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Messages - ehunt

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1326
ok, sounds like my theory is crap on the one hand, but on the other hand, seems like O is obvscum, unless repetition does indeed happen (which i am not sold on).

1327
wait, WHAT? GLOOBLE'S ORIGINAL CARD WAS HAREM?

vote: O

1328
ok, lame.

1329
I am the third (and final) "mostly vanilla townie." (Assuming Morgrim is telling the truth - and I am almost sure that he is.) My card is the Great Hall. I am saying this not to encourage others to massclaim (although I'm starting to think a massclaim may just win town the game in a few days). I have already revealed the totality of my role. I am saying this to explain how I knew to build my theory. Count the cheap (costing less than 4) intrigue cards and count Morgrim's numbers and I believe it adds up.

I believe this means me, cuzz, dsell, and morgrim are a network of four confirmed town. I also think O is town because he has a fantastic role and he tied it to an expensive card, which nobody counterclaimed. It will take five nights to kill us all, and I think we can easily win the game before that, especially since O is a vig and perhaps there's a doctor out there who can help him (or WIFOM the mafia and not help him, or WIFOM with one of the five of us, or...).

My theory doesn't explain how TheMunch got a card from Cornucopia or why Frisk was neutral. (Note that "scout" = "tracker" though. A tracker with a neutral win-con... that's about as good a role as... Scout.)

1330
I'm also quite certain that O is town. Young Nick I am less sure of.

the approximate power of a role is correlated with the approximate power of the dominion card in a way that matches prices. also, i'm pretty sure scum will be attack cards.

in particular, i believe there is only one mafia goon and the card he/she is holding is Swindler.

1331
cuzz - i have some stuff to say, which is waiting only on this answer from you. i need to say it before the day ends because i may be NKed. if you refuse to give the answer, that sucks a lot, but please at least commit to refusing to giving the answer so that i can go ahead and say what i need to say today instead of waiting till right before the deadline. i really don't see how you can be suspicious of me asking this question since it gives away very little new information (everyone knows that you can read descriptions but don't have control over them, it's just a question of whether you think this makes you a mostly vanilla townie or not), but if you are not going to answer i'd like you to commit to not answering (i would strongly prefer that you just answer)

Not VT. Nor mostly VT.

ok. cuzz is telling the truth, and is town.

1332
cuzz - i have some stuff to say, which is waiting only on this answer from you. i need to say it before the day ends because i may be NKed. if you refuse to give the answer, that sucks a lot, but please at least commit to refusing to giving the answer so that i can go ahead and say what i need to say today instead of waiting till right before the deadline. i really don't see how you can be suspicious of me asking this question since it gives away very little new information (everyone knows that you can read descriptions but don't have control over them, it's just a question of whether you think this makes you a mostly vanilla townie or not), but if you are not going to answer i'd like you to commit to not answering (i would strongly prefer that you just answer)

1333
(found the answer to my last question..... aaannnd forgot to copy it to clipboard. but it was a couple (irl) weeks ago).

1334
@ ehunt: why?

And while ehunt is fishing for approximately all of my PM, can someone remind me if he's among the group of probtowns for any reason, or is he just acting like it?

@ watno from a while back:

Third bit of info didn't seem informative enough to be worth sharing but maybe someone else can get more out of it than I did. It basically says that someone has a role related to a previous role they had in another game that they didn't get to make much use of because they died early in that game. It also said that this person was new-ish compared to most other players. It was either Eevee, cayvie, or ehunt.

Vote: YoungNick. As I said before I think I got his description, and it does mention cards. But there was maybe a sinister tone to it that is hard to describe without direct quoting, and I think he definitely could be scum.

Cayvie, didn't you say at some point that you had strong reason to believe YoungNick is town? Did you ever elaborate on that?

because we have an exact count of the almost vanilla townies and when you have an exact count of things scumhunting is a lot easier. i think it's harmless. you've already claimed, i am just asking if you think you are an "almost vanilla townie" or not, but no other information. i only want your answer and no one else's. i have a mega-theory that i'm happy with but i need your answer to this question to confirm it. On the off chance that you are scum, it does me no good whatsoever for you to answer this question after I announce the megatheory. Again I believe you (and O) are town.

Where did you disclose before that you had (potentially) read YN's description? That's quite helpful.

