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Messages - cherdano

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26
General Discussion / Re: Fantasy (American) football?
« on: October 04, 2012, 08:23:28 pm »
My favorite basketball writer is Zach Lowe (The point forward, about to move to grantland i think). Always very thoughtful (though he gets lost in CBA salary cap and trade rules a bit too often).

27
Dominion Isotropic / Re: The Doug Z/Isotropic Appreciation Thread
« on: August 12, 2012, 02:12:19 pm »
I would never have gotten started to play dominion without isotropic.

28
Bazar:Festival ::
Lab:Market

How can Festival be ranked higher than Bazaar?? I don't think the watchtower/library combo is enough to justify that.

29
In fact, it's the other way round. If your average treasure value is $2, then venture behaves exactly like gold. Except that it speeds up reshuffling, which means you will draw the victory cards you buy earlier, and so BM decks with venture are less resilient to greening, not more.
This is the same fallacy as the theorem. When you reshuffle, you put cards into your draw pile, not into your hand. Without cards that skip other cards, every card in your draw pile eventually ends up in your hand, so these are often the same. But with Venture, this is not the case. Cards in your draw pile have a chance (proportional to the amount of Ventures you have) to never end up in your hand.

Doesn't matter. If my average treasure value is $2, then I can compute the expected value of my hand just by
expected number of golds in my hand x 3 +
expected number of treasures in my hand x 3 +
expected number of silvers in my hand x 2 +
expected number of coppers in my hand.

I don't even have to think about skipping cards etc.

30
I've never fully understood the claim that venture lets you green earlier. Most (but not all) of the time venture is worse than gold in terms of average yield, granted, adding green cards doesn't affect that value but neither does it affect the value of, for example, gold/merchant ship/silver/hoard. Now granted greening does adversely affect cards that draw, and many (nearly all) attacks are significantly less damaging to an opponent in a greened deck. But the statement that (non-ridiculously chained ventures) significantly help with greening is no different than the statement that high value treasure helps with greening.
In fact, it's the other way round. If your average treasure value is $2, then venture behaves exactly like gold. Except that it speeds up reshuffling, which means you will draw the victory cards you buy earlier, and so BM decks with venture are less resilient to greening, not more.

31
It gives you 1+ [the average value of the rest of your treasures]. Roughly, I think this would be greater than 3 when (number silvers + 2*number of golds) > (number of coppers). So if you've trashed no coppers, it'll be after you have 3 or 4 silvers and 2 golds.

That's not right - you need number of golds > number of coppers. (Easy check: when you find a silver, you break even, so you can ignore them.)
So without copper trashing and without platinums, venture will basically never beat gold.

32
I think Trader is underrated by a couple of spots in this list. The reaction is just so strong in cursing games, and "flood your games with silver" is a very strong Big Money strategy. After you traded your estates into couples of silvers, the goal isn't to trade silvers for more silvers, the goal is to trade one or two $4/$5 cards and be resilient to greening.

33
Dominion Articles / Re: Masquerade
« on: July 02, 2012, 10:25:12 am »
And with the militia/masquerade, are you saying that keeping a "junk" card is what should be done, or simply what IS done.  For example, assuming your opponent is at the start of their deck after a reshuffle and plays "Village, Militia" and you know there is a chance of a masquerade, and your hand is something like Gold-Gold-Silver-Copper-Copper, are you saying to keep a copper and forgo a chance of a province, or is keeping GGS and potentially passing a silver worth the risk.  Obviously it depends on board, situation, etc. but in general.
I am not sure it's even worth making a general recommendation, other than "you really have to follow your opponent's deck in this situation". I.e., if he is going to draw his entire deck this turn, you better keep that junk card. If, on the other hand, he has already played the masquerade since the last reshuffle, you should of course keep that silver.
It's rather frequent that one or the other is so much better that an "average" recommendation seems rather useless.

34
Dominion Articles / Re: Masquerade
« on: July 02, 2012, 10:22:10 am »
I think double-masquerade is a useful strategy more often that the article suggests. For example, I think double-masquerade typically beats masquerade+curser. Other than that, it can be a good combination of speedup+trashing when you want to run an engine.

35
General Discussion / Re: Euro 2012
« on: July 01, 2012, 05:29:38 pm »
UGH, im willing to bet Italy-Spain will be a snore fest
I hope you didn't put any money on this bet  ;)

36
Dominion Articles / Re: Scrying Pool
« on: July 01, 2012, 09:58:55 am »
In addition, it increases your buying power so quickly that you might have these crucial "buy strong $5 AND scrying pool" turns as early as after the second reshuffle.
Apothecary+scrying pool+plus buy is an extremely strong combo.

