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Messages - Witherweaver

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5426
Mafia Game Threads / Re: The "QT issue"
« on: February 03, 2016, 11:26:34 am »
What hundreds of QTs are you faking?

There's the personal QT you are either given by the mod or you created yourself.  That's it.  No one, and I mean no one, is creating hundreds of QTs a game for their own use.

You are faking the VT QT, the Cop QT, the Doctor QT, the Jailkeeper QT, the 1-shot Bulletproof QT, the Roleblocker QT, the Vigilante QT, and another QT for each of the possible fake claims you might want to use at some point during the game. If you don't do that, you are playing suboptimally on purpose, and at that point, you might as well not play at all.

Really, you could make the same argument that to play optimally as scum you have to be planting possible hints in the thread for all these scenarios as you're playing.  That is, actually, more difficult and more work, I think.

5427
Mafia Game Threads / Re: The "QT issue"
« on: February 03, 2016, 11:19:05 am »
I have also, in the past, written posts in emails to myself or notepad for the purpose of posting them later, by literal copy and paste.  There is nothing in the rules that prevents this, and I don't think there should be.

The issue I could see with the QT is it's something given by the mod that the mod can see; there is a slight gray area with "mod communication".  For example, my first post that QT was something like "I'm thinking of doing something crazy this game".  Was it directed at the mod, or to the general aether?  It could have easily been "Hey, Yuma, I'm thinking of doing something crazy this game".

You could have the rule be something like, you can't post anything from any medium of open communication (including QTs), but you can compile messages ahead of time just for yourself and copy them in (e.g., notepad, email to self).

5428
Mafia Game Threads / Re: The "QT issue"
« on: February 03, 2016, 11:14:19 am »
I should point out that in that game, neither Egor (town) nor RR (scum) posted anything of content in their personal QT.  I somewhat anticipated this, but I still asked them to post anyway.  This wasn't only for the purpose of seeing what they put in their QT (it may or may not have helped), but it was also something from which I could gauge reactions.

5429
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)
« on: February 02, 2016, 01:33:01 pm »
I don't feel so guilty about the SS lynch yesterday.  I mean, the argument is that he wouldn't play that badly as scum, but why would he has town?  His claim really came off as more desperate to me; it looked like he was grasping at straws.

I agree that the probability arguments were pretty bad, but I wanted to lynch him without that. 

But grats to EFHW for correctly analyzing RR; that's something I cannot seem to do.

because I do strange things as town for doing strange things as town because I wouldn't do them as scum

but yeah, I think I have at least 90% of the blame for my mislynch

Yeah, I kind of thought scum!you decided to try to play that up. 

5430
Mafia Game Threads / Re: M75: Cupcake Mafia (Day 1)
« on: February 02, 2016, 12:43:23 pm »
Vote: EgorK

5431
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)
« on: February 02, 2016, 12:16:23 pm »
Mind blown regarding EFHW/lio.

Wait, what?  I thought EFHW was, like, in her early 20's.

5432
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)
« on: February 02, 2016, 12:15:13 pm »
Yeah but I watched you under the mistaken belief you were a vig and scum was kinda forced to kill you, which they weren't because they knew you wer elikely lying. So you did cost me a shot there.

Mostly I'm trying to pass the responsibility of my numerous mistakes about the setup on to you. Hope you don't mind.

Right, well.. they weren't supposed to know I was lying!

5433
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)
« on: February 02, 2016, 11:57:15 am »
My QT : http://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/s8mrMikThEG

Congrats WW, that was another tough lylo, I kept going back and forth.

I'd feel sad that you got two lylos right in a row and no MVPs, but then I remembered you fakeclaimed Vig as VT, and I feel fine about it. Still think that was a terrible idea (looks like scum completely ignored it and I made many bad decisions based on it, which is on me but still).

EFHW being able to read RR is something to keep in mind, because I still have no idea what made him different here than Marvel Heroes.

Haha.  I guess I did take one shot from scum, so there's that.  Though I also took a shot from you :/

I've basically posted mine, but here it is:

http://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/mpFbKwbSerE9m

Oh I was wrong here, Teproc Watched me, not Tracked me.  Well, it did get scum to use a shot for Shot Changer, and use BP, though I guess that's part of JOAT and didn't cost much. 

5434
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)
« on: February 02, 2016, 11:36:22 am »
Thanks yuma.  Kudos to EgorK for playing so towny, too.

So was the math right?  Did the scenario with 5% chance of happening happen, or was there a flaw in the assumptions?

I read RR as scum when his self-attacks started feeling exaggerated.  I really thought the voting pattern would convince everyone, I was surprised when he wasn't lynched right away.

It depends what you mean by the scenario.  The scenario of getting exactly our setup {Watcher, Rolecop, Roleblocker, Roleblocker, Cop} is very small, but that's not the correct analysis to figure out if Egor/SS were lying or not.

