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Messages - ipofanes

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1826
Other Games / Re: Favorite non-Dominon Game Tournament (Nominations)
« on: January 17, 2013, 06:47:52 am »
Go
Through the Ages
1830
Monad
Terra Mystica
Cyclades
Power Grid
Tigris & Euphrates
Bridge
Ursuppe

1827
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Interview with Donald X.
« on: January 16, 2013, 11:49:19 am »
Most games are of the sort that someone should be able to trailblaze multiple paths to victory that cannot be blocked by everyone else.
If most games are two player or have two teams or are co-ops or N-against-1 or are decisionless then hey, no politics. Multiplayer games with interaction and decisions always have politics, and not every designer tries to mute the politics.


I didn't say "no politics". Cyclades, for instance, has a lot of decisions inflicting harm to a specific opponent (being overbid can be cruel). Yet politics does not dominate the game to an extent where you could as well play Mafia.

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Risk is not unique, it is typical of an era.

Definitely, but I didn't have the games in mind that didn't stand the test of time when I said "most games".

1828
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Interview with Donald X.
« on: January 16, 2013, 10:36:37 am »
Name, reaction, and artwork of Horse Traders synergise very well. I find this card very thematic.

Bazaar should have been a Village. Every card which looks like a market should net a Buy.
Bazaar has that name because there was unused art from the main set that needed to be used - specifically, unused art for Market.

It's really an exception to quite workable mnemonics the card names offer. A positive example is using verbs for cards that trash to get something better ("mine" can also be a verb). In German they use words ending with "-bau". One more adantage to your putting a cap on expansions: You have more verbs in English than we have words ending on "-bau".

I have bought Bazaar more than once only to find out later that it doesn't offer the +buy (well less often than I have mistaken Mine for Mint -- "hey, where's all my Silver?"). More so as Festival is Jahrmarkt in German.


1829
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Interview with Donald X.
« on: January 16, 2013, 10:28:22 am »
Richard Garfield argues that all political games are the same; he likes politics but doesn't need more games that have it. I don't remember how he actually argues this, but it seems to me that if convincing another player to do things good for both of you is more useful than whatever else you're doing with the components, then that's the game, the rest is window dressing.

At least you can get away with designing an unbalanced game and rely on players' diplomacy to even it out. The races in Cosmic Encounter are not quite balanced but it doesn't matter much.

I think I get the gist of Richard Garfield's argument here but I have seen few games in which diplomacy is so dominant (the Werewolves/Mafia type of games come to mind but they don't deny that it's all about persuading). Most games are of the sort that someone should be able to trailblaze multiple paths to victory that cannot be blocked by everyone else. Your pet peeve Risk is not of the sort, that's why it takes ages to complete.

1830
Help! / Re: Don't know what to do here
« on: January 16, 2013, 06:49:03 am »
This could probably beat an Amb opening (assuming Estates; it could definitely beat Amb assuming Shelters).

I was assuming estates; the tactic would be harder to pull off if you get only $1 out of Salvaging and if HP keeps hitting Hovels.

But I agree with Silver-Salvager opening.

1831
Help! / Re: Don't know what to do here
« on: January 16, 2013, 05:38:27 am »
Kingdom : Native Village, Ambassador, Market Square, Scheme, Death Cart, Salvager, Smithy, Treasure Map, Hunting Party, Mine

Out of my head: Open Market Square/Salvager, then $3 --> Silver, $4 --> Salvager, $5-$7 --> Hunting Party, $8 --> Province. Lots of Hunting Parties to connect your opening cards, Salvage Gold or Salvager. One downside is that you cannot really use the +buy except after opportunistic trash Province actions.

1832
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Interview with Donald X.
« on: January 16, 2013, 05:08:35 am »
Name, reaction, and artwork of Horse Traders synergise very well. I find this card very thematic.

Bazaar should have been a Village. Every card which looks like a market should net a Buy.

1833
Help! / Re: How did I fall behind in this Golem/Conspirator game?
« on: January 16, 2013, 03:16:48 am »
I think it's either thinning with Upgrades into a Scrying Pool engine in which Conspirators will shine, or sifting with Minions in which case the Golems will play a more important role. The discard penalty for Horse Traders should hurt less in the Scrying Pool approach, barring the cases where you can net an action with Golem (first discard with Horse Traders, then re-draw with Minion soulds sweet enough).

Then again, Horse Traders is the elite counter to Minion so maybe Minion/Golem is not so hot.

1834
Help! / Re: How did I fall behind in this Golem/Conspirator game?
« on: January 15, 2013, 10:54:33 am »
To my taste you bought Horse Traders at a time the engine hadn't quite started rolling so the extra buy was not that impedient. My guess is that Minions were quite invaluable in order to sift for Golems.