37
Game Reports / Re: Royal Seal shines
« on: June 30, 2012, 10:10:05 am »
I think Royal Seal is undervalued.

38
Dominion Videos and Streams / Re: Video Etiquette?
« on: June 30, 2012, 06:51:32 am »
The players can always respond with comments.

If watching the video is going to hurt your feelings, you could just not watch the video.  The better option is to be more rational.  The feedback is either wrong and should be discarded, or right and should be contemplated and perhaps cause some future play adjustments.

Of course, I'd still honor his wishes, even if they are crazy, just like I let people disable my point counter.

To be fair though, in the few videos by WW that I saw, his comments were more condescending to his opponents than, for example, what he or others would post in this forum after going through the logs.

39
Dominion General Discussion / Re: Double Terminal Opening on 4/3
« on: June 29, 2012, 11:44:14 am »
Trader-x. Again, the collusion is fine.

And of course that can work two ways:
- use the trader to trash x, or
- x is a trasher/black market, trash your treasures/use them with BM, then use $0 to buy a silver.

40
Dominion General Discussion / Re: With my Dominion Time Machine...
« on: June 29, 2012, 09:17:45 am »
I like Chapel for $3, because this causes 5/2 openers to either spend 5 on Chapel or take the good 5 first (Witch, Mountebank) and get the Chapel later (or not at all). I think this is more fair for the unlucky 4/3 opener who stands more of a chance against the 5/2s this way.
This would make it more fair when there is a superduper $5 card, but I think on all other kingdom's it would just add chapel to 5/2-opening's nightmares, and make it too unfair in the other direction. The silver in a tyipcal silver/chapel opening is quite important (especially since you may spend two of the next four turns not buying anything.

41
But masquerade immediately gets better when your opponents is getting rid of his worst cards. And meanwhile, you are getting ahead in the crucial $5 buys (market!). In addition, you can skip some trash with warehouse (which of course will also help getting peddlers a bit later). I don't think it's right to get any ambassador in game #2.

42
Introductions / Re: Ithaca
« on: June 24, 2012, 09:15:50 pm »
I mean, depends on what information you're trying to conceal. I'm used to playing card games where my opponents don't get to know my cards. My partners don't either, but based on playing with me a lot, they can figure out what situations I'm likely to do what in. My gameplay changes a lot based on the score, and it also changes a lot based on how I read my opponents. Now, there are a couple people I've played enough with and talked to about my reasoning enough that they know how I'm going to react to these different situations reasonably well. But it's a lot of feel, and it's going to be difficult to draft up on a card. Furthermore, the big thing is that I'd have to explain what I think my partner means by his bids to my opponents. Like, I know his subtleties, so I know that at this point of the game, he's much more likely to be bluffing, or he's playing more aggressively, or he's now calling for me to do X. But, I really don't see why I should have to tell you that. And maybe that means I don't want to play bridge. But what I'm describing is also not 'degenerate', as you say.

You are talking as if bridge players had not considered this. I am fairly sure this is how bridge was played in the old days, and it was a much less interesting game.

Of course, you are also missing how subtle partnership communication in bridge is. There is still a lot of advantage for you to know your partner's tendencies, since (in the bidding) it's more important for you to know partner's cards than for your opponents. Nevertheless, you have to keep a balance between giving a lot of information during the bidding (to allow partner to place the right contract) and concealing your hand (to make finding the right lead or defense more difficult for opponents). On defense there is a lot of skill involved in knowing when it's important for partner to know your cards (signal honestly) or for declarer (signal "dishonestly" or randomly).

In any case, bridge is interesting precisely because you always have some information about the opponents' hands, but typically not enough to be completely sure. That's what makes falsecards possible, or makes the decision whether to go for a technical line, or to hope for a misdefense.

But anyway, these are all technicalities. The main difference is that you play bridge with a partner, and you have to work a lot on your partnership to be on the same wavelength in as many situations as possible.

43
Dominion Articles / Re: Shanty Town
« on: June 23, 2012, 10:47:13 am »
Any card that lets you reorganize your hand/top of the deck can give a boost to shanty town. I am thinking of haven, courtyard in the presence of other villages (play a village+courtyard, draw shantytown - hide your terminal on the deck!), cartographer/scout/apothecary/navigator (have a shanty town in hand? put a non-action card at the top of the deck before playing your cantrip - etc.).

