I'm annotating some Rebuild mirrors to complement
this strategy article. Some of my terms and analysis here won't make sense unless you've read it first, or at least skimmed the three "Post-Duchy Strategies."
SM.SM and I played this mirror on June 6th. SM.SM (aka 'sm') isn't too active on the forums, but he's an online Dominion regular who was Level 35 on Iso and is currently #12 on Goko.
I've annotated the key buys, the post-Duchy decision, and the end-game. I've presented more analysis here than I probably did during the game. If anything, turn 10 suggests that I'd been drinking heavily that evening.
Summary:This was a reasonably well-played Rebuild mirror with a few strategic errors during the Duchy race. SM.SM's early Bandit Camp should have cost him the split, but three of my early Rebuilds failed to find Estates and he was able to split Duchies 4-4... or would have except for an interesting good I made on T10. I also failed to capitalize on my early Rebuild lead by passing on a fourth Estate and a third Rebuild.
Duchies emptied too slowly for us to keep all three post-Duchy strategies open. I committed to Rebuild-BM early while SM.SM spread his buys across all three strategies. That usually results in all three strategies failing, but this time they all worked: on T10-T11 he rebuilt two Duchies and bought a Province and an Estate, reducing my lead to just 2 VP.
This would have been a more illustrative game if there had been more time for us to implement our post-Duchy strategies. Mutual good luck short-circuited that and we jumped straight from the Duchy race to the end-game. As in many Rebuild mirrors, it came down to just a few VP with Rebuild searches and Estates deciding the winner.
AI vs SM.SM: AI wins 30-24 on T13 (
Full Log)
The most important Rebuild support cards here are Courtyard and Nomad Camp. Fortune Teller isn't great in a Rebuild mirror, since Rebuild itself soft-counters it and it tells your opponent what his top VP card is. Bureaucrat is too slow. Bandit Camp and/or Embassy may eventually support Rebuild-BM, but neither $5 card should be purchased before the Duchies run out.
A Torturer engine looks like the strongest non-Rebuild option, but I expect Rebuild to clobber it. There's no trashing, no cantrip sifting or draw, and the only village is $5. Rebuild doesn't grind to a halt when you fill it up with Curses anyway, nor does it mind discarding 2 or even 4 cards from many of its mid-game hands.
---------- Andrew Iannaccone: turn 1 ----------
Andrew Iannaccone - plays 3 Copper
Andrew Iannaccone - buys Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Estate, Copper, Copper, Copper, Copper
---------- SM.SM: turn 1 ----------
SM.SM - plays 3 Copper
SM.SM - buys Silver
SM.SM - gains Silver
SM.SM - draws Estate, Copper, Copper, Copper, Copper
---------- Andrew Iannaccone: turn 2 ----------
Andrew Iannaccone - plays 4 Copper
Andrew Iannaccone - buys Courtyard
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Courtyard
Andrew Iannaccone - shuffles deck
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Copper, Courtyard, Estate, Copper, Estate
---------- SM.SM: turn 2 ----------
SM.SM - plays 4 Copper
SM.SM - buys Nomad Camp
SM.SM - gains Nomad Camp
SM.SM - draws Nomad Camp
SM.SM - shuffles deck
SM.SM - draws Estate, Silver, Estate, CopperI like the flexibility of Courtyard here. There's no clearly dominant post-Duchy strategy, so I'd like to avoid committing myself too early.
---------- Andrew Iannaccone: turn 3 ----------
Andrew Iannaccone - plays Courtyard
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Silver, Copper, Copper
Andrew Iannaccone - places Copper on top of deck
Andrew Iannaccone - plays 3 Copper, 1 Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - buys Rebuild
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Rebuild
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Copper, Copper, Copper, Copper, Estate
---------- SM.SM: turn 3 ----------
SM.SM - plays Nomad Camp
SM.SM - plays 1 Silver, 1 Copper
SM.SM - buys Bandit Camp
SM.SM - gains Bandit Camp
SM.SM - draws Copper, Estate, Copper, Copper, CopperBandit Camp instead of Rebuild suggests that SM.SM is planning a Torturer engine.
