a lot.  Not sure if "appeasing" is a scum-trait when applied to twistedarcher.  I know it isn't when applied to me, and I know that I have a tendency to appease (maybe I only try to appease and actually don't? Robz always thinks I'm scum because I ask permission to do things like vote though...).  He's gotten a lot of heat, which generally makes me lean town.  scumScore=20

7. chairs: He claimed paper, so we know he beats rock, and loses to scissors.  He's a green card that helps with splaying (thematically because he helps pass down information from one age to the next).  Early uninformed claims are usually town (though they are also usually mislynched).  This wasn't quite as early, although it was broadcast early.  Still likely to be town.  scumScore=20.

8. shraeye: I can't pretend that I can read shraeye.  I've only really pegged him as scum once, and he was of course town that time (and IC to boot).  He seems to have played a similar gambit to ashersky, except he decided to build an actual weak/day-1 case on TA?  (unlike ashersky who did it to provoke).  Um...I'm going to play it safe and lean scum here.  scumScore=28

9. Ahoppy: Second player I haven't noticed.  This time I've got absolutely nothing.  I don't know if he's been posting little, or if I don't know him and so don't have a voice to associate with him.  Can't remember other comments regarding him.  No knowledge of player means slight scum right?  (even if it's entirely my own fault) scumScore=27

10. EFHW: One of the three players in conversation last night (with TA and ashersky).  I think she's the one taking the opposite viewpoint to me regarding claiming (i.e. that we should claim items we have rather than items we need).  ashersky thinks she sounds like when she's scum.  Eevee thinks that she sounds like Efhw.  I don't know her meta.  I've got nothing really.  scumScore=25

11. spiritbears: One of these days spiritbears is going to be scum, and we'll all be surprised.  I don't know enough about how spiritbears plays mafia, except that everyone always thinks he's town.  I can see why...I think he's town too.  And I can't even figure out why (I don't remember anything he's actually said, just that he seems like town.)  scumScore=20

12. theorel: Yep, I'm here.  I'm the most pro-town player around, even if I always lose anyways.  At least people don't usually suspect me until around day3.  scumScore=0.

13. nkirbit: I was about to say I remembered nothing, then I remembered...he called himself out for underposting, after someone didn't call him out for it (ahoppy maybe?  I'll have to check).  I think this might actually be a scum trait based on experience (I remember Galzria calling himself out in DS9.  I think other scum has done it in the past).  Although it seems like a townie thing to do, maybe it's one of those town things that scum does to look townie?  Meh, the better townie response would be to post more.  Well, I'm not going to build a case around it, but I'll lean scum here for now, scumScore=28.

I like this type of post.  When/if I find time today, I'll try to share my opinions in a similar vein.

4223
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: June 25, 2013, 08:13:01 pm »
Also in the post you just made, ashersky, you mention knowing about raerae's playstyle.  I'm having to pick up playstyle clues effectively from nil which affects my decisionmaking, certainly.

4224
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: June 25, 2013, 08:11:03 pm »
I want to get scumhunting done, but I know I'm not good at it... right now, I'm waiting on mail-mi and chairs.  Although, this seems to be normal mai-mi: scummy and silent...

Well, I've mostly been quiet as I don't really have anything to add to the discussion and everything I've added so far I've been told is bad form.

I'm going to go ahead and item claim, though, since the earlier subtle reference was missed and I think my item's pretty darn innocuous: I have paper.

See, this just opens up more questions than anything.  Did you start with the paper?  Receive the paper?  We can infer that you might be Cai Lun or Gutenberg now.

Certainly it does open up questions, but I simply don't see where else we can go for scumhunting other than to get at least some relevant information out there  (granted, it seems most of you are playing at a lot higher level of WIFOM than I am, so perhaps I'm just missing it).  I don't know where we draw the line on what questions we do/don't answer here.

4225
Mafia Game Threads / Re: RMM8 Innovation Inc. (Day 1 Start!)
« on: June 25, 2013, 08:04:23 pm »
I'm neutral on the no-lynch concept in this game, and here's why:

Normally it appears that lynching is (overall) the correct option.

Pros to no-lynch in this game happen to include the paper-pushing option to invent cool stuff that gives us additional roles - and a dead townie means we can't get his piece of a potentially cool item (I'm willing to accept the loss for dead scum).

Pros to lynching in this game, aside from the obvious "killing scum is good" option, are that we don't actually know what the scum wincons are, and it's entirely possible that inventing X, Y, or Z item are among them, so more items still around offers them more opportunity to snag those items (either via power roles [potentially] or via their town face).

What is "paper-pushing"?

This subtle reference that was "missed"?

Fair enough, I missed your post.

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