1335
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Venting about my luck
« on: November 04, 2012, 02:24:16 pm »
this is going to sound like it's in jest but i mean it seriously - one other thing that helps is a good ragequit. if you had quit this game at chapel silver silver silver copper, you'd still be mad, but you'd have a lot less to be mad about! i love ragequitting.

i disagree with whoever said not to open chapel, definitely open chapel here.

1336
just realized cuzz is v/la so i acquit him for not answering my question - but, answer my question when you get back!

1337
bump - still want the answer to my new question to cuzz.

yuma - if true, your theory would acquit YN. i sorta doubt that robz would intentionally create an all-noob scumteam though, especially since robz is probably more in the "talk about the old games a lot" club than anyone except galzria. it also seems incredibly imbalanced to have this in addition to all the investigative roles.

sure, which is why I don't think that it should affect our avenue of scum hunting right now. It was merely something I had noticed and thought worth mentioning, mostly because if it does end up being accurate, I'll look like a genius for picking it up early. If it isn't an accurate assessment I'll look like a paranoid conspiracy theorist.

At the time this game was formed, and I got my PM, I had never been mafia.  So your theory is incorrect, as I'm not mafia.

You're confusing the yuma conspiracy theory with the converse conspiracy theory. He's saying all mafia are new, not all new people are mafia. Latter would be imba for mafia.

1338
bump - still want the answer to my new question to cuzz.

yuma - if true, your theory would acquit YN. i sorta doubt that robz would intentionally create an all-noob scumteam though, especially since robz is probably more in the "talk about the old games a lot" club than anyone except galzria. it also seems incredibly imbalanced to have this in addition to all the investigative roles.

1339
Dominion Articles / Re: Beggar
« on: November 03, 2012, 04:03:07 pm »
Quote
Gardens may be Beggars most powerful combo. Unlike just about any other board, it may be optimal to buy a straight Victory card on turn 1 or 2 with the opening Gardens/Beggar. This allows you to get a jump on the Gardens pile to almost guarantee an even split of the Gardens, if not a split in your favor. According to simulations performed by DStu, just buying Gardens / (Estate when Gardens are low) / Beggar / Copper wins against a basic Workshop / Gardens bot 80% of the time. When your opponent is not rushing the Gardens, you should buy Duchies once the Gardens are gone to help 3-pile and get more VP. This wins against a DoubleJack bot 75% of the time.

Just some notes here. First, buying Duchies is also a good idea agsints WS/Gardens, this wins 100% of the time (samplesize 2000).
I think Beggars/Gardens works not because it is faster, but because it has a faster start, and has more options later in the game (e.g. buying Duchies). So against another Gardens strategy, you win because of your start (you win the split), and because you can do better once the Gardens are gone. It can't force a fast end of the game, but does quite well against BigMoneys as it scores high points when it has time.
I think it has more problems than WS/Gardens against engines.  When there is a strong potential mega-turn engine, you give them a lot of time to just build it up and finish with all the Provinces and maybe some Duchies. Because you need at least 25 turns to finish the game. OK, you should have more than half of the points (exclude: Goons) earlier, but an engine that fires aroung T15-18 should beat this.

 can you elaborate on buying duchies beats workshop/gardens, maybe in a separate thread? i have never heard this before!

1340
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Familiar vs Witch?
« on: November 03, 2012, 01:25:02 pm »
I think if transmute is the absolute only trasher on the board, it might be worth going familiar over witch. In this situation you're basically gambling: you will definitely lose the game if you get don't get a familiar on the first shuffle and your opponent gets a witch, but if you do get the familiar you will be in very good shape once you pick up a transmute on the next shuffle.

1341
also, ehunt, do you really want him to say "no" if it's true?

Yeah, I don't see what we lose - he's already claimed that he gets access to descriptions but can't know exactly what name they're attached to. I just want to know if he thinks he's a mostly vanilla townie, based on his role pm, given that we know that's a thing in this game and theorels analysis.

1342
cuzz: are you a "mostly vanilla townie" in the precise sense that was detailed by morgrim and expanded upon by theorel? "i don't know" is a fine answer; don't speculate, only say if you are pretty sure.

@yuma: maybe i am already? i have flip flopped between O, YN, and no vote enough times to make mitt romney look like robz. anyway i am not ready for this day to be over.

1343
ok, so, I'm pretty sure O and Cuzz are town. There is a minor mystery that's unresolved.

