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Messages - Witherweaver

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26
The gauntlet has indeed been thrown down.

And then picked up, and thrown down again, because the original throwing may have not conveyed the appropriate sense of challenge. And then adjusted because the placement of the thrown gauntlet on the ground did not appropriately capture the gravity of the situation. And then it was wondered, just how likely was it for the gauntlet to land on the ground in this way? Was this configuration any less likely than any other configuration? And then followed a long journey into gauntlet symmetries...

27
Dominion: Nocturne Previews / Re: Another awful thread about nothing
« on: November 09, 2017, 09:54:41 am »
Is "synergy" ambiguous?

28
General Discussion / Re: TV shows
« on: November 08, 2017, 11:01:07 pm »
Also, I just spotted, Season 2 Episode 2, during the group therapy session with Winters, a game of Dominion can be seen among some other board games in the background.

29
General Discussion / Re: TV shows
« on: November 08, 2017, 10:55:41 pm »
Chance Season 2 has started. I've just watched the first couple episodes. Anyone else watching this? Season 1 was great.

30
Dominion: Nocturne Previews / Re: Bonus Preview #2: Faithful Hound
« on: November 08, 2017, 06:06:59 pm »
I really like how derpy Faithful Hound is.

31
General Discussion / Re: Random Stuff Part III
« on: November 08, 2017, 05:09:24 pm »
Notably, this conversation is on topic.

32
General Discussion / Re: Random Stuff Part III
« on: November 08, 2017, 05:04:56 pm »
Is the problem with the word "pattern" rather than, say, "structure"? Something which is random can have an underlying structure which you can use to make predictions. I roll a d6, I'm not going to predict that the roll is 13. I draw my opening hand in Dominion, I know that on a typical board there are only 4 different hands I might see and two of them are more likely than the other two. I look at the stock market today, I can take a guess at where it will be tomorrow. I can never be 100% certain about the outcome of any of those events, but I know *something* about them that lets me make predictions, and if I observe such events a lot of times then, on average, I know what those observations will look like.

I'm with your thinking on this. I'm not sure I'm following Donald's point.
You gave an example of randomness having a pattern, but were actually providing the pattern and just adding noise to it that didn't eliminate it. It wasn't a pattern in randomness at all.

But the random variable has a probability distribution function, which is what I'm considering as the pattern. Taking a bunch of samples was just a way to visualize it.

33
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Male and female cards (again)
« on: November 08, 2017, 10:05:41 am »
No comment on the general gender issue, I feel the same way about all hrethgir.

I will note that all the "Witch" cards (Witch, Sea Hag, Young Witch, Soothsayer, Swamp Hag) are female, with the exception of Familiar, which appears to be male, and Mountebank. I'm counting a "Witch" card to be one that explicitly has the mechanic of giving other players curses and is an attack, disagree if you wish.

That said, I'm surprised that a "Warlock" hasn't made it into Dominion yet. I'd like to see something like that, perhaps in conjunction with some female witch apprentices maybe.

A Warlock would give out 1.266 curses when you played it.

34
General Discussion / Re: Random Stuff Part III
« on: November 08, 2017, 08:23:42 am »
Is the problem with the word "pattern" rather than, say, "structure"? Something which is random can have an underlying structure which you can use to make predictions. I roll a d6, I'm not going to predict that the roll is 13. I draw my opening hand in Dominion, I know that on a typical board there are only 4 different hands I might see and two of them are more likely than the other two. I look at the stock market today, I can take a guess at where it will be tomorrow. I can never be 100% certain about the outcome of any of those events, but I know *something* about them that lets me make predictions, and if I observe such events a lot of times then, on average, I know what those observations will look like.

I'm with your thinking on this. I'm not sure I'm following Donald's point.

35
General Discussion / Re: Random Stuff Part III
« on: November 07, 2017, 08:41:47 pm »
Then I guess with that point of view, I don't know what "random" means.
It means unpredictable.

If you roll a die, you get some number from 1 to 6. You don't know what it will be until you roll it. It's random.

If you add up the numbers from 1 to 6 and divide the total by 6, you get 3.5. There's nothing random about that. It's always the same answer.

If you roll a zillion dice, add up the results and divide the total by a zillion, you will get something very close to 3.5. By rolling so many dice we average out the randomness and are left with the original pattern.

It's the same with the bell curve, just harder to see.

But you can make predictions; they just have uncertainty.  You know how likely you are to get each value. If you roll a weighted d6, those probabilities change. Taking averages is one way to get an idea of what those probabilities are.

36
General Discussion / Re: Random Stuff Part III
« on: November 07, 2017, 08:16:36 pm »
The flat line is again a pattern that we have provided - the randomness has nothing to do with it.

I mean this doesn't seem right. The flat line is fundamentally a property of the die roll. We define it by taking expectations,, but it's still a property of the variable itself.

