Player 1: 85.256%
Player 2: 82.14356%
Player 3: 73.1234%
Player 4: 66.232093%
Player 5: 65.4342111%
Player 6: 62.2313%
Player 7: 55.25162%
Player 8: 34.65235462%
Player 9: 31.2524673%
Player 10: 22.46562342%
Player 11: 9.243536%
Player 12: 1.3573%
Where the percentages are the chance they are lying. Just do that at the start of each game, lynch from the top of the list, probably hit all scum before running out of mislynches, right?
That's what I understand to be their point: If the math is correct, reads and feelings do not matter.
Well, if those were the percentages, then you could pretty much just do that. The problem is that you won't get percentages like that. Instead, the vast majority of the time, you will get percentages that are close enough to the 1/4 that every player already has anyway that it would only be a very marginal factor in determining who is the best lynch.
Reads and feelings do matter. If someone has, say, a 40% chance of lying but a very consistent town narrative while someone else has a 10% chance of lying but has done something that questionably shows that he doesn't have the information that he's claiming to have or has information that he has claimed not to have or that he's playing against the win con he has claimed to have, it might be correct to lynch the latter player if the former player's town narrative makes him ~1/2 times as likely to be lying as he otherwise would and the latter player's scumminess makes him ~3 times as likely to be lying.
However, if someone has a 40% chance of lying while someone else has a 3% chance of lying, you would have to read the latter person as being 13 times as likely to be scum as the former person to just make up for the mathematical odds. That's, like, the kind of read you can only have when a claimed Mason has voted for the other claimed Mason, or other similar practically-confirmed-scum situation. And sure, I would lynch the claimed Masons in that case, but I wouldn't lynch them only because one of them has been slightly scummier than the 40% chance of lying person.