1344
Dominion General Discussion / optimal play?
« on: November 02, 2012, 04:37:42 pm »
it's a two player game with only money, the standard green cards, duke, and silk road. what are your buy preferences?

1345
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Venting about my luck
« on: November 02, 2012, 04:23:59 pm »
I have a serious addiction problem Dominionwise, but one rule that really helps me is that I have to step away from the computer when I get angry. When I quit dominion for several months, I came back with a "one game or two a day" mentality (which is long obsolete, but that's another story). I found that playing fewer games made me a lot less angry at the ones where I got unlucky.

1346
ok, i have a theory about the cards,part of which is speculative, part of which is almost surely correct.

i emphatically oppose any more claimage of any sort, except that I would like a full card claim from cuzz . I don't think this is that risky since he already has claimed some sort of power role. Does anyone disagree?

1347
Stop claiming! I figured some stuff out. Phone post- back in five minutes.

1348
(for those who didn't read MIV, DSell, who was an ordinary Mafia Goon, claimed one-shot vig when he got to L - 1. the town decided to lynch jotheonah instead of Dsell under the theory that DSell could prove he was vig by killing axxle2, who was the third highest suspect. In fact nobody died that night (mafia's kill, which wasn't axxle2, was doctored; for reasons i don't understand the sk decided to kill axxle2 but was roleblocked by mafia). the town blamed this, at least initially, on axxle2, not on DSell, and wound up losing a couple game days later without ever lynching DSell.

The point is, "if x happens tonight, then we will definitely do y tomorrow" commitments very rarely pan out and "if we force O to do this, it will definitely happen if he is town" is not true. We learn a lot if O manages to make an extra death happen but almost nothing if he doesn't. And even if it works out, the cure could well be worse than the disease - we confirm O's townitude by losing an extra town; then mafia just kills O the next night (though perhaps there is a doctor). I think we should just conditionally believe him until there is contrary evidence.

1349
with a bit more consensus i'd be happy to.

CARD-CLAIM. How much more consensus do you need?

If we really think the best thing is for O to shoot tonight, then I think it might be time to make certain info public (to avoid a misfire). If the other people who have that info agree, please indicate that. If you disagree, don't respond to this comment at all.

My concern with the "test" plan is that we get a repeat of the DSell situation in MIV. If there's not an extra death, we won't know if we're supposed to suspect O or whom we told O to kill, or both, or neither. Based on MIV's lessons, my inclination would be to go after O if this happened, BUT...

if O is town, then mafia knows that most people are going to think like this, so if mafia has any roleblocking capacity left (and my feeling is that they've just got to, in a town this size with so many town-power roles, although perhaps Grujah's power accounted for all their roleblockage) they are going to block him. And then we will be filled with unpleasantries.

I think the better strategy is to believe the claim until a contrary claim falls down. But I do want the card name.

1350
I think we all agree that it's very likely that one of O and YN is scum. So if O is town and has a vigshot, it must be YN who's scum. So O should vig him. If it's the other way round and O is the scum of the two, then he probably doesn't have the vig-shot and even if he does, he wouldn't use it on who we tell him to, especially if that target is scum.
So, when telling O who to kill, our premise for choosing the target must be that he is town, so YN must be scum, so that's the obvious choice.
Also if YN checks if Os cardclaim is true, what does this get us if we believe one of them is scum anyway?

I don't agree with the votes on shraeye for being suspicious of Axxle, probably he just forgot to take what O said into consideration. However, i don't agree with shraeyes vote either, since sparky has the wine. While it wouldnt be out of the game if we kill sparky, if we don't, it will still give us information about sparky tomorrow, and we shouldn't lynch him today if we know we're gonna have more info about him tomorrow.

I really don't like theorel's last post. He summarizes claims, takes random premises and "calculates" the chance that people are scum.  What makes you believe there's 2-3 liars in the group of people who have claimed? Also why can't there be more scum in there, telling the trurh about their ability?
Why don't you even say who you believe the liars are?
Also, Cuzz claimed to have reason to believe he knows YN description, and it doesn't say anything about his alignment in #2656. SO I'd assume it's an active ability. Btw, there should be a third information you have, Cuzz, what is that?

@ehunt Where did joth claim some ability? Are you refering to his last post?

no, early in the day he had some "don't ask me how i got this information" information.

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