5435
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)
« on: February 02, 2016, 11:22:36 am »
Haha, best speccy quote:

Quote
I'm glad claiming roleblocker has been more common than claiming VT this game

5436
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)
« on: February 02, 2016, 11:17:38 am »
Lots of math talk in the speccy.  24% is not wrong at all; that was the a priori chance we had 5 PRs, which is what we were calculating.  Taking into account that we had a Cop flip, however, does reduce that.  (Which I didn't do.)

The issue with Egor's calculation is it makes no difference between lying!him and truthing!him scenarios whether Watcher, Rolecop, and Roleblocker were those three roles or any roles in {4, 5, ..., 10}. 

5437
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)
« on: February 02, 2016, 11:06:04 am »
Also sorry about making the last day take really long, but I really was quite busy.  Was out of town Thursday and Friday, and moved into a new apartment on Saturday. 

5438
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)
« on: February 02, 2016, 10:56:57 am »
I know my endgame was horrible, I'm pretty sure I talked about that in my Mafia QT. I guess I should've night killed WW and taken my chances...?
PPE

The only thing going for you there is the "RR would have killed EFHW if he was scum" WIFOM, which may have worked for you.  But it's tough.  I think you made the right call there.

5439
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)
« on: February 02, 2016, 10:55:37 am »
RR gets a losers consolation MVP. He would have been the MVP had WW chosen the other way. He was able to maintain his meta pretty well throughout this game. I think the end game could have used some work, but coming from a guy who has lost like 6 games at mylo as scum I can't really offer any advice.

I tried pretty hard to be objective in my reread of RR.  Honestly a few times over the last week I was just going to say 'screw it' and vote RR, but I stopped myself.  The big thing I wanted to check is that Egor's PR claim and actions around it and interactions with Teproc weren't (likely to be) faked.

5440
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)
« on: February 02, 2016, 10:52:12 am »
RR gets a losers consolation MVP. He would have been the MVP had WW chosen the other way. He was able to maintain his meta pretty well throughout this game. I think the end game could have used some work, but coming from a guy who has lost like 6 games at mylo as scum I can't really offer any advice.

Yeah, but I thought he actually played it well.  But not claiming how strong of a result he actually had, he forced Xerxes into making a mistake.  Then he was certain. 

5441
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)
« on: February 02, 2016, 10:51:06 am »
I did hammer all scum in this game, so there's that. 

5442
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)
« on: February 02, 2016, 10:50:03 am »
My QT : http://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/s8mrMikThEG

Congrats WW, that was another tough lylo, I kept going back and forth.

I'd feel sad that you got two lylos right in a row and no MVPs, but then I remembered you fakeclaimed Vig as VT, and I feel fine about it. Still think that was a terrible idea (looks like scum completely ignored it and I made many bad decisions based on it, which is on me but still).

EFHW being able to read RR is something to keep in mind, because I still have no idea what made him different here than Marvel Heroes.

Haha.  I guess I did take one shot from scum, so there's that.  Though I also took a shot from you :/

I've basically posted mine, but here it is:

http://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/mpFbKwbSerE9m

5443
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)
« on: February 02, 2016, 10:48:54 am »
Here's mine: http://www.quicktopic.com/52/H/JRPXCZJXSSz

I don't really agree with what Yuma said in there regarding your play.  I didn't even start to read Day 2 until you were already hammered, but I got a pretty strong sense you were telling the truth.  And though self-voting/self-hammering is not great, it did give us a the votes to analyze for later days.

5444
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)
« on: February 02, 2016, 10:42:14 am »
I don't feel so guilty about the SS lynch yesterday.  I mean, the argument is that he wouldn't play that badly as scum, but why would he has town?  His claim really came off as more desperate to me; it looked like he was grasping at straws.

I agree that the probability arguments were pretty bad, but I wanted to lynch him without that. 

But grats to EFHW for correctly analyzing RR; that's something I cannot seem to do. 

5445
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Game Over)
« on: February 02, 2016, 10:34:57 am »
Hooray.

5446
Feedback / Re: Changing names
« on: February 02, 2016, 08:38:55 am »
So can I change mine to WW?

5447
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day6)
« on: February 02, 2016, 07:04:28 am »
Oh good. 

5448
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day6)
« on: February 02, 2016, 02:49:55 am »
So sorry if I got it wrong. 

5449
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day6)
« on: February 02, 2016, 02:49:31 am »
I had typed up some night kill analysis on what who is alive indicates, and what each person would have done as scum.  But, really, it'ms mostly WIFOM.   Instead I'm just going to

Vote: Roadrunner

I cannot justify any other decision. 

5450
Mafia Game Threads / Re: Mafia 74 - X-Shots 2 - Apocalypse Now! (Day6)
« on: February 02, 2016, 02:46:40 am »
Egor, though, doesn't really have much content.  Not like he did a reread either.  This one post:

I'm town.

Egor, do you think there is a chance I'm scum?

Chance? Yes, until the moment you flip/mod confirmed. Do I think you are last scum? Currently I am pretty sure RR is, but this exact your post make me reluctant vote right away

points towards town to me.  I think scum is more likely to buddy here than to keep up the charade that I could be scum.

scum!Egor could just be stalling; RR ends up voting and confirming me as town before Egor says much substantial.


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