---------- Andrew Iannaccone: turn 4 ----------
Andrew Iannaccone - plays 4 Copper
Andrew Iannaccone - buys Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - shuffles deck
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Courtyard, Estate, Copper, Copper, Estate
---------- SM.SM: turn 4 ----------
SM.SM - plays 4 Copper
SM.SM - buys Courtyard
SM.SM - gains Courtyard
SM.SM - draws Copper, Copper
SM.SM - shuffles deck
SM.SM - draws Copper, Copper, Copper
---------- Andrew Iannaccone: turn 5 ----------
Andrew Iannaccone - plays Courtyard
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Copper, Estate, Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - places Estate on top of deck
Andrew Iannaccone - plays 3 Copper, 1 Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - buys Rebuild
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Rebuild
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Estate, Copper, Copper, Rebuild, Copper
---------- SM.SM: turn 5 ----------
SM.SM - plays 5 Copper
SM.SM - buys Rebuild
SM.SM - gains Rebuild
SM.SM - draws Estate, Estate, Nomad Camp, Estate, CourtyardThis buy surprises me. If SM.SM goes Rebuild now, he'll need some luck to catch up. The Spoils from Bandit Camp will help, but with my head start and first player advantage, I'll be a big favorite to win the Duchy split.
---------- Andrew Iannaccone: turn 6 ----------
Andrew Iannaccone - plays Rebuild
Andrew Iannaccone - names Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - shuffles deck
Andrew Iannaccone - reveals Copper, Silver, Estate
Andrew Iannaccone - discards: Copper, Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - trashes Estate
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - plays 3 Copper
Andrew Iannaccone - buys Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Rebuild, Courtyard, Copper, Copper, SilverA fourth Estate was probably better here. It's a bad play when the Duchy race is close, but here I'm far enough ahead to justify it. With my 2 Rebuilds and 1 Duchy to SM.SN's 1 Rebuild and 0 Duchies, I can reasonably expect to have time to rebuild all four Estates.
---------- SM.SM: turn 6 ----------
SM.SM - plays Courtyard
SM.SM - draws Copper, Copper, Silver
SM.SM - places Nomad Camp on top of deck
SM.SM - plays 2 Copper, 1 Silver
SM.SM - buys Silver
SM.SM - gains Silver
SM.SM - draws Nomad Camp, Bandit Camp
SM.SM - shuffles deck
SM.SM - draws Courtyard, Silver, Copper
---------- Andrew Iannaccone: turn 7 ----------
Andrew Iannaccone - plays Rebuild
Andrew Iannaccone - names Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - reveals Estate
Andrew Iannaccone - trashes Estate
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - plays Courtyard
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Copper
Andrew Iannaccone - shuffles deck
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Copper, Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - places Silver on top of deck
Andrew Iannaccone - plays 4 Copper, 1 Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - buys Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Silver, Rebuild, Duchy, Copper, EstateI've now rebuilt two of my starting Estates and there are still 6 Duchies left. With a $2-$4 hand, I would definitely buy a fourth Estate. "Unfortunately," I've hit $5 again.
I think I should have bought a third Rebuild here instead of a Duchy. It definitely looks like I'm going to win the Duchy split, and I'll probably do so while clearing out my Estates. If that happens, then Turbo is going to be great.
---------- SM.SM: turn 7 ----------
SM.SM - plays Bandit Camp
SM.SM - draws Copper
SM.SM - gains Spoils
SM.SM - plays Courtyard
SM.SM - draws Estate, Copper, Estate
SM.SM - places Silver on top of deck
SM.SM - plays Nomad Camp
SM.SM - plays 3 Copper
SM.SM - buys Rebuild
SM.SM - gains Rebuild
SM.SM - draws Silver, Rebuild, Copper, Copper, CopperSM.SM buys a second Rebuild. Ok, no doubting his commitment now.
---------- Andrew Iannaccone: turn 8 ----------
Andrew Iannaccone - plays Rebuild
Andrew Iannaccone - names Province
Andrew Iannaccone - reveals Silver, Copper, Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - discards: Silver, Copper
Andrew Iannaccone - trashes Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Province
Andrew Iannaccone - plays 1 Silver, 1 Copper
Andrew Iannaccone - buys Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Copper
Andrew Iannaccone - shuffles deck
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Rebuild, Province, Estate, CopperI draw a Rebuild with my only remaining Estate. Argh! Now I definitely wish I'd bought an Estate on T6.
I Rebuild a Duchy into a Province, which is going to cost me some control over my future Rebuilds. From here on, I'll have all three types of VP cards in my deck, so I may not be able to force my Rebuilds to hit my Estates. That's bad, though it's not such a huge liability that I'll pass on a Province to avoid it.
A fourth Estate doesn't look as good here as it did on T6. When Duchies go late, they tend to go all at once because the decks have improved in the interim. Here SM.SM still doesn't have any Duchies, but he's added a second Rebuild and another Silver. With a Province interfering with my Rebuilds, I'm not at all confident that I'll have time to rebuild two more Estates.
