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Dominion General Discussion / A rule of thumb on three-piling
« on: May 01, 2012, 05:07:52 pm »
If you are winning, don't make buys just to set yourself up for a three-pile on a future turn.
I've made this mistake too many times. "I'm ahead by a lot, I've played a bunch of wharves this turn, and I'm up by 4 points - let's just buy 4 estates [pearl divers] and end this for good next turn."
Don't do it. Yes, the probable result is that you'll win the game in a turn. But two things can happen: your opponent can get unrealistically lucky with his junk deck and terrible strategy, and buy those last four estates and a province for himself, or your four wharves can draw all the bad cards in your deck, giving your opponent a turn to catch up. Unlikely? Yes, but you're exchanging a definite slow win (which a province buy would give you) for a very likely fast win. People who complain about luck often make this mistake.
This is just a rule of thumb. Below is an exception, I'm sure there are more. (I don't count it as an exception when setting up the three-piling is also significantly helping your score relative to anything else you could buy, e.g., if you've played a bunch of goons.)
Exceptional scenario - your opponent's deck will become overwhelmingly dominant in a few turns, but has no chance of becoming so in the next turn or two. Maybe your opponent just bought a potion and will be able to possess you regularly once he gets possession. Or maybe his scrying pool deck is all set to draw itself every turn but doesn't have enough money yet.
I've made this mistake too many times. "I'm ahead by a lot, I've played a bunch of wharves this turn, and I'm up by 4 points - let's just buy 4 estates [pearl divers] and end this for good next turn."
Don't do it. Yes, the probable result is that you'll win the game in a turn. But two things can happen: your opponent can get unrealistically lucky with his junk deck and terrible strategy, and buy those last four estates and a province for himself, or your four wharves can draw all the bad cards in your deck, giving your opponent a turn to catch up. Unlikely? Yes, but you're exchanging a definite slow win (which a province buy would give you) for a very likely fast win. People who complain about luck often make this mistake.
This is just a rule of thumb. Below is an exception, I'm sure there are more. (I don't count it as an exception when setting up the three-piling is also significantly helping your score relative to anything else you could buy, e.g., if you've played a bunch of goons.)
Exceptional scenario - your opponent's deck will become overwhelmingly dominant in a few turns, but has no chance of becoming so in the next turn or two. Maybe your opponent just bought a potion and will be able to possess you regularly once he gets possession. Or maybe his scrying pool deck is all set to draw itself every turn but doesn't have enough money yet.