1835
Dominion Articles / Re: Death Cart
« on: January 15, 2013, 10:30:50 am »
I would seldom buy Death Cart, unless there was a good combo like Trader or Watchtower in the kingdom.
"In the kingdom" wouldn't cut it, I presume you mean "in hand", since you want to use the reaction part of the cards you mentioned?

1836
General Discussion / Re: Probability paradoxes
« on: January 15, 2013, 04:01:17 am »
I think the biggest reason he's celebrated now is because he strongly defended his models and their prediction of Obama's relatively easy win, compared to a large number of more conservative (in both senses of the word) commentators who seemed to be trying to drum up excitement by suggesting it was going to be neck-and-neck. And, yes, he guessed all of the states and got the margins of error pretty close, too.

I think it means the margins of actual votes, though you technically can say something about the margins of errors too (estimate coverage probabilities).

1837
Other Games / Re: Through the Ages online
« on: January 15, 2013, 03:58:17 am »
Three players hits the sweet spot for me, especially face-to-face but also over bg-o.

1838
Other Games / Re: Through the Ages online
« on: January 14, 2013, 06:48:35 am »
Ok, 4 player game hosted.
Maybe I should mention the name is f.DStrategy.5 and the passowrd is Dominion
Done after about a week, next game f.DStrategy.6 hosted with same password.
/in, game has started with Galzria and Tables.

1839
General Discussion / Re: Probability paradoxes
« on: January 14, 2013, 03:19:06 am »
Things not to discuss on the internet:

Religion, politics, probability, and whether .99999.... = 1

Why not move this thread over to sex, politics, religion etc.?

To get some religion into that, I could put up some strawman position in favour of Frequentism vs. Bayesianism. Believe me, it's murkier than any vi vs emacs discussions you've witnessed. As for sex, maybe someone could elaborate on the goats theme.

1840
General Discussion / Re: Probability paradoxes
« on: January 11, 2013, 11:51:51 pm »
In a frequentist setting: Depends if your null hypothesis is directional. If it was P(heads) <= 0.5, I could immediately reject it at the alpha = 0.51 level.
In a Bayesian setting: If you have a non-degenerate prior symmetric around P(heads) = 0.5 the first toss would lead to an asymmetric posterior in either direction. How is this not evidence?
For sure using jargon is not going to be how to communicate clearly here, even if the jargon seems precise to you. I am not looking for the xkcd comic that explains those terms.

Sorry; I was referring to DStu and switching levels of terminology here.

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For example if you flip tails, you know the coin doesn't always flip heads. That's something right there.

That's just about what I meant. There are situations when you want to know such things.


1841
General Discussion / Re: Probability paradoxes
« on: January 11, 2013, 11:46:12 pm »
But that imbalance, trickery, or whatnot might be biased either direction, and we have no a priori evidence that it will be in one direction or the other.  Even factoring in the possibility of an unbalanced coin, our expectation value for heads is 0.5 on each flip, without performing any flips.  Coming up heads on the first flip does not suddenly change our expectation value; it's, again, just one data point.

In a frequentist setting: Depends if your null hypothesis is directional. If it was P(heads) <= 0.5, I could immediately reject it at the alpha = 0.51 level.
In a Bayesian setting: If you have a non-degenerate prior symmetric around P(heads) = 0.5 the first toss would lead to an asymmetric posterior in either direction. How is this not evidence?


I think there's a disconnect here between what statisticians, or at least you, mean by "evidence" and what scientists mean by "evidence." 

Yes, I was hesitant to use the term "evidence" here but it was used by WW. "Information" might be a better term.

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For those of us in the latter group, something numerical isn't evidence until it's significant.  One coin flip is not significant no matter what kind of terminology you try to apply to it.


As I mentioned above, it can be significant depending on direction and alpha level you choose. An alpha level of 0.51 can be even useful sometimes (to decide whether to quit an experiment for futility).

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It's as if I were back in my genetics lab, and claimed GeneA and GeneB were linked (i.e., near each other on the same chromosome) based on the fact that one person had mutations in both.

Maybe statistical terminology means something different at that basic level, but I really don't think you'd have seen Nate Silver making predictions about the outcome of the Presidential race based on any single poll...

I don't even know who Nate Silver is.

1842
General Discussion / Re: Probability paradoxes
« on: January 11, 2013, 11:41:20 am »
In a Bayesian setting: If you have a non-degenerate prior symmetric around P(heads) = 0.5 the first toss would lead to an asymmetric posterior in either direction. How is this not evidence?

But as far as I see our prior on "is the coin rigged" does not change, it just changes the "in which way is the coin rigged" prior. Edit: Assuming symmetric prior.

Edit2: So assuming you have some 99.9% prior on "not rigged", the statement "the first heads does not change this prior" is correct in normal day use, because it does not really matter if some of your 0.05% for "rigged for tails" moves to "heads".