Your point 4) is particularly strong with any disappearing village (FV, Festival, native village), as they are giving you other benefits instead of potentially drawing another terminal into your deck that will collide with your shantytown.

It can also work well in engines with discard-for-benefit cards (Inn, Hamlet, Secret chamber to a lesser extent). You discard all but one of your shantytowns, play your shantytown and other engine draw, and you can still use the discarded shantytowns later.

Overall, though, the cases where you should get more than one or two shantytowns are fairly rare.

44
Help! / Re: Lab-Pawn-Apprentice beat by Pawn-Menagerie
« on: June 21, 2012, 08:57:54 am »
Menagerie is really strong on this board - Moneylender helps it a lot obviously, and then you have several strong $5s (Lab, Hunting Party, Apprentice, even the city is quite useful once you have a few pawns). I am fairly convinced that a menagerie engine is the strongest strategy on this kingdom.
In fact, I don't think your opponent played it every well - he should have gotten more menageries and made his deck more diverse early on (start buying pawns earlier, HP instead of Lab, apprentice early instead of the early city).

Regarding your play: most importantly, you should have gotten a YW. Early. Probably after the first reshuffle, or as the opening buy as eHalcyon suggests.

45
Dominion Articles / Re: Mine
« on: June 19, 2012, 07:45:57 pm »
The deciding factor whether Mine is worth buying is the speed of the game, relative to the size of your deck and your drawing power; in short, you should ask yourself how many more times you should expect to reshuffle before the end of the game.
In the next reshuffle after you bought Mine, it will add $1 to your buying power (barring platinums or other special treasure cards), as you are upgrading one treasure which you can use right away. In the second reshuffle, it will add $2 ($1 in the hand where you draw Mine, and another $1 in the hand where you draw the previously upgraded treasure). In the 3rd shuffle, it adds $3, etc.
So if expect just two or three more reshuffles, Mine fails the silver test rather drastically (money on the next shuffle is more important than money further down the road), and unless you can play it with Throne Room or King's Court, it will just take too long to ever beat gold. But if you can buy it reasonably early in a game that's either long (for example due to discarding attacks), or where you reshuffle frequently (maybe a Caravan/Lab stack, or you just built up a treasure-poor engine that is looking for a payload and won't be able to finish the game for a few more turns), it can be rather strong.


46
These are very different cards. The constructive purpose of HT is to get to $5 early and often without clogging your deck with silvers. The constructive purpose of Trader is to clog your deck with an infinite amount of silver so that your deck is resilient to aggressive greening.

Meanwhile, the reaction of HT is a good defense against discard attacks (and a great defense against Minions). The reaction of Trader is a great defense against cursers.

Why are we comparing these two cards? To summarize:
Quote
In general, how do you decide between Trader and Horse Trader to open?
It depends on the kingdom.

47
Dominion General Discussion / Re: THE Dominion Card List(s) 2.0
« on: June 19, 2012, 04:30:35 am »
Thanks for (re)doing these Qvist. FWIW I did enjoy your writeups last time around.

48
Dominion Articles / Re: Young Witch
« on: June 18, 2012, 03:53:40 am »
Reminds me of the game where my opponent complained about his bad luck because his YWs wer hitting my scheme every single time.

49
General Discussion / Re: Euro 2012
« on: June 17, 2012, 06:46:04 am »
In the same way Chelsea deserved to win the Champions League final, because they defended well, and were effective. In general (barring mistakes by the referee) the team that wins almost always deserves it, for all sufficiently good definitions of "deserve to win".

Soccer is inherently very random, just because it is decided by so few goals. If team A plays team B, and A will score 1.5 goals on averages versus B's 1.0 goals, then B will win occasionally. Even if teams A and B play equally well all the time.
So if B wins on one of those occasions, did B "deserve to win"? I didn't see the match Russia-Greece, but based on what I saw of the two teams before, I would have consider Russia the team A and Greece the team B. I would be very happy to bet on Russia in a rematch. Would you be willing to bet on Greece, based on the game you saw?


50
General Discussion / Re: Euro 2012
« on: June 17, 2012, 06:42:31 am »
Best comment on Greece (by a Spanish friend of mine, on facebook):
"I am not sure if being German I would like to play against Greece on Friday."

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