---------- SM.SM: turn 8 ----------
SM.SM - plays Rebuild
SM.SM - names Province
SM.SM - reveals Silver, Copper, Estate
SM.SM - discards: Silver, Copper
SM.SM - trashes Estate
SM.SM - gains Duchy
SM.SM - plays 3 Copper, 1 Silver
SM.SM - buys Rebuild
SM.SM - gains Rebuild
SM.SM - shuffles deck
SM.SM - draws Rebuild, Copper, Bandit Camp, Courtyard, SilverSM.SM's deck is starting to warm up. He rebuilds an Estate and picks up a third Rebuild. Note how much time that early Bandit Camp cost him. He didn't buy a Rebuild until after his second shuffle, and he's only now playing his first one. In a lot of Rebuild mirrors, Duchies are
gone by T8.
I'd definitely buy a Duchy rather than a third Rebuild in his position. With only 5 Duchies left and 2 Rebuilds plus good production in my deck, it's likely that Duchies are going to run out too quickly for that third Rebuild to get him a Duchy. If he loses the split, then that third Rebuild isn't going to be a super-star for him either.
A third Rebuild also says Turbo, while his Bandit Camp, Courtyard, Nomad Camp, and Spoils are better preparation for Rebuild-BM or possibly an Estate Blitz. Spreading yourself too thin between the strategies is a good way to fail with all three.
---------- Andrew Iannaccone: turn 9 ----------
Andrew Iannaccone - plays Rebuild
Andrew Iannaccone - names Province
Andrew Iannaccone - reveals Copper, Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - discards Copper
Andrew Iannaccone - trashes Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Province
Andrew Iannaccone - plays 2 Copper
Andrew Iannaccone - buys Courtyard
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Courtyard
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Silver, Rebuild, Copper, Copper, CopperI draw my one Estate again, so I rebuild another Duchy. I then have the option of buying an Estate.
There's no way I'll get to rebuild two more Estates now. If I buy one, it's semi-committing me to an Estate Blitz. I don't want want that just yet, both because my deck doesn't support it and because I might still get to rebuild my third Estate. If that happens, then I'll be Estate-free with at least a 4-4 split (more likely 5-3) and two-Province lead. That would be an easy win. I also think it's a lot more likely that another Courtyard will get me an extra $8 hand than that I'll pick up 6 Estates more than SM.SM.
---------- SM.SM: turn 9 ----------
SM.SM - plays Bandit Camp
SM.SM - draws Copper
SM.SM - gains Spoils
SM.SM - plays Courtyard
SM.SM - draws Estate, Copper, Nomad Camp
SM.SM - places Estate on top of deck
SM.SM - plays Rebuild
SM.SM - names Province
SM.SM - reveals Estate
SM.SM - trashes Estate
SM.SM - gains Duchy
SM.SM - plays Nomad Camp
SM.SM - plays 3 Copper, 1 Silver
SM.SM - buys Duchy
SM.SM - gains Duchy
SM.SM - buys Courtyard
SM.SM - gains Courtyard
SM.SM - draws Rebuild, Rebuild, Copper, Estate, SpoilsJust two Duchies left.
---------- Andrew Iannaccone: turn 10 ----------
Andrew Iannaccone - plays Rebuild
Andrew Iannaccone - names Province
Andrew Iannaccone - reveals Copper, Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - discards Copper
Andrew Iannaccone - trashes Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - plays 3 Copper, 1 Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - buys Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Courtyard, Silver, Silver, Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - shuffles deck
Andrew Iannaccone - draws CopperIf that turn didn't surprise you, then you should probably re-read it more carefully.
I'll wait.
.
.
.
Andrew Iannaccone - trashes Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Duchy
Yep, I rebuilt a Duchy into
another Duchy. Inexcusable. I really wanted to hit that elusive third Estate here, but that's no reason to rage-Duchy.
I can't remember now whether this was fancy-play syndrome or just a misclick, but it does raise an interesting question. I win the Duchy split 4-3 and I take the last Duchy from SM.SM, who would otherwise be likely to rebuild his last Estate into it. Could this sort of play ever actually be the right move?
I think it's plausible in spots where unrebuildable Estates do your opponent a whole lot of damage. I'd do it if SM.SM still had two Estates and a fourth Rebuild instead of a Bandit Camp. I think I'd also do it in a Rebuild-Rogue game, where gaining Duchies from the trash means you really, really don't want your Rebuilds to trip over your Estates.
Here's it's definitely wrong. I'm 9 VP ahead (and I would be 12 VP ahead), but SM.SM has more Duchies left, more Rebuilds, and at least as much money density as me. My edge here is my VP lead, so every Province that leaves the pile is great news for me.