Edit: I guess 'define by taking expectations' is not correct. I should say define through an integral with respect to the probability measure.

37
General Discussion / Re: Random Stuff Part III
« on: November 07, 2017, 08:07:32 pm »
Then I guess with that point of view, I don't know what "random" means.

38
General Discussion / Re: Random Stuff Part III
« on: November 07, 2017, 09:04:27 am »
So here's a thought.. you want to put a design on your wall, so you make a grid of squares (say odd number of columns), and alternate coloring in one square (the same color for all) and skipping the next, starting at the top left and returning to below the first one for the second row, and so on. So we have a pattern (checkered).

On another wall, do the same thing but at each square, flip a coin to decide whether or not it should be colored.

Do we consider the second case to be without a pattern? There is also one case where the two walls are identical, so does the pattern lie in the end result or in the design?

39
General Discussion / Re: Random Stuff Part III
« on: November 07, 2017, 08:51:59 am »
Well try this.  Roll 2d6 and add the sum, record it.  Do this 5000 times and plot the results.  I bet you'll see a pattern.
Take the same set of die rolls. Instead of adding the dice, take six times the first die, plus the second die. Huh, now the pattern is a flat line. What happened?

It sounds like you're giving an example of a pattern found in randomness. What you're actually giving an example of is a pattern found in a pattern. The randomness is superimposed, and you have enough samples that it averages out to not disturbing the pattern you provided. Which was, "how often does each sum occur when adding two numbers from 1 to 6."

The flat line would be a pattern, too, inasmuch as the sum distribution was. I considered using the 1d6 example.

So the distribution itself is not random. Random variables obey one, though. It seems a bit arbitrary whether we call that pattern in randomness or randomness superimposed on a pattern. I consider it the former (like ConMan).

40
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Teaching Dominion to young children?
« on: November 06, 2017, 11:47:34 pm »
Kirian was referring to his kids. Reference the post your picture thread

He's far too young to have kids....

41
General Discussion / Re: Random Stuff Part III
« on: November 06, 2017, 10:57:43 pm »
Well try this.  Roll 2d6 and add the sum, record it.  Do this 5000 times and plot the results.  I bet you'll see a pattern.

42
General Discussion / Re: Random Stuff Part III
« on: November 06, 2017, 08:53:35 pm »
Random is not the same as without pattern.

43
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Teaching Dominion to young children?
« on: November 06, 2017, 12:20:06 pm »
Ain't nobody got time to read the entire thread!

44
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Teaching Dominion to young children?
« on: November 06, 2017, 11:21:23 am »
I think I started at 7 (?).  Basically, so long as they can read, they can play.

I didn't realize you were so young!

45
Dominion: Nocturne Previews / Re: What did we get wrong before?
« on: November 03, 2017, 07:28:39 pm »
My personal predictions on these Nocturne cards:

They will be good when they're good, and bad when they're bad, and okay when they're neither.

46
Dominion: Nocturne Previews / Re: What did we get wrong before?
« on: November 03, 2017, 06:50:54 pm »
In before 'hunting party gets increasingly worse when stacked'.

Edit: Correct quote uses 'progressively'.

47
General Discussion / Re: TV shows
« on: November 02, 2017, 01:29:08 pm »
Though I do agree if I was the showrunners I would have centered Dustin’s coming of age arc around the good and bad that was caused by raising dart instead of the how to get girls arc. You could have kept the cool mentor/mentee stuff between Steve and Dustin but have Dustin voice concern over dangering his friends and Steve could offer a “well did you mean to hurt your friends” and give a sometimes we make mistakes but what matters is your intention, and some times bad things happen for the greater good. Then have that conversation pay off when dart finally “spares” them so to speak and although Dustin made a mistake in ended up helping them because his intentions were pure.

The hair conversation on the tracks was one of my favorite parts.

48
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Dominion Nocturne: Night Cards PSA
« on: November 02, 2017, 12:40:02 pm »
With all the new types of cards in Nocturne, I'm seeing some serious synergy with Courtier, specifically Werewolf.

Don't try to court a Werewolf. It will end badly.

49
Dominion General Discussion / Re: What do you forget IRL?
« on: October 31, 2017, 05:37:09 pm »
I forget people's names. I don't really take note when they tell me their name, I think because I'm too concerned about what social niceties demand I do when I meet a new person, so I'm very focused on my own actions and not on what they're saying.

50
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Dominion Nocturne: Night Cards PSA
« on: October 31, 2017, 12:43:24 pm »
Peddler: This will never come into play as far as I know because Night phase is after but there ya go. You don't get a cost decrease for playing a Night card.
It's also important to remember that Night phase isn't Buy phase so Peddler will cost 8 for Devil's Workshop.

And if you Gain Villa (like through Vampire), you don't return to your Action phase.

Though I'm sure someone brought that up here or elsewhere.

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