The prior of "is the coin rigged" has a support of two points only. I don't see where the notion of symmetry fits in.   

1843
General Discussion / Re: Probability paradoxes
« on: January 11, 2013, 10:27:34 am »
But that imbalance, trickery, or whatnot might be biased either direction, and we have no a priori evidence that it will be in one direction or the other.  Even factoring in the possibility of an unbalanced coin, our expectation value for heads is 0.5 on each flip, without performing any flips.  Coming up heads on the first flip does not suddenly change our expectation value; it's, again, just one data point.

In a frequentist setting: Depends if your null hypothesis is directional. If it was P(heads) <= 0.5, I could immediately reject it at the alpha = 0.51 level.
In a Bayesian setting: If you have a non-degenerate prior symmetric around P(heads) = 0.5 the first toss would lead to an asymmetric posterior in either direction. How is this not evidence?

1844
General Discussion / Re: Probability paradoxes
« on: January 11, 2013, 10:18:52 am »
But it IS some amount of evidence of a somewhat rigged (and by somewhat rigged, I don't necessarily mean 100-0) coin. I don't care if it's in the middle of a zillion flips or if it's the only ten flips you do. Every heads flip is evidence that it comes up heads more often, and every tails flip is evidence it comes up tails. Now, sure, if you flip it a million times and have ONE instance of ten heads in a row, then you shouldn't ignore the other 9,999,990 flips, but this is a total strawman - nobody's going to do that. And even in this case, those ten flips are still evidence that it's "rigged", just you have a lot of other evidence you need to look at too.
Dude. I can consider all the flips at once and see what they say. I don't have to look at just one flip. The fact that it's different if I look at just one flip does not stop me from looking at all of them. The fact that it's different if I consider all of them vs. if I consider a subset is the part I like.

Apparently WW is wrong here and somebody is going to do that. Looking at subsets selected on the merits of the data they contain while ignoring the rest is normally a fallacy. Doing it knowing the selection process may still yield some information about the nature of the random process though. For instance you can pick a window of a predefined length, move it over the whole sequence of coin tosses and take the window with the maximum number of heads. This approach would tell you something about the homogeneity (lack of association between subsequent tosses) of the process, but it's considerably more complicated than estimating the bias of the coin by the relative frequency of heads in the whole process. Obviously, this approach does not "ignore the rest" as the information that this is the window with most heads tells us something about the reast of the sequence. Is this closer to what you are having in mind?

1845
Variants and Fan Cards / Re: What Kind of Card would fill a Void?
« on: January 11, 2013, 10:03:10 am »
Peddler was the first example for a discount, so that is not exactly new. Davio was referring to voluntary overbuy for a benefit. I don't see how this cannot happen, as there is still a value assigned to a card.

1846
In my experience, market square is pretty weak (much weaker than tunnel), but even, I wouldn't rank it in this part of the list.
Forager, on the other side, is one of the best trashers of the game. I would say Forager > Steward > Loan > Lookout > Trade route.

Maybe we can synthesize and say that Market Square is decent with Forager in hand. Or with other non-terminal trashers that allow me to use both the reaction and action part of the card.

1847
You'll have 1 corruption, is that okay? spreadsheet shows after production currently)


1848
Qvist scores 0 culture, 1 science, and produces 3 food (4-1 consumption) and 3 resources (3-0 corruption). He then draws 0 military cards.

Huh? Sorry, not my business, but: Haven't you asked Qvist before if he'd tolerate 1 corruption?

1849
Variants and Fan Cards / Re: What Kind of Card would fill a Void?
« on: January 11, 2013, 04:13:25 am »
Well I don't think I'd want the increased price to persist through your opponent's turn.

Well, I certainly wouldn't want the markup to persist only through my turn! (Barring edge cases involving Bishop/Apprentice)

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To me, it's fundamentally important that Copper costs $0, since it means that no matter is done, at least you can buy a Copper.   Then even under relentless militia attacks, three Copper buys Silver, three Silver buys Gold,  and 1xSilver + 2xGold buys Province (three Gold buys Platinum, and 2xGold + Plat buys a Colony).  If you up the price of Copper for opponents, then you open the door to pinning.
Certainly. I didn't say I'd want this void to be filled. But there are options to put a limit to the pin, like M:tG's cumulative upkeep.

1850
Variants and Fan Cards / Re: What Kind of Card would fill a Void?
« on: January 10, 2013, 10:30:08 am »
A card which increases prices.

A card which cares about the top of the discard pile.
I'd like to see a card which increases prices, but how do you make it exciting?

Well, you give it a nice on-play effect, like gain a Duchy, and you have the choice to discard it during any of your Action Phase.

I wonder if such a card makes Garden strategies less attractive because you cannot just collect cards left and right, or Provinces less attainable.

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