In any case, the Duchy pile is empty now, so I know the split and can select my post-Duchy strategy. It's unusually late in the game, so I don't have as much flexibility as usual. Still, even one or two extra Golds, Rebuilds, or Nomad Camps can have a meaningful impact with all the reshuffling from Rebuild. It's worthwhile to go through the exercise.
Here are the decks:
- SM.SM: 1 Bandit Camp, 2 Courtyard, 1 Nomad Camp, 3 Rebuild, 7 Copper, 2 Silver, 2 Spoils, 1 Estate, 3 Duchy
- AI: 2 Courtyard, 2 Rebuild, 7 Copper, 4 Silver, 1 Estate, 2 Duchy, 2 Province
And here are my post-Duchy strategy considerations:
- The Split: I've won the Duchy split 4-3, but two of my Duchies have already become Provinces. That's good for me, but having only two productive Rebuild targets left also means I don't have as much to gain from Turbo as usual.
- The Kingdom: Bandit Camp, Courtyard, and Embassy make for good Rebuild-BM support. Nomad Camp supports an Estate Blitz. Courtyard offers tolerable support for Turbo.
- My Deck: My deck already looks a lot like Rebuild-BM. If I add a Gold, Embassy, or Bandit camp, I should be able to hit $8 once or twice.
- My Opponent: SM.SM's deck isn't really set up for any single strategy, but I can guess what he's going to do anyway. With a 9-VP deficit and only 3 Duchies, Turbo can't win. He's also far enough behind to need to gamble, so an Estate Blitz doesn't look great. He pretty much has to go Rebuild-BM.
An Estate Blitz is my best response to the score and to SM.SM's high-variance plan, but my deck really doesn't support it. With 2 Courtyard, 4 Silver, 2 Rebuilds, and no Nomad Camps, I'm pretty much committed to Rebuild-BM. I would have had more flexibility if Duchies hadn't gone so late or if there weren't already two Provinces gone, but this game isn't going to last too much longer.
My plan is to Rebuild Duchies when I can, trash Provinces when I have to gamble, and spend my $5-$7 hands on Embassy, Bandit Camp, and Gold. I'm only expecting one or two $5-$6 buys before we reach the end game, but Rebuild will shuffle them back in quickly enough that they could get me an extra $8 hand. I'll hold off on Estates until the very end to maximize how many Duchies I can rebuild.
---------- SM.SM: turn 10 ----------
SM.SM - plays Rebuild
SM.SM - names Province
SM.SM - reveals Copper, Silver, Copper, Copper, Duchy
SM.SM - discards: Copper, Silver, Copper, Copper
SM.SM - trashes Duchy
SM.SM - gains Province
SM.SM - plays Rebuild
SM.SM - names Province
SM.SM - shuffles deck
SM.SM - reveals Copper, Copper, Copper, Rebuild, Copper, Duchy
SM.SM - discards: Copper, Copper, Copper, Rebuild, Copper
SM.SM - trashes Duchy
SM.SM - gains Province
SM.SM - plays 1 Copper
SM.SM - plays Spoils
SM.SM - buys Courtyard
SM.SM - gains Courtyard
SM.SM - draws Spoils, Courtyard, Copper, Bandit Camp, CourtyardSM.SM catches a nice draw: two Rebuilds and his only Estate. His first Rebuild is certain to hit a Duchy and naming Province makes his second Rebuild certain too.
I don't like trading a Spoils for a Courtyard here. He has neither the money density nor the villages to justify it.
---------- Andrew Iannaccone: turn 11 ----------
Andrew Iannaccone - plays Courtyard
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Duchy, Rebuild, Copper
Andrew Iannaccone - places Rebuild on top of deck
Andrew Iannaccone - plays 3 Silver, 2 Copper
Andrew Iannaccone - buys Province
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Province
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Rebuild, Copper, Copper, Duchy, CopperI catch an even nicer draw. $8 for a Province and I'm back to a 9-VP lead with only 3 Provinces left.
---------- SM.SM: turn 11 ----------
SM.SM - plays Bandit Camp
SM.SM - draws Silver
SM.SM - gains Spoils
SM.SM - plays Courtyard
SM.SM - draws Province, Silver, Nomad Camp
SM.SM - places Courtyard on top of deck
SM.SM - plays Nomad Camp
SM.SM - plays 2 Silver, 1 Copper
SM.SM - plays Spoils
SM.SM - buys Province
SM.SM - gains Province
SM.SM - buys Estate
SM.SM - gains Estate
SM.SM - draws Courtyard, Copper, Duchy
SM.SM - shuffles deck
SM.SM - draws Copper, RebuildAnd SM.SM counters with a Province and an Estate too! This game is ending way faster than I had expected... 4 Provinces gained in the last 1.5 turns.
---------- Andrew Iannaccone: turn 12 ----------
Andrew Iannaccone - plays Rebuild
Andrew Iannaccone - names Estate
Andrew Iannaccone - reveals Copper, Courtyard, Silver, Province
Andrew Iannaccone - discards: Copper, Courtyard, Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - trashes Province
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Province
Andrew Iannaccone - plays 3 Copper
Andrew Iannaccone - buys Estate
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Estate
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Rebuild, Copper, Estate, Province
Andrew Iannaccone - shuffles deck
Andrew Iannaccone - draws SilverI'm down to a 2-VP lead with 2 Provinces left. No time for Gold and Embassies now. This game is going to be settled by Rebuild searches and Estates.
It's a tough call whether to name Estate or Province here. It's definitely time for some VP math. With my 2-VP lead, the plausible outcomes that give me the win are:
- I trash both remaining Provinces
- SM.SM and I each Rebuild a Duchy
- SM.SM and I each buy a Province
- SM.SM buys a Province while I rebuild a Duchy and get 2 Estates ahead
- SM.SM rebuilds a Duchy while I trash a Province and get 2 Estates ahead
SM.SM can buy Estates at least as quickly as I can, so events #4 and #5 are out. Events #2 and #3 are possible, but they require two somewhat unlikely events to coincide. Event #1 is probably the most likely way for me to win.
Right now I have 2 Provinces, 1 Duchy, and 1 Estate ahead of me in my shuffle, so:
- Naming Province gives me a 1/2 chance of hitting a Duchy. If that happens, he'll need to buy a Province to win, but if I hit my Estate, I'll have wasted the Rebuild.
- Naming Estate gives me a 1/3 chance to hit my Duchy, but I'll be certain to remove a Province from the Pile one way or another. He'll win if he can buy or rebuild into the last Province, but otherwise I win with my next Rebuild.
My intuition tells me that the extra 1/6 chance of hitting a Duchy doesn't matter as much as an extra 2/3 chance of trashing a Province. Event #1 is the most likely winning scenario, so it's the one I should bet on.
Some explicit calculation could do a better job, but we're already well past how much analysis I can do in an actual game. Working out the winning scenarios and roughly estimating their odds is pretty much my limit.
I name Estate and my Rebuild finds a Province. I buy an Estate that probably won't help but certainly can't hurt.
---------- SM.SM: turn 12 ----------
SM.SM - plays Rebuild
SM.SM - names Province
SM.SM - reveals Copper, Copper, Nomad Camp, Province, Silver, Estate
SM.SM - discards: Copper, Copper, Nomad Camp, Province, Silver
SM.SM - trashes Estate
SM.SM - gains Estate
SM.SM - plays Courtyard
SM.SM - draws Courtyard, Rebuild, Copper
SM.SM - places Rebuild on top of deck
SM.SM - plays 3 Copper
SM.SM - buys Estate
SM.SM - gains Estate
SM.SM - draws Rebuild, Courtyard, Silver, Copper, SpoilsLucky me! SM.SM draws his only Duchy (see T11 cleanup). I don't know it during the game, but his Rebuild is doomed. He's at the top of his shuffle, so his next one is probably doomed too.
---------- Andrew Iannaccone: turn 13 ----------
Andrew Iannaccone - plays Rebuild
Andrew Iannaccone - names Estate
Andrew Iannaccone - reveals Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - trashes Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Province
Andrew Iannaccone - plays 1 Copper, 1 Silver
Andrew Iannaccone - buys Estate
Andrew Iannaccone - gains Estate
Andrew Iannaccone - draws Courtyard, Copper, Estate, Province, ProvinceI've drawn last Rebuild I needed. Naming Estate guarantees the win, but my Rebuild finds a Duchy anyway. I give him an "A" for effort.
------------ Game Over ------------
Andrew Iannaccone - cards: 2 Courtyard, 2 Rebuild, 7 Copper,
4 Silver, 4 Province, 3 Estate, 1 Duchy
Andrew Iannaccone - total victory points: 30
Andrew Iannaccone - turns: 13
SM.SM - cards: 3 Rebuild, 3 Courtyard, 1 Nomad Camp, 1 Bandit Camp,
7 Copper, 2 Silver, 1 Spoils, 3 Province, 3 Estate, 1 Duchy
SM.SM - total victory points: 24
SM.SM - turns: 12Comments and questions are welcome, particularly on strategic points. I plan to annotate a few more Rebuild mirrors, so let me know if you'd like me to use one of yours.